When will this shit end?

[Paul ™]

Just now, Barry Fish said:

The mind boggles how you get something like Glastonbury on without just be comfortable about removing all restrictions.

Wouldn't work. Am sure by next June we will have no restrictions at all.... hopefully! 😁

[efcfanwirral]

5 minutes ago, Paul ™ said:

Which would be mid-August at the earliest if they hit their target of end of July.

Self-reporting would never work, nor would they attempt that am sure. They used 3 locations for that 5000 test event in Spain which took all day, imagine trying to do that for an 85k capacity festival, will never happen. 

There is also a chance they decide on the pragmatic approach that once those likely to be hospitalised are sorted with two doses even, and likely way beyond those age groups, that for that last month with maybe the under 30s not vaccinated it isn't that big a deal 

[Ryan1984]

12 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

In the end Chris Whitty thinks it will come down to a debate on how much death people will accept to get their freedoms back.

I know which way I go on that debate.  My 85 year old gran agreed as well.  

He’s said it many times, hasn’t he? And that’s up to the politicians to decide.

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

31 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

I would 100% fake a test if I had £100 tickets to a gig.  I am going to get the vaccine so won't need too but if this falls onto people to do the right thing - I don't think it would work.

Obviously I wouldn't purposely infect people...  but I would take the test in a way that wouldn't return anything other than a negative result (easy done) - operating on a ignorance is bliss mentality.  

If I knew I had it - that would be different - I ain't a murderer lol 

Other than reducing your chances of getting seriously ill, whats the point of having the vaccine if you have to be tested anyway - you might still miss the gig because your carrying it anyway. 

I just don't get all this you just be jabbed to do anything stuff. 

[stuartbert two hats]

6 minutes ago, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

Other than reducing your chances of getting seriously ill, whats the point of having the vaccine if you have to be tested anyway - you might still miss the gig because your carrying it anyway. 

I just don't get all this you just be jabbed to do anything stuff. 

You're less likely to carry it if you've been vaccinated.

[JoeyT]

 

[fraybentos1]

5 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

 

We will be hitting herd immunity territory in no time!

[Ozanne]

 

 

[George_92]

 

[JoeyT]

 

[JoeyT]

Back on track with cases? Let’s see what the week brings 🤞but deaths still dropping like a stone. Roll on the bank holiday weekend 🍻

 

[JoeyT]

 

[Ozanne]

Vaccination update:

[stuartbert two hats]

17 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Vaccination update:

Not looking forward to the few weeks where the blue line goes down to almost zero.

[rascalpete]

4 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Not looking forward to the few weeks where the blue line goes down to almost zero.

Is that lull starting tomorrow? Can’t remember when the shortage was said to start and how long it’s gonna last

[stuartbert two hats]

7 minutes ago, rascalpete said:

Is that lull starting tomorrow? Can’t remember when the shortage was said to start and how long it’s gonna last

I think so, at least this week.

[incident]

Just now, stuartbert two hats said:

Not looking forward to the few weeks where the blue line goes down to almost zero.

It's not going to almost zero unless something goes dramatically wrong. 1st doses are still happening and will continue to do so, they're just being cautious about scheduling appointments too far ahead until they know how much excess they have after second doses.

I'm pretty confident in saying that they'll still do well over a million first doses every week in April (and that's my cautious "don't-want-to-look-a-tit" revised downward estimate).

[parsonjack]

45 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

 

 

I think this means there's no point measuring positivity, and deducing anything from it, if you're only testing where you expect the results to be positive?

 

[stuartbert two hats]

1 minute ago, incident said:

It's not going to almost zero unless something goes dramatically wrong. 1st doses are still happening and will continue to do so, they're just being cautious about scheduling appointments too far ahead until they know how much excess they have after second doses.

I'm pretty confident in saying that they'll still do well over a million first doses every week in April (and that's my cautious "don't-want-to-look-a-tit" revised downward estimate).

True, I was being melodramatic. But it does sound like they're going to be lower than at any other time on those graphs. The pressure on second doses is still increasing. Do you really think we'll get through a million first doses a week?  I hope so.

Hopefully Moderna will start to ramp up a bit in May.

[El Matador]

14 minutes ago, incident said:

It's not going to almost zero unless something goes dramatically wrong. 1st doses are still happening and will continue to do so, they're just being cautious about scheduling appointments too far ahead until they know how much excess they have after second doses.

I'm pretty confident in saying that they'll still do well over a million first doses every week in April (and that's my cautious "don't-want-to-look-a-tit" revised downward estimate).

Also first doses are becoming less important in terms of impact on deaths and hospitalisations 

[incident]

1 minute ago, stuartbert two hats said:

True, I was being melodramatic. But it does sound like they're going to be lower than at any other time on those graphs. The pressure on second doses is still increasing. Do you really think we'll get through a million first doses a week?  I hope so.

Hopefully Moderna will start to ramp up a bit in May.

Yeah, I do, just because Moderna and Novavax should both be in play by the end of the month and obviously they'll only be used for first doses until Juneish, combined with the AZ supply being stronger.

Beer mat maths -

We've currently done 3.57 million second doses.

As of 12th Feb, ie 11 weeks before 30th April, we had done 14.56 million first doses.

So broadly speaking, in the next 5 weeks, we need to do ~11 million second doses. Call it 2.2 million a week.. Over the past couple months the average weekly rate has fluctuated between 2 and 3.5 million, but most usually is somewhere around 3. If the numbers going forward just match what we've done to date then we should already be pretty close to having capacity for a million odd first doses a week before factoring in new vaccines.

[Toilet Duck]

3 hours ago, stuartbert two hats said:

That wasn't even technically true was it @Toilet Duck?

Howdy, not entirely sure what the disagreement is!😁(can’t keep up with this thread sometimes). It was a new virus, so many things that were thought a year ago now have been amended due to the emergence of new data. The virus is still not primarily transmitted via an airborne route, respiratory droplets are the principal way it is spread. But very fine droplets that can hang around for a bit are enough to spread it. A truly airborne virus would spread to every corner of a building with an infected person in it, but that’s not really what we see here. Anyway, we know things now we didn’t know then, nothing unusual there! (And health advice has to go with the best evidence currently available, but will adapt as that evidence changes). 

[stuartbert two hats]

10 minutes ago, incident said:

Yeah, I do, just because Moderna and Novavax should both be in play by the end of the month and obviously they'll only be used for first doses until Juneish, combined with the AZ supply being stronger.

Beer mat maths -

We've currently done 3.57 million second doses.

As of 12th Feb, ie 11 weeks before 30th April, we had done 14.56 million first doses.

So broadly speaking, in the next 5 weeks, we need to do ~11 million second doses. Call it 2.2 million a week.. Over the past couple months the average weekly rate has fluctuated between 2 and 3.5 million, but most usually is somewhere around 3. If the numbers going forward just match what we've done to date then we should already be pretty close to having capacity for a million odd first doses a week before factoring in new vaccines.

Do we have any good idea on arrival + yields of Novavax? All I hear is Q2, which means sometime in the next two months! And it's not actually been approved yet (although I presume that's because they can take their time if there isn't any)

Edited March 28, 2021 by stuartbert two hats
Added "yields"

[incident]

1 minute ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Do we have any good idea on arrival of Novavax. All I hear is Q2, which means sometime in the next two months! And it's not actually been approved yet (although I presume that's because they can take their time if there isn't any)

I can't remember the exact words, but their CEO has been anticipating something along the lines of UK approval in April, USA approval in May, with deliveries to start almost immediately after those approvals come in.

From that, I think at this point the timescale is largely in the hands of the MHRA - as with the other approvals, they'll want to be confident that they full understand all the data presented to them.

[eFestivals]

3 hours ago, Barry Fish said:

If someone had said in December we would have done 30 million by April I would have laughed you off the thread.  Amazing stuff.

Some laughed at the the govts target of 15million by mid Jan)