When will this shit end?

[BobWillis2]

4 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

It’s not looking great. Cases going up right before the next stage of easing. I can’t see them cancelling the next stage at this short notice but there could be delays for the final stage. 

Unless there is a risk of a surge in hospital admissions then a rise in cases is pretty much irrelevant. 
We know that those most likely to be hospitalised in large numbers have already received at least one dose. 
We have good early evidence that the vaccines work against the India variant. 
There is not a high risk currently that hospitals are going to fill up again. 
 

What step 4 will actually look like has never been set in stone so they can tinker with that if they feel it’s necessary but I can’t see any delays to the steps at the moment. 

[BobWillis2]

If there is a delay to the roadmap it will be a political decision not a scientific one. 

[Ozanne]

13 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

 

As I said yesterday, I suspect there will be a delay to the final step - but I really don't think it'll be a long one. Get a few more jabs in arms before we go clubbing and everything will be grand. I have to keep telling myself to not react like Pavlov's dog when I see the familiar patterns of the case numbers rising. It is not the same. Vaccination changes things so much.  Even in Bolton cases numbers are flat in the vaccinated (I.e. previously most vulnerable) age group.

Festivals are on for September, we're not going to lock down again and the ICUs are not going to get full.  Sadly, I do think hospitalisations will go up again at some point in the next couple of months, but when and by how much, I'm not sure - but if this wave comes, it will be the smallest of the four.

I think you are right with that, it win; t be the same as before because of how many we have vaccinated and even a delay of a few weeks pushed things back to July and gives time for things to happen in the summer for people to go and enjoy. Hopefully it doesn't lead to that but these few weeks are pretty vital to see how it goes.

[august1]

I'm not expecting a delay currently but if there is one I'd expect stage 4 to be split into two. Lot of reopening on the 21st June, and the most risky stuff in July once everyone has been jabbed.

[Fuzzy Afro]

3 hours ago, BobWillis2 said:

Hopefully we just ditch them rather than go the fully vaccinated only route.

Im not waiting until August to stop wearing masks. 

It’s about time that the memery of being “fully vaccinated” is consigned to the bin 

[efcfanwirral]

57 minutes ago, august1 said:

I'm not expecting a delay currently but if there is one I'd expect stage 4 to be split into two. Lot of reopening on the 21st June, and the most risky stuff in July once everyone has been jabbed.

An interesting question they'll have to ask in such a scenario is...are events any more or less risky if they require testing? The risk of the occasional false negative vs a failing industry is quite a big trade off.  It becomes a political decision because people will be scared to see gatherings happen but the safety/science side would surely be ok? 

Edited May 13, 2021 by efcfanwirral

[august1]

5 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

An interesting question they'll have to ask in such a scenario is...are events any more or less risky if they require testing? The risk of the occasional false negative vs a failing industry is quite a big trade off.  It becomes a political decision because people will be scared to see gatherings happen but the safety/science side would surely be ok? 

I think outdoor gatherings will be allowed in any number, probable testing for large scale stuff. I think failing industry in summer is mainly outdoorsy stuff anyway?

Clubs will be last on the list for opening and tbf summer seems to be a quite time for indoor bars/clubs until the students turn up in September in most places.

[Suprefan]

5 hours ago, zahidf said:

Tnf anyone over 18 in the US can get a vaccine now. Not the same in the UK

Well the FDA just allowed 12-15 year olds to be able to receive Pfizer now.

[Reckoner]

8 hours ago, JoeyT said:

 

Bloody Fake Sage. What do they know?

(fwiw, I think you’ll be fine, the vaccines will hold, and no reason to hold back Monday)

 

[Reckoner]

Jokes on me. Singapore enters snap 4 week period of restrictions after (checks notes) 4 unlinked cases. Sigh

 

 

[Ozanne]

Indian variant: Second jabs could be brought forward to tackle rise https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-57109660

[steviewevie]

 

[Ryan1984]

8 hours ago, squirrelarmy said:

It’s not looking great. Cases going up right before the next stage of easing. I can’t see them cancelling the next stage at this short notice but there could be delays for the final stage. 

All the comments from Johnson regarding being anxious etc are very reminiscent of pre-Christmas. Hopefully the vaccine rollout will continue to go great guns so we hit the end of July target (I think we might be a couple of weeks ahead of schedule there).

[Fuzzy Afro]

Interesting that there is talk of bringing second doses forward in affected areas rather than rolling out the first dose further. Does that suggest that a vulnerable person’s second dose is more important than a non-vulnerable person’s first dose? 

[Chapple12345]

12 minutes ago, Ryan1984 said:

All the comments from Johnson regarding being anxious etc are very reminiscent of pre-Christmas. Hopefully the vaccine rollout will continue to go great guns so we hit the end of July target (I think we might be a couple of weeks ahead of schedule there).

I think you've answered your own worry there, the vaccine rollout is going better than anyone could have thought and day on day is getting better, this will hopefully minimise any risks of things worsening, I agree though that we will reach the target, if not it will be a couple of weeks late absolute max

[steviewevie]

 

[Ozanne]

23 minutes ago, Ryan1984 said:

All the comments from Johnson regarding being anxious etc are very reminiscent of pre-Christmas. Hopefully the vaccine rollout will continue to go great guns so we hit the end of July target (I think we might be a couple of weeks ahead of schedule there).

That’s the main difference here, the vaccine roll out has been going well that it probably won’t be as bad as it was, saying that we should remain vigilant against any possible threat and if needed then look at measures that can help. 

[chestwig]

54 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

 

Wouldn't have thought this to the case at all. The vaccines are designed to be 'leaky' in nature. I know dozens of families where this has happened and the spread a vaccine derived version of the virus to close family members.

 

What you have to remember that for some people taking these mRNA vaccine the symptoms are just has heavy and in some case worse than if they has just come into the virus naturally.

Edited May 14, 2021 by chestwig

[Fuzzy Afro]

20 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Starting to think delay might be wise.  Its clear Boris has once again put us in shit position.

As far as I can tell there’s no serious prospect of delaying stage 3. Only Dominic Cummings and fake SAGE member Christina Pagel have suggested this but it doesn’t seem to be something that’s in the thoughts of government or even real SAGE.

 

The question is more whether stage 4 can go ahead on 21 June or not and to be honest, it’s far too early to rule that in or out yet. They’ll wait and see what happens with stage 3 and then make a call. 

[Fuzzy Afro]

4 minutes ago, chestwig said:

Wouldn't have thought this to the case at all. The vaccines are designed to be 'leaky' in nature. I know dozens of families where this has happened.

 

[philipsteak]

27 minutes ago, chestwig said:

Wouldn't have thought this to the case at all. The vaccines are designed to be 'leaky' in nature. I know dozens of families where this has happened and the spread a vaccine derived version of the virus to close family members.

 

What you have to remember that for some people taking these mRNA vaccine the symptoms are just has heavy and in some case worse than if they has just come into the virus naturally.

"Dozens" eh? That's a lot. Think you might have overplayed your hand there.

[stuartbert two hats]

34 minutes ago, chestwig said:

Wouldn't have thought this to the case at all. The vaccines are designed to be 'leaky' in nature. I know dozens of families where this has happened and the spread a vaccine derived version of the virus to close family members.

 

What you have to remember that for some people taking these mRNA vaccine the symptoms are just has heavy and in some case worse than if they has just come into the virus naturally.

What exactly is "a vaccine derived version of the virus"?

[Ryan1984]

31 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

As far as I can tell there’s no serious prospect of delaying stage 3. Only Dominic Cummings and fake SAGE member Christina Pagel have suggested this but it doesn’t seem to be something that’s in the thoughts of government or even real SAGE.

 

The question is more whether stage 4 can go ahead on 21 June or not and to be honest, it’s far too early to rule that in or out yet. They’ll wait and see what happens with stage 3 and then make a call. 

Cummings might edit his blog again to make it look like whatever he suggested was the right decision...

Edited May 14, 2021 by Ryan1984

[zahidf]

35 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

What has got me spooked is last nights chaotic response.

Bringing forward the 2nd jab when most the studies show you are best wating 12 weeks.  Surge testing and enhanced contact tracing all seems a little late in the day.

Feels like the cat is out of the bag actually already.  And if it is then its probably just another thing we have ti live with and hope the vaccines work and people get jabbed.

I retract my last post.

Fucking Boris... again!!

The vaccine is working. Let's see the situation in the next few weeks as designed. Surge vaccinated the worse areas and lock them down regionally now.

[JoeyT]

1 minute ago, Barry Fish said:

Regional lockdowns don't work and a really discriminatory.  Don't agree with that approach 

In what way are they discriminatory?

They are used to contain the virus in a particular area not for shits and giggles?!