When will this shit end?

[squirrelarmy]

38 minutes ago, Lizzim said:

The surge in cases is in her own constituency, so not a decision she has taken lightly.  In the areas affected it's about 10% of the population testing positive.  I think it's something to be concerned about.

If they hand out some deep fried pizza with every jab they’d soon get the population vaccinated. 

[stuartbert two hats]

No sign of things calming down in Bolton. The rest of GM also trending up, albeit not as fast:

 

[thewayiam]

38 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

I wonder if the liverpool event is for day gigs e.g. (hypothetically if 21st June somehow comes off) that James one in London. Perhaps capacity limited. I doubt they'd need the camping event results for that. 

But it appears FR won't get away with convincing the scientists that this can be expanded to camping events

I don't have any hope for the James gig happening. 

Haha no, no chance in camping at this stage. People sat around campsites doing whatever they choose to on top of this is a no go.

[Ryan1984]

Do you think perhaps part of tonight’s press conference was intended as a warning to people to remain cautious when things open up on Monday and not go silly? Not sure if I’m falling down a conspiracy there...

[thewayiam]

1 minute ago, stuartbert two hats said:

No sign of things calming down in Bolton. The rest of GM also trending up, albeit not as fast:

 

Those results need to come down quickly this month if Leeds has any chance of happening as that is results they will prob go by in terms of currently is it safe.

I'm annoyed about one August date with the new June event under test pilot but I was ready for it.

[stuartbert two hats]

I've got to say, if this growth is variant driven, then no wonder they've been so fucked in India with this the dominant variant and not as many restrictions or vaccinations.

[Chapple12345]

6 minutes ago, Ryan1984 said:

Do you think perhaps part of tonight’s press conference was intended as a warning to people to remain cautious when things open up on Monday and not go silly? Not sure if I’m falling down a conspiracy there...

It probably is, I think as this is the biggest easing it carries the most risk but as the others haven't caused huge upsurge hopefully this one follows the same route 

[MEGABOWL]

16 minutes ago, Ryan1984 said:

Do you think perhaps part of tonight’s press conference was intended as a warning to people to remain cautious when things open up on Monday and not go silly? Not sure if I’m falling down a conspiracy there...

I think that’s a big part of it. The Behavioural ‘Scientists’ will have contributed heavily.

[HalfAnIdiot]

20 minutes ago, Ryan1984 said:

Do you think perhaps part of tonight’s press conference was intended as a warning to people to remain cautious when things open up on Monday and not go silly? Not sure if I’m falling down a conspiracy there...

It's easy to overthink this stuff. What you see is what you get.

Were staying on plan for opening up and keeping a close watch on this variant plus taking some action to combat it. If it goes pear shaped we delay. 

 

 

[Avalon_Fields]

2 hours ago, jannybruck said:

There needs to be some serious conversations after this around some of the factors that have lead to these flare-ups, because it's happened multiple times in the past year in hotspots where they've found it difficult to control.

Certain communities not only live in extreme poverty, in poor quality multigenerational HMOs, but also work in close quarters with poor conditions, often factories. Add on top of this skepticism of vaccines and misinformation, lack of communications getting to them because of language barriers, and fear of government because of notoriously bad experiences with authority.. it's a huge fucking mess of a tinderbox, really.

I don't expect the government to acknowledge this because it exposes poverty and neglect and community isolation in huge swathes of the country, but if anything (god forbid) happens again like this then these pressure points need a tonne of funding and attention placed on it before we even start looking at elsewhere.

Certainly true. Much of Bolton doesn’t have high rates but the select areas that do are exactly the communities you describe. For those who know Bolton, around the university area.

[steviewevie]

 

[Ozanne]

I guess this is the downside of having a roadmap set out months in advance, they feel they can’t row back on it if they are concerned about anything. Then again we have to try at some stage don’t we?

[efcfanwirral]

21 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

 

Johnson is a fucking clown. Hasn't learnt a thing. This is the most critical point and he's (probably) fucked it up again. 

The evidence he needs is hospitals filling up, meaning we need months of restrictions as its miles too late by then 

How can someone have such a level of incompetence? 

Edited May 14, 2021 by efcfanwirral

[efcfanwirral]

1 hour ago, thewayiam said:

I don't have any hope for the James gig happening. 

No me neither but Liverpool could still be a hypothetical green light for testing giving us outdoor events at a certain level when the overall situation is safe. So I'm not writing off live music day events completely for late summer yet, just the camping events. They should be safe whatever really, with testing, but the perception of them obviously is an issue 

[august1]

Once Bolton/Sefton cases find themselves in Manchester/Liverpool its a recipe for things to explode. Having 10,000 fans at all home games next week and people moving all over the country to attend them seems a bit mad. People should stay where they live within reason except for work/emergencies etc. 

[efcfanwirral]

2 minutes ago, august1 said:

Once Bolton/Sefton cases find themselves in Manchester/Liverpool its a recipe for things to explode. Having 10,000 fans at all home games next week and people moving all over the country to attend them seems a bit mad. People should stay where they live within reason except for work/emergencies etc. 

Yeah opening up the North West is mental i think. Was considering a day out in Liverpool this coming Friday but am postponing that indefinitely- I expect it'll be some time before I can do that

[thewayiam]

12 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

No me neither but Liverpool could still be a hypothetical green light for testing giving us outdoor events at a certain level when the overall situation is safe. So I'm not writing off live music day events completely for late summer yet, just the camping events. They should be safe whatever really, with testing, but the perception of them obviously is an issue 

I'm waiting for the results first to see how true it is that 10% were turned away. The James gig was the most pointless announcement for me. 

As we now know or it seems clear that upto August will likely be a matter of time for cancels. I don't think July really have much later than next week anyway.

I can see some coming tomorrow 

[zahidf]

6 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Johnson is a fucking clown. Hasn't learnt a thing. This is the most critical point and he's (probably) fucked it up again. 

The evidence he needs is hospitals filling up, meaning we need months of restrictions as its miles too late by then 

How can someone have such a level of incompetence? 

Cases are very low at the moment. I think some perspective is needed on it at the moment. Its concerning but need more information 

[zahidf]

Before everyone hits panic stations

 

[Matt42]

Why are we panicking? Increase in cases but no increase in hospitalisations or deaths?

[efcfanwirral]

1 minute ago, Matt42 said:

Why are we panicking? Increase in cases but no increase in hospitalisations or deaths?

If we haven't learnt that when a potential massive issue is on the horizon that we should be cautious to head it off and avoid making it a much bigger problem than it needs to be, then there's not much hope for us 

[efcfanwirral]

21 minutes ago, thewayiam said:

I'm waiting for the results first to see how true it is that 10% were turned away. The James gig was the most pointless announcement for me. 

As we now know or it seems clear that upto August will likely be a matter of time for cancels. I don't think July really have much later than next week anyway.

I can see some coming tomorrow 

Apart from one strange interview there's been no indication that was the case, and more than one anecdotal report about there being no cases so I'm not too concerned on that one. The actual case numbers in Liverpool were in double figures for those few days whereas 10% would've been 500, which would've been like a quarter of the whole country for a day. Its not even remotely logical that they all tested positive, but I do think there were people who tried to get around the rules about GP registration (I considered it!) 

[stuie]

6 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Why are we panicking? Increase in cases but no increase in hospitalisations or deaths?

Fear.

4 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

If we haven't learnt that when a potential massive issue is on the horizon that we should be cautious to head it off and avoid making it a much bigger problem than it needs to be, then there's not much hope for us 

We aren’t in the same situation as before though. Our elderly and vulnerable didn’t have the protections of vaccines. 

[stuartbert two hats]

13 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Why are we panicking? Increase in cases but no increase in hospitalisations or deaths?

The case rise has started very recently, so wouldn't have chance to show up in hospitalisations yet. Also, it's very fast in a partially vaccinated population before restrictions have been limited.

So, whilst most people are not panicking, there's certainly a cause for concern, which grows a little every day the increase in Bolton fails to subside.

Edit: yes, I know the case-death relationship has been fundamentally altered, but if the numbers go high enough, then people will still die in reasonable numbers. Let's get jabbing, double quick!

Edited May 14, 2021 by stuartbert two hats

[Ozanne]

52 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Johnson is a fucking clown. Hasn't learnt a thing. This is the most critical point and he's (probably) fucked it up again. 

The evidence he needs is hospitals filling up, meaning we need months of restrictions as its miles too late by then 

How can someone have such a level of incompetence? 

I tend to agree and the measures recommended by SAGE seem pretty reasonable to me. I feel Johnson should do something before it's too late even if it's surge vaccination in those areas. It's not at that level but this does feel like December again in a way.