When will this shit end?

[Mellotr0n]

5 minutes ago, st dan said:

She insisted there would definitely be a spike when all classes returned at the same time, including backing this up fancy charts and forecasts to back up her claims. She demanded it was to be gradual or we would be back to where we were again. And the reality was that she couldn’t have been more wrong. 

She has been consistently and dangerously wrong throughout.

[stuartbert two hats]

1 hour ago, Mimo said:

I guess the worry is because higher transmissibility = higher R = higher herd immunity threshold. The original plan would have been modelled around the R of the kent variant, so if we’re not careful and we blindly stick to the dates we could end up in a similar situation to Chile.

Basically the virus has probably moved the goal posts a bit.

That's it. One of the variables has changed, so the models will change.

But more optimistically, the comparisons to Chile don't quite hold, because we're already further along than they were when they unlocked, with better vaccines too.  But the point stands, even if the numbers are slightly different.

[Fuzzy Afro]

1 minute ago, Mellotr0n said:

Should've listened to someone who said the vaccines "don't work".

Great take there.

That was Devi Sridhar I’m sure. Know your fake SAGE weirdo from your batshit mental Scottish Government adviser 

[Mimo]

4 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

Of the outcomes possible with a new variant we'd (and I include govt in this) take a higher transmission rate over an increased chance of serious illness, mortality or a variant which evades the protection vaccines offer wouldn't we?

Out of those three an increase illness is preferred, then transmission, then vaccine escape.

Increased illness is more easily mitigated against as transmission is reduced and vaccines take effect, whilst more transmission has potential to cause much more illness overall. Vaccine escape causes more everything.

There were some good charts doing the rounds about that in December/January time.

[Mellotr0n]

1 minute ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

That was Devi Sridhar I’m sure. Know your fake SAGE weirdo from your batshit mental Scottish Government adviser 

Apologies. Do get various shills mixed up with each other. 

[stuartbert two hats]

19 minutes ago, zahidf said:

https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2021/may/13/is-oral-sex-more-covid-safe-than-kissing-the-expert-guide-to-a-horny-healthy-summer

 

get on it!

 

[BobWillis2]

14 minutes ago, zahidf said:

 

Do people still use that? 

[Fuzzy Afro]

1 minute ago, Mellotr0n said:

Apologies. Do get various shills mixed up with each other. 

It’s a pyramid scheme mate, very similar to Bitcoin.

 

The scientists have seen profits go through the roof in the last 12-15 months through daily paid appearances on GMB and other rolling news programmes, large social media followings, getting paid to write in the guardian etc.

 

The entire scientific community is terrified that these profits are about to dry up so there’s a renewed effort to sell the idea that the pandemic is an ongoing concern. Devi Sridhar can right a doomer article and make everyone panic and in turn, more institutions will be interested in having Gabriel Scally or Christina Pagel speak at their next Zoom event. A total self-fulfilling prophecy.

 

It’s a bit of a shame that a pandemic which once killed over 100,000 Brits has now descended into a pyramid scheme aimed at filling the wallets of a handful of fake SAGE zoomers. The good news is the government is largely ignoring them but the bad news is the media is giving them undeserved airtime. 

 

 

[Mimo]

2 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

That's it. One of the variables has changed, so the models will change.

But more optimistically, the comparisons to Chile don't quite hold, because we're already further along than they were when they unlocked, with better vaccines too.  But the point stands, even if the numbers are slightly different.

Yeah we should be absolutely fine if we take a measured response. Vaccines are working, let's do lots more as quickly as we can whilst keeping a very close eye on things. 

If we stick our fingers in our ears and try to wish it away we could well do a Chile, do't forget that what happened there was with a less transmissible variant. I don't think that'll happen though, I think (hope) Boris learnt his lesson in December. 

[stuie]

12 hours ago, efcfanwirral said:

 

Damage will already be done if they wait til after Monday when they all start going out in Manchester etc  

To be honest the only answer if the variants are indeed a concern is to extend the roadmap

One thing is almost for certain here - festivals won't be permitted now. Probably wasn't ever going to happen but with this issue, I'd be amazed if they let people gather in those numbers even with tests and vaccine proof 

 

12 hours ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I'm calling it - the June stage will be delayed. Probably not very long, maybe another five weeks.

Right... that’s enough of this thread for today! I’m off to pack my festival bag and to try and remember how to do dancing. 

[efcfanwirral]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

Yeah, possibly...not sure they want to go down the local lockdown thing again...but maybe they will have to. There's a lot of it in London too apparently.

Not doing a local lockdown could keep people within the Bolton area, I could imagine them going to Bury, Manchester etc and spreading there if everything is closed/outdoor only in their own area.  

[steviewevie]

1 hour ago, Mellotr0n said:

She has been consistently and dangerously wrong throughout.

Oh no she hasn't.

[Toilet Duck]

57 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

It’s a pyramid scheme mate, very similar to Bitcoin.

The entire scientific community is terrified that these profits are about to dry up...

 

 

Good jaysus...I'm seen some mental stuff posted in this thread, but this one takes the biscuit! 🤣

Generally speaking, scientists don't get paid for interviews in the media (I've never been, I get paid for other things outside of my main job, like advisory boards etc, but not media work). Don't get me wrong, I disagree with the mathematicians dipping their toes in biology they don't seem to fully understand (I don't see virologists/immunologists/molecular biologists & infectious disease experts falling over themselves about variants...keep an eye on them sure, but all evidence so far is still pointing in the right direction), but to suggest that the "entire scientific community" wants this to continue so we can keep making vast profits as talking heads is laughable. I'd like this to be over and done with tomorrow please, so that I can get on with my life and my work...

Honestly mate, it's nearly (mostly) over. Relax!

[Fuzzy Afro]

4 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Good jaysus...I'm seen some mental stuff posted in this thread, but this one takes the biscuit! 🤣

Generally speaking, scientists don't get paid for interviews in the media (I've never been, I get paid for other things outside of my main job, like advisory boards etc, but not media work). Don't get me wrong, I disagree with the mathematicians dipping their toes in biology they don't seem to fully understand (I don't see virologists/immunologists/molecular biologists & infectious disease experts falling over themselves about variants...keep an eye on them sure, but all evidence so far is still pointing in the right direction), but to suggest that the "entire scientific community" wants this to continue so we can keep making vast profits as talking heads is laughable. I'd like this to be over and done with tomorrow please, so that I can get on with my life and my work...

Honestly mate, it's nearly (mostly) over. Relax!

I stand corrected. Had heard rumours that Devi Sridhar in particular was making an absolute fortune from appearing on GMB almost every day. 

[thewayiam]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

They should have listened to Pagel.

Everytime someone posts something to take notice of in the media on here. The response is more scare mongering etc etc. 

What I will say is that anyone coming from a professional capacity outside of the government bollocks, that is invovled in science etc etc. Regardless of how much they over exaggerate something or whatever.....we do not know anymore than them about this virus.

1 hour ago, Havors said:

We should have stayed locked down and kept the kids off school? 😄 

They should have banned incoming travel from india and pakistan completely, that would have helped. Dont need any 'variant' of SAGE to tell us that 🙂 

Yes they should have. But then did as said below do tests and my reply to that is there.

1 hour ago, FakeEmpire said:

Oh good God, I'm not suggesting that. But some early restrictions and monitoring on travel between the UK and India would have been nice.

They did. They had a plane full of people they tested with the LFS before flying to England. The majority were positive from negative upon landing. But when I posted something about this I just got flamed for it suggesting that it didn't work well. Because everyone on here unfortunately doesn't want to here it and is a bit too emphasised sometimes on them opening the gates to bands.

We have family, we have friends, yes we want bands but they will come. They are not lost. Do you see all those cases and the deaths from those cases?, they are people who have lost people.

30 minutes ago, stuie said:

 

Right... that’s enough of this thread for today! I’m off to pack my festival bag and to try and remember how to do dancing. 

All bar the joking aside. There is a real life situation out there going on that I feel someone people haven't actually engaged properly due to pure want for their life to be back to normal.

Please try and remember that people have died from this virus and there is much more important things.

Only 3 days ago someone I met travelling lost her Dad to covid. She was 27 so her Dad isn't that old.

Close next door neighbours and family members of very close friends to me have became victim of it.

[DeanoL]

14 hours ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Scientists aren't "fearing" a delay to the roadmap, they're w*nking themselves to sleep over a delay to the roadmap.

No. No they're not. They want it over as much as you do. 

Can you not comprehend the fact that they might just be people with a more negative outlook, that are worried? Especially given they've been saying "we should be more cautious" to every single thing since March 2020 and up until March 2021 they were completely right, and the government and their scientific advisers were completely wrong.

"Fake" SAGE have been proven right more than they've been proven wrong in this whole thing. And yes, there's a chance that maybe they're right again. You're so desperate to believe that they're not, because *you* can't countenance another lockdown, that you've invented some crazy fantasy world where they're doing it because they're scared of not getting any media coverage when the pandemic goes away. Rather than the idea that they're just worried the government and their advisors have got it wrong again. Like they have at every single point up to here.

And y'know, I agree with you! I think it'll all be fine, and with the vaccine the variants won't be a problem! I just don't think someone with a different opinion is so crazy that I have to ascribe some sort of weird capitalist motivation to it.

It's uncomfortable for you because you *have* to be right this time. Because you don't know how you'll deal with another lockdown. But if you look back and ask yourself honestly, how many times have you been sure during this pandemic it was going to go one way, and it went the other? 

It hurts to even contemplate what a variant that escaped the vaccine would actually mean to our lives. I think it would totally destroy the mental health of a lot of us - hence why we don't even really countenance it as an option. And why 99% of the time I let you get away with your bull-headedness. Because I don't want to ruin your day by making you ask yourself "what if I'm wrong?". But then sometimes, like here, you cross the line and it just has to be called out.

[gooner1990]

This thread needs locking now imo.

[efcfanwirral]

10 minutes ago, thewayiam said:

Everytime someone posts something to take notice of in the media on here. The response is more scare mongering etc etc. 

What I will say is that anyone coming from a professional capacity outside of the government bollocks, that is invovled in science etc etc. Regardless of how much they over exaggerate something or whatever.....we do not know anymore than them about this virus.

Yes they should have. But then did as said below do tests and my reply to that is there.

They did. They had a plane full of people they tested with the LFS before flying to England. The majority were positive from negative upon landing. But when I posted something about this I just got flamed for it suggesting that it didn't work well. Because everyone on here unfortunately doesn't want to here it and is a bit too emphasised sometimes on them opening the gates to bands.

We have family, we have friends, yes we want bands but they will come. They are not lost. Do you see all those cases and the deaths from those cases?, they are people who have lost people.

All bar the joking aside. There is a real life situation out there going on that I feel someone people haven't actually engaged properly due to pure want for their life to be back to normal.

Please try and remember that people have died from this virus and there is much more important things.

Only 3 days ago someone I met travelling lost her Dad to covid. She was 27 so her Dad isn't that old.

Close next door neighbours and family members of very close friends to me have became victim of it.

Agree with all that last bit and I'm one of the worst for not engaging with this thing properly because I want festivals back. I've finally accepted its not over 

Obviously some of us have been sucked in by hope but at the same time I think the government should be been more honest about how this year would look- if they'd just said 17th May easing is as far as you're probably going to get it would've tempered expectations to a more realistic level. But deep down we all knew he was talking his usual bollocks about removing everything this summer 

 

Edited May 13, 2021 by efcfanwirral

[DeanoL]

1 hour ago, Barry Fish said:

On a serious note this is why I dislike the constant overall negative chuntering.  It is affecting peoples mental health and it is going to push some people over the edge.  A young lady killed herself near me the other day on the rail tracks.  I have no idea what the reason was but would any of us be surprised if it was related to the pandemic.  People like Christina and Indysage are not helping one bit.  Its fine to post the contrary viewpoint but the way its being done is entirely unhelpful.

The bizarre thing is though, those voices are mostly being amplified by those who want to shout loudly about how wrong they are. It's happening even on here, it's far worse on Twitter - just quoting these people and going "WRONG AGAIN" or what not. All the properly negative takes on this thread are being posted by people who are then rubbishing them. 

The reason that is happening, is these people are secretly scared that they might be right, and every time they post something like "FAKE SAGE AT IT AGAIN" and an article with a negative outlook, they're looking for other people to chime and go "yeah, they're wrong, here's why" and re-assure them that everything will be okay.

That's what seems to help their mental health, but the side effect is amplifying those voices which can have an impact on the mental health of others. 

[stuie]

9 minutes ago, thewayiam said:

All bar the joking aside. There is a real life situation out there going on that I feel someone people haven't actually engaged properly due to pure want for their life to be back to normal.

Please try and remember that people have died from this virus and there is much more important things.

Only 3 days ago someone I met travelling lost her Dad to covid. She was 27 so her Dad isn't that old.

Close next door neighbours and family members of very close friends to me have became victim of it.

Aside from the fact that’s a bit presumptuous, we have a low prevalence of the virus and we’ve vaccinated our vulnerable. It’s time to get our lives back. 

[stuie]

3 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Agree with all that last bit and I'm one of the worst for not engaging with this thing properly because I want festivals back. I've finally accepted its not over 

Obviously some of us have been sucked in by hope but at the same time I think the government should be been more honest about how this year would look- if they'd just said 17th May easing is as far as you're probably going to get it would've tempered expectations to a more realistic level. But deep down we all knew he was talking his usual bollocks about removing everything this summer 

 

It’s over though. 

[efcfanwirral]

3 minutes ago, stuie said:

It’s over though. 

If its 60% more transmissible, or even close to that, everyone catching it at once over the next 5 weeks (because indoors is not covkd secure just because you only take your mask off when sat at your table) will cause us some real problems with hospitalisations

As we don't know, we're doing our usual of finding out in a real world setting

Edited May 13, 2021 by efcfanwirral

[stuie]

3 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

If its 60% more transmissible, or even close to that, everyone catching it at once over the next 5 weeks (because indoors is not covkd secure just because you only take your mask off when sat at your table) will cause us some real problems with hospitalisations

As we don't know, we're doing our usual of finding out in a real world setting

That isn’t going to happen. It doesn’t take into account the number of vaccinated people or those with antibodies who are unlikely to be vectors of transmission. 

[ErnestWorthing]

3 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

If its 60% more transmissible, or even close to that, everyone catching it at once over the next 5 weeks (because indoors is not covkd secure just because you only take your mask off when sat at your table) will cause us some real problems with hospitalisations

If vaccines reduce the chances of spreading it by 90% and then of those 90% fewer infections it reduces the chance of hospitalisation by 94% are we really at risk? 

[Havors]

12 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Agree with all that last bit and I'm one of the worst for not engaging with this thing properly because I want festivals back. I've finally accepted its not over 

Obviously some of us have been sucked in by hope but at the same time I think the government should be been more honest about how this year would look- if they'd just said 17th May easing is as far as you're probably going to get it would've tempered expectations to a more realistic level. But deep down we all knew he was talking his usual bollocks about removing everything this summer 

 

Saying the 17th of May is as good as its going to get means the vaccine has been a waste of time and we going to have restrictions forever. 

It either works or it doesn't. There are always going to be variants but at the end of the day they are all still the same virus. Tweaks to vaccines and boosters will be the norm