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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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Bolton rates up by 18 again, so they seem to be increasing linearly, not exponentially. At least not for now, we'll have to see if there's an acceleration once the effect of this weekend's indoor activities kick in.

I can see why we have to wait five weeks between steps now, it seemed almost pointless when rates didn't go up, but it's going to be very interesting to see if the vaccines wall will be enough to keep significantly increased hospitalisations at bay.

They were talking about the models that could have deaths in the hundreds a day on the radio earlier. I would absolutely love to see those models. Obviously, as a gut feel it seems way off, but exponential growth can have a funny was of not being intuitive.

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Just now, stuartbert two hats said:

Bolton rates up by 18 again, so they seem to be increasing linearly, not exponentially. At least not for now, we'll have to see if there's an acceleration once the effect of this weekend's indoor activities kick in.

I can see why we have to wait five weeks between steps now, it seemed almost pointless when rates didn't go up, but it's going to be very interesting to see if the vaccines wall will be enough to keep significantly increased hospitalisations at bay.

They were talking about the models that could have deaths in the hundreds a day on the radio earlier. I would absolutely love to see those models. Obviously, as a gut feel it seems way off, but exponential growth can have a funny was of not being intuitive.

Those models had the Indian variant as 50% more transmissible. They'll have to adjust that now it seems a lot less than that

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41 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

That’s exactly how it’s going here, under 50s can choose AZ or J&J if they want and take an earlier appointment (my wife says she’s definitely going for J&J as she hates needles, so one jab and done suits her down to the ground!)...

Looking at countries allowing tourists quite a few have the requirement of 2 jabs + time after second. Not sure how the J&J fits into that!

 

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On 5/18/2021 at 1:29 AM, Leyrulion said:

Same here, also J&J. 

I figured I'd give them until 21st June and if they haven't got their act together/it still isn't approved then I'll just book on for a double dose of Pfizer/Moderna for July after everyone's had a 1st dose.

That'll be 4 months since the 2nd dose so should be absolutely fine to go again.... probably

Vaccine trial efesters, I had a letter through today from the trial confirming my vaccine status. 

Do we reckon this will be enough for the sorts of places that might ask for it?

In the more in depth letter they talk about it having emergency use authorisation so is valid.

 

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1 hour ago, Ryan1984 said:

Good on you for volunteering and helping manage it.

My GP text said they’re running Pfizer clinics tomorrow and Friday and more when they get confirmation of deliveries. Might be a similar situation at your hub?

The vaccination centres that I volunteer at have changed over from AZ to Pfizer, I assume based on age profile, the one I did on Monday had AZ on one floor for 2nd vaccinations, and Pfizer on another for 1st’s.
I was on the Pfizer floor expecting it all to be 35-42 year olds, I was quite surprised by the number of 50+ year olds that came through for 1st vaccination, not sure whether they were prompted by Pfizer being on offer for the 1st time at the centre or the Indian variant stuff had persuaded people to come forward.
Some of the medical staff were highlighting that it may impact on the supply plan as they were geared up for Pfizer/Moderna for the under 40s.

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8 minutes ago, august1 said:

Looking at countries allowing tourists quite a few have the requirement of 2 jabs + time after second. Not sure how the J&J fits into that!

 

J&J approved regimen is one dose, so fully vaccinated after the one. EU are counting AZ 1 dose + 4 weeks as fully vaccinated too so that people don’t turn it down for a quicker regimen (at least, that’s what the government are saying here about the green pass, it may be nonsense!). The only thing I was worried about were hints that the US will only accept FDA approved vaccines for entry without a negative test, and AZ isn’t approved there, but as it stands I’m due to get Pfizer or Moderna, so hopefully won’t arise (I’m not sure that’ll be what happens anyway). Travel is only really starting to gear up though, I think it’ll take a while to harmonise and get everyone moving again...as more places get greater proportions of their populations vaccinated, we’ll be in a better place to assess how they are all performing and allowing different types of protection becomes a lot easier. Tourism now and tourism in August/September should look a lot different.

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Just now, Barry Fish said:

The USA will create themselves huge problems if they didn't approve AZ vaccinated people and that was a condition of acceptance.  Its unimaginable really.  

That’s why I don’t really think it’ll come to pass (though nobody in the US has had it). It was chatter from mates at the NIH (they told me to make sure I got one of the FDA approved ones as they couldn’t guarantee anything else would be accepted...negative test was the option if you didn’t have one of the 3 FDA approved ones). I think they are worried about Sputnik, and to a greater extent Sinopharm, not really being up to scratch (UAE thought they were nearly done and now re-doing everyone with Pfizer), but that’s not the case for AZ...hopefully will accept EMA approved shots (or the FDA could just approve AZ)...Was talking to colleagues in China last week, at the moment, they’re saying only those with Chinese-approved vaccines (domestically produced) will be allowed in without quarantine, which would be a massive pain in the arse! I have flights to Shanghai that I’ve changed 3 times already! Hopefully all this gets sorted properly by the end of the year and we can move about with less hassle.

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2 hours ago, Ryan1984 said:

Good on you for volunteering and helping manage it.

My GP text said they’re running Pfizer clinics tomorrow and Friday and more when they get confirmation of deliveries. Might be a similar situation at your hub?

I've only ever worked at the mass centres (rather than GP hubs) and the one I was at today had AZ. Think it was mainly second doses judging by the demographic with a few stragglers for first. I was at a Pfizer centre last week though and am at a different place again next week so guess I'll see! 

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1 minute ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

I've only ever worked at the mass centres (rather than GP hubs) and the one I was at today had AZ. Think it was mainly second doses judging by the demographic with a few stragglers for first. I was at a Pfizer centre last week though and am at a different place again next week so guess I'll see! 

Also the Pfizer centre I worked at had been doing AZ previously so they do seem to mix it up a bit depending on supply.

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24 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

The blood clotting issue isn't really a big enough issue to stop approval you would imagine.  Same as rest of the world no doubt - approved with conditions. 

It’s not really the clotting issue though (J&J looks similar and it’s approved), they just don’t have any great need to approve it anymore. Distribution of Pfizer is easier now, J&J fulfilled that requirement for them anyway and they have enough with the 3 they have approved, so likely to give away the AZ doses they have already and switch the manufacturing sites over to J&J (which they have already done for one of them)...I wouldn’t be surprised if they didn’t bother approving it at all as they no longer plan to use it (there’s loads of things approved in the US that aren’t approved in Europe and vice versa). They are certainly dragging out the approval and are in no great hurry, Pfizer might even get full approval before AZ get EUA (is it an emergency anymore in the US if there are enough vaccines for everyone already and you can get one by just walking in off the street?). If they accepted WHO approval it would solve it, but WHO have approved the very vaccines they are trying to avoid. There’s always the possibility that the US doesn’t bother with vaccine certs at all once they reopen their borders...

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Singapore have followed the lead in lengthening the gap between doses to get more 1st doses completed, so I've got my SMS to go get some Pfizery goodness. In lieu of any roadmap or exit plan here, it feels about as close to progress as we may get for a while yet.

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9 hours ago, efcfanwirral said:

Is it really necessary? We've gone from only the vulnerable to every adult - surely not THAT much has changed to stop us from opening up when we're waiting for a few 25 and under to be protected if that timeline happens? Where has our sense of normal risk gone? 

Completely agree. When did the aim change from "protect the NHS" to "stop anyone getting sick"? 

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10 hours ago, zahidf said:

 

I think they mean England rather than the UK, Scotland is being slow. Officially we're still doing over 40s although I know enough people in their late 30s to know we're edging in that direction. I still think just sending out random appointments is less efficient than letting people book but it seems we are also holding back some in case of future supply problems.

I'm 36 and grumpy that I could book if still lived down south even though I'll probably get my blue letter in the next week.

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4 minutes ago, mcshed said:

I think they mean England rather than the UK, Scotland is being slow. Officially we're still doing over 40s although I know enough people in their late 30s to know we're edging in that direction. I still think just sending out random appointments is less efficient than letting people book but it seems we are also holding back some in case of future supply problems.

I'm 36 and grumpy that I could book if still lived down south even though I'll probably get my blue letter in the next week.

https://invitations.vacs.nhs.scot/

 

You can use this link to get an appointment apparently if there are issues with getting the letter (though the link is currently down)

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6 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

 

I agree, things arent unlocked if we still have social distancing.

Masks on public transport and a vaccine certificate for mass events seems a reasonable compromise

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