When will this shit end?

[Chapple12345]

Absolutely fantastic vaccination numbers today, this has really given me some hope that this week we'll continue to see some big numbers perhaps into millions over 2 days 

[steviewevie]

 

[JoeyT]

With Leeds now winning 3-1 dry January is going to have the arse smashed out of it this afternoon.

Get in!

Edited January 31, 2021 by JoeyT

[Avalon_Fields]

22 minutes ago, dingbat2 said:

For me. thats the most important table there is in determining the order of who gets vaccinated and in what order. Its quite an eye opener as it shows the rewards from vaccinating each group, its incredible to think that vaccinating just 20 people in a care home would save one life (assuming the vaccinations is 100% effective) Its also the table which should be referred to when determining when restrictions can start to be lifted, in terms of risks (deaths and hospitalisations) versus reward (to mental health, the economy, etc)

Is there a more up to date version of this, as its a couple pf months out of date now, and it would be interesting to see if those percentages are broadly the same now, especially with the new variant, and on the face of it more younger people people hospitalised recently

Also it starkly highlights the moral issue to me, we could vaccinate 47000 in group 10 here and save one life, or we could give those 47000 vaccines to another country with a Covid problem and  no vaccine and save 940 people in their care homes (assuming they have the infrastructure to vaccinate like we do)

 

It is a moral dilemma, when we get a good proportion vaccinated it will become so. The UK may well have the opportunity to lead the world in providing vaccinations globally so I believe we will be doing a great act both to our own people and around the world. Let’s hope so.

it’s perfectly reasonable to protect our own people first in my view.

 

[Toilet Duck]

1 hour ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Thank you for the reassurance! Yes I've no plans to see her any time soon, but just wanted to square this up with what's happening in Europe with over 65s and the AZ. I like your confidence though! 

Only Germany has suggested they will hold off on over 65s (France might follow them). In Ireland, we have no plans to do anything other than what you guys are doing with it. EMA also approved the 12 week gap (which seems to have been missed in all the furore over deliveries and threats of export bans and other nonsense)...

[Chawk]

17 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Someone posted this reply to me on twitter when I was saying about EU commission being slow compared to UK in vaccine procurement...

Had the EU not handled procurement, big, rich countries now would be better off, while small, poor countries would be much worse. EU joint procurement was slow because they had to accomodate 27 different governments. Had the EU been a federation it would have been much faster.

I mean, maybe. But it'd helpful if they specified which countries instead of using the 'poor country' umbrella. Hungary's one of the poorest member states and has recently approved the Russian and Chinese vaccine because they're frustrated with how slow it's going with the EU. (OK, this is also likely because the government there is anti EU).

Accommodating members shouldn't have caused how slow the EC has been in signing contracts, approving vaccines, and increasing production. Like specifically what were the different countries asking for that has caused it to be so slow? Was the build up to vaccine development not long enough to sort it out? 

[steviewevie]

PHE's Dr Susan Hopkins on lockdown easing.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55878450

[stuartbert two hats]

I'm not saying we're not going to get there, but we're not at a sustained 7 day average of >500k just yet.

Come on Moderna (and the other two!)

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, Chawk said:

I mean, maybe. But it'd helpful if they specified which countries instead of using the 'poor country' umbrella. Hungary's one of the poorest member states and has recently approved the Russian and Chinese vaccine because they're frustrated with how slow it's going with the EU. (OK, this is also likely because the government there is anti EU).

Accommodating members shouldn't have caused how slow the EC has been in signing contracts, approving vaccines, and increasing production. Like specifically what were the different countries asking for that has caused it to be so slow? Was the build up to vaccine development not long enough to sort it out? 

I don't know...shall I ask them? Maybe had to get approval from each govt before signing a contract, slows things down a bit, unlike the young and funky uk.

[steviewevie]

whoops did something silly

 

Edited January 31, 2021 by steviewevie

[Ozanne]

Today’s figures:

[Ozanne]

Vaccination update:

[zahidf]

5 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Today’s figures:

Hopefully sustained reductions at that level next week if not more.

[zahidf]

 

[Fuzzy Afro]

The percentage reduction is cases is actually getting faster suggesting R is not only below 1, but is actually quite considerably below 1. 
 

I think vaccines are already starting to reduce the spread. There’s no other reason why the drop in cases has accelerated. 

[MEGABOWL]

5 hours ago, Ozanne said:

I think they’ll mainly at hospital admissions, if those are staying at a lowish level and are static then they I think they’ll press ahead with their plan to loosen measures.

Also furlough does end at the end of April but there’s going to a budget in March so it could be extended. 

FWIW the Gossip within Aviation is that it’s going to get extended for certain sectors. Aviation being one of the most obvious if Summer travel doesn’t happen. The company I work for-NATS-has over 1000 employees on Furlough I.e. they’re taking about £2million a month from the Government.

[Toilet Duck]

11 minutes ago, Chawk said:

I mean, maybe. But it'd helpful if they specified which countries instead of using the 'poor country' umbrella. Hungary's one of the poorest member states and has recently approved the Russian and Chinese vaccine because they're frustrated with how slow it's going with the EU. (OK, this is also likely because the government there is anti EU).

Accommodating members shouldn't have caused how slow the EC has been in signing contracts, approving vaccines, and increasing production. Like specifically what were the different countries asking for that has caused it to be so slow? Was the build up to vaccine development not long enough to sort it out? 

The EU countries not using Moderna are a pretty good guide (while the EU did the procurement, and offered a per capita share, each country pays for their own doses, so Ireland gets 1.1% of Pfizer shots, but gets a higher share of Moderna as not all countries decided to pay the eye watering price, Germany for example snapped up 50m of the 160m Moderna doses ordered, way more than a per capita share). The EU collectively paid half as much per dose as the UK did for the AZ shot and somewhere in the region of €10-12 for Pfizer (compared to $60+ in Israel) so that they would be affordable for everyone and not just Germany. The AZ shot is the backbone of many EU countries vaccination programmes (Germany isn’t overly fussed as they ordered an extra 30m Pfizer shots plus their extra Moderna shots gives them enough to vaccinate their adult population anyway, but for the sake of expediency, could roll out AZ to younger people and get the economy open again). So, I have no problem as an EU citizen with how they negotiated price, nor how they decided to divvy up the doses.

We’ve been through EMA CMA vs MHRA EUA before, but there’s subtle differences in the mechanisms (liability and reporting requirements especially), so again, I’ve no real gripe with how the EMA approved the vaccines.

Where the EU really appears to have dropped the ball is in investment to facilitate manufacturing at scale (especially compared to the UK and the US). This they need to rectify ASAP. 

[Chapple12345]

20 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

The percentage reduction is cases is actually getting faster suggesting R is not only below 1, but is actually quite considerably below 1. 
 

I think vaccines are already starting to reduce the spread. There’s no other reason why the drop in cases has accelerated. 

I think it's that and the schools being closed to most children  have really dropped it down quickly, I'm glad to see things are slowly getting better and meets hope the falls continue

[zahidf]

16 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

The EU countries not using Moderna are a pretty good guide (while the EU did the procurement, and offered a per capita share, each country pays for their own doses, so Ireland gets 1.1% of Pfizer shots, but gets a higher share of Moderna as not all countries decided to pay the eye watering price, Germany for example snapped up 50m of the 160m Moderna doses ordered, way more than a per capita share). The EU collectively paid half as much per dose as the UK did for the AZ shot and somewhere in the region of €10-12 for Pfizer (compared to $60+ in Israel) so that they would be affordable for everyone and not just Germany. The AZ shot is the backbone of many EU countries vaccination programmes (Germany isn’t overly fussed as they ordered an extra 30m Pfizer shots plus their extra Moderna shots gives them enough to vaccinate their adult population anyway, but for the sake of expediency, could roll out AZ to younger people and get the economy open again). So, I have no problem as an EU citizen with how they negotiated price, nor how they decided to divvy up the doses.

We’ve been through EMA CMA vs MHRA EUA before, but there’s subtle differences in the mechanisms (liability and reporting requirements especially), so again, I’ve no real gripe with how the EMA approved the vaccines.

Where the EU really appears to have dropped the ball is in investment to facilitate manufacturing at scale (especially compared to the UK and the US). This they need to rectify ASAP. 

Which is weird because you'd think having 27 different countries in their block, they could have had a whole host of different places for manufacture 

[zahidf]

28 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

The percentage reduction is cases is actually getting faster suggesting R is not only below 1, but is actually quite considerably below 1. 
 

I think vaccines are already starting to reduce the spread. There’s no other reason why the drop in cases has accelerated. 

 

[Toilet Duck]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

Which is weird because you'd think having 27 different countries in their block, they could have had a whole host of different places for manufacture 

They do, there’s tons of places making vaccine now, Sanofi, Bayer and others are going to contract manufacture vaccine, without Lonza, none of us would be getting Moderna any time soon and Catalent, Rovi and others have massive fill & finish contracts. But even Pfizer had to shut down to make adjustments to facilitate the kind of production required (and I know from friends in the company they were shifting production of other things right back in the summer to get ready for making vaccine at certain sites). It just doesn’t seem to have occurred to the EU that there needed to be some additional investment in making sure all the capacity was fit for purpose. I think they just figured we have the infrastructure already so we just need to book the doses, but nothing on this scale with this level of coordination required has been tried before and I think they took their eye off the ball. 

[Crazyfool01]

Captain Tom taken to hospital with breathing issues linked to covid  😞 

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Captain Tom taken to hospital with breathing issues linked to covid  😞 

OH NO! has he not had a vaccine?

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, steviewevie said:

OH NO! has he not had a vaccine?

Thats bizzarre ....hadnt thought of that 

[Cooter]

may have had it but not taken affect when he was infected. Here's hoping he pulls through, thinking of you Captain Tom, you can do this!!