When will this shit end?

[Lycra]

1 hour ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Here comes the ramp up 

No evidence of a ramp up so far. Younger age brackets are being invited to make vaccination appointments for dates many weeks away. Part of new deliveries are being held back for second dose programme which commences soon.

Note: By mid April vaccination rate must achieve 7 million/week in order to maintain current first dose rate and give second vaccinations.

Edited March 10, 2021 by Lycra

[steviewevie]

5 minutes ago, Barry Fish said:

I have to say I am happy to bash the Tories on Test and Trace but its pretty bloody obvious that without it there would of been a lot more deaths.  Surely that is just simple maths ?

What they are really saying was stopping x number of extra deaths really worth £37 billion ?  Answers on a postcard.

I think maybe the question is could they have saved a lot more deaths then they did with the £37billion?

[Fuzzy Afro]

7 minutes ago, Lycra said:

No evidence of a ramp up so far. Younger age brackets are being invited to make vaccination appointments for dates many weeks away. Part of new deliveries are being held back for second dose programme which commences soon.

Well a ramp up in doses doesn’t necessarily mean a ramp up in first doses. A ramp up would be necessarily just to keep the first doses constant and avoid a ramp down, because the second dose requirement from April onwards is pretty much fixed. But a ramp up in overall doses is clearly coming and we should celebrate the fact that we are vaccinating our way out of this mess. 

[Simsy]

22 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

they did a good job on the testing...it was the tracing side of it that wasn't so good...

The lack of tests when schools went back in September was a problem. People being told their nearest available test centre was hundreds of miles away.

[Reckoner]

17 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Sorry, I keep thinking you are in Australia for some reason rather than Singapore! 

Australian in Singapore so a keen eye on both!

[Lycra]

2 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Well a ramp up in doses doesn’t necessarily mean a ramp up in first doses. A ramp up would be necessarily just to keep the first doses constant and avoid a ramp down, because the second dose requirement from April onwards is pretty much fixed. But a ramp up in overall doses is clearly coming and we should celebrate the fact that we are vaccinating our way out of this mess. 

Note: By mid April vaccination rate must achieve 7 million/week in order to maintain current first dose rate and give second vaccinations.

[steviewevie]

Just now, Simsy said:

The lack of tests when schools went back in September was a problem. People being told their nearest available test centre was hundreds of miles away.

oh yeah, remember all that now....but it did get kind of sorted eventually, right?

[BobWillis2]

1 hour ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Whilst the government did ignore advice to lock down earlier in both September/October and December, leading to embarrassing u-turns when the NHS got into trouble, it probably IS fair to criticise the scientists over the first wave.

 

SAGE minutes reveal that the government did follow the scientific advice on wave 1. The problem was that the advice was tailored to a flu pandemic and was based around fomite transmission (I.e. big focus on hand washing and the idea that face coverings are counter productive) as opposed to airborne transmission and perhaps more importantly, the focus on mitigating the virus to reach herd immunity rather than trying to contain and suppress it. 
 

In fact the government wanted to lock down before the scientists officially recommended it. Dominic Cummings bizarrely turned up to SAGE meetings to advocate a lockdown just weeks after his “herd immunity, protect the economy and if some pensioners die then so be it” remark.

 I think at the future enquiry Whitty and Vallance will be thrown under the bus at least with regards to their behaviour in early to mid March. 

Vallance stood in front of the press in mid March and showed off his exponential growth graph and explained the point at which was best to lockdown. They didn’t want to wait until we were too far up the growth and it was out of control but they also didn’t want to go too early and have a lockdown when not a lot was happening. 
That policy and advice to not lock down too early because “not a lot was happening” cost 10’s of thousands of lives in this country. 

[steviewevie]

There's no doubt scientists got some things wrong at start...they were taking all sorts of things into account, behavourial science, the economy etc etc. But, what you do is you learn from mistakes so you don't repeat them.

[Fuzzy Afro]

8 minutes ago, Lycra said:

Note: By mid April vaccination rate must achieve 7 million/week in order to maintain current first dose rate and give second vaccinations.

Unlikely to get above 4-5m a week so there's no chance we can "maintain" current first dose rate, it WILL slow down. But on those supply numbers we could still be looking at 1.25m first doses per week in April and May, which is a pretty good outcome.

[steviewevie]

1 hour ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

I think at the future enquiry Whitty and Vallance will be thrown under the bus at least with regards to their behaviour in early to mid March. 

I don't think anyone should be thrown under the bus, not scientists, not even politicians, not even Boris Johnson, but lessons need to be learned for next time. Infact they should have had that sort of enquiry last summer instead of fuckin about with some cummings civil service hard rain.

Edited March 10, 2021 by steviewevie

[st dan]

The worst thing about delaying the first lockdown was the fact that it achieved very little, but resulted in many thousands of extra deaths. 
I would have understand the decision to delay if there was a possibility a lockdown could have been avoided altogether, but seemingly everybody knew it was coming and was unavoidable. We even had the advantage of being able to observe other European countries, mainly Italy and Spain, and still waited and waited. It was totally inexcusable behaviour and something they should be held to account for in the inquests that will follow.   

Edited March 10, 2021 by st dan

[Ozanne]

37 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

and actually they have improved tracing quite a bit I think....but then it's getting people to self isolate....

Yeah for sure, they needed to provide better financial support for people that are isolating. 

[st dan]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

Yeah for sure, they needed to provide better financial support for people that are isolating. 

Not that simple though unfortunately - there would have been hundreds of thousands abusing the system if they had supported everybody that was isolating. And it could have actually resulted in people wanting to isolate and coming into contact with people that had the virus on purpose. 
They did offer means tested support of £500 to those who needed it most financially, and I’m not sure what other options they could have taken to further this without leaving themselves open for fraudulent claims. 

[steviewevie]

 

[Lizzim]

7 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Unlikely to get above 4-5m a week so there's no chance we can "maintain" current first dose rate, it WILL slow down. But on those supply numbers we could still be looking at 1.25m first doses per week in April and May, which is a pretty good outcome.

If you are talking about the supply figures extrapolated from the scotland site - then these are cumulative : allocated/delivered up to the 8th March.  Not additional.     

[Toilet Duck]

17 minutes ago, Gregfc15 said:

Australian in Singapore so a keen eye on both!

Ah, that's it! I knew there was a connection! Singapore is petty cool too though, thoroughly enjoyed my time there as well (though I'd been rather ill in other parts of SE Asia, so getting to somewhere spotless was lovely!). 

[Fuzzy Afro]

5 minutes ago, Lizzim said:

If you are talking about the supply figures extrapolated from the scotland site - then these are cumulative : allocated/delivered up to the 8th March.  Not additional.     

I am talking about the supply figures that are projected going forward, not accounting for the possibility of a fourth or even fifth vaccine becoming available.

[efcfanwirral]

19 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Ah, that's it! I knew there was a connection! Singapore is petty cool too though, thoroughly enjoyed my time there as well (though I'd been rather ill in other parts of SE Asia, so getting to somewhere spotless was lovely!). 

Walking round by the river at night in 100% safety was my favourite novelty over there. Still took a couple of days to believe it really is that safe though...

[DeanoL]

22 hours ago, Barry Fish said:

Depressing when you think about it.

Its going to be a long road back for some.

I think the residual social distancing thing is important. I don't think it's as scary as it sounds. Social distancing includes a lot of different things, and some just won't be residual: people will go meet their friends and family and be in close proximity to them.

Where we will see residual impacts, that will be beneficial, is with interactions with strangers. It will maybe stop being the norm to shake the hand of every single person you meet in a business context. Or at least it'll no longer be seen a bit rude to say "ah, I won't, I have a sniffle".

When you're in a supermarket, and someone else is at the shelf you want, looking at it, maybe you'll wait until they're done rather than leaning in front of them to get your milk.

If you're in town and want to get past someone but can't without brushing against them, maybe you'll just wait instead. 

None of this will make your life loads worse, but this, plus people being more aware of what surfaces they're touching, and washing their hands, will add up to a decent impact on all infectious disease.

If there are any social distancing guidelines still in place by September I would imagine them to be:

• Wear a mask on public transport if you're ill or have a cough
• Don't touch strangers

I'd argue these are things we should have already been doing out of politeness anyway. And if this pandemic makes these two things the norm then at least it will have done something good. Most of my female friends are perfectly happy to never get back to the "normal" of being touched by men they don't know in pubs and bars.

[Mellotr0n]

Just now, DeanoL said:

I think the residual social distancing thing is important. I don't think it's as scary as it sounds. Social distancing includes a lot of different things, and some just won't be residual: people will go meet their friends and family and be in close proximity to them.

Where we will see residual impacts, that will be beneficial, is with interactions with strangers. It will maybe stop being the norm to shake the hand of every single person you meet in a business context. Or at least it'll no longer be seen a bit rude to say "ah, I won't, I have a sniffle".

When you're in a supermarket, and someone else is at the shelf you want, looking at it, maybe you'll wait until they're done rather than leaning in front of them to get your milk.

If you're in town and want to get past someone but can't without brushing against them, maybe you'll just wait instead. 

None of this will make your life loads worse, but this, plus people being more aware of what surfaces they're touching, and washing their hands, will add up to a decent impact on all infectious disease.

If there are any social distancing guidelines still in place by September I would imagine them to be:

• Wear a mask on public transport if you're ill or have a cough
• Don't touch strangers

I'd argue these are things we should have already been doing out of politeness anyway. And if this pandemic makes these two things the norm then at least it will have done something good. Most of my female friends are perfectly happy to never get back to the "normal" of being touched by men they don't know in pubs and bars.

The potential issue with the first few paragraphs of your post is everyone's behaviour is different - some will be more polite and respectful as you say, but many won't - so this will continue to cause all sorts of social anxiety/divisiveness. 

I do however totally agree on your last couple of points.

[DeanoL]

 

20 hours ago, gizmoman said:

100%, the psychological harm being inflicted on kids at the moment is criminal.

I think it's the same impact on everyone, it's just adults tend to have a better idea of how to deal with it. I think we're also seeing it in adults that have never had to deal with any mental health issues before though. Ironically those of us who have seem to be better armed with coping strategies.

13 hours ago, gizmoman said:

You really didn't, it has to be wondered why there seems to be an effort to undermine the zero-risk benefits of taking Vit. D

In the short term, lots of people buying up loads to take very high doses does cause issues with supply though, which can be a risk for those who depend on the supplement for more urgent medical reasons. 

[DeanoL]

1 minute ago, Mellotr0n said:

The potential issue with the first few paragraphs of your post is everyone's behaviour is different - some will be more polite and respectful as you say, but many won't - so this will continue to cause all sorts of social anxiety/divisiveness. 

Yup - and either we go through that and reach some sort of societal balance naturally, or the government continue to issue guidance and direct it, if only to reduce the conflict.

[Ozanne]

42 minutes ago, st dan said:

Not that simple though unfortunately - there would have been hundreds of thousands abusing the system if they had supported everybody that was isolating. And it could have actually resulted in people wanting to isolate and coming into contact with people that had the virus on purpose. 
They did offer means tested support of £500 to those who needed it most financially, and I’m not sure what other options they could have taken to further this without leaving themselves open for fraudulent claims. 

Call me naive but I’d rather people abuse the system for financial gain if it means lives are saved as people would be isolating. 
 

I’d have them increase the amount given for self isolation if you can’t work from home as this country is low compared to others. 

[philipsteak]

7 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

I think the residual social distancing thing is important. I don't think it's as scary as it sounds. Social distancing includes a lot of different things, and some just won't be residual: people will go meet their friends and family and be in close proximity to them.

Where we will see residual impacts, that will be beneficial, is with interactions with strangers. It will maybe stop being the norm to shake the hand of every single person you meet in a business context. Or at least it'll no longer be seen a bit rude to say "ah, I won't, I have a sniffle".

When you're in a supermarket, and someone else is at the shelf you want, looking at it, maybe you'll wait until they're done rather than leaning in front of them to get your milk.

If you're in town and want to get past someone but can't without brushing against them, maybe you'll just wait instead. 

None of this will make your life loads worse, but this, plus people being more aware of what surfaces they're touching, and washing their hands, will add up to a decent impact on all infectious disease.

If there are any social distancing guidelines still in place by September I would imagine them to be:

• Wear a mask on public transport if you're ill or have a cough
• Don't touch strangers

I'd argue these are things we should have already been doing out of politeness anyway. And if this pandemic makes these two things the norm then at least it will have done something good. Most of my female friends are perfectly happy to never get back to the "normal" of being touched by men they don't know in pubs and bars.

 

Don't know what our long term policy will be, but I'm going to insist that the plastic screens stay at our reception. The number of times I've coughed at in the past. And for that matter, the state of the screens when I clean them shows what otherwise would've got through to me