When will this shit end?

[Fuzzy Afro]

I’ve been number crunching and I could maybe get on board with a 6-week delay with the reopening happening on 2nd August:

 

- JCVI groups 1-9 (i.e. over 50’s) were jabbed by mid April so will be double jabbed by mid July. Add on a couple weeks to get the full protection and this should all but eliminate 99% of deaths even against the Delta variant.

 

- The younger groups should be single dosed by mid to late July so this gives time for the antibodies to kick in.

 

- Crucially, by not waiting to get the younger groups double jabbed you still allow for a semblance of a summer and don’t risk the wrath of scientists by reopening in September/October when respiratory viruses are starting to wangle the upper hand. 
 

2nd August is the absolute latest the government should go. Any later and Boris might as well resign and put freaks like Christina Pagel in charge of the country. 

[zahidf]

17 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

I’ve been number crunching and I could maybe get on board with a 6-week delay with the reopening happening on 2nd August:

 

- JCVI groups 1-9 (i.e. over 50’s) were jabbed by mid April so will be double jabbed by mid July. Add on a couple weeks to get the full protection and this should all but eliminate 99% of deaths even against the Delta variant.

 

- The younger groups should be single dosed by mid to late July so this gives time for the antibodies to kick in.

 

- Crucially, by not waiting to get the younger groups double jabbed you still allow for a semblance of a summer and don’t risk the wrath of scientists by reopening in September/October when respiratory viruses are starting to wangle the upper hand. 
 

2nd August is the absolute latest the government should go. Any later and Boris might as well resign and put freaks like Christina Pagel in charge of the country. 

It's not 12 weeks anymore though, it's 8 weeks. So 1-9 and over 50s could be done by second week July to allow a couple of extra weeks for protection.  

But as I said, June 21st should be the maximum

Edited June 3, 2021 by zahidf

[Fuzzy Afro]

5 minutes ago, zahidf said:

It's not 12 weeks anymore though, it's 8 weeks. So 1-9 and over 50s could be done by second week July to allow a couple of extra weeks for protection.  

But as I said, June 21st should be the maximum

I’m trying to offer something that the lockdown fans will agree to as a compromise. As I say though, I’m starting to worry that the cat is out the bag and life as we know it may never return to normal 😞 

[Yoghurt on a Stick]

3 hours ago, jimmillen said:

I just accidentally clicked on page 1 of this thread and wow, what innocent times that was 😂 If only we’d known…

Shout out to @Yoghurt on a Stick and @The Nal for the most accurate (i.e. gloomy & pessimistic) takes from the outset! 

Well it's in my blood, you see. I like a bit of gloomy, my dad liked a bit of gloomy, his dad before him liked a bit of gloomy. What a bunch of miserable old retards! 

Not really. Well, actually that's not for me to say. However, it did occur to me that you don't get rid of a new bastard virus in a hurry.

 

 

[zahidf]

19 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

I’m trying to offer something that the lockdown fans will agree to as a compromise. As I say though, I’m starting to worry that the cat is out the bag and life as we know it may never return to normal 😞 

Lockdown fans will never be satisfied. No point appealing to them

Once we get 1-9 double jabbed we open up. Nothing else makes sense really. 

[thewayiam]

11 hours ago, Ddiamondd said:

They'll move it 3-4 weeks, with the pretext of falling behind in vaccinations for the month of April. Priti's porous borders obviously won't be mentioned once.

I have a flicker of faith that things could be better come July 21st, or whenever the date is. As a 29-year-old, I'm still waiting for my jab slot to open — and they had made the roadmap with an eye to offering every over-18 in the country their first by June 21st. We have slipped behind and that will be the excuse to stall.

If they then postpone again, I think we're in for a 2011-flavoured summer all over again.

On Priti, I actually think her and Shrapp have been the most sensible spoken one's easily.

People have chosen not to have it too buy yes we have. Too much focus at one point on 2nd doses over first for me. In reality, where are a lot of your older first dose people going anyway compared to 2nd dose? I fully understand the need to fully vaccine the most vulnerable.

But we can't ignore an anti vaxxer either. I'm not calling them out etc, just saying it makes an impact.

11 hours ago, Ddiamondd said:

For what it's worth, the Euros starting next weekend is going to cause mass socialising and we all know what follows that.

People will be out to pubs and parks in droves, not to mention the many venues across the country UEFA have deemed a safe bet to host fans.

It's inevitable, but blaming people is a divide-and-rule move straight out the gov and redtop handbook. They are the ones who fucked this up by keeping flights pouring in. Don't fall for it.

To be honest the flight's from India without heavy quarantine consequences were blocked and closed a fair while back now.

10 hours ago, steviewevie said:

yeah, it's kind of weirdly personal....and whiffs of misogyny a bit.

Haha, I see the penny is finally dropping here. And yes, there is banter, and there is going too far.

 

9 hours ago, efcfanwirral said:

Ive said it time and again- the government have caused all of this with their 21st June nonsense. Had they not announced it people wouldn't be piling onto each other, or onto scientists who are being proved right. 

People wouldn't have booked holidays, events wouldn't have announced (and maybe got the financial help they'll eventually need instead of pressing ahead) People would be happy with the freedoms they have and not pining for things that have been promised that can't be fulfilled. 

Who honestly thinks there will be non socially distanced events in 8 weeks? And who can honestly say it ever felt realistic that they could happen this summer? 

But it can't be said foreign holidays weren't advised against with caution as they were. It was made well aware it was a risk.

It's going how we expected it to go but to say it was too depressing before. You were being a pessimist if so and just depressing.

Nope you were being a realist.

[steviewevie]

Nepal variant

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/03/nepal-covid-variant-does-it-exist-should-concerned

[MEGABOWL]

8 hours ago, steviewevie said:

There have been other pandemics

Not with the Scientific Data and Media presentation of that data we have now

[MEGABOWL]

7 hours ago, mike46 said:

I think this is a really interesting period of time and it’s one that is going to be very polarising. 
 

This is the first real moment that as a populous we have to accept that death exists. Every week over 400 people die behind a wheel, yet driving is so intrinsically part of our lifestyle we don’t question it.  Last year nearly 14,000 people died of pneumonia yet we don’t question what we could do to stop that. Heart disease has killed more people in the last 3 months than COVID, but I can go get fast food processed meat at any time. 
 

The fact of the matter is that as of today over 50% of the adult population are vaccinated. Almost all of the vulnerable are fully protected. Sure there’s what if’s, but at some point we have to accept deaths are going to happen and this isn’t going away.

 

don’t quite know what my point is here, but the next few weeks are going to be fascinating as I think a lot of people are going to have to have face up to their mortality 

Agreed. We’ve been living through a lot of serious history that will be closely studied in the last few years anyway but we’re reaching another peak.

[MEGABOWL]

8 hours ago, Rex2 said:

Whys everyone shitting rhemselves over a few thousand cases which is to be expected as we've opened up? Where's the evidence that this Indian variant is able to escape the vaccine? I don't worry about the the government anynore as much as I  worry about normal people fueling this perpetual shit show

It’s a fair point. Outside of threads like this and the Twitter noise that fuels them I hardly hear new variants or Vaccine escape mentioned. One friend did just moan about the news leading with ‘be scared of the new variant’ rather than ‘Vaccines work’ but that’s the first time it’s come up in days. And he’s a serious hypochondriac who was washing his groceries last year.

Any delay will be hugely unpopular and unexpected to many.

[steviewevie]

6 minutes ago, MEGABOWL said:

Any delay will be hugely unpopular and unexpected to many.

yes, it really will be....but that will be down to govt messaging and a few shit choices.

Anyway, we may just have to keep wearing masks and working from home for a bit longer (maybe I should tell my boss).

[MEGABOWL]

10 hours ago, crazyfool1 said:

control and elimination being 2 different things .... u still think never ? id say it is going to take maybe another 18month- 2 years to control .... eliminate at this stage no 

How do you define control? It’s quite conceivable there are always going to be new variants, as it’s a virus. So ‘control’ could be impossible.

Equally the longer it goes on the more the actual targets shift in the collective mind and the more people get used to restrictions. It gets harder to take that deep breath and reach for normal accepting that there will be cases and probably deaths. There will always be a reason not to.

[Ozanne]

Things aren’t totally bad, it’s always good to remember we are actually in a fairly decent position. 

 

[JoeyT]

Well I’ve just strapped myself in for another day on the covid rollercoaster 🙃

[steviewevie]

Neil Fergusson on R4 this morning. Thinks current estimate is delta variant 60% more transmissable than alpha....but there is uncertainty and could be from 30% to 100%.

[steviewevie]

Just now, JoeyT said:

Well I’ve just strapped myself in for another day on the covid rollercoaster 🙃

Yeah, it is like a rollercoaster...lots of optimistic stuff during the day and then latest data comes in and pisses on everyone's parade in the evening. We have another 10 days of this...and then maybe we'll know what's going to happen....maybe.

[Fuzzy Afro]

Some talk that 21st June could largely go ahead but face coverings and WFH could stay. I could live with that. 

[Chapple12345]

16 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Things aren’t totally bad, it’s always good to remember we are actually in a fairly decent position. 

 

I know bad news sells, but the media should really be focusing on this as well as the concerns, we're probably in the best position we've been in the last 18 months or so which is why I'm confident at worst they'll delay reopening as opposed to tightening rules up - also thank you for always pointing out Olivers opinions, he has a genuine voice of reason and will always explain the picture in a detailed but non-patronising way, him and the BBC's Fergus Walsh have been real godsends through the whole pandemic 

[JB15]

6 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Some talk that 21st June could largely go ahead but face coverings and WFH could stay. I could live with that. 

Personally, I’d keep face coverings on public transport and in supermarkets for a few more weeks post June 21st, as well as WFH where possible, and open up everything outdoors fully. 
 

Then, mid to late July, start opening up clubs, gig venues etc to get back to normal. 
 

Focus on the safer stuff outdoors, mitigate for the extra risk indoors, feels like a more sensible approach to keep onward momentum of opening up fully but having some caution with new variant. 

[steviewevie]

We can all speculate what restrictions will remain...but we don't know, the papers don't know, and I expect the government doesn't know but probably has several plans depending on how bad/good the data is on 14th...and maybe some plans are getting leaked/briefed by some who are pusing their preferred outcome.

[zahidf]

29 minutes ago, Chapple12345 said:

I know bad news sells, but the media should really be focusing on this as well as the concerns, we're probably in the best position we've been in the last 18 months or so which is why I'm confident at worst they'll delay reopening as opposed to tightening rules up - also thank you for always pointing out Olivers opinions, he has a genuine voice of reason and will always explain the picture in a detailed but non-patronising way, him and the BBC's Fergus Walsh have been real godsends through the whole pandemic 

Yeah i find Oliver Johnson to be straight down the middle to his credit

[zahidf]

36 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Neil Fergusson on R4 this morning. Thinks current estimate is delta variant 60% more transmissable than alpha....but there is uncertainty and could be from 30% to 100%.

Lol PHE literally said 50%

But i guess there is no way of knowing for sure

[mcshed]

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2279407-first-human-case-of-h10n3-bird-flu-strain-reported-in-china/

 

[Ryan1984]

46 minutes ago, Chapple12345 said:

I know bad news sells, but the media should really be focusing on this as well as the concerns, we're probably in the best position we've been in the last 18 months or so which is why I'm confident at worst they'll delay reopening as opposed to tightening rules up - also thank you for always pointing out Olivers opinions, he has a genuine voice of reason and will always explain the picture in a detailed but non-patronising way, him and the BBC's Fergus Walsh have been real godsends through the whole pandemic 

Hugh Pym, Health Editor at the BBC, has also been very good throughout.

[steviewevie]