When will this shit end?

[Toilet Duck]

44 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

It’s not about the probability of catching the virus, it’s about the likely outcome if you do. Risk increases exponentially with age. You might have a 45 year old who works from home, drives to Tesco once a week etc versus a 22 year old teacher who uses the tube every day and is teaching a class full of pre teens. 
 

Sure, the latter is FAR more likely to catch covid. But if she does, she’s highly unlikely to require medical attention at all let alone hospital treatment. The 45 year olds is less likely to catch the virus, but if they do then there is a much higher risk of hospitalisation (albeit still low compared to this in the top 9 groups)

 

Remember that teachers aren’t being artificially pushed down the list. A very significant percentage of teachers will already have been vaccinated in groups 1-9, either due to being over 50 or due to having an underlying health condition that makes them a higher risk. Another significant percentage are in their 40’s, so would among the first to get vaccinated after group 9 regardless of whether age or occupation was used.

 

So that leaves teachers in their 20’s and 30’s without underlying health problems. Yes there’s a high risk of them catching the virus but the data overwhelmingly shows that it’s likely to be unserious in these people. The JCVI’s purpose is to prevent serious illness and death and they’ll have done modelling to prove why age is the best metric. 

Nice bit of stereotyping dude! 😜

When it comes to the vaccination programme, if you are flat out vaccinating at capacity, it probably makes sense to just continue with a simple prioritisation order like you guys already have. As @stuartbert two hats has previously posted, the logistics of complicating things probably ends up with fewer people receiving their vaccine in time. If you aren't flat out and supply is slowing you down, then there's merit to targeting those that are driving infection rates (especially now as we have strong emerging evidence that the vaccines dampen down transmission). So, deal with mortality first (oldest, frailest priority group), morbidity next (older adults, those with underlying conditions) and then deal with transmission (so focus on places where we know large clusters are originating like meat packing plants, factories, those living in cramped accommodation etc). Cutting transmission has knock-on effects on risk elsewhere in society. That's the priority list here at the moment, but that may change if we ever get a decent supply of vaccine as just having to check DOB to determine eligibility is obviously far more efficient! 

 

[JoeyT]

 

[xxialac]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-spain/just-2-in-spain-refuse-coronavirus-vaccine-covid-19-incidence-declining-idUSKBN2AP2P3

Evidence that vaccination take-up rates have nothing to do with the EU.

[JoeyT]

4 minutes ago, xxialac said:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-spain/just-2-in-spain-refuse-coronavirus-vaccine-covid-19-incidence-declining-idUSKBN2AP2P3

Evidence that vaccination take-up rates have nothing to do with the EU.

This just goes to show how ludicrous Macron & Merkel have been more than anything.

[st dan]

3 minutes ago, xxialac said:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-spain/just-2-in-spain-refuse-coronavirus-vaccine-covid-19-incidence-declining-idUSKBN2AP2P3

Evidence that vaccination take-up rates have nothing to do with the EU.

But as Spain is only offering the Oxford/AZ to 18-55 year olds, assuming they aren’t at this stage of the rollout yet, so scepticism of it can’t be a factor just yet?  

[MEGABOWL]

30 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Kids also appear to mount a different immune response when they do actually get infected (using non-specific, innate anti-viral immunity), which is currently the best explanation for why they predominantly only experience asymptomatic or mild disease...even kids that were PCR-negative but had household exposure switched on a strong innate immune response to protect themselves (this is a pretty amazing finding!)...still more work to do to fully characterise what is going on, but we learn more and more all the time!

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-21414-x

That’s absolutely amazing 😳

[StuMalinas]

[xxialac]

6 minutes ago, st dan said:

But as Spain is only offering the Oxford/AZ to 18-55 year olds, assuming they aren’t at this stage of the rollout yet, so scepticism of it can’t be a factor just yet?  

Ah, that's a fair point (though they are injecting the AZ doses they have already).

[JoeyT]

I have a feeling today's total positive cases is going to be a low one. 

Other nations reporting some decent sized drops so let's hope England can do the same...

[stuartbert two hats]

24 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Nice bit of stereotyping dude! 😜

When it comes to the vaccination programme, if you are flat out vaccinating at capacity, it probably makes sense to just continue with a simple prioritisation order like you guys already have. As @stuartbert two hats has previously posted, the logistics of complicating things probably ends up with fewer people receiving their vaccine in time. If you aren't flat out and supply is slowing you down, then there's merit to targeting those that are driving infection rates (especially now as we have strong emerging evidence that the vaccines dampen down transmission). So, deal with mortality first (oldest, frailest priority group), morbidity next (older adults, those with underlying conditions) and then deal with transmission (so focus on places where we know large clusters are originating like meat packing plants, factories, those living in cramped accommodation etc). Cutting transmission has knock-on effects on risk elsewhere in society. That's the priority list here at the moment, but that may change if we ever get a decent supply of vaccine as just having to check DOB to determine eligibility is obviously far more efficient! 

 

I'm really quite surprised meat processing plant workers haven't yet been prioritised in the UK, especially given the evidence that vaccines cut transmission.

[st dan]

2 minutes ago, xxialac said:

Ah, that's a fair point (though they are injecting the AZ doses they have already).

Assuming they’ve been used for the younger, front line health and care workers? But glad it doesn’t seem to have been welcomed as badly as it has in France and Germany, and hopefully it continues. 

[Crazyfool01]

So I’ve just seen on a friends fb that he is saying the world has reached herd immunity as he predicted 😀 and thats why cases are dropping worldwide ... there is obviously a bit of vaccine effect in there , any other explanations ? He’s an antilockdowner 

[Zoo Music Girl]

45 minutes ago, rascalpete said:

Hey, I doubt it will matter I think you can volunteer in any of the sites but I’m not sure. I didn’t get auto confirmation until the following day after but I thought it was strange I didn’t get instant confirmation so emailed the resourcing team a couple hours after who confirmed I was booked in the shift, I think the resource teams email addresses are in the GRS initial email. The north one was pretty responsive, hope this helps

Thank you, that's very helpful. I'll try emailing! 

[st dan]

1 minute ago, crazyfool1 said:

So I’ve just seen on a friends fb that he is saying the world has reached herd immunity as he predicted 😀 and thats why cases are dropping worldwide ... there is obviously a bit of vaccine effect in there , any other explanations ? He’s an antilockdowner 

It can’t be a coincidence that the cases are falling fairly rapidly as the northern hemisphere moves into the warmer months. That coupled with vaccine rollout, natural immunity from previously contracting the virus, and partial lockdowns still in place in many countries. It’s a good concoction in bringing the global case numbers right down. 

[fraybentos1]

3 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

So I’ve just seen on a friends fb that he is saying the world has reached herd immunity as he predicted 😀 and thats why cases are dropping worldwide ... there is obviously a bit of vaccine effect in there , any other explanations ? He’s an antilockdowner 

World wide it can't really be a vaccine effect imo. Barely any countries have dished out enough vaccines to cover over even 10 percent of their population.

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, fraybentos1 said:

World wide it can't really be a vaccine effect imo. Barely any countries have dished out enough vaccines to cover over even 10 percent of their population.

Yeah that’s kind of my point ... although there are some areas in amongst that where cases were high like the U.K. where the vaccinations are good ... do we have a much greater number that have had covid than it’s thought currently ... as we emerge from winter ... I guess some of the countries that head towards winter have better control of it ... 

[Fuzzy Afro]

22 minutes ago, StuMalinas said:

Over 500,000 doses is good but you guys just wait. 750k days coming up in the forthcoming weeks. 

[rascalpete]

9 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Thank you, that's very helpful. I'll try emailing! 

Good luck with your shifts 🙂

[Simsy]

3 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Yeah that’s kind of my point ... although there are some areas in amongst that where cases were high like the U.K. where the vaccinations are good ... do we have a much greater number that have had covid than it’s thought currently ... as we emerge from winter ... I guess some of the countries that head towards winter have better control of it ... 

Yeah, I think spring in Europe/USA is going to cause numbers to fall and autumn in Australia/New Zealand isn't going to lead to much of an increase.

[StuMalinas]

10 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Over 500,000 doses is good but you guys just wait. 750k days coming up in the forthcoming weeks. 

Can you see us potentially hitting million days in the coming months, especially when j and j and novavax come online 

[zahidf]

 

[Fuzzy Afro]

4 minutes ago, StuMalinas said:

Can you see us potentially hitting million days in the coming months, especially when j and j and novavax come online 

I’m not privy to exactly when they come online (my data only extends to the vaccines already approved) but I’m of the opinion that we can offer every adult a first dose by mid-May to early-June regardless of these coming online.
 

What I’d probably do, given the recent news about J&J performing well against variants, is try to defer them into the autumn and use them as a booster shot (likely only for groups 1-9 given we have 30m of them)

 

Novavax I could see us donating to countries who need them. 
 

 

[Fuzzy Afro]

For those if you wondering, this is the weekly supply data for Scotland only (multiply by 12.2 to get the UK supply)

 

The recent low supplies were expected and we should have some bumper weeks coming soon. 

[Zoo Music Girl]

23 minutes ago, rascalpete said:

Good luck with your shifts 🙂

No sooner had I emailed them but I got confirmation of one of the dates! Typical! Thanks though - am pleased to be getting started, even if a couple of weeks away yet 🙂

[19liam75]

8 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

For those if you wondering, this is the weekly supply data for Scotland only (multiply by 12.2 to get the UK supply)

 

The recent low supplies were expected and we should have some bumper weeks coming soon. 

29th February 2021???