When will this shit end?

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, Matt42 said:

My mum had the AZ vaccine today 

excellent news .... there is still a bit of a regional variation  of how far along each area is along with it .... some in the over 60s are getting them in some areas ... but I guess this will always be the case based on the makeup of the populations in different areas .... and how accessible vaccine centres are ....

[Paul ™]

47 minutes ago, MrBarry465 said:

100%

I fully support an almost closure of airports in order to get us back to normal. People should not be encouraged to travel this year.

And what do you propose for all the airlines, airports and staff along with all the supply chains that support that whole industry?

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, Paul ™ said:

And what do you propose for all the airlines, airports and staff along with all the supply chains that support that whole industry?

other sectors have had to shut up shop. There's nothing special about the airline industry that says the same couldn't happen there.

(I don't support a full shutdown, but mostly because the super-privileged would avoid it with private jets).

[Toilet Duck]

18 minutes ago, zero000 said:

Is zero covid really a strategy the U.K. can pursue now? It seems very much like shutting the stable door after the horse has bolted.
 

It also makes me wonder about the practicalities of these restrictions in the longer term. What criteria do we use to judge when to drop the quarantine restrictions? What if the virus is not eliminated in the rest of the world and becomes yet another seasonal virus like the flu?

 

I also wonder how long would it take us to get to the levels of no community transmission like Australia or NZ, and what the cost will be to reach that.  We’re heading into a big conversation about the levels of risk we’re willing to accept as a country in the next few months.

 

 

Unfortunately this is what happens when mathematicians venture into biology. A “fully vax-resistant variant” doesn’t really mean anything (a change so big that our immune response doesn’t recognise it at all would be pretty much be a new strain entirely). At the moment, we are in that equilibrium finding phase with the virus (as we push back with naturally and vaccine-acquired immunity), but (partial) evasion of neutralising antibodies is all that is required by the virus to be successful. Thankfully, that doesn’t mean that the rest of our immune system ignores the virus growing in our cells. All the empirical evidence we have to date supports this (reduction in efficacy in terms of preventing infection with the new variants (specifically the E484K containing variants), not much impact on efficacy at preventing severe disease, hospitalisation and death). What evolutionary gain does the virus make if it not only evades the immune response to infection (allowing it to grow and be passed on) but also adds in evasion of all parts of our immune systems and renders us immobile and eventually dead? The former is much better for the virus, so that’s the greater evolutionary pressure. Christina has made many valuable contributions to the debate over the last while, but I think this is wide of the mark and you can’t simply ignore biology. Changes are random, it’s entirely possible that a new strain emerges from human to human spread, but normally it doesn’t work like that (other circulating CoVs accumulate changes but haven’t evolved into super infectious, super deadly strains...why would this one in particular be different?). I just don’t think elimination is a viable option with this virus, its biology doesn’t really support it, but mitigating serious morbidity and mortality as a result of it is an achievable goal (the one we are aiming for). 

[Paul ™]

Just now, eFestivals said:

other sectors have had to shut up shop. There's nothing special about the airline industry that says the same couldn't happen there.

(I don't support a full shutdown, but mostly because the super-privileged would avoid it with private jets).

But it doesnt just affect UK businesses, if there was a full UK closure then that knocks on to other countries and their businesses.

Plus the UK Government will not fund those businesses here for the full year and potentially longer as this virus and it's variants are not going away anytime soon in full
They want to get things open not restrict things further so a full shut-down will never happen here, same as a full hotel quarantine either.

 

Edited February 7, 2021 by Paul ™

[HalfAnIdiot]

7 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Unfortunately this is what happens when mathematicians venture into biology. A “fully vax-resistant variant” doesn’t really mean anything (a change so big that our immune response doesn’t recognise it at all would be pretty much be a new strain entirely). At the moment, we are in that equilibrium finding phase with the virus (as we push back with naturally and vaccine-acquired immunity), but (partial) evasion of neutralising antibodies is all that is required by the virus to be successful. Thankfully, that doesn’t mean that the rest of our immune system ignores the virus growing in our cells. All the empirical evidence we have to date supports this (reduction in efficacy in terms of preventing infection with the new variants (specifically the E484K containing variants), not much impact on efficacy at preventing severe disease, hospitalisation and death). What evolutionary gain does the virus make if it not only evades the immune response to infection (allowing it to grow and be passed on) but also adds in evasion of all parts of our immune systems and renders us immobile and eventually dead? The former is much better for the virus, so that’s the greater evolutionary pressure. Christina has made many valuable contributions to the debate over the last while, but I think this is wide of the mark and you can’t simply ignore biology. Changes are random, it’s entirely possible that a new strain emerges from human to human spread, but normally it doesn’t work like that (other circulating CoVs accumulate changes but haven’t evolved into super infectious, super deadly strains...why would this one in particular be different?). I just don’t think elimination is a viable option with this virus, its biology doesn’t really support it, but mitigating serious morbidity and mortality as a result of it is an achievable goal (the one we are aiming for). 

Can we bring back upvotes limited to Toilet Duck only please 🙂. 

These post are bloody invaluable. Thank you @Toilet Duck.

[Zoo Music Girl]

29 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

My mum had the AZ vaccine today 

My dad did too! 

[Toilet Duck]

2 minutes ago, HalfAnIdiot said:

Can we bring back upvotes limited to Toilet Duck only please 🙂. 

These post are bloody invaluable. Thank you @Toilet Duck.

No worries! I should add that temporarily keeping things tight as you roll out vaccinations isn’t a bad thing, indeed it’s prudent, but it’s not a long term solution and not where I see us ending up at all. 

[Hannibal Schmitt]

18 minutes ago, Paul ™ said:

And what do you propose for all the airlines, airports and staff along with all the supply chains that support that whole industry?

Not only this, but many Governments across Europe had to invest into their own Airlines and they are now partly in the hands of their governments again (Germany 9 Billion Euros for Lufthansa). Many national airlines aka Governments in Europe can`t afford another year without flying abroad considering Jobs and Money they would loose.

[steviewevie]

How COVID-19 Ended Flu Season Before It Started

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-covid-19-ended-flu-season-before-it-started/amp/

[eFestivals]

8 minutes ago, Paul ™ said:

But it doesnt just affect UK businesses, if there was a full UK closure then that knocks on to other countries and their businesses.

Something that happened in the first lockdown, when almost all flying stopped into the uk. Most flights were small private planes. 

 

8 minutes ago, Paul ™ said:

Plus the UK Government will not fund those businesses here for the full year and potentially longer as this virus and it's variants are not going away anytime soon in full
They want to get things open not restrict things further so a full shut-down will never happen here, same as a full hotel quarantine either.

 

The UK is funding UK employees and companies. Not necessarily to the right amounts, but the airline industry isn't deserving of special treatment. 

[Ozanne]

Zero COVID approach seems to have worked in other countries such as NZ and Australia. Crowds bad back for sport, live gigs and festivals. Our approach doesn't seem that much better.

[Crazyfool01]

8 minutes ago, HalfAnIdiot said:

Can we bring back upvotes limited to Toilet Duck only please 🙂. 

These post are bloody invaluable. Thank you @Toilet Duck.

can we just bring them back to people that provide useful information , great photos , comedy ..... and simpsons memes ? ... in fact can we just bring them back ? 

[Ozanne]

4 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

can we just bring them back to people that provide useful information , great photos , comedy ..... and simpsons memes ? ... in fact can we just bring them back ? 

Indeed, Toilet Duck isn't the only one that provides helpful information.

Edited February 7, 2021 by Ozanne

[zero000]

18 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Unfortunately this is what happens when mathematicians venture into biology. A “fully vax-resistant variant” doesn’t really mean anything (a change so big that our immune response doesn’t recognise it at all would be pretty much be a new strain entirely). At the moment, we are in that equilibrium finding phase with the virus (as we push back with naturally and vaccine-acquired immunity), but (partial) evasion of neutralising antibodies is all that is required by the virus to be successful. Thankfully, that doesn’t mean that the rest of our immune system ignores the virus growing in our cells. All the empirical evidence we have to date supports this (reduction in efficacy in terms of preventing infection with the new variants (specifically the E484K containing variants), not much impact on efficacy at preventing severe disease, hospitalisation and death). What evolutionary gain does the virus make if it not only evades the immune response to infection (allowing it to grow and be passed on) but also adds in evasion of all parts of our immune systems and renders us immobile and eventually dead? The former is much better for the virus, so that’s the greater evolutionary pressure. Christina has made many valuable contributions to the debate over the last while, but I think this is wide of the mark and you can’t simply ignore biology. Changes are random, it’s entirely possible that a new strain emerges from human to human spread, but normally it doesn’t work like that (other circulating CoVs accumulate changes but haven’t evolved into super infectious, super deadly strains...why would this one in particular be different?). I just don’t think elimination is a viable option with this virus, its biology doesn’t really support it, but mitigating serious morbidity and mortality as a result of it is an achievable goal (the one we are aiming for). 

Really interesting. Thanks for your response TD. As others have said consider this an upvote!
 

Out of interest could you say more about why the biology of the virus doesn’t fit with an elimination strategy?

[Ozanne]

 

 

[Paul ™]

Just now, eFestivals said:

the airline industry isn't deserving of special treatment. 

Exactly, so they won't continue to support them indefinetely if they were to shut airports, whilst the rest of the country opens up.
So a full shut down will not happen.

[jannybruck]

@Toilet Duckyour responses in here have been the balm I need in amongst the media clickbait shitshow that has been the past year, so helpful and measured. Let me know a charity of your choosing and I'll sacrifice my Sunday takeaway and send them some cash instead.

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, jannybruck said:

@Toilet Duckyour responses in here have been the balm I need in amongst the media clickbait shitshow that has been the past year, so helpful and measured. Let me know a charity of your choosing and I'll sacrifice my Sunday takeaway and send them some cash instead.

upvote ... lovely gesture 🙂 

[fraybentos1]

14 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Indeed, Toilet Duck isn't the only one that provides helpful information.

I wish I could downvote this lol.

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, fraybentos1 said:

I wish I could downvote this lol.

I would do it on your behalf but im all out today 🙂 

[rascalpete]

28 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

My dad did too! 

 

57 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

My mum had the AZ vaccine today 

My mum did too (yesterday)

[Toilet Duck]

17 minutes ago, zero000 said:

Really interesting. Thanks for your response TD. As others have said consider this an upvote!
 

Out of interest could you say more about why the biology of the virus doesn’t fit with an elimination strategy?

It has lots of possible animal reservoirs, it spreads asymptomatically, even in symptomatic individuals, the infectious period is long enough for further spread before any significant symptoms appear, mild infection that allows the virus to replicate, be shed and passed on to others occurs in the upper respiratory tract (and the virus has excellent affinity for receptors in that part of the body) which makes it easy to transmit, speaking, shouting, singing, breathing all appear to be sufficient to generate aerosols to perpetuate spread and the vast majority of the time, it doesn’t kill its host (not trivialising the associated mortality here, it’s horrendous, but just in biological terms, it’s not a particularly deadly virus, just too many people have been infected with it). 

You can pursue a zero Covid strategy for a defined period, but at some point you have to accept that unless you keep things like that forever, people will become infected with it (since it’s unlikely we will eliminate it globally for the reasons above). How you arm people to deal with that is the key, hence, a high level of vaccination among those most vulnerable to the more serious effects of the virus is the answer (and for example, take up rate of the vaccine in Ireland among vulnerable groups is currently at 99.6%). 
 

edit: I should add that short of smallpox, we really haven’t eliminated any other infectious diseases. Polio should be and is achievable, there’s a few others we are close to, measles was getting there, but then Andrew Wakefield came along! 

Edited February 7, 2021 by Toilet Duck

[xxialac]

 

1 hour ago, HalfAnIdiot said:

Somehow aggression seems so much more honest than passive-agression....

Just to understand, is this statement implying that better to be aggressive/direct ('honest') than passive aggressive/indirect (less honest)?

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

It has lots of possible animal reservoirs, it spreads asymptomatically, even in symptomatic individuals, the infectious period is long enough for further spread before any significant symptoms appear, mild infection that allows the virus to replicate, be shed and passed on to others occurs in the upper respiratory tract (and the virus has excellent affinity for receptors in that part of the body) which makes it easy to transmit, speaking, shouting, singing, breathing all appear to be sufficient to generate aerosols to perpetuate spread and the vast majority of the time, it doesn’t kill its host (not trivialising the associated mortality here, it’s horrendous, but just in biological terms, it’s not a particularly deadly virus, just too many people have been infected with it). 

You can pursue a zero Covid strategy for a defined period, but at some point you have to accept that unless you keep things like that forever, people will become infected with it (since it’s unlikely we will eliminate it globally for the reasons above). How you arm people to deal with that is the key, hence, a high level of vaccination among those most vulnerable to the more serious effects of the virus is the answer (and for example, take up rate of the vaccine in Ireland among vulnerable groups is currently at 99.6%). 

what about SARS 1 (or whatever it is called)...? Is that still around and has mutated to become less deadly? Or did it die out?