When will this shit end?

[gazzared]

5 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

if pubs are open by easter it will be outdoor only I think. Anyway, we'll just have to see what is the actual roadmap...this is all just coming from papers at moment.

yeah, I think once all the over 50's have received their vaccine then everywhere should be open but with the usual restrictions in place - theirs still gonna be risks but we cant stay locked down forever, last year more under 60's died on the roads than from covid so theirs risks in everthing we do not just from the virus.

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

4 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Cases are still really high. Another few weeks of card reduction and vaccination and we should be in a much better place. If we put kids back next week and found that schools were enough to get positive case growth, the whole plan would be set back more than a few weeks. And there would be more death.

The timelines feel about right to me - as long as the government really does put the brakes on if cases start going up again.

I understand that, it just surprises me a little the government didn't align to term time, given that it's actually only one week extra of closure.  Maybe they are learning... 

Edited February 13, 2021 by RobertProsineckisLighter

[Ozanne]

1 minute ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Cases are still really high. Another few weeks of card reduction and vaccination and we should be in a much better place. If we put kids back next week and found that schools were enough to get positive case growth, the whole plan would be set back more than a few weeks. And there would be more death.

The timelines feel about right to me - as long as the government really does put the brakes on if cases start going up again.

I agree with the 8th March for schools, it’s still too soon for that. Cases are still over 10k a day after all. 

[stuartbert two hats]

5 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I admire people’s ability to put their trust in a group that consistently failed us.

The government never learns their lessons. The only lesson they learn is that no matter how badly they screw up they never seem to suffer any consequences. 

To be fair, ever since they actually started this current lockdown, they've not fucked it up at all. Several weeks of not fucking it up is something of a record!

[tigger123]

2 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I admire people’s ability to put their trust in a group that consistently failed us.

The government never learns their lessons. The only lesson they learn is that no matter how badly they screw up they never seem to suffer any consequences. 

In what way is the plan too fast? Is it the opening of hospitality before Easter that’s concerning you in particular? 

Schools March 8th

3 1/2 weeks later (scientists have been calling for 3 week gaps between each restriction loosening) non essential retail and outdoor dining/drinking

3 1/2 weeks later indoor hospitality

Also by beginning of May the majority of adults will be vaccinated plus we will still have social distancing. I don’t see what the issue is here. They’re not just opening it all up at once. Yes cases will rise when we open hospitality but that will happen whenever we do it. Tim from the Zoe app reckons 1 in 500 will have covid when the schools are opened, that seems pretty good to me considering where we were

 

[Ozanne]

Just now, stuartbert two hats said:

To be fair, ever since they actually started this current lockdown, they've not fucked it up at all. Several weeks of not fucking it up is something of a record!

Hotel quarantine system is working well 😝 but I get your point. 

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

I understand that, it just surprises me a little the government didn't align to term time, given that it's actually only one week extra of closure.  Maybe they are learning... 

I think originally they were looking at schools going back over half term...but cases/hospitalisations got so high that had to be delayed a few weeks.

[CaledonianGonzo]

2 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

To be fair, ever since they actually started this current lockdown, they've not fucked it up at all. Several weeks of not fucking it up is something of a record!

The borders are still open my dude.

 

[Fuzzy Afro]

6 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I admire people’s ability to put their trust in a group that consistently failed us.

The government never learns their lessons. The only lesson they learn is that no matter how badly they screw up they never seem to suffer any consequences. 

I’d hazard a guess that when people are asked what government they’ll vote for, the Tories handling of the coronavirus isn’t their #1 priority. That’s why they aren’t suffering consequences. 

4 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Cases are still really high. Another few weeks of card reduction and vaccination and we should be in a much better place. If we put kids back next week and found that schools were enough to get positive case growth, the whole plan would be set back more than a few weeks. And there would be more death.

The timelines feel about right to me - as long as the government really does put the brakes on if cases start going up again.

Spot on. The roadmap dates really need to be viewed as “Not Before” dates rather than official reopening dates. But I think it’s a good thing that the government want to give us a rough sketch of how the coming months COULD look.

 

I also happen to believe that schools going back WILL increase the R number above 1. The question is how the government plan to mitigate this. 

2 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I agree with the 8th March for schools, it’s still too soon for that. Cases are still over 10k a day after all. 

Yeah but they won’t be by the 8th March, will they? That’s still 23 days away. Cases will have halved and then reduced some more by then (assuming no new variant starts taking over)

[stuartbert two hats]

2 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Hotel quarantine system is working well 😝 but I get your point. 

Oh yeah, there is that! 😄

[Ozanne]

1 minute ago, tigger123 said:

In what way is the plan too fast? Is it the opening of hospitality before Easter that’s concerning you in particular? 

Schools March 8th

3 1/2 weeks later (scientists have been calling for 3 week gaps between each restriction loosening) non essential retail and outdoor dining/drinking

3 1/2 weeks later indoor hospitality

Also by beginning of May the majority of adults will be vaccinated plus we will still have social distancing. I don’t see what the issue is here. They’re not just opening it all up at once. Yes cases will rise when we open hospitality but that will happen whenever we do it. Tim from the Zoe app reckons 1 in 500 will have covid when the schools are opened, that seems pretty good to me considering where we were

 

I said it last night but in my mind it’s too quick. Schools reopening then within a month shops and pubs are back open. It seems like a plan just to have things back open for the next public holiday.

I think they should go at a very slow pace, schools then wait if data allows then have shops then wait, then have hair dressers and salons, then have pubs etc.

Why are we going that quickly as you’ve described? I can only assume it’s to put off pressure from the backbenchers and to start finishing the support payments. I have no faith they are doing this the right way because they haven’t ended any of our lockdowns correctly and the warning signs are here again for me.  

[stuartbert two hats]

6 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

I also happen to believe that schools going back WILL increase the R number above 1. The question is how the government plan to mitigate this. 

Maybe not. Vaccinations and the weather appear to reduce spread, and since we've never changed the schools without doing something else at the same time before, we just don't know how much they contribute.

We'll see, fingers crossed, we might just squeak under 1.

[Fuzzy Afro]

2 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Maybe not. Vaccinations and the weather appear to reduce spread, and since we've never changed the schools without doing something else at the same time before, we just don't know how much they contribute.

We'll see, fingers crossed, we might just squeak under 1.

I hope so. Holding that R=1 equilibrium will be the important way to reopen society.

 

I guess the reason we had such a massive second wave is because the R was allowed to simmer above 1 for several months. If they’d gone ahead and closed some things in August after it became clear that the reopening had gone too far we might have been able to survive without a full second lockdown. 

[gooner1990]

9 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Why are we going that quickly as you’ve described? 

Because everyone’s fucking had enough. 

[zahidf]

28 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I admire people’s ability to put their trust in a group that consistently failed us.

The government never learns their lessons. The only lesson they learn is that no matter how badly they screw up they never seem to suffer any consequences. 

The vaccine programme seems to be going well. And they were right about the 12 week gap with Oxford.

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

2 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

I hope so. Holding that R=1 equilibrium will be the important way to reopen society.

 

I guess the reason we had such a massive second wave is because the R was allowed to simmer above 1 for several months. If they’d gone ahead and closed some things in August after it became clear that the reopening had gone too far we might have been able to survive without a full second lockdown. 

Yep - you also have to think that in a few months time the percentage of those needing hospital treatment should decrease only people catching it that aren't protected from serious illness are statistically much less likely to end up in hospital or dead anyway. 

 

[tigger123]

2 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I said it last night but in my mind it’s too quick. Schools reopening then within a month shops and pubs are back open. It seems like a plan just to have things back open for the next public holiday.

I think they should go at a very slow pace, schools then wait if data allows then have shops then wait, then have hair dressers and salons, then have pubs etc.

Why are we going that quickly as you’ve described? I can only assume it’s to put off pressure from the backbenchers and to start finishing the support payments. I have no faith they are doing this the right way because they haven’t ended any of our lockdowns correctly and the warning signs are here again for me.  

Isn’t opening schools going to push R back above 1 though? Therefore by this then how do we open non essential retail and hospitality again as the case data won’t allow them to open?
 

It’s not that quick, scientists have called for 3 week gaps between each loosened restriction and that’s what we’re getting. The government probably know that people won’t stick to the rules as strongly as they did once they have been vaccinated. I know that polling data shows that people want social distancing to continue etc but what do they actually mean by that? Standing further away from others in the supermarket, yes. Ensuring you’re always 2 metres away from family in your home? Not so sure. As we know, spread happens mostly in homes so this is clearly key.

Anecdotally, my mums friend works for a retirement social club where they do group classes etc. The phone keeps ringing off the hook from elderly members asking when classes are going to start again. This didn’t happen last lockdown. The difference? They’ve all been vaccinated and now want to get on with their lives. Keeping pubs shut, shops shut when the majority of adults and all vulnerable are vaccinated is just not realistic. People have had enough. If the shops/pubs aren’t open, they’ll meet up at home. I for one would rather they were meeting up sitting outside a covid secure pub funding the frankly ruined economy than sitting indoors at each other’s homes in close contact to each other. We have to realise it’s not as simple as making rules and people sticking to them perfectly. Compliance will fall as vaccination numbers increase. 

[steviewevie]

5 minutes ago, gooner1990 said:

Because everyone’s fucking had enough. 

but imagine having to do it again because we went too quickly?

Edited February 13, 2021 by steviewevie

[jparx]

Certainly seems like the govt is on a comms blitz today with those newspaper headlines.

[gooner1990]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

but imagine having to do it again because we went too quickly?

We won’t. 

[zahidf]

2 minutes ago, tigger123 said:

Isn’t opening schools going to push R back above 1 though? Therefore by this then how do we open non essential retail and hospitality again as the case data won’t allow them to open?
 

It’s not that quick, scientists have called for 3 week gaps between each loosened restriction and that’s what we’re getting. The government probably know that people won’t stick to the rules as strongly as they did once they have been vaccinated. I know that polling data shows that people want social distancing to continue etc but what do they actually mean by that? Standing further away from others in the supermarket, yes. Ensuring you’re always 2 metres away from family in your home? Not so sure. As we know, spread happens mostly in homes so this is clearly key.

Anecdotally, my mums friend works for a retirement social club where they do group classes etc. The phone keeps ringing off the hook from elderly members asking when classes are going to start again. This didn’t happen last lockdown. The difference? They’ve all been vaccinated and now want to get on with their lives. Keeping pubs shut, shops shut when the majority of adults and all vulnerable are vaccinated is just not realistic. People have had enough. If the shops/pubs aren’t open, they’ll meet up at home. I for one would rather they were meeting up sitting outside a covid secure pub funding the frankly ruined economy than sitting indoors at each other’s homes in close contact to each other. We have to realise it’s not as simple as making rules and people sticking to them perfectly. Compliance will fall as vaccination numbers increase. 

Yeah.... the oldies have a limited time left on earth. Theyve got the vaccine, they want their lives back.

[Fuzzy Afro]

@Ozanne would have us in an Australia/Wuhan style lockdown for months if not years on end if he had his way. It’s good that the more sensible heads on here understand that a roadmap, whilst maintaining flexibility to slow it down, is a good thing. 

[Ozanne]

9 minutes ago, tigger123 said:

Isn’t opening schools going to push R back above 1 though? Therefore by this then how do we open non essential retail and hospitality again as the case data won’t allow them to open?
 

It’s not that quick, scientists have called for 3 week gaps between each loosened restriction and that’s what we’re getting. The government probably know that people won’t stick to the rules as strongly as they did once they have been vaccinated. I know that polling data shows that people want social distancing to continue etc but what do they actually mean by that? Standing further away from others in the supermarket, yes. Ensuring you’re always 2 metres away from family in your home? Not so sure. As we know, spread happens mostly in homes so this is clearly key.

Anecdotally, my mums friend works for a retirement social club where they do group classes etc. The phone keeps ringing off the hook from elderly members asking when classes are going to start again. This didn’t happen last lockdown. The difference? They’ve all been vaccinated and now want to get on with their lives. Keeping pubs shut, shops shut when the majority of adults and all vulnerable are vaccinated is just not realistic. People have had enough. If the shops/pubs aren’t open, they’ll meet up at home. I for one would rather they were meeting up sitting outside a covid secure pub funding the frankly ruined economy than sitting indoors at each other’s homes in close contact to each other. We have to realise it’s not as simple as making rules and people sticking to them perfectly. Compliance will fall as vaccination numbers increase. 

I feel it is to quick for those reasons I’ve outlined. I don’t have any faith that once this roadmap has been started if the data worsens that the government will put a stop to it. They barely did last year and look at what happened.

Where is the data that shows compliance will fall? I haven’t seen any just anecdotal stories of people wanting to do things again. We all do but so far compliance has been high and data points to people still sticking to rules.

I for one would rather we go very slowly so when we do finally come out of lockdown we don’t end up back in one rather than come out of one quicker because another bank holiday is coming up. 

[BobWillis]

9 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

@Ozanne would have us in an Australia/Wuhan style lockdown for months if not years on end if he had his way. It’s good that the more sensible heads on here understand that a roadmap, whilst maintaining flexibility to slow it down, is a good thing. 

He wants what Labour wants. If Starmer came out tomorrow and said we need to get the economy going by Easter then he would be banging that drum instead. 

[xxialac]

This government is like being in an abusive relationship.

Yes, he's beaten me every night since we started going out but it's just he has a bit of a temper and he's a real sweetheart really...

The key decision-makers i.e. the Cabinet have proven themselves to be entirely self-serving chancers, completely out of their depth, slow to act and far more incompetent than any other UK government in living memory. Johnson has all these characteristics in spades and he is at the very top.

The results in terms of people's livelihoods relative to other countries, the state of the economy and UK's global standing won't improve until we have a different lot at the top.

This lot will continue to lie, they will continue to focus on pleasing their mates at the expense of the people, they will continue to make damaging decisions including through this next phase.