When will this shit end?

[StuMalinas]

50 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

I thought the clotting issue presented itself much sooner than that.  Are they sure its vaccine related ?

EDIT:  just read the other posts - ignore 🙂

To be honest sounds like one is having dvt and the other has a pulmonary embolism from a DVT, likely not COVID vaccine related 

[Fuzzy Afro]

AstraZeneca have done a great job in helping us get case loads down to manageable levels but I expect it to ultimately be the vaccine of the third world while us rich countries use Pfizer and Moderna once supply issues are ironed out.

 

Dont get me wrong, AZ/J&J are better than no vaccine at all, at least while case numbers remain high, but the blood clots and slightly lower efficacious means that the mRNA options are preferred. I’m fairly confident that nearly all adults in the UK will have been offered at least one shot of mRNA by the end of the year, apart from those healthy 40-somethings who’ve had the AZ (under 40’s aren’t getting the AZ, over 50’s will get a Pfizer booster)

[Zoo Music Girl]

31 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

That’s good, we’ll not for your partner but generally speaking. I’m 35 so waiting for my turn down here. 

He is fine to wait to be honest and I don't think it will be long. Just shows that it does vary a bit from place to place! 

[BobWillis2]

I received a text from my doctors surgery today asking me if I want to get Pfizer’d. 
 

Booked in next weekend. 

[efcfanwirral]

These modelling scenarios look great (got from behind the paywall here https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/05/10/britain-not-facing-third-covid-wave/)

Hospital occupancy at 5000-6000 at the most pessimistic peak from the three models, so no danger at all to the NHS. Even the "possible ranges" aren't that bad 

 

Edited May 11, 2021 by efcfanwirral

[Fuzzy Afro]

18 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

These modelling scenarios look great (got from behind the paywall here https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/05/10/britain-not-facing-third-covid-wave/)

Hospital occupancy at 5000-6000 at the most pessimistic peak from the three models, so no danger at all to the NHS. Even the "possible ranges" aren't that bad 

 

Utter, utter relevance scramble by the modellers at this stage. 

[jimmillen]

6 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Utter, utter relevance scramble by the modellers at this stage. 

What, so they should just give up now 'cos everything's getting better? 🙄

The criticism of independent sage I can understand, although many are going way over the top with it. But to accuse the statisticians & modellers of... whatever it is you're accusing them of is just unhinged. 

Especially as this is great news in terms of unlocking & following the roadmap?! 

[stuartbert two hats]

11 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Utter, utter relevance scramble by the modellers at this stage. 

Utter, utter nonsense from Fuzzy.  The modellers have been *checks notes* modelling.  That's what they do.  We're unlocking and you're criticising them for doing some models?  Are you mad?

[fraybentos1]

2 minutes ago, jimmillen said:

What, so they should just give up now 'cos everything's getting better? 🙄

The criticism of independent sage I can understand, although many are going way over the top with it. But to accuse the statisticians & modellers of... whatever it is you're accusing them of is just unhinged. 

Especially as this is great news in terms of unlocking & following the roadmap?! 

I think he maybe means the modellers have got it so drastically wrong previously (by way underestimating how good these vaccines are) that they are now scrambling to revise these predictions so they looks more right when this is all over. 

[Ozanne]

 

[Memory Man]

48 minutes ago, BobWillis2 said:

I received a text from my doctors surgery today asking me if I want to get Pfizer’d. 
 

Booked in next weekend. 

This has happened to my wife in leeds today age 35. Booked in for this coming saturday. Its moving down the age range now! The end is in sight 🙂

Edited May 11, 2021 by Memory Man

[JoeyT]

What do you think the chances of me (32yr old in SW England) getting pfizered before the end of May are then?

[JoeyT]

Why aren't these in arms?!

 

[efcfanwirral]

10 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

I think he maybe means the modellers have got it so drastically wrong previously (by way underestimating how good these vaccines are) that they are now scrambling to revise these predictions so they looks more right when this is all over. 

Let them do whatever they want - if this is what the government is basing its decisions on now this is VERY good news 

[Memory Man]

2 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

What do you think the chances of me (32yr old in SW England) getting pfizered before the end of May are then?

Pretty good. First week or 2 of june at worst. 

Edited May 11, 2021 by Memory Man

[Ozanne]

Johnson commits to a full public inquiry within this Parliamentary session, sessions typically last a year. 

[efcfanwirral]

16 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

Why aren't these in arms?!

 

I have a theory on this - an upcoming free for all. Those who haven't had it under 35-40 can easily wait a couple more weeks for a more logical rollout. I know everyone's desperate to have the vaccine but that's probably going to get it to more people quicker.

I think think that approach makes sense when you get to a certain point - risk will be pretty even across the 20s early 30s and ultimately would be more efficient but maybe slightly less urgent while they get the system right?

Which could be what this few days is about - not just sorting the choosing a vaccine thing with AZ but upgrading the system massively to get a more varied approach. I just hope they upgrade the servers too 😂

Edited May 11, 2021 by efcfanwirral

[august1]

3 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

I have a theory on this - an upcoming free for all. Those who haven't had it under 35-40 can easily wait a couple more weeks for a more logical rollout. I know everyone's desperate to have the vaccine but that's probably going to get it to more people quicker.

I think think that approach makes sense when you get to a certain point - risk will be pretty even across the 20s early 30s and ultimately would be more efficient but maybe slightly less urgent while they get the system right?

Which could be what this few days is about - not just sorting the choosing a vaccine thing with AZ but upgrading the system massively to get a more varied approach. I just hope they upgrade the servers too 😂

If they are worried about supplies a free for all is just going to cause issues when they have to match those jab numbers 12 weeks later for second doses. Will continue to be slow and steady to avoid a bottleneck.

[efcfanwirral]

7 minutes ago, august1 said:

If they are worried about supplies a free for all is just going to cause issues when they have to match those jab numbers 12 weeks later for second doses. Will continue to be slow and steady to avoid a bottleneck.

Potentially, unless that's what they are keeping supplies for. A free for all obviously means within supply numbers, but it would make some sense to let people younger book. For example I'm mid 30s, work at home (and was doing so before the pandemic) and the riskiest thing I'll be doing before the end of July is sitting in a pub beer garden, yet I somehow apparently need a vaccine before someone in their 20s who has to work in a shop all day and will be going out loads and mixing with lots of people.

Who will get the most benefit? And which will benefit society more, considering we're clearly on dates not data so rigidly going by age won't get us opened up quicker, and the more I think about it might actually contribute more to the spread by the more social people being unvaccinated for the longest. 

Edited May 11, 2021 by efcfanwirral

[Crazyfool01]

they will stick to age I think .... then the effectiveness can be measured through the age brackets ... there were calls for certain occupations to get it straight after the clinically vulnerable but they continued by age ...once they start a free for all the data they gain from it starts to become messy and wont be able to be used in future .... should people need further top up jabs .... I think the only time any of the uk countries deviated from this was when there was a big push to get care homes done ... was it scotland ? and that slowed the rest down slightly to start ?

[BobWillis2]

1 hour ago, JoeyT said:

What do you think the chances of me (32yr old in SW England) getting pfizered before the end of May are then?

I think it all depends how far along your local area is. Doctors surgeries definitely seem to have the freedom to move down the age ranges as long as they have the supply to do so. 
 

I’m younger than you and in the SE and had my invite today, but that could be purely down to supply. It’s the same pop up vaccination tent that sets up twice a month and quite often has spares going as it’s Pfizer and they need to use them before they move on. 
I read on Twitter the other day that we have good supplies (millions) of Pfizer in storage ready to go so hopefully they start to ramp it up this week.  

[steviewevie]

1 hour ago, JoeyT said:

Why aren't these in arms?!

 

maybe we're going to make them part of a trade deal. Global Britain.

[Ozanne]

Vaccination update:

[Hannibal Schmitt]

2 hours ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

AstraZeneca have done a great job in helping us get case loads down to manageable levels but I expect it to ultimately be the vaccine of the third world while us rich countries use Pfizer and Moderna once supply issues are ironed out.

 

Dont get me wrong, AZ/J&J are better than no vaccine at all, at least while case numbers remain high, but the blood clots and slightly lower efficacious means that the mRNA options are preferred. I’m fairly confident that nearly all adults in the UK will have been offered at least one shot of mRNA by the end of the year, apart from those healthy 40-somethings who’ve had the AZ (under 40’s aren’t getting the AZ, over 50’s will get a Pfizer booster)

The AZ won`t play a big part here in Europe anymore. The EU let the contract run out. It still can happen that it gets extended and maybe it is because of taking some pressure on the firm to deliver but with the big contracts already made with the Pfizer I can`t imagine a big collaboration, more or less this seems to have ended now.

Slovakia and Austria recommend the AZ more or less only for second jabs for those who already had their first jab with the AZ, but don`t do new ones anymore or at least recommend it (Until now the AZ has been mainly vaccinated by house doctors to people who have/had serious health problem or had serious covid illness like my dad - but many of them like him only got one jab because of the already existing antibodies). The reason for the now vaccination strategy is because there is too much Pfizer and Moderna available now. 

[august1]

second dose April enters its 7th week