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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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12 minutes ago, SwedgeAntilles said:

Obviously great news that over 30s are eligible for vaccines but can't help feel this is a logistical misstep. 

I dunno, in terms of increasing throughput, you want to have as many people eligible as possible. There comes a point where the individual risks are low enough that the focus changes to cutting transmission rather than protection from disease.

In that case, I think it makes sense to include more people in the later groups.

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10 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I dunno, in terms of increasing throughput, you want to have as many people eligible as possible. There comes a point where the individual risks are low enough that the focus changes to cutting transmission rather than protection from disease.

In that case, I think it makes sense to include more people in the later groups.

Surely we should have humans carrying out the vaccinations though? 😉

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2 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

 

My assumption from last week has come a lot quicker! I guess we will be in "HI" by the next Ons release!!

On 4/23/2021 at 2:24 PM, phimill said:

Using some quick googling - iut look like 60-70% for herd immunity:

image.png.b8ed0bdbf5d3295e9bb8f27e75145106.png

Based on the anti-body study in January we had 15.3% of the pop with anti-bodies -> pre vaccination ramp up.

image.png.b42de53f52b55a7046f8b59c73caf98c.png

So we are likely to be close to 60% based on 50% population through vaccination.

Plus the additional people being vaccinated in the next three week (0.58% average per day) is another 12%.

We could be on over 70% with potential for anti-bodies by the next "unlock"

Its all looking good!

 

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26 minutes ago, SwedgeAntilles said:

Obviously great news that over 30s are eligible for vaccines but can't help feel this is a logistical misstep. 

Nicola Sturgeon wouldn't allow that to happen in Scotland, and Boris will just say its all blubber and no substance

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1 minute ago, phimill said:

My assumption from last week has come a lot quicker! I guess we will be in "HI" by the next Ons release!!

I don't know what to believe on herd immunity.

Some scientists are saying it'll come soon whilst there are articles such as the one you've linked which say it's probably impossible...

Is anyone else feeling a bit confused by the mixed messaging on this or is it only me? 

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2 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

I don't know what to believe on herd immunity.

Some scientists are saying it'll come soon whilst there are articles such as the one you've linked which say it's probably impossible...

Is anyone else feeling a bit confused by the mixed messaging on this or is it only me? 

I think its more that localised herd immunity (country based) will occur - but worldwide wont be (immediately anyway) due to the slow roll out to the rest of the world

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3 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

I don't know what to believe on herd immunity.

Some scientists are saying it'll come soon whilst there are articles such as the one you've linked which say it's probably impossible...

Is anyone else feeling a bit confused by the mixed messaging on this or is it only me? 

Media outlets publishing the things most likely to get page clicks?

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68.3% antibodies would be enough to produce herd immunity under the original R0 of 3.0. Unfortunately, the new variant is closer to 4. The good news is that we only need to get to 75% and we were at 68.3% a few weeks ago. The vaccines are getting us closer and closer.

 

I believe we will have herd immunity by mid-May. 

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3 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

68.3% antibodies would be enough to produce herd immunity under the original R0 of 3.0. Unfortunately, the new variant is closer to 4. The good news is that we only need to get to 75% and we were at 68.3% a few weeks ago. The vaccines are getting us closer and closer.

 

I believe we will have herd immunity by mid-May. 

Wonder if that may impact the take up in vaccines of the under 30s?
I just can’t see many 18 - 24 year olds rushing for the vaccine, especially if those most vulnerable are fully vaccinated and we have hit herd immunity. 

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1 hour ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

I didn't realise Wimbledon was only 25% capacity. So definitely social distancing still happening then, despite how some have interpreted the vague statements about it so far.

I guess they have to wait and see to some extent but it would be good to have some kind of scenario laid out. I.e. if x criteria are met then this can happen, if not then this etc.

This will be subject to the event research programme and the social distancing reviews.

It will be last minute to see how many they will be allowed to sell, my guess is they will go to 50% capacity

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11 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Hold your horses...

Herd immunity surely includes the entire population not just adults...  

Not really. Children are NOT effective spreaders of covid-19. That’s not to say they don’t get it or spread it at all, but it’s at a much lower rate. 

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55 minutes ago, JB15 said:

Yep, it is a maybe but it’s what they’re currently planning for. 
 

I won’t lie, it’s mainly because I have my wedding and various days of cricket I have tickets for that I want to know what’s going on, but I can’t be alone. 
 

If you treat people like adults, they’ll largely behave like them, but the government just don’t seem to trust us 

There's going to be a review next month...we'll find out then, way things are going we could be good for binning social distancing in June.

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1 hour ago, fraybentos1 said:

My friend’s mum works in a pharmacy and her colleague came in the other day WITH covid symptoms. How you can do that after a whole year of this thing blows my mind. Lo and behold she indeed had covid.

So despite being vaccinated (one dose), my friends mum has caught it and passed it on to my friend and his gf and they now all have covid. The one dose that the mum has seems to have been enough to stop symptoms and she feels fine.

Tbh at this stage she should be facing a disciplinary for knowingly coming into a pharmacist job with symptoms.

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21 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

See my post...

Herd immunity is the entire population and not just adults.

If 18 to 24 year olds skip the vaccine then this becomes much more difficult.

Herd immunity isn't necessarily the entire population. It's a concept that can be applied to specific populations based on characteristics of transmission of your vector.

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23 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

See my post...

Herd immunity is the entire population and not just adults.

If 18 to 24 year olds skip the vaccine then this becomes much more difficult.

If you need x percentage for herd immunity (say 70% for arguments sake), this figure will likely be reached before the 18 to 24 year olds are offered the vaccine won’t it?  

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