When will this shit end?

[Ozanne]

1 minute ago, crazyfool1 said:

so how many cases is too many ? of course daily cases were always going to increase ... usually they plateaux and then drop off ?

No one knows really. It's not just cases though as they look to see if that filters through to hospitalisations.

As you say cases are rising but so far it's not a worrying amount I would say.

[efcfanwirral]

5 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

so how many cases is too many ? of course daily cases were always going to increase ... usually they plateaux and then drop off ?

 

2 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

No one knows really. It's not just cases though as they look to see if that filters through to hospitalisations.

As you say cases are rising but so far it's not a worrying amount I would say.

The lack of parameters worries me more than the cases going up. We really should have some idea of what they're thinking. Though I suppose it we saw them going up maybe we would pull back from economic activity 

[Ozanne]

1 minute ago, efcfanwirral said:

 

The lack of parameters worries me more than the cases going up. We really should have some idea of what they're thinking. Though I suppose it we saw them going up maybe we would pull back from economic activity 

I would think they'd have some internally, surely? They probably don't want to publicise it as they know that people will want them to stick to it but they might not feel like they can.

[parsonjack]

4 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

No one knows really. It's not just cases though as they look to see if that filters through to hospitalisations.

As you say cases are rising but so far it's not a worrying amount I would say.

% Positivity still showing as around 0.5% where it's been hovering for some time now.....not seeing any obvious rise that can't be explained away by fluctuating testing figures.

Holding this course but keeping a watchful eye on the horizon.

[danmarks]

Deaths of cancer average 450 per day   deaths of flu average 190 a day. 

Aids is just under 2 per day but 192000 cases. 

None of these impact on 'normal' life.

Hopefully covid will become just anothet thing to consider not the all consuming thing the press are trying to make it (in my view to mostly keep themselves relevant).

[Crazyfool01]

correct me if im wrong but massive numbers of cases is still going to mean hospitalisations increasing  for those of whom the vaccine doesnt work and obviously the anti vaxers who have chosen not to be jabbed ... and its what level that gets to and if that causes the NHS to have issues ? 

[Ozanne]

Just now, crazyfool1 said:

correct me if im wrong but massive numbers of cases is still going to mean hospitalisations increasing  for those of whom the vaccine doesnt work and obviously the anti vaxers who have chosen not to be jabbed ... and its what level that gets to and if that causes the NHS to have issues ? 

Potentially yes. Those people will also be the under 20s that haven't been invited for a vaccine yet as well.

[parsonjack]

Just now, crazyfool1 said:

correct me if im wrong but massive numbers of cases is still going to mean hospitalisations increasing  for those of whom the vaccine doesnt work and obviously the anti vaxers who have chosen not to be jabbed ... and its what level that gets to and if that causes the NHS to have issues ? 

Massive numbers of cases *may not* translate to hospitalisations if the demographic is mainly under 30's though?  Do we have clear knowledge of the age spread of these new cases?

[Ozanne]

Interesting daily questions from YouGov today, small thread:

 

 

[danmarks]

The arguments used for the vaccines being aged prlrioritised is that most (and i stress most) younger people dont suffer to the point of hospitalisation if they catch it. 

Thetes a chart somewhere- its something like for every 20 over 80s jabbed that's 1 person not in hospital down to 100s jabbed as age decreases for 1 in hospital. 

Will try and find it

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, parsonjack said:

Massive numbers of cases *may not* translate to hospitalisations if the demographic is mainly under 30's though?  Do we have clear knowledge of the age spread of these new cases?

yep fair comment ... the increase in cases may be quite a jump because these people will potentially be the more active and be mixing more as society reopens ... but as you say may not hit hospitalisations  .... its kind of like balancing some of the old style scales 

[BobWillis2]

7 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

correct me if im wrong but massive numbers of cases is still going to mean hospitalisations increasing  for those of whom the vaccine doesnt work and obviously the anti vaxers who have chosen not to be jabbed ... and its what level that gets to and if that causes the NHS to have issues ? 

Unfortunately those for who the vaccine doesn’t work will always be at risk whether cases are high or low.  It only takes 1 to infect 1. 

[Ozanne]

Is Dr Jenny Harries trying to blame care homes for the deaths by not having prevention measures in place?

[danmarks]

Sorry. It was / is 1 in 5 dor over 80s.

Five people jabbed save 1 person from hospital or death. By age 18 its 11000 jabs.

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, BobWillis2 said:

Unfortunately those for who the vaccine doesn’t work will always be at risk whether cases are high or low.  It only takes 1 to infect 1. 

oh undoubtably but the higher the prevalence I guess the higher the chances they bump into someone who is infectious ...

[jimmillen]

15 minutes ago, danmarks said:

Deaths of cancer average 450 per day   deaths of flu average 190 a day. 

Aids is just under 2 per day but 192000 cases. 

None of these impact on 'normal' life.

Hopefully covid will become just anothet thing to consider not the all consuming thing the press are trying to make it (in my view to mostly keep themselves relevant).

Yeah I get where this argument is coming from, but it totally neglects the potential exponential effect of a spreading virus versus more linear conditions such as cancer. We need to be thinking ahead of COVID in a way that doesn’t apply to other conditions - or to other environmental health risks like road traffic accidents. 
 

(I bolded potential ‘cos it’s possible that the vaccine/antibody prevalence is now crushing the exponential nature of the virus. In which case happy days. But I don’t think we have the data to put COVID in the cancer/flu “just live with it” bucket quite yet.)

Edited May 27, 2021 by jimmillen

[jimmillen]

11 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Interesting daily questions from YouGov today, small thread:

 

 

God, nothing is more depressing than opinions about public health & government competence splitting so sharply along partisan lines. 🙄

Although arguably the way this question was phrased makes it more likely to be answered in a partisan way. 

[danmarks]

Which i totally agree with but- and we will all have our different points where  this is acceptable - i hope in 5 years or even a year it isn't a constant - ohh stay aware - headlines. We arent there yet. 

I was also trying to point out some people arw so focused on covid they forget theres a million other ways to die. So at some point it neezsto become a - 'yep i am aware of it therefore i will do this 'almost on a sub conscious level. 

Not many drink/drug drive. Not many share needles etc. 

 

It will settle down.

 I remember the Aids panic. 

It changes peopls but it does become a thing not THE thing 

[efcfanwirral]

1 minute ago, danmarks said:

Which i totally agree with but- and we will all have our different points where  this is acceptable - i hope in 5 years or even a year it isn't a constant - ohh stay aware - headlines. We arent there yet. 

I was also trying to point out some people arw so focused on covid they forget theres a million other ways to die. So at some point it neezsto become a - 'yep i am aware of it therefore i will do this 'almost on a sub conscious level. 

Not many drink/drug drive. Not many share needles etc. 

 

It will settle down.

 I remember the Aids panic. 

It changes peopls but it does become a thing not THE thing 

Yeah I agree with this

I'm seeing very little talk of how we can increase our capacity for non critical covid care (nightingale type?). I'm not comfortable with our freedom being so tied to nhs capacity to be honest, especially going into winter 

[Ozanne]

7 times Matt Hancock dodged the question, did he lie to the Prime Minister about people being discharged into Care Homes.

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

7 times Matt Hancock dodged the question, did he lie to the Prime Minister about people being discharged into Care Homes.

in the last 10 minutes ? nothing would surprise me 

[Crazyfool01]

jab capacity seems to be increasing locally from Next week .... dont know if thats a local thing ? 

[steviewevie]

Hancock's days are numbered, surely.

[jimmillen]

35 minutes ago, danmarks said:

Which i totally agree with but- and we will all have our different points where  this is acceptable - i hope in 5 years or even a year it isn't a constant - ohh stay aware - headlines. We arent there yet. 

I was also trying to point out some people arw so focused on covid they forget theres a million other ways to die. So at some point it neezsto become a - 'yep i am aware of it therefore i will do this 'almost on a sub conscious level. 

Not many drink/drug drive. Not many share needles etc. 

 

It will settle down.

 I remember the Aids panic. 

It changes peopls but it does become a thing not THE thing 

Yeah, fair enough - can’t argue with that 😉

[Crazyfool01]

3 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Hancock's days are numbered, surely.

half hour ?