When will this shit end?

[xxialac]

1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

if it's ;like that, it'll be interesting to see whether people shout as loudly as the can: 'FAIL'.

Barely anyone will, as to come so close plus clearly be far more effective on a relative basiswill be a great achievement. Criticism was reserved for them overpromising and underdelivering for the nth time. To their great credit, they clearly haven't here.

[eFestivals]

Just now, xxialac said:

Barely anyone will

I don't share your confidence, for this this thread if not in the wider world. 😛 

[Fuzzy Afro]

9 minutes ago, Gregfc15 said:

Quick maths based on the 25/1 Vaccination data: (I hope its right...)

15 Million minus 6,853,327 leaves 8,146,673 jabs of the target to go. That equates to 387,937 per day. Based on the 3 massive days last week, I think it's fair to say they are behind, but still with a decent chance of reaching the target if they can reach those levels again. 

The problem from a pure yes/no perspective is that the 14 and 15th are a Sunday/Monday which are the 2 worst days so far, so quite possible they fall short on the 15th, but hit it later in the week when the big days data comes in.

 

 

 

6 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

if it's ;like that, it'll be interesting to see whether people shout as loudly as the can: 'FAIL'.

Remember that not all of the 15m will accept the vaccine. So even if they can get to 13m-14m by then, it might be that everyone in groups 1-4 who wants a vaccine has had one. 

[Ozanne]

It’ll also be key to see what the trend is like, if week on week it’s still going up then they’ll clearly be doing something right even if they do miss the target by a few.

[zahidf]

10 minutes ago, Gregfc15 said:

Quick maths based on the 25/1 Vaccination data: (I hope its right...)

15 Million minus 6,853,327 leaves 8,146,673 jabs of the target to go. That equates to 387,937 per day. Based on the 3 massive days last week, I think it's fair to say they are behind, but still with a decent chance of reaching the target if they can reach those levels again. 

The problem from a pure yes/no perspective is that the 14 and 15th are a Sunday/Monday which are the 2 worst days so far, so quite possible they fall short on the 15th, but hit it later in the week when the big days data comes in.

 

 

Isn't the first 4 cohorts around 13.9 million?

Fwiw I agree generally that it will be just below. But I think we will move into the lower sections (65 and 60+ ) that week, because some area will have reached the targets earlier than others  

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Remember that not all of the 15m will accept the vaccine. So even if they can get to 13m-14m by then, it might be that everyone in groups 1-4 who wants a vaccine has had one. 

alternatively they might get to or near 13M but fail to do all of those groups - which looks a possibility as we're seeing lots of stories about people outside of those groups who've had 'spare' jabs, plus a handful of 2nd jabs.

And given the daily jab numbers if it does badly fail now it's likely to be a failure of vaccine supply. 

[duke88]

4 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Isn't the first 4 cohorts around 13.9 million?

Fwiw I agree generally that it will be just below. But I think we will move into the lower sections (65 and 60+ ) that week, because some area will have reached the targets earlier than others  

We'll definitely be doing a lot of the 60-pluses by then, they're doing 70+ at the moment

[MEGABOWL]

9 hours ago, zahidf said:

FT lays into the EU

Have to agree with the FT. As much as pains me as a Remainer.

[Reckoner]

4 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

if it's ;like that, it'll be interesting to see whether people shout as loudly as the can: 'FAIL'.

Yeah, I can't remember if I posted anything at the time, but I was certainly dubious about the target when it was first announced. Not necessarily from a jabs in arm perspective of which Flu season has you well prepared but from a logistics/supply side from the makers/distributers and obviously the track record so far of overpromising. 

By getting things approved quickly as well as using the logistics expertise of the military, and getting needles in arms, you might dodge that until more countries come on board. Seems to be partially what the EU are finding out currently. Compare that to Oz as well who are yet to even start, and I think anything even close to 15m will be a good achievement. There are plenty of other areas that the criticism can be levelled at without needing to ready the brickbats for something they have mostly right (unless of course the vaccine ends up not working as well as expected, gap between doses etc..)

[Paul ™]

Anyone know roughly the uptake of the vaccine %? 

I expect it to be fairly high at moment at around 95%,

But as we come down the age brackets that will drop. Until we get to the younger generations where it will be around 70%, thoughts?

[steviewevie]

8 hours ago, zahidf said:

 

Eu decided to get some fish and chips for the kids and some quality chinese for the grown ups.

[xxialac]

I can't understand isn't there an internationally standardised certificate for vaccination yet?

Seems like such a basic thing for global leaders to put in place and could be useful in the near future.

[steviewevie]

Clever man on newsnight last reckoned we could see another 40-50k deaths by spring, and we'll see more and more pandemics with global warming and if we don't stop fucking with the wildlife.

[mcshed]

1 minute ago, steviewevie said:

Eu decided to get some fish and chips for the kids and some quality chinese for the grown ups.

As a complete aside the sight of people waiting outside takeaways in the sleet and snow as they are no longer allowed inside looked fucking bleak. That's not really a criticism of either the policy or those who decided picking up a chippy warranted standing there in the freezing cold, just an observation that it looked really grim.

[xxialac]

Biodiversity is suddenly a major focus among investors looking through a sustainability theme.

It's dawned on everyone that if we kill our ecosystem, we kill ourselves.

[Reckoner]

16 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Isn't the first 4 cohorts around 13.9 million?

Fwiw I agree generally that it will be just below. But I think we will move into the lower sections (65 and 60+ ) that week, because some area will have reached the targets earlier than others  

Yeah, groups 1- 4 are  13.9m from memory. The target seems to depend on who is talking. Some have referred to groups 1-4 whereas others have specifically said 15m by 15/2

To achieve 13.5m, they need to be at 316k per day which is about where they were on the day they reported 491k, and are above for last 7 days so they would seem likely to achieve that provided they hit the Wed-Sat numbers again from last week.

[gazzared]

8 hours ago, Toilet Duck said:

I do wonder though...I was in China at the end of November/Start of December that year (Shanghai and Suzhou, not Wuhan) and I caught something. It was something new I hadn't had before, didn't get a cough, but I ached like mad and was shivering uncontrollably (very weird). I'm anosmic anyway (too many allergies), so I wouldn't have noticed any change in smell (dead handy for the long drops at Glasto though!). I figured it was a flu or something (even though I had my flu shot), but it was definitely different to anything I've had before. Almost everyone else that was with me in China on that trip was sick afterwards as well (maybe up to about 3 weeks later or so).Though there was a nasty RSV infection doing the rounds at the time, none of us developed a cough. Normally I either fly through the Middle East or take the great circle route through Helsinki, but this time we flew with China Eastern for the craic as they had a new plane out of Schipol (I love planes!). But that meant that there were far more Chinese nationals on the plane than there would be with one of the Middle Eastern or European carriers, so there may well have been people from the region the virus emerged from who connected in Shanghai for flights to Europe (I think Wuhan only has direct connections to Europe in London and Rome)...it certainly appears that there were cases in Europe before Christmas at this stage. Anyway, I'll never really know unless I get an antibody test at some point and it could well be far too long ago by now, but I think the initial surveillance of what was happening as the virus emerged is a bit murky (hence WHO would like to properly investigate!). 

It was also reported that alot of the athletes who were competing in the Military World Games in Wuhan in October 2019 became ill.

we had no chance if the virus was already spreading around the world

10,000 competitors competed at the Games from over 100 countries 

https://www.insidethegames.biz/articles/1094347/world-military-games-illness-covid-19

Edited January 27, 2021 by gazzared
spelling

[st dan]

Stumbled across this doing the rounds on Twitter. Absolutely disgusting behaviour - I would have just said ‘fine off you go’ and let them all suffer the consequences. Hope his Vitamin C serves him well!
How medical professionals can remain calm in this situation is beyond me. They really don’t need idiots like this on top of all they are dealing with. 

[JoeyT]

Has the ability to upvote posts been removed @eFestivals?

[phimill]

Just some quick maths - and slight increases daily with big drop off (45%) on the weekend and we should have the 15million completed by 11th Feb (reported on the 12th)

 

[xxialac]

3 minutes ago, st dan said:

Stumbled across this doing the rounds on Twitter. Absolutely disgusting behaviour - I would have just said ‘fine off you go’ and let them all suffer the consequences. Hope his Vitamin C serves him well!
How medical professionals can remain calm in this situation is beyond me. They really don’t need idiots like this on top of all they are dealing with. 

That's unbelievably depressing

The UK can't claim to be an elite developed country if education standards can be this low.

[eFestivals]

16 minutes ago, Paul ™ said:

Anyone know roughly the uptake of the vaccine %? 

I expect it to be fairly high at moment at around 95%,

But as we come down the age brackets that will drop. Until we get to the younger generations where it will be around 70%, thoughts?

 

"the study found high levels of willingness to be vaccinated, with 82% of people saying they were likely or very likely to have the jab – rising to 96% among people over the age of 75."

(ignore the headline in the article)
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/16/covid-vaccine-black-people-unlikely-covid-jab-uk

That's risen from 64% at the beginning of December.

Uptake is going to be very high - and likely to be high even within the currently-highly skeptical groups. There's only so long they'll sit there watching their own die unnecessarily.

[zahidf]

 

[stuie]

12 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

Has the ability to upvote posts been removed @eFestivals?

Oh yeah... our ratings aren’t showing either! 

[MEGABOWL]

28 minutes ago, xxialac said:

I can't understand isn't there an internationally standardised certificate for vaccination yet?

Seems like such a basic thing for global leaders to put in place and could be useful in the near future.

Probably won’t happen without the Americans, then need everyone to agree to their standard.