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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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As it’s looking like the J&J Janssen is due to report imminently and we have 30m doses on order (one dose only needed), does anyone know whether this is ‘stockpiled’ already? If so upon authorisation from MHRA (3 weeks?) won’t this help with the current ‘spat’ over supplies - I’m so hoping they have stockpiled like it was reported they were doing so last year on all pre-orders

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17 minutes ago, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

How do you know the vaccine would end up with vuberable people? Do these other countries have the capacity to roll them out? 

Would you rather the vaccine was used on someone or nobody as that is entirely possible in many of the countries with broken, or breaking governments. Simply sending a plane load of vaccine to Syria, Iraq or many other countries in the world means the vaccines will be able to be used - many countries simply don't have the mechanisms in place to do what we are doing. 

In the scenario I’m talking about there would be a process in place for vulnerable people in those countries to be given vaccines. They would just be put on a plane and sent on their way.

Therefore a world leader especially in vaccination programs it should be our duty to help those countries set-up good systems and help them protect their citizens too. We could be stepping in assist those other nations and be a leader in a global community. 

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2 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

In the scenario I’m talking about there would be a process in place for vulnerable people in those countries to be given vaccines. They would just be put on a plane and sent on their way.

Therefore a world leader especially in vaccination programs it should be our duty to help those countries set-up good systems and help them protect their citizens too. We could be stepping in assist those other nations and be a leader in a global community. 

And you saying we havent been? Weve invested heavily in COVAX

 

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7 minutes ago, zahidf said:

I notice quite a few in the senate and congress ( AOC) were very keen on getting the vaccine to 'encourage others'

lol - it's a bullshit justification at least until everyone who is happy to have the vaccine has had it.

By which time I reckon the skeptics will wise themselves up without the help of the likes of AOC, as they won't sit by and watch their own die unnecessarily.

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7 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

 

But surely that’s down to personal choice of the people in those categories and not any racial discrimination as this tweet suggests isn’t it? I’m not having it that GP’s etc are flicking through their patient list and selecting rich, white people to contact for the jab - I’m sure it will be being offered to all 80+’s fairly. Then the take up of that is a different matter as we cannot force anybody to take the jab. 

Edited by st dan
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1 minute ago, st dan said:

But surely that’s down to personal choice of the people in those categories and not any racial discrimination as this tweet suggests isn’t it? I’m not having it that GP’s etc are flicking through their patient list and selecting rich, where people to contact for the jab - I’m sure it will be being offered to all 80+’s fairly. Then the take up of that is a different matter as we cannot force anybody to take the jab. 

yep, but it's a problem. They need convincing/persuading.

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2 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Id be interested if its based on BAME rejecting the vaccine?

seems to be the obvious conclusion.

What's interesting is that take up appears to be a fair bit higher than polls have indicated for those groups (when measured against white people). That might be a consequence of old people and healthcare workers within those vaccinated so far, but that is going to help uptake as we work thru the other vaccination age groups.

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1 minute ago, st dan said:

But surely that’s down to personal choice of the people in those categories and not any racial discrimination as this tweet suggests isn’t it? I’m not having it that GP’s etc are flicking through their patient list and selecting rich, where people to contact for the jab - I’m sure it will be being offered to all 80+’s fairly. Then the take up of that is a different matter as we cannot force anybody to take the jab. 

There is variation in the provision of the jab in certain areas. For example I live on the boundary of Swindon and Oxfordshire. Oxfordshire has currently vaccinated a higher proportion of their 80+ than Swindon. So there may be some regional variation. However, it is true there is general distrust from BAME communities towards the government and for good reason given recent events. This is reducing take up in these communities

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My take, mostly informed speculation:

That article shows that we were looking at manufacturing 100 million doses, but with only some of those going to the UK, others going elsewhere. The timing suggests that this was at the point when Germany/France etc. were negotiating separately for vaccine supplies. So we were going to set up that manufacturing capability, and sell a whole bunch of it to those countries in Europe.

Then the EU decides that the whole thing should go through the EU commission, and that's going to take time. That means there is no longer a guarantee that we can sell 75% of our production to other countries: that's the very nature of negotiation, it could end up with no agreement being reached and the EU not ordering any AZ vaccine and taking a different approach. Which makes setting up two large manufacturers for it in the UK no longer viable - with the UK government only committing to around 25% of what they'd be making.

So during these months where the EU drag their heels, the UK step and say "fine, we'll take all 100 million doses, let's get this production online" - knowing as AZ stated, it'll take time to sort out the supply chain and it has to happen now, and the EU are not willing to commit *now*. It's a gamble, as there's still a chance it doesn't get approved in the UK, but it's a good bet as preliminary results are promising.

Then after this EU finally place their order. Now at this point the UK govt could allow access to the supplies made in the UK, but at this point there's no gamble left, it's a good vaccine, and the 100 million doses we ordered so we could get manufactured set up and online, we would quite like to keep actually. 

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1 minute ago, DeanoL said:

My take, mostly informed speculation:

That article shows that we were looking at manufacturing 100 million doses, but with only some of those going to the UK, others going elsewhere. The timing suggests that this was at the point when Germany/France etc. were negotiating separately for vaccine supplies. So we were going to set up that manufacturing capability, and sell a whole bunch of it to those countries in Europe.

Then the EU decides that the whole thing should go through the EU commission, and that's going to take time. That means there is no longer a guarantee that we can sell 75% of our production to other countries: that's the very nature of negotiation, it could end up with no agreement being reached and the EU not ordering any AZ vaccine and taking a different approach. Which makes setting up two large manufacturers for it in the UK no longer viable - with the UK government only committing to around 25% of what they'd be making.

So during these months where the EU drag their heels, the UK step and say "fine, we'll take all 100 million doses, let's get this production online" - knowing as AZ stated, it'll take time to sort out the supply chain and it has to happen now, and the EU are not willing to commit *now*. It's a gamble, as there's still a chance it doesn't get approved in the UK, but it's a good bet as preliminary results are promising.

Then after this EU finally place their order. Now at this point the UK govt could allow access to the supplies made in the UK, but at this point there's no gamble left, it's a good vaccine, and the 100 million doses we ordered so we could get manufactured set up and online, we would quite like to keep actually. 

Yeah thats probably in line with the dates as well: they were initially going to sign the European countries in June, before the commission got involved and faffed around for 2.5 months.

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19 minutes ago, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

Maybe one for @Toilet Duck...

Ignoring the ethics. Scientifically uould it be possible to create a version of the virus that is so transmissible it would become the dominant version that is resistant to mutation which the vaccines are effective against and release it - thus getting herd immunity? 

Effectively artificially speed up the evolution of the virus I guess. 

It's a nice idea, but unfortunately, engineering and releasing a new biological agent into the population and having a clue what will happen is just far too risky. Think rabbits, Australia. 

There's no way to make a virus that is resistant to mutation basically. It replicates inside of our cells. The machinery that replicates the genome is the machinery in each of our cells and it makes mistakes (it makes mistakes when it duplicates our genome too, every time a cell inside us divides...and billions of them die and are replaced every day. I always found it a bit reassuring to know that whatever age we are as an organism, at a cellular level we are all still young as there are very few cells inside us that are more than a few years old!). So unless we also engineer every human to make sure that we have genome replication apparatus that never makes a mistake, then the virus would simply eventually evolve to evade our immune systems and then we have a super transmissible virus loose, that doesn't respond to vaccines and can acquire more alterations the impact of which we know nothing about. There isn't really a short cut here (what is currently happening is a lightening fast response to be honest). In terms of more permanent solutions, there are biotech companies looking at developing vaccines that are targeted to parts of a whole range of viruses that don't change much (including all the coronaviruses). More or less broad spectrum vaccines. They are a way off and we've no idea yet whether they will work (a universal flu vaccine would be a start and a huge win and we still don't have one of those), but now that we have new proven (on a large scale) vaccine technology, there are exciting possibilities on the horizon. 

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19 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

 

I’m sure I read the vaccines have been distributed based on overall population numbers, rather than ratios based on older age groups, vulnerable etc.

So could this be the case that, in Surrey where my parents live who are getting their vaccine this week and are both mid seventies, the older people are generally more wealthy and therefore more spaced out, compared to say certain London boroughs where perhaps their is higher saturation of older people who are far more likely to be bame?

My parents aren’t wealthy btw they live in an ex council house. 

Edited by Deaf Nobby Burton
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13 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

My take, mostly informed speculation:

That article shows that we were looking at manufacturing 100 million doses, but with only some of those going to the UK, others going elsewhere. The timing suggests that this was at the point when Germany/France etc. were negotiating separately for vaccine supplies. So we were going to set up that manufacturing capability, and sell a whole bunch of it to those countries in Europe.

Then the EU decides that the whole thing should go through the EU commission, and that's going to take time. That means there is no longer a guarantee that we can sell 75% of our production to other countries: that's the very nature of negotiation, it could end up with no agreement being reached and the EU not ordering any AZ vaccine and taking a different approach. Which makes setting up two large manufacturers for it in the UK no longer viable - with the UK government only committing to around 25% of what they'd be making.

So during these months where the EU drag their heels, the UK step and say "fine, we'll take all 100 million doses, let's get this production online" - knowing as AZ stated, it'll take time to sort out the supply chain and it has to happen now, and the EU are not willing to commit *now*. It's a gamble, as there's still a chance it doesn't get approved in the UK, but it's a good bet as preliminary results are promising.

Then after this EU finally place their order. Now at this point the UK govt could allow access to the supplies made in the UK, but at this point there's no gamble left, it's a good vaccine, and the 100 million doses we ordered so we could get manufactured set up and online, we would quite like to keep actually. 

Totally agree with this stance.

It’s like being in the queue for Glastonbury tickets, getting through to the ordering page and then ringing your friends to check if they definitely still want to go. By the time you’ve all finally decided yes, the booking page has refreshed and the ‘All Sold Out’ message now appears. You ring Seetickets and tell them what’s happened and they say ‘sorry about that, but others got in there and ordered  all the tickets’. Try again in the resale in a few months’. You can’t demand a ticket because you had the chance and didn’t take it. 

Edited by st dan
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Surely we are going to end up with way too much vaccine once we are done here ? Where does it go then ? To the eu that might not have finished at the same time ? Or will they have plenty at that point ? .... do these excesses get automatically sent to nations that need them ? 

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