When will this shit end?

[Chef]

51 minutes ago, fatyeti24 said:

Preach!

I find myself fantasising about being in crowds - not even anything particularly good like a gig or a festival, but I'd take the fucking Trafford Centre on the Saturday before Xmas.  Or checking into a hotel, anywhere, so long as it's nice, and letting someone else cater for me for a night!

Then I go outside and everything's closed and deserted.  GRRRR SO BORED.

Hear you on this. I went to Wickes to buy a seal for my shower screen a couple of weeks ago and it felt like a treat. 

[DeanoL]

I think part of the boredom is that it feels we're so close to getting out of it. At the start it was easy to go "I'll learn something new" or "I'll start a new hobby" but now it's sort of "well what's the point, I won't have time for it once the world starts again in July"

[fraybentos1]

10 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

🤷‍♂️

 

''Our model suggests substantial reductions in hospital and ICU admissions will not occur until late March and into April 2021.''

Still a while to go then...

[fraybentos1]

6 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

Even Professor Doom has changed his tune!

 

''Up to *a third* of Brits, “certainly 30%”, have now had Covid''

That is pretty promising for immunity going forward. So we are now at 25% vaccinated and 30 odd percent had it. Obviously going to be a crossover between these two groups though.

[Quark]

4 minutes ago, Chef said:

Hear you on this. I went to Wickes to buy a seal for my shower screen a couple of weeks ago and it felt like a treat. 

Recent high point was driving 25 mins to one of our offices to pick up a decent chair for homeworking.  Unbelievable scenes.

[BobWillis]

9 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

Even Professor Doom has changed his tune!

 

“Next year” fuck off, they said that last year. 

[st dan]

Melbourne in another 5 day snap lockdown I see. I’m struggling to see how their approach will work long term when things open back up, as very low percentages of their population will have been infected with Covid.
They’ll have to hope the vaccine take up is incredibly high or they’ll be in on/off lockdowns for years. 

Edited February 12, 2021 by st dan

[stuartbert two hats]

1 hour ago, fatyeti24 said:

Preach!

I find myself fantasising about being in crowds - not even anything particularly good like a gig or a festival, but I'd take the fucking Trafford Centre on the Saturday before Xmas.  Or checking into a hotel, anywhere, so long as it's nice, and letting someone else cater for me for a night!

Then I go outside and everything's closed and deserted.  GRRRR SO BORED.

Yeah, I miss walking through a crowd, having some dickhead who's not looking where they're going bump into me and it not being a potential encounter with a deadly virus.

[zahidf]

21 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

To give some balance, I 100% agree with this statement. It's just I think the point to start opening up properly comes sometime in July, a couple of weeks after everyone has had the chance to get the first jab. And I feel like pushing to do it early (or just people collectively deciding to ignore the rules) will actually delay this. 

Because if you push hospital utilisation down to about 50%, by keeping measures in place for longer, you give yourself headroom to deal with stuff - sure, there's a new variant that the vaccine is 20% less effective against, which means hospital numbers are going to creep up, but it's okay, as we have spare capacity and can start jabbing the vulnerable with a new vaccine in a couple of months.

But if you just start relaxing measures as soon as possible, so your approach is basically "let's keep hospital capacity utilisation at 90-95%" then that same new variant crops up? Well now we need another lockdown, because if hospital numbers start creeping up, we are only a few weeks away from hitting capacity, so we need a lockdown to allow for the new vaccine to be developed.

Then you have the fact that people are often hospitalised for 2-3 months with COVID, so there's a big lag on that too. 

We have to get hospital numbers down, but just getting them down to 90% isn't really ideal.

 

I think that's true, but I think you'll be surprised by what choices those unvaccinated people are making. I'll be choosing to be more cautious - because of the risk presented to me by many other people choosing to be less cautious, which increases my risk. It's taking your shoes off at the airport, to an extent, I know that. It doesn't actually make flying safer, it makes people feel safer about flying, so we all do it.  

 

Yeah I know you don't mean that. But loads of people who have the "after I'm vaccinated I won't follow the rules anymore" mean exactly that. 

And the logic on the second one is that if the government just open everything up they also then end all support in terms of furlough etc. Whereas if they're forcing pubs to still operate in a socially distanced fashion then there should still be some support in place. In theory. And I'll feel comfortable going to a socially distanced pub if people actually distance in it. If people are taking the piss, I won't.

Oh, If they were saying we can open in July that'd be fine. They are saying social distancing all year now though, which ISNT what we were told before. And if deaths are massively down, people won't go for it.

[Fuzzy Afro]

3 minutes ago, st dan said:

Melbourne in another 5 day snap lockdown I see. I’m struggling to see how their approach will work long term when things open back up, as very low percentages of their population will have been infected with Covid.
They’ll have to hope the vaccine take up is incredibly high or they’ll be in on/off lockdowns for years. 

Once their population has been offered a vaccine they won’t lockdown for every case. 

[zahidf]

Yup. I think some scientists need to keep in their box

 

[efcfanwirral]

 

1 hour ago, Chef said:

Is anybody else just really bored of all this now? I was watching TV last night (Schitts Creek) and I realised I was just so bored of sitting on the sofa, watching telly. I've done every job I can in the house, listened to a lot of music, cooked a lot of new recipes and don't even start on walks. 

I just want a pint with some mates in a sunny beer garden and to go to a gig. Aside from not seeing friends and family for over a year in some cases I am very lucky that I don't have anything major to worry about, secure work, good size house and live in village with lots of green space around, family healthy etc. but I almost feel numb with boredom.

Anyone else feel like this? Not down or low, just bored.  

Numb is the word. I've fully accepted I won't get to a gig or travel this year, so really for me 2021 is over already.

I'm bored of the area I've moved to which I did like when I moved here because of the green spaces but I'd happily never see those walking routes again. 

I know the solution is "get a hobby", "do some exercise". Those are not a substitute.. 

57 minutes ago, Quark said:

Seconded bud.  The big stuff is all amazing, but I'd just like something simple like being able to sit in the hot chocolate cafe in town (yes it exists, yes it's absolutely amazing) eat some cake and watch the world go by.

Our expectations are so low now- i think that's what's so bad about it.  

Edited February 12, 2021 by efcfanwirral

[DeanoL]

4 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Oh, If they were saying we can open in July that'd be fine. They are saying social distancing all year now though, which ISNT what we were told before. And if deaths are massively down, people won't go for it.

Yeah with stuff like this I wonder what assumptions they're making about what we're doing. I mean, I can see a world where schools open in March, then pubs and shops in April, and because of that numbers creep back up and so we do end up needing some sort of distancing in place for longer.

Whereas if we open up a little later, and more cautiously, we won't.

It feels like it could be a choice between "lockdown until July, then everything is properly open" versus "Tier 2 in May, Tier 1 in July until the end of the year".

What I feel confident saying it won't be is "lockdown until July then tier 1 until the end of the year"

[efcfanwirral]

4 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Once their population has been offered a vaccine they won’t lockdown for every case. 

And to be fair will have saved a LOT of lives.

They're actually the biggest experiment in how well the vaccine works, very few cases but once everyone is vaccinated the deaths and hospitalisation percentages will be interesting

[zahidf]

9 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

Yeah with stuff like this I wonder what assumptions they're making about what we're doing. I mean, I can see a world where schools open in March, then pubs and shops in April, and because of that numbers creep back up and so we do end up needing some sort of distancing in place for longer.

Whereas if we open up a little later, and more cautiously, we won't.

It feels like it could be a choice between "lockdown until July, then everything is properly open" versus "Tier 2 in May, Tier 1 in July until the end of the year".

What I feel confident saying it won't be is "lockdown until July then tier 1 until the end of the year"

I dont think they'd even consider closing schools till July.

It just seems to undermine the vaccine programme to say it won't stop the restrictions. I've seen people say "why should I have a vaccine im unsure about if I still have to stay away from family and friends'?

[zahidf]

Pfizer and Moderna are testing vaccines on children aged 12 and older and hope to have results by the summer, the New York Times reports.

The companies could then test the vaccines in younger children, depending on findings in the older cohort.

Johnson & Johnson, Novavax and AstraZeneca are in the process of putting similar plans into operation but are not quite at such an advanced stage.

[squirrelarmy]

12 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

And to be fair will have saved a LOT of lives.

They're actually the biggest experiment in how well the vaccine works, very few cases but once everyone is vaccinated the deaths and hospitalisation percentages will be interesting

It will be interesting for them. Will finally get to see what advantage there is being on an island isolated from most of the world. 

[st dan]

22 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Once their population has been offered a vaccine they won’t lockdown for every case. 

I thought that would be the case, but they would need a very high take up  to stop small clusters becoming widespread very quickly. 
 
I don’t know how a vaccination rollout would work in a country which has barely been affected by Covid (in terms of cases and deaths). The younger population who are more unlikely to get the vaccine also won’t have built up much immunity via previous infections, like we probably have in the UK. And they’re almost back to normal life too, so are some wiling to ‘risk’ it if there is any doubt at all in their minds?

We’re desperate over here as we’ve seen first hand the devastation this can cause, and vaccines give us the only road to recovery. Will be interested to see how it plays out in Aus and NZ amongst others. 

[zahidf]

Just now, st dan said:

I thought that would be the case, but they would need a very high take up  to stop small clusters becoming widespread very quickly. 
 
I don’t know how a vaccination rollout would work in a country which has barely been affected by Covid (in terms of cases and deaths). The younger population who are more unlikely to get the vaccine also won’t have built up much immunity via previous infections, like we probably have in the UK. And they’re almost back to normal life too, so are some wiling to ‘risk’ it if there is any doubt at all in their minds?

We’re desperate over here as we’ve seen first hand the devastation this can cause, and vaccines give us the only road to recovery. Will be interested to see how it plays out in Aus and NZ amongst others. 

NZ actually are starting vaccinations next week with Pfizer. They are doing the border guards/employees first.

[st dan]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

NZ actually are starting vaccinations next week with Pfizer. They are doing the border guards/employees first.

Great to hear - hope it goes well for them and they have a very high take up for people of all ages willing to take the vaccine.
If it does, then the government have done an amazing job of protecting lives, jobs and the economy, all whilst having ‘normality’ back for the majority of the year too. 

[Ozanne]

I think that the majority of people will still support and adhere to social distancing if it’s in place through till Autumn. The public generally speaking have been supportive of lockdowns and any measures that need to be taken so I think that will continue. 

[zahidf]

Just now, Ozanne said:

I think that the majority of people will still support and adhere to social distancing if it’s in place through till Autumn. The public generally speaking have been supportive of lockdowns and any measures that need to be taken so I think that will continue. 

Even the vaccinated? I doubt it. 

[zahidf]

Anyway, I actually reckon its pointless to open schools for 3 weeks before the easter holidays close them anyway. 

Keep them closed till April 19th, open up fully then

[Ozanne]

6 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Even the vaccinated? I doubt it. 

Yeah I think the public will support social distancing through till the Autumn.

[st dan]

2 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Anyway, I actually reckon its pointless to open schools for 3 weeks before the easter holidays close them anyway. 

Keep them closed till April 19th, open up fully then

Kind of on board with that, but there would need to be some justification as to the reasons why. Just saying ‘it makes most sense’ won’t be enough when it impacts so many parents and kids.
Another 3 weeks (will turn to 5 with easter holidays) is a very long time to be off school, and if the numbers are suggesting it is safe to open up again before that, then they should get back in as soon as possible. It’s likely daily cases could be around 5k - 7k by 8th March, and deaths/hospitalisations should finally be way down then too, so there is a strong case that these numbers are low enough for schools to reopen.