When will this shit end?

[Leyrulion]

1 hour ago, Smeble said:

That’s great except that masks are worn to protect others, not the wearer. So it will be selfish people deciding it’s their right not to wear a mask that risks others. 

Isn't the idea that by the time legal restrictions are removed you won't be posing as significant a risk to others because of low case rates and vaccinations?

 

[Crazyfool01]

just a mildly achey arm today from pfizer jab  ... happy with that ... so im off to work .... oh and i got a negative test today  because the zoe app asked if i wanted one due to having a sore throat ... start the day on a positive note 🙂 

[Reckoner]

9 hours ago, steviewevie said:

for balance 🙂

Thanks for posting this as the original article had a number of issues. Seemed to essentially boil down to “we had a bit of a half assed go at things, and it didn’t work, so no point trying again”,  

Again, as with all articles against zero covid , and with the full acknowledgement of my own bias, I just can’t understand what people read in the rebuttal above that they actually disagree with. The common gripe seems to not wanting to be locked down, when it’s the constant cycle of lockdown/open up/long lockdown that is being avoided. A type of normality with the possibility of the odd short lockdown (although Singapore and Sydney have squashed outbreaks without the need for widespread restrictions) certainly seems a better option than being locked down for 8 of the last 12 months, destroying economies, jobs, mental health and lives.

I still think the discussion on Zero-Covid is worthwhile for the UK, although the successful vaccine and it’s roll-out obviously changes how you achieve that.  The UK has a chance to chart a new course out of this somewhere between the current trains of thought, as the vaccine may actually provide the chance to ‘live alongside the virus’.

In saying that, considering cases are on the drop and you are already in lockdown, I’m not sure why you wouldn’t want to do everything possible to drive them as low as possible and then keep doing that once lockdown is over. The mass of vaccinations based on the early results would seem to be doing the bulk of the heavy lifting soon enough anyway. Alongside proper quarantine, a working test, track and isolate system and financial support for those who need to isolate who have still managed to catch it, much of normality will return while continuing to mitigate the risk.

[Fuzzy Afro]

6 hours ago, Smeble said:

That’s great except that masks are worn to protect others, not the wearer. So it will be selfish people deciding it’s their right not to wear a mask that risks others. 

Yeah, and? 

[Ozanne]

Covid: English secondary summer schools part of catch-up plan https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/education-56175893

[zahidf]

⁰

[Suprefan]

Well how bout that, a Vaccine passport requirement for sporting events. Who wouldve ever thought. But how foolproof is the NHS app and can it show to fake a vaccination or not. Everyone gonna run screenshots to get through the gates or vaccine registration info that has to coincide with the ticket buyers info?  Hopefully if its a barcode they use the technology of it rotating so that screenshots cant be valid.

[Mr.Tease]

For those wondering what data is being used as the reasoning for a gradual easing of the lockdown:

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/feb/24/the-forecasts-that-spooked-boris-johnson-into-slowing-exit-from-lockdown

The forecasts that spooked Boris Johnson into slowing exit from lockdown

PM’s hands tied by gloomy prediction that rapid easing would lead to even fuller hospitals than in January

 

Here is some of the evidence the government and its scientific advisers have been considering, outlining the risks of lifting restrictions too early.

Deaths

Based on modelling by Warwick University and Imperial College London, the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M), a subgroup of the Scientific Advisory Group on Emergencies (Sage), warned that “rapid relaxation [of restrictions] results in a very large wave of hospitalisations and deaths”.

It said that if all restrictions were lifted by 26 April (scenario one), even under the most optimistic of assumptions, including 4m doses of vaccine a week from 22 March, there would be “another wave comparable in size to January 2021, resulting in a further 62,000 to 107,000 deaths in England”. More pessimistic vaccine efficacy led to a prediction of 102,000 to 176,000 further deaths.

Explaining the likely resurgence were restrictions lifted earlier, SPI-M says: “There are still many people in vulnerable groups who do not have protection; neither directly (either because they have not been vaccinated or because their vaccination has not prevented them from becoming infected then ill) nor indirectly from wider population immunity (because many younger age groups have not yet been vaccinated or infected).”

Hospital admissions

With warnings that the NHS is “on its knees” after three waves of the pandemic, ensuring it is not overwhelmed by a fourth wave is one of the key factors in the decision about whether to lift restrictions.

For its paper, discussed by Sage on 4 February, SPI-M asked University of Warwick and Imperial College to model four scenarios, with scenario one envisioning the earliest return to minimal measures (26 April) and scenario four the latest (2 August). SPI-M said: “All four scenarios modelled lead to a substantial resurgence in hospital admissions and deaths.” It found the models from the two universities to be in “remarkable quantitative agreement about hospital admissions”.

Daily admissions for Covid peaked at 4,134 on 12 January, but on Monday stood at 904. The most optimistic interpretation of scenario one in Warwick’s modelling suggested a resurgence in admissions later this year, peaking at between 4,000 and 6,500 admissions a day.

Hospital occupancy

In the same document, SPI-M said: “Unless vaccine efficacy is significantly better than assumed here, it is highly likely that hospital occupancy would be higher than that seen in January 2021, if all restrictions are lifted by the start of May, even under the optimistic vaccine rollout scenario modelled here of 4m doses per week from the end of March.”

The number of beds in England occupied by Covid patients peaked on 18 January, at 34,336. This has since fallen (the figure was 14,137 on Monday) but the modelling warned of a reverse if restrictions were lifted too early. Under the most optimistic interpretation of scenario one, Warwick’s modelling suggested occupancy of approximately 20,000 to 50,000 beds.

SPI-M wrote: “Relaxation of current restrictions would be safer the lower the prevalence and hospital occupancy reached before any relaxations commence. This would give a longer time window to respond if it becomes apparent that the relaxation of measures is leading to an unsustainable rise in hospital admissions. Lower prevalence of infection will also reduce the risk of the evolution of new variants.

“Hospital occupancy is still very high and will remain so for a significant length of time. SPI-M-O’s [the operational subgroup’s] medium-term projection of hospital occupancy in England on 8th March is between 5,600 and 12,1001.”

[MEGABOWL]

1 hour ago, Gregfc15 said:

Thanks for posting this as the original article had a number of issues. Seemed to essentially boil down to “we had a bit of a half assed go at things, and it didn’t work, so no point trying again”,  

Again, as with all articles against zero covid , and with the full acknowledgement of my own bias, I just can’t understand what people read in the rebuttal above that they actually disagree with. The common gripe seems to not wanting to be locked down, when it’s the constant cycle of lockdown/open up/long lockdown that is being avoided. A type of normality with the possibility of the odd short lockdown (although Singapore and Sydney have squashed outbreaks without the need for widespread restrictions) certainly seems a better option than being locked down for 8 of the last 12 months, destroying economies, jobs, mental health and lives.

I still think the discussion on Zero-Covid is worthwhile for the UK, although the successful vaccine and it’s roll-out obviously changes how you achieve that.  The UK has a chance to chart a new course out of this somewhere between the current trains of thought, as the vaccine may actually provide the chance to ‘live alongside the virus’.

In saying that, considering cases are on the drop and you are already in lockdown, I’m not sure why you wouldn’t want to do everything possible to drive them as low as possible and then keep doing that once lockdown is over. The mass of vaccinations based on the early results would seem to be doing the bulk of the heavy lifting soon enough anyway. Alongside proper quarantine, a working test, track and isolate system and financial support for those who need to isolate who have still managed to catch it, much of normality will return while continuing to mitigate the risk.

The problem with it is it involves Government Control on things like travel and the threat of local lockdowns potentially indefinitely, to achieve something that probably isn’t possible anyway. That’s hard to justify when Vaccinations are going to take away most of the threat of death and serious illness.

https://www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/coronavirus/2021/02/why-zero-covid-cure-could-be-worse-disease

https://unherd.com/2021/02/inside-the-zero-covid-campaign/

 

[philipsteak]

8 hours ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Ha weird! Mind came only a few days after I completed the training.

Hope your test is negative by the way 🙂

Thanks, it was. Results back impressively quickly too. Test at 10.30am, results by 9pm

[MEGABOWL]

8 hours ago, incident said:

Keeping this brief because otherwise I'll get boring on this subject - above all, I find that 1984 is all about information and truth (or more specifically the restriction of). Limiting, controlling, distorting, and revising the information flow (past and present) disenfranchises the populace as they no longer know what's real, and beats them into subservience so that it ultimately controls their actions and eventually thoughts. The situation today is almost the exact opposite - we've got a literal overload of information, nobody could possibly digest it all and makes it more difficult to figure out what's real. You can arguably pick out and apply aspects of it today, but overall society has gone in quite a different direction especially since the advent of the Internet.

Or to look at it somewhat flippantly - the very fact that someone is able to say "It's just like 1984" by definition means that they're wrong.

Regarding your first paragraph, I’d argue that the information overload that we’re all subjected to has a distorting effect, makes it hard to separate fact from fiction and provides potential cover for Government misbehaviour. Different methodology and technology but the result is the same.

On the second paragraph anyone saying ‘it’s just like 1984’ right now is wrong. However the challenge is to stop us getting to that stage. 

[Zoo Music Girl]

2 minutes ago, philipsteak said:

Thanks, it was. Results back impressively quickly too. Test at 10.30am, results by 9pm

Wow that is quick! I've had two now and neither made it under 24 hours (one in January took three days!). Postal though, not sure if that is meant to be slower.

[stuie]

Anyone else wondering how people on the tele have got their fresh trims? Gavin Williamson has got his done somehow now. 

And it’s not the same grade all over!

[Ryan1984]

36 minutes ago, zahidf said:

⁰

“Ministers want to fill the home of football on July 11 to show off Brexit Britain’s storming jab-driven recovery.”

They just can’t help themselves, can they?

[Fuzzy Afro]

3 minutes ago, stuie said:

Anyone else wondering how people on the tele have got their fresh trims? Gavin Williamson has got his done somehow now. 

And it’s not the same grade all over!

I’ve managed to get not terrible looking DIY trims from my other half. Although there are rumours of some illegal barbers being open. 

[The Dawg]

1 minute ago, stuie said:

Anyone else wondering how people on the tele have got their fresh trims? Gavin Williamson has got his done somehow now. 

And it’s not the same grade all over!

I bought a set of hair clippers and scissors last March and have been doing it myself. It's bit uneven here and there but I'm getting much better at it. I just slightly blur myself or tilt my head in zoom meetings.

[philipsteak]

11 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

I’ve managed to get not terrible looking DIY trims from my other half. Although there are rumours of some illegal barbers being open. 

I've decided to embrace the opportunity to go "full hobo" which is, I believe, my natural state. May (hopefully!) never get this opportunity again

Edited February 24, 2021 by philipsteak
missed 'never'. very important, that never

[philipsteak]

I know there's been the odd time when people have questioned whether someone should've got a jab or not, but the definition of 'essential worker' being used in the US, or at least Georgia, seems pretty broad. According to a mate who has just been jabbed it seems to include senior HR managers for large car rental firms

[Ozanne]

18 minutes ago, stuie said:

Anyone else wondering how people on the tele have got their fresh trims? Gavin Williamson has got his done somehow now. 

And it’s not the same grade all over!

I got some trimmers during the first lockdown and have been cutting my hair since, I can do a couple of different grades. I thought it would be really difficult but it’s not bad.

[JoeyT]

13 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

I’ve managed to get not terrible looking DIY trims from my other half. Although there are rumours of some illegal barbers being open. 

My Wife tried to give me a haircut but it was so bad I had to get her to shave it all the same length in the end.

But yeah I have been told that many barbers / hairdressers are open and that's my area alone so would have thought it was definitely happening on mass elsewhere.

My area has 50 cases per 100k (and declining) so not surprising people are using their own judgement as to the risk.

[Ozanne]

This is an interesting thread on generational challenges felt during the pandemic:

 

[steviewevie]

17 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I got some trimmers during the first lockdown and have been cutting my hair since, I can do a couple of different grades. I thought it would be really difficult but it’s not bad.

My missus cuts my hair, she's pretty good at it too...I look amazing.

[Reckoner]

32 minutes ago, MEGABOWL said:

The problem with it is it involves Government Control on things like travel and the threat of local lockdowns potentially indefinitely, to achieve something that probably isn’t possible anyway. That’s hard to justify when Vaccinations are going to take away most of the threat of death and serious illness.

Fair viewpoint, but the counterpoint is that if you are operating a policy that allows cases to circulate in the community, then the threat of a longer lockdown is also there indefinitely. We all miss travel, but at some point there needs to be an acceptance that its a high risk activity in a global pandemic. Is the want for it to return quickly (without mitigating risk through quarantine) worth the risk of torpedoing a functioning domestic economy and going back into lockdown? A number of countries have shown it is possible to have a somewhat domestic normality and a functioning economy

The Vaccines should (more likely will based on the early data) take away the threat. With such a great weapon, i'm not sure why you wouldn't use it with other tactics to finish the job and drive cases down as low as possible while you have the chance. You can't unscramble the egg.

45 minutes ago, MEGABOWL said:

https://www.newstatesman.com/science-tech/coronavirus/2021/02/why-zero-covid-cure-could-be-worse-disease

Thanks, this was the initial article that the previous one responded to. Tl;dr, "we sort of tried, it didn't work, better not try again". No mention of a barely functioning track and trace system, lack of support for those needing to isolate, and a year of allowing people from High risk zones to continue to import cases whilst asking to population to give up everything in lockdown being the reason. 

 

48 minutes ago, MEGABOWL said:

https://unherd.com/2021/02/inside-the-zero-covid-campaign/

 He asks "Zero COVID: At what Cost?" while the UK is in another lock-down, an economy in tatters, lives and Mental Health destroyed, 100k dead. At what cost indeed.  

 

[steviewevie]

11 minutes ago, Gregfc15 said:

Fair viewpoint, but the counterpoint is that if you are operating a policy that allows cases to circulate in the community, then the threat of a longer lockdown is also there indefinitely. We all miss travel, but at some point there needs to be an acceptance that its a high risk activity in a global pandemic. Is the want for it to return quickly (without mitigating risk through quarantine) worth the risk of torpedoing a functioning domestic economy and going back into lockdown? A number of countries have shown it is possible to have a somewhat domestic normality and a functioning economy

The Vaccines should (more likely will based on the early data) take away the threat. With such a great weapon, i'm not sure why you wouldn't use it with other tactics to finish the job and drive cases down as low as possible while you have the chance. You can't unscramble the egg.

Thanks, this was the initial article that the previous one responded to. Tl;dr, "we sort of tried, it didn't work, better not try again". No mention of a barely functioning track and trace system, lack of support for those needing to isolate, and a year of allowing people from High risk zones to continue to import cases whilst asking to population to give up everything in lockdown being the reason. 

 

 He asks "Zero COVID: At what Cost?" while the UK is in another lock-down, an economy in tatters, lives and Mental Health destroyed, 100k dead. At what cost indeed.  

 

if vaccines work well in stopping transmission and we get enough people vaccinated then we can get covid levels low and suppress any new vaccine evasive variants until have a vaccine that works..?

[zahidf]

31 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

This is an interesting thread on generational challenges felt during the pandemic:

 

Under 35 year olds haven't stopped having sex.