When will this shit end?

[sjseabass]

25 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

isn't it based on an estimate...4 weeks before death rate or something? I mean there was full lockdown that started on a particular date...but people's behaviour had started to change before that anyway...and lockdown meant a sharper decline and less chance of an overwhelmed health service.

Hmmm, in which case he's only looking at R for fatal infections, rather than all infections. I can see how that might not correspond exactly with the November lockdown seeing as most of the risky stuff in terms of causing deaths (visiting a care home, for example) was already banned by that point anyway, and remained banned afterwards.

Food for thought, but in terms of the course of the pandemic as a whole, it's really hard to tie up with the settled view of how the virus spreads - you'd think one virologist, as opposed to a computational statistician, might have flagged it up by now.

Edited April 6, 2021 by theevilfridge

[Boilingtent]

9 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

Yet I will have to wear masks when I am outside on rollercoasters at Alton Towers...

Just in case...

I've long suspected that masks are more to serve as a "reminder" that shit is not over and to keep your distance

[stuie]

20 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Categorically not true 

Any information as to why it’s categorically not true? 

[JoeyT]

9 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

A tale of two nations:

Wales goes from 94 to 126 cases and 0 to 2 deaths
Scotland goes from 411 to 25 cases and 12 to 0 deaths

As much as anything else, this probably reinforces the point that at low numbers, the data is getting noisy.  But it does illustrate that we're seeing cases + death unambiguously drop everywhere.  I'm supposed to be at work at the moment, so I don't have the last 7 day averages for each nation - would be interesting to see, I'd expect to see drops in both, albeit not as dramatically as in Scotland.

 

 

 

 

Is the Wales figure a 48 hour period or are they back to normal?

[stuartbert two hats]

5 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

Is the Wales figure a 48 hour period or are they back to normal?

Good point, I'm not sure.  They didn't report yesterday, did they?  Another reason why the 7 day rolling is better.

[JoeyT]

Hospital admissions going down...

 

[JoeyT]

2 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Good point, I'm not sure.  They didn't report yesterday, did they?  Another reason why the 7 day rolling is better.

Going by the responses on that tweet it looks like it's 2 days worth and they'll be back to normal reporting tomorrow. Good news therefore!

 

[Havors]

13 minutes ago, theevilfridge said:

Hmmm, in which case he's only looking at R for fatal infections, rather than all infections. I can see how that might not correspond exactly with the November lockdown seeing as most of the risky stuff in terms of causing deaths (visiting a care home, for example) was already banned by that point anyway, and remained banned afterwards.

Food for thought, but in terms of the course of the pandemic as a whole, it's really hard to tie up with the settled view of how the virus spreads - you'd think one virologist, as opposed to a computational statistician, might have flagged it up by now.

The calculation of R is also under scrutiny in what he is saying. If you take actual fatalities and work out the rate of fatal infections you can use that to determine an R rate without some questionable assumptions that were used to form some of the models. 

At the end of the day it just shows we should not be making assumptions about lockdowns one way or the other. 

[stuartbert two hats]

1 minute ago, JoeyT said:

Going by the responses on that tweet it looks like it's 2 days worth and they'll be back to normal reporting tomorrow. Good news therefore!

 

Yeah, if you halve the numbers then instead of 

Wales goes from 94 to 126 cases and 0 to 2 deaths
Scotland goes from 411 to 25 cases and 12 to 0 deaths

You get
Wales goes from 94 to 63 cases and 0 to 1 deaths

Which makes the direction of travel in both countries look much better.

[JoeyT]

Scenes

 

[Hannibal Schmitt]

EMA Statement for the AZ connection to blood clots now expected Wednesday or Thursday.

Meanwhile in Austria Lockdown for the east including Vienna extended until middle April.

Government declared today that Opening up (Hotels, Restaurants, Travel, Sports and Cultural Activities) in Austria is expected for May when every person over 50 is vaccinated (Shops have always been open, except now in the east where they are closed until middle April).

This is the best case scenario and should be done in cautious steps, a detailed roadmap will be presented in approx. 2 weeks.
 

[steviewevie]

Secondary school pupils must continue wearing mask in class after Easter holidays, says DfE

Secondary school and college pupils in England will need to continue wearing face masks in class when they return after the Easter holidays, the Department for Education has said.

But by 17 May it is expected that masks will no longer be needed in classrooms and other communal areas, the DfE said.

[JoeyT]

“Relentlessly fall”

 

[Ozanne]

Vaccination update:

[sjseabass]

200,000 doses administered across Easter Sunday and Monday is actually more than I expected!

[steviewevie]

Vaccine hesitancy amongst ethnic minorities falling...

[zahidf]

8 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

First dose drop off expected but the second dose is very low and concerning.  Hopefully just bank holiday effect.

hopefully bank holiday effect. Unless India and Europe are stealing our doses....

Edited April 6, 2021 by zahidf

[Fuzzy Afro]

1 hour ago, stuie said:

Any information as to why it’s categorically not true? 

Because that’s how herd immunity works, the herd protect the unvaccinated. That’s why medically exempt people don’t catch measles all the time. 

[Ozanne]

18 minutes ago, theevilfridge said:

200,000 doses administered across Easter Sunday and Monday is actually more than I expected!

It's a pretty decent showing, we'll see the true impact of the shortage in supply from tomorrow I suppose.

[shoptildrop]

Bluedot has moved to 2022

Please find further information below which includes a statement from the organiser and information regarding your tickets: Original Dates: 22nd - 25th July 2021 Rescheduled Dates: 21st - 24th July 2022 Statement from Bluedot: Bluedot has made the difficult decision to make 21 - 24 July 2022 our next weekend at our home of Jodrell Bank Observatory. This means that our currently planned 2021 dates will not be taking place. The challenges of putting an event on at this time led us to ask for your feedback recently, and your suggestions and preferences are a large factor in our decision – you are as much part of bluedot as the artists, speakers and performers. The responses to our survey suggested clearly that compromises in your weekend such as changing the layout or line-up or moving to a new weekend would have been disappointing and unacceptable. We explored these changes to give us the best possible chance to return. Following your feedback, it became clear that keeping the same festival on the same weekend would have been the only option that meets the expectations we and you and our partners all share for the festival. However, due to a lack of government support around insurance for events such as ours, the risks are too great. Despite continuous calls from our industry over the past six months the Government have refused to step up and provide us with protection via a Government-backed insurance scheme. Without such a scheme, which would have provided us with security, the overwhelming risk and high upfront costs for us to hold bluedot this year are sadly just too high. As a small independent festival bluedot is left with a simple choice – make unacceptable changes to the weekend & risk the future of the festival or look ahead to 2022 and start the planning now for our greatest event yet. But do not worry. In the coming months we will be sharing plans as we reimagine bluedot’s return in 2022, exploring the hundreds of reasons you have joined us since we first set foot beneath the telescope in 2016 and curating a series of very special events exploring our universe deeper than ever before. Rest assured this doesn't mean we are on hold; with the certainty of moving the next edition to 2022 we are able to kick-start the planning now and put more time and passion than ever before into delivering an out of this world event. We’ll be sharing those plans with you in the coming weeks & months as we look forward to our return to Jodrell Bank. We are already planning some extraordinary collaborations and unique performances that will showcase the bluedot which so many of you have fallen in love with, and we hope you will continue to support this and join us in 2022 by holding on to your tickets. If you would like to request a refund, your ticket outlet will be in touch with details of how to do this shortly. We’d like to wish other events which will be going ahead our huge positivity in their plans for the coming months, and we of course thank our home of Jodrell Bank and University of Manchester for their support of bluedot, the NHS and key workers whose tireless work brings us closer to normality each day and of course you for your unwavering and continued support through the last year, and into the future. The bluedot team What happens to my tickets? Your tickets will automatically be transferred to the rescheduled date. You do not need to take any further action. I am unable to attend the rescheduled date, what should I do? You can apply for a face value refund by clicking the link below. This does not include booking fees. Time restrictions apply and you must apply by Tuesday 13th April 2021. Any applications after this date will not be accepted. Please note, if you select to refund your tickets, this may take up to 90 days to process. In response to the government restrictions to tackle COVID-19, we have had an unprecedented number of events being postponed, rescheduled or cancelled, and this is a huge task. This has also been exacerbated by our teams now working remotely, with reduced staffing and has resulted in longer processing times. Please do not contact your credit card company. By doing this, it will slow the process down and place an additional burden on our team to respond.

Edited April 6, 2021 by shoptildrop

[Homer]

In the spirit of people apparently boasting on here about breaking the rules, I'm more than happy to grass the wife up for buggering off to Bedford for the night to stay with friends. To be fait, I have taken up our allocated support bubble for my mate, so I am pretty much the only person she sees.

[stuie]

44 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Because that’s how herd immunity works, the herd protect the unvaccinated. That’s why medically exempt people don’t catch measles all the time. 

Thanks. Maybe I have misunderstood but I thought the vaccines we have reduce transmission but do not stop it completely.  Similarly, for those previously infected, they are not immune from catching it again and passing it on. A paramedic friend has just caught it for the second time.

Based on this, I still think it’s fair to say that most people will be exposed to the virus at some point or another, over the coming years. 

 

[zahidf]

 

[JoeyT]

👀

 

[km9]

31 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

👀

 

🥱