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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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6 minutes ago, dingbat2 said:

I feel I need to ask another naive question so apologies...

How do I reconcile/explain the following apparent, on the face of it, inconsistency in the data sets?

1. Case rates have been coming down sharply the last couple of weeks (people who have had a test and tested positive)

2. ONS data on people with Covid being flat or falling only slightly (people who are randomly chosen from the entire population to do a test)

Why is one falling quickly but the other measure is only falling very slightly? Is it because we as a population are becoming more resistant to the virus so we get it but suffer less symptoms than we used to, so don't seek a test? Or are people being more 'lightly touched' by the virus now as they aren't generally being significantly exposed to high viral loads since lockdown so aren't suffering symptoms as much as pre lock down? 

Struggling to reconcile the two sets of data....

That’s not a naive question, it’s a good point and could be explained by what you’ve said. I guess there is also a possibility that as bad symptoms that prompt people to take a test are more likely skewed towards older people, vaccinations/herd immunity/people unfortunately dying already, might be having an impact on that cohort. 

Edited by Deaf Nobby Burton
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11 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Yeah I do agree with that, us saying it’s a benefit of Brexit is bound to grate on them. But their dispute about a contract they have with a supplier we also have a contract with is absolutely nothing to do with us.

I don't understand.

Yes, you're right, it's nothing to do with the UK

But the accusatory statements Van der Leyen and the EU are making are indeed directed at Astrazeneca, not the UK. 

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Bet Spaffer can't believe his luck. The UK well ahead in jabs given, EU kicks up a fuss re: AZ and threatens stop P/B supply, then along comes UK made Novavax. Wish I was a fly on the wall to UK/EU discussions. Maybe goes something like "Disrupting our P/B supplies will imperil the Belgium AZ license and any export of Novavax"

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6 minutes ago, xxialac said:

I don't understand.

Yes, you're right, it's nothing to do with the UK

But the accusatory statements Van der Leyen and the EU are making are indeed directed at Astrazeneca, not the UK. 

Well I was responding to a comment saying U.K. and EU relations are particularly strained, and I was saying they shouldn’t be. 

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4 minutes ago, xxialac said:

I don't understand.

Yes, you're right, it's nothing to do with the UK

But the accusatory statements Van der Leyen and the EU are making are indeed directed at Astrazeneca, not the UK. 

Stupid accusation by Van set Leyen that "best endeavours" stop when vaccine has passed it's  development & testing. Its one thing making products on a small scale, its a while new development process to derive large volume. Obviously never had a proper job!

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2 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Well I was responding to a comment saying U.K. and EU relations are particularly strained, and I was saying they shouldn’t be. 

Ah apologies if I misunderstood. Agree there's no reason for them to be strained over this, unless perhaps the EU feels the UK is being disingenuous about not disclosing the terms of its AZ contract (claiming for 'security reasons).

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4 hours ago, Mr.Tease said:

I think the Johnson & Johnson vaccine should be great news for poorer countries- easier storage and only one dosage is an absolute life saver for under developed health care systems that might not have the capacity to give 2 doses to large numbers of the population. Plus it essentially halves the time needed to vaccinate people.

Its great for people in general. Because believe it or not people are stupid and will forget about the second dose or even not want to next one if they get mild side effects and dont think its worth getting the next round. And local governments have to ensure they give enough reminders or implement an efficient system to get the person to receive the second dose.

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6 minutes ago, xxialac said:

Ah apologies if I misunderstood. Agree there's no reason for them to be strained over this, unless perhaps the EU feels the UK is being disingenuous about not disclosing the terms of its AZ contract (claiming for 'security reasons).

Maybe it's like when you keep losing at a video game and start to genuinely become convinced that the console MUST be cheating! That's the only possible explanation!

Or maybe the UK has done something dodgy , who knows, but think the EU have handled it badly.

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14 minutes ago, Lycra said:

Stupid accusation by Van set Leyen that "best endeavours" stop when vaccine has passed it's  development & testing. Its one thing making products on a small scale, its a while new development process to derive large volume. Obviously never had a proper job!

von der Leyen has a really interesting backstory including living under an alias in London because the Red Army Faction were looking at kidnapping her in the 70's, studying economics at LSE then qualifying as a doctor and teaching epidemiology in Germany followed by getting a Masters in Public Health. She's done quite a bit. Don't mention the thesis though.....

Edited by Copperface
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3 minutes ago, Suprefan said:

Its great for people in general. Because believe it or not people are stupid and will forget about the second dose or even not want to next one if they get mild side effects and dont think its worth getting the next round. And local governments have to ensure they give enough reminders or implement an efficient system to get the person to receive the second dose.

I am curious/worried what happens when second doses are due- how many missed appointments are there? Do first dose vaccinations essentially come to a halt for 3 months or can we double vaccination capacity so we can do large numbers of first AND second doses?

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1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

They're fucked off and panicing.

I do think people need to calm down and maybe try and work something out...

In a hypothetical situation and if the situation was reversed how do you think the UK would be reacting?

Can you imagine the papers? Mark Francois and Steve Baker would be demanding we invaded Belgium. 

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3 hours ago, northernringo said:

This is madness, surely you could just put posters up either side of the camera/on the walls, etc and look at them whilst 'pondering'.

Sorry if this has been answered, I'm a few hours behind. I've recently had to take an exam for my degree course which was remotely proctored (that's the name for having them spy on you using your own webcam). They make you do a scan of the room before you start, but I suppose if you've got people in your house willing to help then it's not impossible to cheat.

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The EU hasn’t actually done anything yet to our vaccine supply they’ve just put in measures to monitor exports and activated a mechanism that is in a legally signed treaty. The UK can’t exactly take the high road when 6 months ago they were happy to break international law over NI anyway. 

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2 minutes ago, Copperface said:

In a hypothetical situation and if the situation was reversed how do you think the UK would be reacting?

Can you imagine the papers? Mark Francois and Steve Baker would be demanding we invaded Belgium. 

yeah, maybe...but it isn't...and now with this NI Article 16 thing this is getting pretty bad. Things need to just calm down, we are fighting the virus, not each other.

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2 minutes ago, Copperface said:

In a hypothetical situation and if the situation was reversed how do you think the UK would be reacting?

Can you imagine the papers? Mark Francois and Steve Baker would be demanding we invaded Belgium. 

Yeah, I tried to write out the exact same situation only reversing all the roles and then gave up as my brain hurt. 

But definitely I sense we would be baying for blood if we had a contract with a German/French pharma, whose development we had funded, and they didn't deliver what they promised but were continuing to supply their local country buyer.

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12 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

I am curious/worried what happens when second doses are due- how many missed appointments are there? Do first dose vaccinations essentially come to a halt for 3 months or can we double vaccination capacity so we can do large numbers of first AND second doses?

Yeah. It comes down to supply. Over here across the atlantic there have been some hiccups with trying to jab as many people as possible regardless of second dose and hoping that more shipments would be received in time . Its a risky strategy but I feel that with more vaccines coming up that the supply issues will become moot. We're supposed to get 100 mil of J&J by mid spring or so and that will make a huge difference, especially that by then you assume there are many more vaccination sites created and itll be distributed to other places. There are already supermarket and drug store chains here that are offering the vaccine, you just need to be eligible and get an appointment. Hopefully Biden takes up the big music promoters offers of them turning venues into vaccine sites.

Edited by Suprefan
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24 minutes ago, Chawk said:

It's in their interest to limit any perceived success of the UK in order to discourage any other EU countries from leaving i guess. 

Yes, but it's not just a question of us looking to be doing better than them, if we get everyone vaccinated and back to something like a normal economy any delay in europe will leave them way behind and struggling to rebuild, I suspect it's the long term economic effect of the delay that is causing them to panic.

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2 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

The EU hasn’t actually done anything yet to our vaccine supply they’ve just put in measures to monitor exports and activated a mechanism that is in a legally signed treaty. The UK can’t exactly take the high road when 6 months ago they were happy to break international law over NI anyway. 

Agreed. It’s interesting to see the anti-EU rhetoric on here less than a month out of the transition period

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1 minute ago, xxialac said:

Yeah, I tried to write out the exact same situation only reversing all the roles and then gave up as my brain hurt. 

But definitely I sense we would be baying for blood if we had a contract with a German/French pharma, whose development we had funded, and they didn't deliver what they promised but were continuing to supply their local country buyer.

Definite air of hysteria around due to the desperate state the world is in. I'm sure it'll settle down and happy medium will be arrived at  and in time, the real facts will be revealed, if there is more to find.

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