When will this shit end?

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, tigger123 said:

Deaths in single figures but nope too early, deaths 99% of Jan peak, but nope too early. If only she owned a hospitality venue, think she'd be singing a very different tune!

pub owners get on tv quite a bit too.

[steviewevie]

Ireland limiting AZ to over 60s.

[Ozanne]

5 minutes ago, tigger123 said:

Deaths in single figures but nope too early, deaths 99% of Jan peak, but nope too early. If only she owned a hospitality venue, think she'd be singing a very different tune!

She hasn't said that it's too early or that we shouldn't open up, she's say we need to remain vigilant which is true to be fair.

[tigger123]

3 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

She hasn't said that it's too early or that we shouldn't open up, she's say we need to remain vigilant which is true to be fair.

Yeah she did - the end of the 3rd video Zahidf posted she literally says "it's a little bit too early in my opinion"

Edited April 12, 2021 by tigger123

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

She hasn't said that it's too early or that we shouldn't open up, she's say we need to remain vigilant which is true to be fair.

In last clip she does say she'd prefer to see everyone vaccinated before opening up fully..

[Ozanne]

4 minutes ago, tigger123 said:

Yeah she did - the end of the 3rd video Zahidf posted she literally says "it's a little bit too early in my opinion"

 

2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

In last clip she does say she'd prefer to see everyone vaccinated before opening up fully..

She's talking about step 3 of the roadmap opening hospitality inside, she see's that as being too early because not enough will have had their 2nd dose of the vaccine by then. 

Edited April 12, 2021 by Ozanne

[Matt42]

I think the problem people have is that the goal posts keep getting shifted.

To me, if deaths are low, we’ve won the battle. Cases rising doesn’t mean much to me when testing is easily accessible and people are mixing again. 
 

We will never hit a point of zero COVID. It’s impossible. This will be a virus that will circulate and pick up at points.

But as long as deaths stay low, if not close to zero, then we have won.

We should focus our attention on countries getting absolutely ruined by this virus still. Ones that are months and months behind us. The U.K isn’t the country in danger anymore. 

Edited April 12, 2021 by Matt42

[Vulpes vulpes]

Read on another forum over 45’ are able to book there vaccine tonight.

[zahidf]

8 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

 

She's talking about step 3 of the roadmap opening hospitality inside, she see's that as being too early because not enough will have had their 2nd dose of the vaccine by then. 

Well that's ridiculous based on the current data 

[ShakeyCrash]

24 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

just me thats nervous about scenes like this I guess .... hopefully the outside factor means its fine ...

I don’t think you’re the only one that’s nervous but personally I’m happy to see these scenes. We’re both seeing the same things and are of equal intelligence and it’s just a case of personal interpretations.  My overwhelming belief (as you know) is outdoors coupled with low infection rates mean this will have little to no impact. Thinking of all the concerns from before with scenes like this, all the protests that have happened and how i have seen none that have resulted in an uptick of the virus.

[steviewevie]

5 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

I think the problem people have is that the goal posts keep getting shifted.

To me, if deaths are low, we’ve won the battle. Cases rising doesn’t mean much to me when testing is easily accessible and people are mixing again. 
 

We will never hit a point of zero COVID. It’s impossible. This will be a virus that will circulate and pick up at points.

But as long as deaths stay low, if not close to zero, then we have won.

We should focus our attention on countries getting absolutely ruined by this virus still. Ones that are months and months behind us. The U.K isn’t the country in danger anymore. 

1. The vaccine deployment programme continues successfully
2. Evidence shows vaccines are sufficiently effective in reducing hospitalisations and deaths in those vaccinated
3. Infection rates do not risk a surge in hospitalisations which would put unsustainable pressure on the NHS
4. The assessment of the risks is not fundamentally changed by new variants of concern.

Agree about helping elsewhere, but that won't be happening until our vaccine rollout is complete. Even for Ireland.

[stuartbert two hats]

Lest everyone forget, deaths were low last summer, yet they were able to get high again. Of course vaccines change that calculation considerably, but "deaths are low" isn't exactly the mic drop some of you seem to think it is.

With our current level of vaccination (or the level of vaccination in the middle of June), will lifting all restrictions lead to another round of exponential growth, spiking deaths? I don't know and I suspect none of us here have carried out a rigorous statistical model to make an educated guess. But actual SAGE have and they're not so cocky. And everyone from both SAGEs is far more qualified than most people on this thread, (with at least one exception)

They're scientists trying to add some extra nuance to the discussion. None of us actually know how things are going to pan out as we lift restrictions.

Basically, grow the fuck up, sniping at scientists saying things you don't like.

[steviewevie]

this been posted already?...looks kind of indoors....

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

with at least one exception

why thankyou.

[philipsteak]

5 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Lest everyone forget, deaths were low last summer, yet they were able to get high again. Of course vaccines change that calculation considerably, but "deaths are low" isn't exactly the mic drop some of you seem to think it is.

With our current level of vaccination (or the level of vaccination in the middle of June), will lifting all restrictions lead to another round of exponential growth, spiking deaths? I don't know and I suspect none of us here have carried out a rigorous statistical model to make an educated guess. But actual SAGE have and they're not so cocky. And everyone from both SAGEs is far more qualified than most people on this thread, (with at least one exception)

They're scientists trying to add some extra nuance to the discussion. None of us actually know how things are going to pan out as we lift restrictions.

Basically, grow the fuck up, sniping at scientists saying things you don't like.

Ha, I was reading this and thinking, thank you for calmly expressing in a clear and rational manner what I've been thinking.

And then the last line was exactly what I've been thinking

[efcfanwirral]

I've always been surprised that we're looking to open up fully before everyone is vaccinated and for a government that deals in easy to digest soundbites it would have been a lot easier than "at no time before this date", which has led to so much confusion. Just mid May for indoor hospitality, socially distanced and with all the rules, then "we'll look at the rest when everyone's vaccinated".  I'm sure it's what the scientists will have advised, maybe didn't get past the focus groups. I also think we may end up with that exact situation still, just with a lot more pissed off people. And it's probably about right (the situation, not angering people unnecessarily by over promising)

Edited April 12, 2021 by efcfanwirral

[zahidf]

 

[zahidf]

2 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

I've always been surprised that we're looking to open up fully before everyone is vaccinated and for a government that deals in easy to digest soundbites it would have been a lot easier than "at no time before this date", which has led to so much confusion. Just mid May for indoor hospitality, socially distanced and with all the rules, then "we'll look at the rest when everyone's vaccinated".  I'm sure it's what the scientists will have advised, maybe didn't get past the focus groups. I also think we may end up with that exact situation still, just with a lot more pissed off people. And it's probably about right (the situation, not angering people unnecessarily by over promising)

If the over 50s and vulnerable people are vaccinated (when they are accounting for 99% of deaths) but we still have to follow restrictions, then I don't blame people for getting angry. They are moving the goalposts.

[dotdash79]

Just now, zahidf said:

If the over 50s and vulnerable people are vaccinated (when they are accounting for 99% of deaths) but we still have to follow restrictions, then I don't blame people for getting angry. They are moving the goalposts.

They aren’t fully vaccinated just half dosed. 

[stuartbert two hats]

1 minute ago, philipsteak said:

Ha, I was reading this and thinking, thank you for calmly expressing in a clear and rational manner what I've been thinking.

And then the last line was exactly what I've been thinking

Personally, I suspect we'll be ok. The SAGE model appears to use overly pessimistic assumptions on transmission reduction.

But I don't know. I've been surprised by counter intuitive mathematics several times in my life. 

But I do know that exponential growth is not intuitive at all. It just isn't. Doubling a tiny number leads to a small number and you can keep doubling a few times and still have a small number, until all of a sudden you have a massive number and hospitals full. Does it make sense to me that it could happen again with our current level of vaccination? Hell no, but Chris Whitty seems to think it's possible and he knows more about this kind of thing than I do.

I'm going to keep an open mind and listen to everything all the scientists have to say. And reserve judgement until this pandemic is firmly in the rear view mirror.

[dingbat2]

Just booked my 1st and 2nd jab through the main NHS booking website, I am 49 and gave all my correct details so looks like they have opened it up to the late 40s crew tonight! I wasn't able to do this earlier today. Fill your boots/arms you fellow late 40s people. Woop woop! Come on AZ, let's be having you!

[steviewevie]

8 minutes ago, zahidf said:

If the over 50s and vulnerable people are vaccinated (when they are accounting for 99% of deaths) but we still have to follow restrictions, then I don't blame people for getting angry. They are moving the goalposts.

We're still following the roadmap - if on certain dates the 4 tests are passed then we move to next step of releasing restrictions. We're just one day into the 2nd step....

[ShakeyCrash]

34 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Lest everyone forget, deaths were low last summer, yet they were able to get high again. Of course vaccines change that calculation considerably, but "deaths are low" isn't exactly the mic drop some of you seem to think it is.

With our current level of vaccination (or the level of vaccination in the middle of June), will lifting all restrictions lead to another round of exponential growth, spiking deaths? I don't know and I suspect none of us here have carried out a rigorous statistical model to make an educated guess. But actual SAGE have and they're not so cocky. And everyone from both SAGEs is far more qualified than most people on this thread, (with at least one exception)

They're scientists trying to add some extra nuance to the discussion. None of us actually know how things are going to pan out as we lift restrictions.

Basically, grow the fuck up, sniping at scientists saying things you don't like.

To be fair we’ve had a vaccine before we thought we would, with efficiency beyond what we dreamed it would be, which also stops transmission to a high level. We’ve had an incredibly fast vaccine rollout and a higher than anticipated uptake in vaccinations. Combine all this with a low number of cases and repeated reports about low transmission outside and on a festival forum and I totally understand and feel the frustration. I am totally invested in festivals happening this year and am confused as to why these are still in doubt given the above. 

[Glastoboy]

48 minutes ago, Vulpes vulpes said:

Read on another forum over 45’ are able to book there vaccine tonight. 

Cheers for posting that. I get better info here than anywhere else. Just booked mine for tomorrow. 😮

 

[jimmillen]

18 minutes ago, dingbat2 said:

Just booked my 1st and 2nd jab through the main NHS booking website, I am 49 and gave all my correct details so looks like they have opened it up to the late 40s crew tonight! I wasn't able to do this earlier today. Fill your boots/arms you fellow late 40s people. Woop woop! Come on AZ, let's be having you!

I’m at the opposite end of my 40s (sorry 😉) and the booking system still saying I’m not yet eligible. 

Is it being filtered by age within the 40-49 bracket? That’s not how I’d understood the roll-out, I’d thought it would open up to everyone in that age range at once.  

Or possibly there’s a filter based on local vaccine availability? I vaguely remember someone saying something along those lines a while back on this thread...