When will this shit end?

[Ozanne]

I think it's also important to remember that the various financial schemes are in place till September as well. They were extended for possibilities like this, where if we need to extend a portion of the roadmap then the businesses effected will still be able to get support.

[Fuzzy Afro]

1 minute ago, incident said:

I'm slightly confused - where did you see / how did you extrapolate a 67% transmission advantage into an R rate of 7.5? I'm struggling to join the dots.

 

The R number of the original Chinese variant was in the region of 3. Then the Kent variant came along and was roughly 60% more transmissible (R0 around 4.6) causing our devastating second wave in the UK. The Indian variant is in turn 67% more transmissible than this, suggesting R0 is around 7.5.

 

Note that R0 is the rate that the virus spreads in a completely non-immune, unvaccinated population with no restrictions in place at all. The actual R number is only slightly above 1 in the UK because:

 

- 75% of the adult population have antibodies 

 

- Whilst we aren’t in lockdown anymore, there are still some mid-level measures in place to keep the spread down. 

[zahidf]

17 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Yeah. Obviously I hope it’s wrong but the data today suggests a 67% transmission advantage. 

its from that times article? i havent seen anything to support that. And id be very surprised myself

[zahidf]

This bullshit all has to stop at some point. If the Covid death rate is ground down as low as it's likely to get (given that almost no-one is still banging the Zero Covid tambourine, and it's therefore generally accepted that we are going to have to live with it as an endemic disease,) and we also have a reasonable degree of confidence that getting rid of these remaining countermeasures will not lead to a major resurgence of serious illness and death, then that's the time to burn the security blanket and get on with a normal life.

Personally I reckon foreign travel restrictions will be around for a while, and masks may survive on public transport and in clinical settings, but I'm expecting and hoping all the rest of the rules to go in the dustbin where they belong next month. We ought not to be expected to spend half our lives walking around in gags, and having to decide which friends we can and cannot have dinner with, indefinitely.

 

Life is not risk free. Government is not about eliminating risk.
 

[Fuzzy Afro]

4 minutes ago, zahidf said:

its from that times article? i havent seen anything to support that. And id be very surprised myself

 

7 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Where you getting 67% from 

This is from the PHE data that is released today. Hopefully it’s just down to vaccine dodging in certain areas rather than an inherent transmission advantage, unless they’re suggesting India has already had 87.5% of the population infected/jabbed which is highly unlikely 

[zahidf]

Just now, Fuzzy Afro said:

 

This is from the PHE data that is released today. Hopefully it’s just down to vaccine dodging in certain areas rather than an inherent transmission advantage, unless they’re suggesting India has already had 87.5% of the population infected/jabbed which is highly unlikely 

thats isnt really what that data says. 

[Fuzzy Afro]

13 minutes ago, zahidf said:

thats isnt really what that data says. 

Oh really? I’ve seen that figure discussed by people I respect on twitter (I mean really good covid centrists like BristOliver and Declamare. Not fake SAGE type weirdos) 

[zahidf]

13 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Oh really? I’ve seen that figure discussed by people I respect on twitter (I mean really good covid centrists like BristOliver and Declamare. Not fake SAGE type weirdos) 

Ah I've seen it. It's only one report though. I wouldn't get too excited by it, could be any number of reasons.

[zahidf]

Indoor concerts VERY safe

 

[Fuzzy Afro]

5 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Indoor concerts VERY safe

 

Changed my mind. Eric is a top lad. 

[zahidf]

5 hours ago, Barry Fish said:

 

 

Links?

 

[Ozanne]

The proof is out there that Matt Hancock has lied to us all about testing patients going into Care Homes. 

[Rex2]

It's a non starter this argument. People were discharged from hospitals in open spaces where people are clinically vulnerable back into care homes where they can isolate, and where people aren't extremely unwell. If anything more funding should have been chucked at ensuring safety in care homes rather than increased testing capacity 

[Ozanne]

4 minutes ago, Rex2 said:

It's a non starter this argument. People were discharged from hospitals in open spaces where people are clinically vulnerable back into care homes where they can isolate, and where people aren't extremely unwell. If anything more funding should have been chucked at ensuring safety in care homes rather than increased testing capacity 

It’s really not a non-starter, if true the Health Secretary was saying that patients would be tested before going back into Care Homes knowing that the testing capacity wasn’t there to do so. So many elderly people died as a result.

[Fuzzy Afro]

The care homes thing ignores the fact that discharging patients was needed to ensure that enough hospital beds were available to treat younger patients and ensure the NHS wasn’t overwhelmed. 
 

I believe the average life expectancy of a care home resident from the day they are admitted is 18 months. Very sad, but the care home deaths were largely of people at the tail end of their natural lifespan and they probably prevented a total disaster for a lot of people in their 50s and 60s. I’m not sure it’s quite the stick to hammer the government with that people think it is. 

[zahidf]

[Fuzzy Afro]

Just now, zahidf said:

This is a good thing, but fake SAGE will spin it as a bad thing. 

[Chapple12345]

1 minute ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

This is a good thing, but fake SAGE will spin it as a bad thing. 

'Too many young people getting infected despite most of them being absolutely fine after infection, lock down till Christmas' 

[Fuzzy Afro]

4 minutes ago, Chapple12345 said:

'Too many young people getting infected despite most of them being absolutely fine after infection, lock down till Christmas' 

Friday game of Pagel bullshit bingo:

 

- “Lots of younger people will be hospitalised”

- “Long Covid”

- “Need to consider reversing step 3”

- “Matt Hancock is a right nincompoop”

 

Or words to those effect

[st dan]

9 minutes ago, zahidf said:

If that’s the case then there should be next to no impact to hospital admissions, and deaths should remain very low. Which should all be positive signs as we move to 21st June. Unless of course they decide that number of daily cases is also going to be a factor. 

[Chapple12345]

7 minutes ago, st dan said:

If that’s the case then there should be next to no impact to hospital admissions, and deaths should remain very low. Which should all be positive signs as we move to 21st June. Unless of course they decide that number of daily cases is also going to be a factor. 

Well in roughly 2 weeks they'll have to decide on whether to go forward, if this increase in infection doesn't lead to any major rise in hospitalizations I think we'd be good to go, especially as by then I imagine most people in the 20s age bracket will have had their first vaccination, personally I'm still hopeful the roadmap will be on track 

10 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Friday game of Pagel bullshit bingo:

 

- “Lots of younger people will be hospitalised”

- “Long Covid”

- “Need to consider reversing step 3”

- “Matt Hancock is a right nincompoop”

 

Or words to those effect

That's about right 😂 I do respect her concerns but we've consistently seen younger people aren't effected as much if they test postive so there won't be as much of a risk this time 

[zahidf]

Pagel calls for a 2 month extension for stage 4 on radio 4, saying its 'not that long to wait'

[JoeyT]

Good thread here:

 

[squirrelarmy]

Ban the under 30s from pubs. 
 

I might be able to book somewhere for a pint then 😂

[Fuzzy Afro]

7 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Pagel calls for a 2 month extension for stage 4 on radio 4, saying its 'not that long to wait'

I hate her so much. We’ve waited 15 months already. That’s more than long enough.