When will this shit end?

[Fuzzy Afro]

2 minutes ago, BobWillis2 said:

Also worth remembering that the majority of older people who get covid also get mild symptoms and a very short experience with the disease. 

Quite. Besides those boomers have been vaccinated now (some aren’t “fully vaccinated” but it’s the first dose that counts. That’s another pandemic theatre meme that needs die)

 

Quite a long time now since c19 was a public health crisis in the UK. 

[steviewevie]

 

[JoeyT]

But not in Bolton. You guys can still keep a seat between you!

 

[Toilet Duck]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

 

Think the science editor at the DM needs to have another look...the B.1.617.2 lineage (which is the one spreading mostly in the UK) doesn't have the E484Q mutation, it lost it in fact. It still has our old friend D614G and the L452R mutation that the Californian variant has (which combine to make it more transmissible...maybe to a similar extent as B1.1.7 (Kent), so it can compete with it, though founder effects still can't be ruled out yet)...but the main spike change postulated to evade neutralising antibodies (E484K/Q) isn't actually present in this one. All the Indian lineages have another change (P681R) that we don't really know much about, but it's location is a bit suspect and could make it more infectious (it's a big could!).  So, at the moment, it looks more like the Californian variant or the Kent variant rather than our South African friend...and I don't see anything that makes me think the vaccines won't work (and as @Havors has stated, there's more to our immune system than neutralising antibodies anyway). Even the inactivated virus vaccine being used in India seems to neutralise these lineages pretty well (at most a 2-3 fold reduction, which is much less than we saw for some other variants and they are still well controlled in terms of disease outcomes by the existing vaccines)...even some of the monoclonal antibody therapies still work against the Indian lineages in the lab. Need to keep an eye for breakthrough infections (at the moment, the vaccinated population in the hotspots look well protected) and for any impact on outcomes, but pushing on with as much vaccination as possible would seem to be the best option (limiting travel to/from the regions in question would help over the next few weeks til that takes hold though). 

[onthebeach]

1 minute ago, Barry Fish said:

Be careful how far and how much read into one graph / one study I would say.  The focus was around it was how quickly you build protection.  I have read other things to say protection remains up to 12 week period for both vaccines and its the right approach.  

Yes, as I mentioned this goes against my previous understanding and why the 11-12 gap is/was the right decision for our circumstances at the beginning of the rollout. However, does this not undermine the other figures given there?  Best not to pick and chose figures to suit our own narrative as much as I hope the protection build up to 4 weeks is actually correct.

[efcfanwirral]

3 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

 (limiting travel to/from the regions in question would help over the next few weeks til that takes hold though). 

That's something we've really struggled with over here. They could ask people to do that, but in an area that seemingly has some underlying issues that lead to them spreading the virus at times other aren't like happened last summer (compliance perhaps being one of these reasons), I'm not convinced it'll be listened to. And it certainly won't be enforced 

Edited May 13, 2021 by efcfanwirral

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, Toilet Duck said:

Think the science editor at the DM needs to have another look...the B.1.617.2 lineage (which is the one spreading mostly in the UK) doesn't have the E484Q mutation, it lost it in fact. It still has our old friend D614G and the L452R mutation that the Californian variant has (which combine to make it more transmissible...maybe to a similar extent as B1.1.7 (Kent), so it can compete with it, though founder effects still can't be ruled out yet)...but the main spike change postulated to evade neutralising antibodies (E484K/Q) isn't actually present in this one. All the Indian lineages have another change (P681R) that we don't really know much about, but it's location is a bit suspect and could make it more infectious (it's a big could!).  So, at the moment, it looks more like the Californian variant or the Kent variant rather than our South African friend...and I don't see anything that makes me think the vaccines won't work (and as @Havors has stated, there's more to our immune system than neutralising antibodies anyway). Even the inactivated virus vaccine being used in India seems to neutralise these lineages pretty well (at most a 2-3 fold reduction, which is much less than we saw for some other variants and they are still well controlled in terms of disease outcomes by the existing vaccines)...even some of the monoclonal antibody therapies still work against the Indian lineages in the lab. Need to keep an eye for breakthrough infections (at the moment, the vaccinated population in the hotspots look well protected) and for any impact on outcomes, but pushing on with as much vaccination as possible would seem to be the best option (limiting travel to/from the regions in question would help over the next few weeks til that takes hold though). 

yeah, I did notice the mutations were all the same for all three variants (or lineages or whatever the fuck they're called)...so thought maybe it was a mistake.....the main point was there were surges of these variants in many places in the country..not just Bolton....but I couldn't copy in one tweet without the other tweet...if you know what I mean....

How's it going in Ireland? People worrying about the Indian variant over there?

[JoeyT]

6 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

@JoeyT @steviewevie are the same person 😮   only a matter of time before the truth came out...  but which one is the sock puppet ? 

Say what?

[Hannibal Schmitt]

Its quite bizarre I have to say. Today you could read in this thread more about the Indian variant and what should be done now than in all Austrian Newspapers together last weeks.

I get it that many are anticipating the next step in the roadmap and I get it that a cautious approach is necessary. But caution should be different from fear as fear is a bad companion, otherwise we would live in fear for the next few years, every time a new variant appears. And it would be bizarre if most European countries are opening up and the UK - which is still ahead of vaccination and is still ahead of less cases per day than most other European Countries would now delay all this.

I already had covid, my father nearly died, but I think that in Austria its the absolutely right decision to open up things next week so that life can go on somewhen and somehow (I work in culture/art and this sector has been a desert valley in the past few months) so that we will have a very good summer and last developments are very promising keeping also those few cases of the Indian variant which popped up in a few districts under control.

Also, experts are the most cautious of all, but their opinions are certainly varied and everyone should take their forecasts with a pinch of salt - sometimes you get the impression that its not far away from weather forecasting - experts warned that Austrias current opening up plan would go very bad - only if you have great luck numbers cases could become much lower - but it seems to be the case that we have great luck or also that experts seem to be wrong - and if all goes amiss the health department can always pull the brakes.

And: surge vaccination is a good idea, we had it here when there were many cases of the South Africa Variant in a district in a Tyrol (the EU gave many doses of extra Pfizer to this region/one few time the EU acted fast and right) - and cases went downhill rather soon. 

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

Say what?

how the fuck did they find out? Did you tell them?

[DeanoL]

15 minutes ago, zahidf said:

A vast majoirty of these 20 year olds dont care and want lockdown gone as well as the vaccinated people. 

I think you're right - but I wish that companies would commit to keeping that an option for people who are being asked to return to jobs with lots of social contact before they're vaccinated, that have previously been furloughed. Or have it be an absolute legal requirement. Like I said, in that case I'd be fine with it.

13 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Yet again you overstate the actual impact of covid on young adults. I’m not sure if this is because you’ve genuinely bought into the whole “it could happen to anyone” narrative, which is completely made up narrative to motivate younger people to follow the rules, or if you are willingly misinterpreting the virus to prove a point, but many many young adults with covid don’t get any symptoms at all (1/3 of all cases are asymptomatic and this skews young and healthy) and of the ones that do, most just have a slight cold for a few days.

Honestly, it's from seeing a couple of friends (one my age, one slightly older) suffer really badly with it. You can tell me they're statistical outliers, sure, but it doesn't change my view. It's not a risk worth taking for me.

3 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

I mean I get it as a father who has been through this stuff.  Nothing more important to you than your own children, specially a new born baby.  But you have to push past irrational fears.

But that's the weird thing isn't it? I don't. I'll probably get vaccinated in the next two weeks. So it's another month until I can feel safe. So I don't have to push past it.

And what I really struggle with, is that nearly all the people on here making these points *are already vaccinated*. So it's not actually a risk or decision you're having to deal with. And that doesn't sit right either. "If I wasn't vaccinated and was 36 I'd be out partying on Monday anyway." But you're 46 and vaccinated and don't have to make that choice. Easy to say what you would do when you don't have to do it - didn't we all agreed that was true when someone said they'd give up their vaccine for someone in the global south if they could?

Also already vaccinated, incidentally, are all the government minsters and scientists determining the roadmap.

I dunno, I feel like a lot more people here, were they in my shoes, which is: "things open up properly on Monday and I get vaccinated in a couple of weeks" would probably have the same attitude as me: "I'll wait that couple of weeks". 

Because it seems so harmless - and it's personal choice. But for me I can't get over the idea of wanting to make that choice, and then feeling okay with denying that choice to other people. That feels fundamentally wrong to me. It's not whether it's best for the economy, or what the NHS can handle - it's denying others an option that was given to me and that I chose to take.

(And this is consistent - if you look back I was here arguing for supermarket workers and others who are still having to go into work to be vaccinated in Feb).

[Toilet Duck]

1 minute ago, efcfanwirral said:

That's something we've really struggled with over here. They could ask people to do that, but in an area that seemingly has some underlying issues that lead to them spreading the virus at times other aren't like happened last summer (compliance perhaps being one of these reasons), I'm not convinced it'll be listened to. And it certainly won't be enforced 

If you are going to do it, it really does need to be enforced (mostly). We've had travel limits for much of the last 5 months (5km from home up until a few weeks ago) and there were police checkpoints to enforce it. Eventually people stop taking the piss (I spent months thinking that nobody was paying any attention to the rule, though I wasn't going anywhere, so I just assumed...but when it was lifted, the car park at the castle at the end of my road was overflowing the first weekend, so it looks like most people were staying close to home after all!). 3 or 4 weeks should do it if they blitzed the vaccinations (and still be in time for nationwide reopening at the end of June). It's a bit of a change of strategy though (which I think they are reluctant to do as the roll out has gone well), but you are shifting from mitigating severe outcomes (prioritising based on age) to using the fact that the vaccines have an impact on transmission to get control over an outbreak. 

[steviewevie]

Usual Guardian nonsense.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/13/india-covid-variant-is-it-threat-uk-reopening-plans

[Toilet Duck]

8 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

yeah, I did notice the mutations were all the same for all three variants (or lineages or whatever the fuck they're called)...so thought maybe it was a mistake.....the main point was there were surges of these variants in many places in the country..not just Bolton....but I couldn't copy in one tweet without the other tweet...if you know what I mean....

How's it going in Ireland? People worrying about the Indian variant over there?

Not really! (I think we've had a few cases but not much). We are at a steady state of about 400 cases per day (it's stayed like this as we've opened up different things bit by bit), but the vaccine roll out is heading into the 40 year olds shortly and they expect that everyone will have been offered a jab by the end of June (first week in July maybe). Hospitalisations continue to fall (this morning there were 111 people in hospital with Covid, 36 of them in ICU, but discharges happen in the afternoon and admissions are counted at 8am, so it will drop a bit in a few hours...that's down from nearly 2500 people in hospital back in January/Feb and over 250 in ICU (with 400 more on supplemental oxygen outside ICU)...so it's stable and continuing to improve). Pubs and restaurants aren't open yet, but will reopen for outdoor service in a couple of weeks, non-essential retail opens back up on Monday (it's open by appointment at the moment). There's still a debate on what to do with AZ and J&J as we have some of both (but way more Pfizer) and we'll get a decision tomorrow (the health service have asked to be able to use all 4 vaccines in all age groups to get the programme finished asap). I should be able to book my shot in the next couple of weeks but more importantly, I got my hair cut for the first time since last September today! 

[Mimo]

6 minutes ago, Hannibal Schmitt said:

Its quite bizarre I have to say. Today you could read in this thread more about the Indian variant and what should be done now than in all Austrian Newspapers together last weeks.

I get it that many are anticipating the next step in the roadmap and I get it that a cautious approach is necessary. But caution should be different from fear as fear is a bad companion, otherwise we would live in fear for the next few years, every time a new variant appears. And it would be bizarre if most European countries are opening up and the UK - which is still ahead of vaccination and is still ahead of less cases per day than most other European Countries would now delay all this.

I already had covid, my father nearly died, but I think that in Austria its the absolutely right decision to open up things next week so that life can go on somewhen and somehow (I work in culture/art and this sector has been a desert valley in the past few months) so that we will have a very good summer and last developments are very promising keeping also those few cases of the Indian variant which popped up in a few districts under control.

Also, experts are the most cautious of all, but their opinions are certainly varied and everyone should take their forecasts with a pinch of salt - sometimes you get the impression that its not far away from weather forecasting - experts warned that Austrias current opening up plan would go very bad - only if you have great luck numbers cases could become much lower - but it seems to be the case that we have great luck or also that experts seem to be wrong - and if all goes amiss the health department can always pull the brakes.

And: surge vaccination is a good idea, we had it here when there were many cases of the South Africa Variant in a district in a Tyrol (the EU gave many doses of extra Pfizer to this region/one few time the EU acted fast and right) - and cases went downhill rather soon. 

I think what happened here at Christmas will live long in the collective memory. Most people’s favourite time of year became the bleakest few weeks in our lifetime.

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Not really! (I think we've had a few cases but not much). We are at a steady state of about 400 cases per day (it's stayed like this as we've opened up different things bit by bit), but the vaccine roll out is heading into the 40 year olds shortly and they expect that everyone will have been offered a jab by the end of June (first week in July maybe). Hospitalisations continue to fall (this morning there were 111 people in hospital with Covid, 36 of them in ICU, but discharges happen in the afternoon and admissions are counted at 8am, so it will drop a bit in a few hours...that's down from nearly 2500 people in hospital back in January/Feb and over 250 in ICU (with 400 more on supplemental oxygen outside ICU)...so it's stable and continuing to improve). Pubs and restaurants aren't open yet, but will reopen for outdoor service in a couple of weeks, non-essential retail opens back up on Monday (it's open by appointment at the moment). There's still a debate on what to do with AZ and J&J as we have some of both (but way more Pfizer) and we'll get a decision tomorrow (the health service have asked to be able to use all 4 vaccines in all age groups to get the programme finished asap). I should be able to book my shot in the next couple of weeks but more importantly, I got my hair cut for the first time since last September today! 

Great news about your hair. I know that was a big concern for you and your loved ones.

[Toilet Duck]

Just now, steviewevie said:

Great news about your hair. I know that was a big concern for you and your loved ones.

😂 

[DeanoL]

2 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

First off its a bit of a cheap shot to point out I have been vaccinated.  My view points haven't really changed pre / post vaccine but if your going to play that card then nothing I can do to tackle it.  Vaccine shaming is a funny thing 😄 

You keep saying just a few more weeks.  But you are talking to businesses that have been closed for a huge period over the last year.  Another few more weeks is going to be a massive issue for a lot of businesses.  Some of them have been trading on next to nothing now far beyond what anyone would imagined was possible.  They don't have a few more weeks.  Many its June or bust.

Your purely focused on covid when there is so much other shit happening.

Don't worry - I totally believe you're unwavering enough in your opinions that they wouldn't have changed regardless of if you were vaxxed or not. I don't think that applies to everyone though. I think if it were different it'd be more balanced here. 

And yeah, the economic argument is valid but it's not as wide as you might think. It'd be a pretty weird coincidence if every business was just running out of money at the precise point we had the vulnerable vaccinated. There would be a few for who that few weeks make a difference - but no more than we could have saved by opening another few weeks earlier. 

But it should be easy to solve - we just have rules that any company that has someone furloughed as of today, the right to continue that furlough until 3 weeks after their vaccination is now given to the employee, and the employer can't force them to come in. Most young people won't care and will just want to get back to normal anyway right? And it's not like pubs and restaurants will be at 100% capacity so they won't need 100% of staff in anyway.

[DeanoL]

Also pointing out that you've been vaccinated is me wanting to see a load of people chime in saying "I've not been vaccinated yet but I'm going out partying on Monday" in support to prove me wrong!

[JoeyT]

Cases aren't dropping per say but they also aren't flying up exponentially...

 

[Hannibal Schmitt]

13 minutes ago, Mimo said:

I think what happened here at Christmas will live long in the collective memory. Most people’s favourite time of year became the bleakest few weeks in our lifetime.

My concern, not for me, but generally is that we are producing a lost generation now - no school, no friends, no clubs, no gigs, no festivals, no places to meet other friends, no society - its great to get connected with the internet or other technical things - but the common, the real life gets totally lost. 
I saw a documentation about the Austrian Youth and their mental health problems are very very concerning - suicides have reached a new high point was said. Yeah, I can imagine christmas there in the UK, here - not that bad - but all things special were missing - no hugs, no meeting other people, no father christmas, no christmas markets, no fireworks, only few people in town, most (also me) buying things on the internet because of fear of getting infected and not wanting to go to the crowds- so, I really hope that we will get out of this, more sooner than later.

[zahidf]

All ticking along.

 

[Mimo]

4 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

Cases aren't dropping per say but they also aren't flying up exponentially...

 

Poking about the figures it seems like only Bolton has exponential looking growth. Been a lot of surge testing there too so fingers crossed…

[Mimo]

Also Erewash where there was that massive outbreak in a school (supposedly due the variant) seems to have contained it

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=ltla&areaName=Erewash

[Supernintendo Chalmers]

11 minutes ago, Hannibal Schmitt said:

My concern, not for me, but generally is that we are producing a lost generation now 

With respect, it's been a year and we are starting to see green shoots of coming out the other side. To say it's a lost generation may be overdoing it slightly, we're not talking about the effects of a six year long world war. However, I totally agree that there has been a great deal of damage done but the success of human recovery all comes down to how we treat each other. If people can't see how much of a leveller this pandemic has been, there's no hope for us. That recovery will take a little while but if we show more compassion for each other and reverse out of the "me first" culture we've created, we'll be fine.