When will this shit end?

[Chapple12345]

I do genuinely wonder what will happen if 21st isn't achieved politically, will the backbenchers stand for it or would they be moving to oust Johnson?

[zahidf]

Just now, Chapple12345 said:

I do genuinely wonder what will happen if 21st isn't achieved politically, will the backbenchers stand for it or would they be moving to oust Johnson?

I think a couple of weeks of extra jabs would be Ok.  Anything more and they won't stand for it.

[Ozanne]

1 minute ago, Chapple12345 said:

I do genuinely wonder what will happen if 21st isn't achieved politically, will the backbenchers stand for it or would they be moving to oust Johnson?

It's Teflon Johnson, he'll survive and manage to pass the blame onto someone (who wasn't involved at all).

[zahidf]

6 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

You've been saying what people will do for months now and it's not been the case. You are projecting; by 'people' you actually mean yourself.

You're saying  jabbed people will be ok with curtailing their freedoms for anti vaxxers? No chance 

[hodgey123]

2 minutes ago, BobWillis2 said:

The issue is that even if we wait until everyone has had both doses covid will still circulate at varying levels, the virus will continue to mutate and boosters will be an ongoing thing to counteract any reduced efficacy but it won’t be an instant catch all thing. 
Covid will exist for a long time, possibly forever, it will still put people in hospital and people will die from it. 
The conversations that are not being had are what level of death is acceptable. Whitty is the only one that’s been brave enough to put a number on it and he said 25,000 per year. 
Without knowing what level we can or will have to accept how can we properly asses the dangers of opening up while the vaccination rollout is still ongoing. We can’t, because we’d be  comparing a potential number of deaths against an ‘acceptable’ number that doesn’t exist because we aren’t having the right conversations. 

Yeah agree with this. I am feeling pretty down and hopeless for the future now, considering we had been doing so well and there is serious danger of us going backwards with this new variant.

[JoeyT]

2 minutes ago, Chapple12345 said:

I do genuinely wonder what will happen if 21st isn't achieved politically, will the backbenchers stand for it or would they be moving to oust Johnson?

If push comes to shove I could stomach an extension of our current stage for a few weeks (because from a personal point of view I don’t stand to gain anything from the next stage) but the idea of staying in it beyond then or even going backwards can get in the bin.

 

[ShakeyCrash]

6 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

how are wales doing ? still positive signs from them ?

No deaths reported for a week and cases still dropping (but concern that the Indian variant has had a cluster of cases in north Wales).  

Hospitalisation is going down after a quick uptick.

[ShakeyCrash]

So positive if it weren’t for this twat of a variant 😁

[Chapple12345]

3 minutes ago, zahidf said:

I think a couple of weeks of extra jabs would be Ok.  Anything more and they won't stand for it.

 

1 minute ago, JoeyT said:

If push comes to shove I could stomach an extension of our current stage for a few weeks (because from a personal point of view I don’t stand to gain anything from the next stage) but the idea of staying in it beyond then or even going backwards can get in the bin.

This is my thinking, if they said (for example) they would extend current measures for 2 more weeks to get to a certain amount of people vaccinated and then drop everything the other tories, and general public, are more likely to stick to it, anything more and I think there will be real trouble in both Westminster and nationwide 

[BobWillis2]

If they’re going to delay the roadmap they need to stand on that podium on the 14th and detail what level of hospital admissions and deaths are acceptable once everyone has had their second dose. 
Then they need to show in very detailed graphs and facts that proceeding with step 4 will put us above those levels. 

Anything less is not acceptable and will make it look like a political decision not a scientific one. 

Edited June 3, 2021 by BobWillis2

[topmarksbri]

3 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

If push comes to shove I could stomach an extension of our current stage for a few weeks (because from a personal point of view I don’t stand to gain anything from the next stage) but the idea of staying in it beyond then or even going backwards can get in the bin.

 

What would it take for you to accept that we should keep restrictions as they are or even roll back the relaxation? How many daily deaths/infections?

[Ozanne]

2 minutes ago, ShakeyCrash said:

So positive if it weren’t for this twat of a variant 😁

Is that what we are calling the PM now? 😉 

[Crazyfool01]

8 minutes ago, ShakeyCrash said:

No deaths reported for a week and cases still dropping (but concern that the Indian variant has had a cluster of cases in north Wales).  

Hospitalisation is going down after a quick uptick.

thanks and thanks @BobWillis2.... interested to see how cases go here as wales seem to be ahead of us ... can they keep india at bay 

[JoeyT]

5 minutes ago, topmarksbri said:

What would it take for you to accept that we should keep restrictions as they are or even roll back the relaxation? How many daily deaths/infections?

Keep them as they are for how long?

If we roll back any point from now on then I genuinely believe life won’t return to normal for years as we adapt in the worse way possible to every new variant which comes along.

There has to be a point (as others have said) where a line is drawn in the sand.

Numbers wise is a hard one.

[topmarksbri]

Just now, JoeyT said:

Keep them as they are for how long?

If we roll back any point from now on then I genuinely believe life won’t return to normal for years as we adapt in the worse way possible to every new variant which comes along.

There has to be a point (as others have said) where a line is drawn in the sand.

Numbers wise is a hard one.

Yeah, I wasn't trying to single you out or whatever, I just think it's an interesting question. I've got a lot of mates who basically have said hell or high water restrictions should be lifted on the 21st but there's got to be a kind of opposite line in the sand to what you're saying where the cost is too great. 

[ShakeyCrash]

6 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

thanks and thanks @BobWillis2.... interested to see how cases go here as wales seem to be ahead of us ... can they keep india at bay 

On first doses we are and also we double jabbed the most vulnerable first as well (by beginning of May - we are the red line).  Time will tell but it’s squeaky bum time. Truth is if this was the original COVID everything would be open. If it was the Kent one we would almost be there. Indian variant and the jury is out.

[BobWillis2]

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. We are not going to know for certain how well the vaccines work without returning to very very near normal. 

The best time to do this is the summer when the NHS is under the least amount of strain. 
You cannot wait to lift all restrictions going into the autumn when the usual seasonal respiratory viruses start to put pressure on the NHS because if it backfires we’re in a world of trouble. 

Its now or next year. 
 

 

Edited June 3, 2021 by BobWillis2

[zahidf]

Maybe we should all chill a little?

Some very important data on hospitalisations today.

Bolton hospital had new covid patients peak 25/05/21 and total covid patients peak 27/05/21 at about 30% of the all time peak.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhstrust&areaName=Bolton NHS Foundation Trust

East Lancs hospitals (the Blackburn / Hyndburn / Burnley / Pendle / Rosendale areas) are slowly increasing but look like they will peak at around 15% of the January peak.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhstrust&areaName=East Lancashire Hospitals NHS Trust

The Pennine hospitals (the Bury / Rochdale / Oldham) areas are pretty flat at around 5% of their December peak.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhstrust&areaName=Pennine Acute Hospitals NHS Trust

The Mid Yorks hospitals (which would cover the Dewsbury and Batley outbreak) is only slowly increasing and at around 5% of the December peak.

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhstrust&areaName=Mid Yorkshire Hospitals NHS Trust

And Bedford hospital has new patients and total patients now falling having peaked at around 8% of the January peak.

[zero000]

Still no rule of 6 for Wales indoors. Utterly depressing. 

[Rex2]

Whys everyone shitting rhemselves over a few thousand cases which is to be expected as we've opened up? Where's the evidence that this Indian variant is able to escape the vaccine? I don't worry about the the government anynore as much as I  worry about normal people fueling this perpetual shit show

Edited June 3, 2021 by Rex2

[zahidf]

Telegraph seems to be saying that current plans are for masks and WFH to stay post June 21st but distancing in the bin. 

[Ozanne]

2 minutes ago, Rex2 said:

Whys everyone shitting rhemselves over a few thousand cases which is to be expected as we've opened up? Where's the evidence that this Indian variant is able to escape the vaccine? I don't want about the the government. I sometimes worry about normal people fueling this perpetual shit show 

This is also what's causing worry amongst many people today

 

 

Increased risk of hospitalisation after 14 days which on top of knowing that 1 dose of the vaccine isn't as effective against the Delta variant has caused some alarm. Which is totally fair but it's also important to remember that we are in a much better position than back in the Winter and things shouldn't get that bad again.

[Rex2]

2 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

This is also what's causing worry amongst many people today

 

 

Increased risk of hospitalisation after 14 days which on top of knowing that 1 dose of the vaccine isn't as effective against the Delta variant has caused some alarm. Which is totally fair but it's also important to remember that we are in a much better position than back in the Winter and things shouldn't get that bad again.

So assuming the vulnerable are at this point protected with two doses, why is there talk of rolling back on the road map? I just don't understand it

[Ozanne]

2 minutes ago, Rex2 said:

So assuming the vulnerable are at this point protected with two doses, why is there talk of rolling back on the road map? I just don't understand it

There isn't talk of rolling it back, there's talk of delaying the final step. The reasons being that if this new variant which is more transmissible leads to increased risk of hospitalisation then as only 50% of adults have both doses it would seem prudent to keep restrictions as they are to get as many 2nd dosed up as we can.

[Chapple12345]

6 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

This is also what's causing worry amongst many people Which is totally fair but it's also important to remember that we are in a much better position than back in the Winter and things shouldn't get that bad again.

I don't think people expect sugar coating, but perhaps some reassurance from the CMO or JVT that we won't see an overrun NHS again would do the national morale some good. I know they can't guarantee it but I do worry some scientists seem to be undermining the vaccines and this is causing some panic amongst people, I think a couple more weeks and the data will be in a better place too