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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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Just now, Ozanne said:

Call me naive but I’d rather people abuse the system for financial gain if it means lives are saved as people would be isolating. 
 

I’d have them increase the amount given for self isolation if you can’t work from home as this country is low compared to others. 

No issue with that in theory - but people would take the money and then still not isolate.
The main issue being that nobody can ensure or enforce that people don’t leave their homes for 10 days - it comes down to personal levels of decency. I’ve had to isolate three times so far, and I can honestly say that me, my wife and child didn’t leave the house for 10 days at each time. Not claiming to be a saint as that is the right thing to do, but I know for a fact that many people have not been following this, and it isn’t due to financial reasons.

You could give people £1m, and even then nothing to say they’d abide to the isolating rules even then, as it just can’t be enforced. 

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Well fuck me sideways. Panic merchant Eric Feigl-Ding, the single worst member of the variant porn clown collective, moves from the USA to Austria and regularly travels between them DURING A WHOLE ASS PANDEMIC (!!!) to get his kids into in-person schooling while publicly being one of the loudest advocates for closing schools in the states.

 

I think we can all agree that Feigl-Ding is a total Walter Mitty and we can take anything he says with a pinch of salt. 

8796F74F-FA87-43EE-AB35-993359F468DA.png

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I think we can probs do 4.5- 5 million per week at peak capacity which but obviously at some point the number of second doses is going to need to be massive cause we have hit 500k days a good few times for first doses and they will need a 2nd one 12 weeks after.

I think the end is near. You can even tell from the slowing down of posting in this thread it seem we are on the way out and this shit will end soon (at least domestically).

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4 minutes ago, st dan said:

No issue with that in theory - but people would take the money and then still not isolate.
The main issue being that nobody can ensure or enforce that people don’t leave their homes for 10 days - it comes down to personal levels of decency. I’ve had to isolate three times so far, and I can honestly say that me, my wife and child didn’t leave the house for 10 days at each time. Not claiming to be a saint as that is the right thing to do, but I know for a fact that many people have not been following this, and it isn’t due to financial reasons.

You could give people £1m, and even then nothing to say they’d abide to the isolating rules even then, as it just can’t be enforced. 

Well yeah some people would still flaunt the rules but some people are jerks. Even if by increasing the support for self isolation only an small additional amount  of people isolated then it would still be worth it; although I would imagine it would encourage a larger amount of people as they would want to do the right thing. 

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Sturgeon says the Scottish government is hoping to get back to carrying out around 400,000 vaccinations per week by mid-April. That depends on supply, she says.

And she says she wants every adult in Scotland to have had their first dose of vaccine by the end of July. She is “reasonably confident” she can meet that, she says.

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7 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Sturgeon says the Scottish government is hoping to get back to carrying out around 400,000 vaccinations per week by mid-April. That depends on supply, she says.

And she says she wants every adult in Scotland to have had their first dose of vaccine by the end of July. She is “reasonably confident” she can meet that, she says.

If this is the case we are looking at 700k/day for Mid-April. Which based on an average of 310k (ish) currently would give us approx 390k/day first doses - so we will still be increasing the rate.

With these rates we will complete the full first dose vaccinations by 3rd June

Edited by phimill
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3 minutes ago, phimill said:

If this is the case we are looking at 700k/day for Mid-April. Which based on an average of 310k (ish) currently would give us approx 390k/day first doses - so we will still be increasing the rate.

With these rates we will complete the full first dose vaccinations by 3rd June

That’s good, we’ll align up with the 21st June full relaxation with protection from 1st doses!

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14 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Sturgeon says the Scottish government is hoping to get back to carrying out around 400,000 vaccinations per week by mid-April. That depends on supply, she says.

And she says she wants every adult in Scotland to have had their first dose of vaccine by the end of July. She is “reasonably confident” she can meet that, she says.

Stench of a ramping up is getting stronger

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22 hours ago, zahidf said:

@Toilet Duck did you see this? Some interesting potential studies on mixing vaccine doses

 

So, hadn't had a chance to get back to this question, but I've just had a lecture for the last hour from one of the chief investigators on the Oxford vaccine describing their work over the last year (and the 20 years prior!) on how they developed the Oxford vaccine, where things are going and all the challenges they have faced (and continue to face)...fascinating stuff. Anyway, rather than give my opinion on it, his take was that if you asked him before they started what the best approach might be, he would have said what the Russians did (two different vectors). They didn't go down that route as it means two separate vaccines need to be manufactured (complicating the logistics further down the line) and when they looked at their pre-clinical data, the anti-vector vaccine response existed, but had little impact, so they stuck with two doses of the same vector (they also started out making a 1 dose vaccine, but put in lots of different combinations at the start and it became clear that 2 was going to be better). Anyway, in terms of the strength and durability of the immune response, his take was that boosting with a different vaccine should actually be the best strategy so that's why they are looking at combining with Pfizer and others to see how it works. They are also looking at how well a variant vaccine against Brazil/SA variants protects against the original strain and the UK variant and if the updated one gives just as good protection against all variants, then they'll probably just switch all production to the updated one. They expect to have the data to support that by May or June. Also expect to boost those most vulnerable with an updated one later in the year, but shouldn't be required for most people.

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38 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Well fuck me sideways. Panic merchant Eric Feigl-Ding, the single worst member of the variant porn clown collective, moves from the USA to Austria and regularly travels between them DURING A WHOLE ASS PANDEMIC (!!!) to get his kids into in-person schooling while publicly being one of the loudest advocates for closing schools in the states.

 

I think we can all agree that Feigl-Ding is a total Walter Mitty and we can take anything he says with a pinch of salt. 

8796F74F-FA87-43EE-AB35-993359F468DA.png

 

If anyone wasn't aware of the far-right rabbit-hole which Fuzzy Afro lives in, take a look at that Jordan Schachtel's twitter feed, including the comments from his Trump-loving, consipiracy-believing followers.  This is a regular occurrence with Fuzzy Afro - previous gems he's shared with us include far-right antifa-bashing, far-right climate-change deniers and basically anything which a red-capped angry American would be proud of.  He's got a right to post it, but we need to recognise it for what it is - the far right are adept at capitalising on people's frustrations, and they're doing pretty well with this 'zero covid' straw man they're building up in order to get us spitting at scientists and gravitating towards their MAGA, no-masks, stop the steal world.

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5 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

So, hadn't had a chance to get back to this question, but I've just had a lecture for the last hour from one of the chief investigators on the Oxford vaccine describing their work over the last year (and the 20 years prior!) on how they developed the Oxford vaccine, where things are going and all the challenges they have faced (and continue to face)...fascinating stuff. Anyway, rather than give my opinion on it, his take was that if you asked him before they started what the best approach might be, he would have said what the Russians did (two different vectors). They didn't go down that route as it means two separate vaccines need to be manufactured (complicating the logistics further down the line) and when they looked at their pre-clinical data, the anti-vector vaccine response existed, but had little impact, so they stuck with two doses of the same vector (they also started out making a 1 dose vaccine, but put in lots of different combinations at the start and it became clear that 2 was going to be better). Anyway, in terms of the strength and durability of the immune response, his take was that boosting with a different vaccine should actually be the best strategy so that's why they are looking at combining with Pfizer and others to see how it works. They are also looking at how well a variant vaccine against Brazil/SA variants protects against the original strain and the UK variant and if the updated one gives just as good protection against all variants, then they'll probably just switch all production to the updated one. They expect to have the data to support that by May or June. Also expect to boost those most vulnerable with an updated one later in the year, but shouldn't be required for most people.

Interesting - that will probably affect vaccine uptake, so more need for the strict vaccine passports. Plenty are happy with AZ but want to avoid an mrna one, it sounds like there wont be a choice in the matter now 

Edit- I mean 2nd dose uptake

Though the question about supply is there - don't we have more AZ and quicker?

Edited by efcfanwirral
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Just now, efcfanwirral said:

Interesting - that will probably affect vaccine uptake, so more need for the strict vaccine passports. Plenty are happy with AZ but want to avoid an mrna one, it sounds like there wont be a choice in the matter now 

They are also looking at using the Janssen one for a subsequent boost, so that would be two adenovirus vectored vaccines (the first of which was put into a human in 1991, so we have 30 years of follow up safety data!). 

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20 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

So, hadn't had a chance to get back to this question, but I've just had a lecture for the last hour from one of the chief investigators on the Oxford vaccine describing their work over the last year (and the 20 years prior!) on how they developed the Oxford vaccine, where things are going and all the challenges they have faced (and continue to face)...fascinating stuff. Anyway, rather than give my opinion on it, his take was that if you asked him before they started what the best approach might be, he would have said what the Russians did (two different vectors). They didn't go down that route as it means two separate vaccines need to be manufactured (complicating the logistics further down the line) and when they looked at their pre-clinical data, the anti-vector vaccine response existed, but had little impact, so they stuck with two doses of the same vector (they also started out making a 1 dose vaccine, but put in lots of different combinations at the start and it became clear that 2 was going to be better). Anyway, in terms of the strength and durability of the immune response, his take was that boosting with a different vaccine should actually be the best strategy so that's why they are looking at combining with Pfizer and others to see how it works. They are also looking at how well a variant vaccine against Brazil/SA variants protects against the original strain and the UK variant and if the updated one gives just as good protection against all variants, then they'll probably just switch all production to the updated one. They expect to have the data to support that by May or June. Also expect to boost those most vulnerable with an updated one later in the year, but shouldn't be required for most people.

Cool thanks! considering how upset people were getting at a second dose being a different vaccine a few months ago, i found it interesting there was a scientific basis to it. 

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17 minutes ago, Mark E. Spliff said:

 

If anyone wasn't aware of the far-right rabbit-hole which Fuzzy Afro lives in, take a look at that Jordan Schachtel's twitter feed, including the comments from his Trump-loving, consipiracy-believing followers.  This is a regular occurrence with Fuzzy Afro - previous gems he's shared with us include far-right antifa-bashing, far-right climate-change deniers and basically anything which a red-capped angry American would be proud of.  He's got a right to post it, but we need to recognise it for what it is - the far right are adept at capitalising on people's frustrations, and they're doing pretty well with this 'zero covid' straw man they're building up in order to get us spitting at scientists and gravitating towards their MAGA, no-masks, stop the steal world.

 

Yeah, you're right. Zero-covid bashing is the domain of "far-right climate-change deniers" like Chris Whitty.

 

You can recognise that the far-right haven't had a great pandemic while also rejoicing in the fact that the scientific community at large don't support charlatans like Feigl-Ding. He'd fit in well on independent SAGE if he ever came to the UK.

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8 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Cool thanks! considering how upset people were getting at a second dose being a different vaccine a few months ago, i found it interesting there was a scientific basis to it. 

It’s almost as if the scientists know what they’re actually doing isn’t it!

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22 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Interesting - that will probably affect vaccine uptake, so more need for the strict vaccine passports. Plenty are happy with AZ but want to avoid an mrna one, it sounds like there wont be a choice in the matter now 

Edit- I mean 2nd dose uptake

Though the question about supply is there - don't we have more AZ and quicker?

from the talk today, expecting about 3 billion doses of the Oxford vaccine globally by the end of 2021, but with a lot of that back loaded to H2 (for other parts of the world). SII are doing a 100m doses per month and expected to exceed that. To put it in perspective, the record for vaccine manufacture globally prior to this was 400m doses in a year, so not only has it been developed in record time, it is being churned out at a rate we simply have never seen. All of the manufactures are looking at a similar ramp up (sorry!) in the second half of 2021, so opportunities to boost with others will probably occur around about when they would be needed. The suggestion from the talk today though was that this would be primarily in highly vulnerable individuals and that most people won't need to be getting boosts (with the same vaccine or with a different one). 

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Too many anti-maskers are zero-covid'ers are too quick to paint anyone who doesn't agree with their opinion as being on the extreme other side. In fact the vast majority fit nicely into the centre of the covid spectrum. On a scale of New Zealand to Brazil, I'd present the covid spectrum roughly as follows:

 

Zero covid: Harsh lockdown until the virus is completely eliminated and then full reopening. No half-measures. Advantage that it minimises deaths and speeds up a return to full normality. Disadvantage is that the sort of part-normality we've been able to enjoy at times in the pandemic is missed out on, and at this stage fully eliminating the disease would take an incredibly long time if even possible.

 

Near elimination: Lockdown until cases are below 1000 a day, reopen but let Test & Trace do the heavy lifting. Advantage is a faster reopening than true Zero covid, disadvantage that it risks another outbreak if T&T fails (and this is basically what happened last summer)

 

True Covid centrists: Gradually release lockdown measures as the vaccines take over the heavy lifting and just live with it like flu. Aim to fully reopen roughly in line with when the whole adult population has been offered a first dose. This is the majority opinion and is roughly in line with the approach that the government have taken.

 

Soft lockdown supporters: Those who believe that lockdowns are necessary and acceptable to prevent the NHS being overwhelmed but that they are a disproportionate restriction on individual freedom now that the NHS is under less immediate threat of collapse and the most vulnerable groups have been offered a first dose and therefore the reopening should be sped up. This opinion is not the majority but it does enjoy a fair bit of support in the UK include by the CRG group of Conservative backbenchers. Like the previous group they aim to live with covid like the flu rather than trying to eliminate it, but they have a more optimistic view on when that de-risking can be achieved (or already has been)

 

True anti-lockdown'ers: Either believe that covid is a hoax, has been blown out of proportion, or some who do agree that not locking down would overwhelm the NHS but who ideologically believe in individual freedom above all else and think that scores of extra deaths in the vulnerable categories would have been a price worth paying to avoid what we've seen in the last year. Otherwise known as the Bolsonaro approach.

Edited by Fuzzy Afro
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10 minutes ago, Hannibal Schmitt said:

Never heard of that man here in Austria, but we have some right wing clowns ourselves who want to end all restrictions and open up everything now (you can recognise them as they don`t wear masks in the parlament and go with demonstrations against the government on the streets)

Feigl-Ding is a variant porn clown. He's the kind of guy that will use emotionally triggering phrases like "new normal" and scaremonger about hypothetical new variants and argue that even the very careful reopening plan laid out is too fast and too risky. They're not quite as damaging as the right wing clowns you mention, but it's a close run thing for sure.

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7 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Too many anti-maskers are zero-covid'ers are too quick to paint anyone who doesn't agree with their opinion as being on the extreme other side. In fact the vast majority fit nicely into the centre of the covid spectrum. On a scale of New Zealand to Brazil, I'd present the covid spectrum roughly as follows:n that de-risking can be achieved (or already has been)

...

True anti-lockdown'ers: Either believe that covid is a hoax, has been blown out of proportion, or some who do agree that not locking down would overwhelm the NHS but who ideologically believe in individual freedom above all else and think that scores of extra deaths in the vulnerable categories would have been a price worth paying to avoid what we've seen in the last year. Otherwise known as the Bolsonaro approach.

You're effectively claiming to favour a 'middle way' narrative here.  We both know that the cess-pool of social media you inhabit doesn't believe in this kind of sensible, risk-based, scientific approach to controlling the pandemic.  Your Jordan Schachtel clown beautifully demonstrates this, e.g. with his retweet from 5th March:

"A year ago the American people were utterly blindsided by unthinkable and unAmerican lockdowns. We had no idea why it was happening. Now with this new email dump, we know there was a small cabal of insane people consulting directly with Chinese communists to destroy liberty."

You're then trying to persuade us that the far-right's enemies like Faucci and Eric Feigl Ding are zero-covid lunatics.  That's a great straw man, until you actually look at what they're saying.  They're scientists using the evidence to balance risk.  Feigl Ding isn't opposing schools reopening, but pointing out that the evidence points to better ventilation being the main factor which can be improved to lower the risk.  But your far-right friends prefer to use the same insane rhetoric which you've been using on this forum as it's easy to whip up a bunch of frustrated people, who just want to see their families, into believing the pandemic is just a myth created by scientists/shady cabal/[insert right-wing conspiracy here]

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7 minutes ago, Mark E. Spliff said:

You're effectively claiming to favour a 'middle way' narrative here.  We both know that the cess-pool of social media you inhabit doesn't believe in this kind of sensible, risk-based, scientific approach to controlling the pandemic.  Your Jordan Schachtel clown beautifully demonstrates this, e.g. with his retweet from 5th March:

"A year ago the American people were utterly blindsided by unthinkable and unAmerican lockdowns. We had no idea why it was happening. Now with this new email dump, we know there was a small cabal of insane people consulting directly with Chinese communists to destroy liberty."

You're then trying to persuade us that the far-right's enemies like Faucci and Eric Feigl Ding are zero-covid lunatics.  That's a great straw man, until you actually look at what they're saying.  They're scientists using the evidence to balance risk.  Feigl Ding isn't opposing schools reopening, but pointing out that the evidence points to better ventilation being the main factor which can be improved to lower the risk.  But your far-right friends prefer to use the same insane rhetoric which you've been using on this forum as it's easy to whip up a bunch of frustrated people, who just want to see their families, into believing the pandemic is just a myth created by scientists/shady cabal/[insert right-wing conspiracy here]

 

I think putting Feigl-Ding and Fauci in the same sentence is a big mistake here.

 

Remember that Fauci is basically the American version of Chris Whitty. He has the ear of their government, has managed their response throughout and will come out of it looking pretty good. I've never once criticised him and you're putting words in my mouth claiming that I have.

 

My criticism is aimed solely at the hypocrisy of Feigl-Ding.

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32 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

from the talk today, expecting about 3 billion doses of the Oxford vaccine globally by the end of 2021, but with a lot of that back loaded to H2 (for other parts of the world). SII are doing a 100m doses per month and expected to exceed that. To put it in perspective, the record for vaccine manufacture globally prior to this was 400m doses in a year, so not only has it been developed in record time, it is being churned out at a rate we simply have never seen. All of the manufactures are looking at a similar ramp up (sorry!) in the second half of 2021, so opportunities to boost with others will probably occur around about when they would be needed. The suggestion from the talk today though was that this would be primarily in highly vulnerable individuals and that most people won't need to be getting boosts (with the same vaccine or with a different one). 

Amazing thanks! Are we definitely locked into two doses for everyone, and also them being 3 months apart?

I don't know if you saw the debate last week about the one dose/two dose thing for getting into festivals over this summer - what are your thoughts on that? I can envisage issues with the July/August ones if younger are waiting for their second doses but not sure if they're likely to relax the entry rules for that situation?

Edited by efcfanwirral
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13 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Feigl-Ding is a variant porn clown. He's the kind of guy that will use emotionally triggering phrases like "new normal" and scaremonger about hypothetical new variants and argue that even the very careful reopening plan laid out is too fast and too risky. They're not quite as damaging as the right wing clowns you mention, but it's a close run thing for sure.

so he`s is also like our health mininister who says at every press conference, and there have been quiet a few from last year on, that "situation is very worring (now because of the UK variant) and next weeks will be decisive" - it is like holding a carrot in front of the nose of the rabbit but pulling it away when the rabbit wants to get there and eat it - but now is the effect of all those dooming standard phrases he uses that people don`t take him serious (he is left wing) and right wing people get angry, very angry, so angry that they have their own conspiracy theories.

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