When will this shit end?

[fraybentos1]

17 minutes ago, zahidf said:

There is some quite encouraging data buried in the headline Israel figures:

According to preliminary results published last week from a study of 600,000 recipients of the Pfizer vaccine, of 4,500 Israelis who tested positive after receiving their first vaccine dose, 244 were admitted to hospital because of the coronavirus in the first week following the jab,.. In the second week after the jab, 124 people were taken to hospital, but after that only seven more people fell ill enough to stay in hospital.

https://inews.co.uk/news/world/covid-vaccine-israel-vaccination-roll-out-transmissibility-programme-palestine-834999?ITO=msn

That suggests to me a very high real-world efficacy in terms of serious cases, which are after all the most important from a personal protection point of view.

Good article that is. This is interesting too:

''According to Israeli broadcaster Channel 12, preliminary research by healthcare provider Maccabi said the first dose of the vaccine reduced the risk of catching coronavirus by 60 per cent after 14 days.''

Baring in mind I believe even more immunity develops post 2 weeks.

[FestivalJamie]

1 hour ago, JoeyT said:

Medical grade masks?

Is there enough of them about?!

From today, in enclosed spaces in germany medical grade masks are now mandatory (3 layer surgical-disposable, n95, fpp2 or fpp3) only. Fpp2 are provided for free for elderly in pharmacies but rest of population must purchase their own. It’s not really too much of a problem given the disposable ones are now readily available at a cheap price and germany are manufacturing at higher volumes post the announcement- environmental impact is a concern though.

They are questioning the effects of reusable/cloth masks hence the new legislation. I know france are thinking of a similar move now too... so most likely Jeremy hunt is just trying to jump on the bandwagon with the idea. It’s not something I would object too but I also think we would need to be manufacturing high volumes of masks and selling for a very cheap price and I just don’t think the UK has those capabilities.

Edited January 21, 2021 by FestivalJamie

[incident]

Just now, Ozanne said:

While I think it's pretty likely that there's some selective interpretation there -

If hypothetically, NE & Yorkshire are ahead of everyone else, and that the reason mainly down to supply - doesn't it follow that they've previously been oversupplied and so any temporary reduction is just balancing things up?

[Ozanne]

Just now, FestivalJamie said:

From today, in enclosed spaces in germany medical grade masks are now mandatory (3 layer surgical-disposable, n95, fpp2 or fpp3) only. Fpp2 are provided for free for elderly in pharmacies but rest of population must purchase their own. It’s not really too much of a problem given the disposable ones are now readily available at a cheap price and germany are manufacturing at higher volumes post the announcement- environmental impact is a concern though.

They are questioning the effects of reusable/cloth masks hence the new legislation. I know france are thinking of a similar move now too... so most likely Jeremy hunt is just trying to jump on the bandwagon with the idea.

He could be positioning himself for another leadership bid to at some stage. 

[Ozanne]

2 minutes ago, incident said:

While I think it's pretty likely that there's some selective interpretation there -

If hypothetically, NE & Yorkshire are ahead of everyone else, and that the reason mainly down to supply - doesn't it follow that they've previously been oversupplied and so any temporary reduction is just balancing things up?

This is from the article:

Well-placed sources said the North East and Yorkshire, one of seven English NHS regions, had been told there would be around 100,000 doses available next week for its centres run by GP practices, which make up the large majority of current vaccinations. This will be down from about 200,000 this week.

They have been told the main reason is that large parts of the North East and Yorkshire have vaccinated a greater percentage of their population than other regions, including very many of the over 80s, meaning they are more quickly moving on to groups under 80.

 

[incident]

Just now, Ozanne said:

This is from the article:

Well-placed sources said the North East and Yorkshire, one of seven English NHS regions, had been told there would be around 100,000 doses available next week for its centres run by GP practices, which make up the large majority of current vaccinations. This will be down from about 200,000 this week.

They have been told the main reason is that large parts of the North East and Yorkshire have vaccinated a greater percentage of their population than other regions, including very many of the over 80s, meaning they are more quickly moving on to groups under 80.

 

Yes exactly.

Unless the other regions are sitting on unused supply (which I guess may be happening somewhere, but I don't think it's widespread), then they fact that they've managed to do a higher percentage indicates that they've likely had more doses relative to the population and so this is just supply management.

[Ozanne]

Just now, incident said:

Yes exactly.

Unless the other regions are sitting on unused supply (which I guess may be happening somewhere, but I don't think it's widespread), then they fact that they've managed to do a higher percentage indicates that they've likely had more doses relative to the population and so this is just supply management.

Yes sorry I posted that last bit in a rush, sounds like you are right!

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

10 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

 

As a resident of Yorkshire while on the face of it sounds negative, it does make sense if it allows other regions to catch up on their most vuberable. 

The levelling up agenda in reverse... 

[Fuzzy Afro]

Do Australia and New Zealand not import as many goods as we do? Struggling to understand how they get away with their closed borders without a haulage exemption.

[FestivalJamie]

1 hour ago, Chawk said:

It doesn't make a difference though as the PCR capacity is at 800,000+ tests daily, so the daily test requests are still below capacity and anyone who has symptoms is able to have a test. 

Yes PCR capacity is high but it doesn’t mean it’s fully utilised. Yesterday we “processed” 579.194 tests. 357,850 of these were PCR. Which means over 200,000 were the unreliable lateral flow tests. Most other countries only count PCR tests for their positivity rate which makes their rates look a lot worse than ours as they do not count lateral flow in their positivity data. As far as I’m aware, Italy are the only ones who adopt a similar strategy in reporting to us.

Yesterday there were 38,905 positives. Assuming these were mostly from PCR tests this changes the positivity rate from 6.5% to 10.9%, which is more in line with positivity rates in other countries e.g. germany which are purely based on PCR tests only.

The reporting on the dashboard is clear, I’m just talking about comparisons to other countries and that I don’t trust the reliability of the lateral flow tests and they are making up significant numbers of the daily testing.

[brettredmayne]

Wrong thread 

Edited January 21, 2021 by brettredmayne

[Fuzzy Afro]

That REACT study is fake as fuck. Classic stuff from Neil Ferguson.

 

You can’t just plot two points a month apart and draw a straight line between them. YES prevalence now is higher than it was in early December, but “infections are growing” ignores the fact that they grew to a very high peak and have come crashing down since. 

[Fuzzy Afro]

BBC have pulled their article on the REACT study and now Daily Mail who initially claimed cases to be rising again have published this critical piece 

 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9171131/amp/Gavin-Williamson-insists-brutal-curbs-having-impact-study-questioned-lockdown.html

[Fuzzy Afro]

@FestivalJamie - please explain why you reddie’d me for rubbishing the REACT survey when I have posted multiple pieces of evidence for why it’s not reliable? 

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

10 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

Yes PCR capacity is high but it doesn’t mean it’s fully utilised. Yesterday we “processed” 579.194 tests. 357,850 of these were PCR. Which means over 200,000 were the unreliable lateral flow tests. Most other countries only count PCR tests for their positivity rate which makes their rates look a lot worse than ours as they do not count lateral flow in their positivity data. As far as I’m aware, Italy are the only ones who adopt a similar strategy in reporting to us.

Yesterday there were 38,905 positives. Assuming these were mostly from PCR tests this changes the positivity rate from 6.5% to 10.9%, which is more in line with positivity rates in other countries e.g. germany which are purely based on PCR tests only.

The reporting on the dashboard is clear, I’m just talking about comparisons to other countries and that I don’t trust the reliability of the lateral flow tests and they are making up significant numbers of the daily testing.

All comparisons with other countries are of limited use because they use many different measures. 

If people are presenting for tests you can't process them. 

[eFestivals]

31 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Do Australia and New Zealand not import as many goods as we do? Struggling to understand how they get away with their closed borders without a haulage exemption.

they import goods in containers. There's no truckers trucking stuff in.

[Cherry Tree]

39 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Do Australia and New Zealand not import as many goods as we do? Struggling to understand how they get away with their closed borders without a haulage exemption.

The distance involved means the majority comes in unaccompanied by sea container or airfreight.

[steviewevie]

1 hour ago, zahidf said:

Oh God PAtel is doing the afternoon briefing...

phwoar.

[steviewevie]

58 minutes ago, incident said:

While I think it's pretty likely that there's some selective interpretation there -

If hypothetically, NE & Yorkshire are ahead of everyone else, and that the reason mainly down to supply - doesn't it follow that they've previously been oversupplied and so any temporary reduction is just balancing things up?

I thought it was part of levelling up.

[steviewevie]

Just saw the news about Glastonbury being cancelled. Bummer.

[MEGABOWL]

53 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Do Australia and New Zealand not import as many goods as we do? Struggling to understand how they get away with their closed borders without a haulage exemption.

They don’t. A minor example but Heathrow alone handled more Air freight in 2019 than Australia as a whole imported.

As others have said it’s also the way we get our imports that plays a part. On top of that both Australia and NZ tend to be destinations both in terms of freight and passengers whereas the U.K. like a lot of other European Countries, the US etc is a hub for inward and outward travel. 

Edited January 21, 2021 by MEGABOWL
‘Imported’

[MEGABOWL]

Just now, steviewevie said:

Just saw the news about Glastonbury being cancelled. Bummer.

Ah well. Maybe it’ll be on in 2021.

[SheffJeff]

1 hour ago, zahidf said:

Oh God PAtel is doing the afternoon briefing...

 

[zahidf]

350k plus vaccination yesterday 

 

[JoeyT]

Big numbers incoming...