When will this shit end?

[tigger123]

 

[Fuzzy Afro]

Just now, tigger123 said:

 

This is a lot more optimistic than what the telegraph are briefing 

[zahidf]

3 minutes ago, tigger123 said:

 

If we are all vaccinated by July I dont see the point of social distancing.  Seems over caution to me , to the detriment of everyone's mental health.

 

 I would in 3-week intervals say:
8 March - Reopen schools
29 March - Reopen nonessential shops and beer gardens
19 April - Reopen indoor pubs (Rule of 6)
24 May* - Remove Rule of 6

* Assuming 30 April for finishing vaccinations, 17 May if vaccinations are finished a week early.

Edited February 16, 2021 by zahidf

[mattiloy]

2 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

This is a lot more optimistic than what the telegraph are briefing 

They not buying into the hype about Judy Murray’s turkey neck then?

[Chapple12345]

2 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

This is a lot more optimistic than what the telegraph are briefing 

This is why people are so disillusioned, there are so many different stories from different sources so you have no idea what to listen to 

[tigger123]

1 minute ago, Chapple12345 said:

This is why people are so disillusioned, there are so many different stories from different sources so you have no idea what to listen to 

 

[Mr.Tease]

9 hours ago, zahidf said:

I think we need a lot more evidence for these variants to evade vaccines before we keep super damaging lockdowns in place 

Well, it's already looking like Oxford won't work vs the one first identified in s. Africa. If you wait too long, it will be too late.

 

edit: re-read this this morning, and realise it's not clear- I was referring to it stopping the spread of the s. African variant (due to it looking not effective at stopping mild to moderate infections), which is why you need to be cautious if you want to stop that variant becoming widespread, especially as we don't know yet whether it prevents serious illness (hopefully it will as a lot of countries will be depending on it)

Edited February 17, 2021 by Mr.Tease

[steviewevie]

8 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

This is a lot more optimistic than what the telegraph are briefing 

not really...telegraph predicting below 1000/day by early April...

[zahidf]

3 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

Well, it's already looking like Oxford won't work vs the one first identified in s. Africa. If you wait too long, it will be too late.

No it isn't looking like that's the case. Not enough evidence either way.

Edited February 16, 2021 by zahidf

[Fuzzy Afro]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

not really...telegraph predicting below 1000/day by early April...

On current trends, that is. The R rate will go through the roof once the plague factories are reopened on the 8th. 

[charlierc]

26 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Surely deaths would be VERY low at that stage? Why should we have restrictions with 1100 cases? What happened to stopping hospitals being overwhelmed?

If I recall, we got to around 1,000 a day or just under it when we had the relaxing of restrictions back in July, although I honestly thought back then that it was too high. Even though my local area at the time was producing single digit new cases per day.

We're still kinda meandering our way through tbh.

[Fuzzy Afro]

3 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

Well, it's already looking like Oxford won't work vs the one first identified in s. Africa. If you wait too long, it will be too late.

We both know that isn’t the case 

[Ozanne]

12 minutes ago, tigger123 said:

 

That actually seems fairly sensible to be honest. Slow enough to hopefully prevent any major increases in the virus and also ensure if any setbacks then we can delay measures.

[fraybentos1]

9 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

Well, it's already looking like Oxford won't work vs the one first identified in s. Africa. If you wait too long, it will be too late.

No it isn't, so please stop with this it is unhelpful.

[steviewevie]

6 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

On current trends, that is. The R rate will go through the roof once the plague factories are reopened on the 8th. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56072460

[Jcatley]

The newspaper headlines change every day at the moment regarding the proposed roadmap. Wouldn’t bother taking any ‘leak’ seriously until Peston inadvertently tweets it the day before

[Leyrulion]

35 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Surely deaths would be VERY low at that stage? Why should we have restrictions with 1100 cases? What happened to stopping hospitals being overwhelmed?

This is sounds scarier/harder then it actually is. 

From 10,000 cases today with an R of 0.75 it'd take 8 cycles of the virus to get cases to 1,000 a day. 

Or about 40 days, which takes us to about 28th March. Which is roughly in line with the other leaked timetables.

[Mr.Tease]

12 minutes ago, zahidf said:

No it isn't looking like that's the case. Not enough evidence either way.

Enough doubt to be cautious, the crucial data will be on its impact on serious illness - fingers crossed it protects against that, but I get the cautious approach until that's been clarified 

[Mr.Tease]

4 minutes ago, Jcatley said:

The newspaper headlines change every day at the moment regarding the proposed roadmap. Wouldn’t bother taking any ‘leak’ seriously until Peston inadvertently tweets it the day before

They're still debating amongst themselves what the roadmap will be plus it will be flexible depending on how circumstances change, so it's not worth freaking out about at this point

[Ozanne]

4 minutes ago, Jcatley said:

The newspaper headlines change every day at the moment regarding the proposed roadmap. Wouldn’t bother taking any ‘leak’ seriously until Peston inadvertently tweets it the day before

This is also true! We’ve seen a few different versions now haven’t we? These different ideas could be versions of the ideas they’ve had and potentially the final roadmap be a mix of all of them. 

[zahidf]

3 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

Enough doubt to be cautious, the crucial data will be on its impact on serious illness - fingers crossed it protects against that, but I get the cautious approach until that's been clarified 

And rhe evidence is that oxford prevent serious illness even in the SA variant. It's not not the case that 'it doesn't work' like you said.

[gooner1990]

Any idea about household mixing? Or is that not on the roadmap?

[Ozanne]

Just now, gooner1990 said:

Any idea about household mixing? Or is that not on the roadmap?

It’ll be on the roadmap I would imagine but hasn’t been in any leaks I’ve seen. I think indoor mixing might be a little way off though. 

Edited February 16, 2021 by Ozanne

[Fuzzy Afro]

3 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-56072460

This virus isn’t dangerous to kids. It doesn’t even give them a mild cold in most cases. The corollary to this is that they are silent superspreader. They’re taking the virus out into the community, especially the new variant. The R rate will go above 1 when plague factories open

[zahidf]

Here's leak number 3+