When will this shit end?

[Fuzzy Afro]

29 minutes ago, Deaf Nobby Burton said:

Are these stories even coming directly from the government though? We’re they not annoyed when Scotland published the data showing 3.8m a week because it could undermine stocks? Or was that just a double bluff? Pretend to be annoyed, withdraw the information and then leak information with even more impressive figures? I don’t really get it.

They were annoyed because other countries might get uppity that we are getting higher stocks and thus it would lead to the manufacturers getting complaints. 

[zahidf]

Raab declined to confirm suggestions that a cabinet deal has been done to approve a three-point plan to begin lifting lockdown restrictions in England as soon as early March.

Asked about the report in the Sunday Times, Raab said the government hoped to be in a position to make those decisions in early Sspring, but he didn’t believe lockdown restrictions would be lifted in a “big bang.”

He believed that it would be done by phasing out the existing approach which is based on different tiers of restrictions applying to different areas at a given time.

[Ayrshire Chris]

monopoly updated! 

[MEGABOWL]

9 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Raab declined to confirm suggestions that a cabinet deal has been done to approve a three-point plan to begin lifting lockdown restrictions in England as soon as early March.

Asked about the report in the Sunday Times, Raab said the government hoped to be in a position to make those decisions in early Sspring, but he didn’t believe lockdown restrictions would be lifted in a “big bang.”

He believed that it would be done by phasing out the existing approach which is based on different tiers of restrictions applying to different areas at a given time.

Which could well be true, though it doesn’t necessarily mean any early March relaxation will be much. Could be huge psychological benefit to the Country to feel some light movement by then, even if very minor.

Edited January 17, 2021 by MEGABOWL

[zahidf]

No Xmas spike says BBC...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/55669736?__twitter_impression=true

[MEGABOWL]

Sorry double post

Edited January 17, 2021 by MEGABOWL

[stuartbert two hats]

49 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

It’s the dead cat theory again isn’t it, as seen so often through the pandemic. The thing is, sadly, it’s working though. 

Nah, dead cat theory is when they do something outrageous to distract from something more important. Getting the vaccine rollout right is far more normal and less cynical.

They definitely need to be held to account for everything they did before starting this last lockdown, but I genuinely can't fault them for pushing on and trying to do the best thing they can to fix the situation - I.e. keep lockdown going and throw everything they have at the vaccine rollout.

We still need to hold them accountable for their past failings, but focussing on how to get our of this mess isn't one of them.

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, zahidf said:

No Xmas spike says BBC...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/55669736?__twitter_impression=true

while including a graph that includes a post-xmas spike!

[MEGABOWL]

2 hours ago, steviewevie said:

Zero covid!

Does this mean could see long term restrictions on travel? Is this now going to be a big benefit of being out of EU/schengen and being an island?

Don’t know about long term but I work in Air Traffic and the info were getting now suggests June before we see much pick up. Would fit with the ‘all adults by June’ plan and also This finally happening

[xxialac]

Question for @Toilet Duck. 

They seem very keen to talk up the risks of the strains from other countries, when of course we have a strain of our own

Is it the case that the most infectious strain simply ends up becoming the dominant strain?

i.e. if you have two new strains: a strain that was 5% more infectious and one that was 50% more infectious, would the latter become the main strain, nullifying the negative impact of the former?

[Matt42]

Aiming for every adult offered by September. Reckon we will be in tiers until May/June?

[zero000]

20 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

They were annoyed because other countries might get uppity that we are getting higher stocks and thus it would lead to the manufacturers getting complaints. 

Plus the SNP leaked the locations where the vaccine is being stored. Which given it’s one of the most valuable commodities in the world right now, is a huge security risk. 

[xxialac]

In an interview on Sky’s Sophy Ridge on Sunday, Raab said: “Our target is by September to have offered all the adult population a first dose."

[zahidf]

Just now, Matt42 said:

Aiming for every adult offered by September. Reckon we will be in tiers until May/June?

Nah they are going to lift restrictions before that once the vulnerable have had the vaccinations.

[zahidf]

1 minute ago, xxialac said:

In an interview on Sky’s Sophy Ridge on Sunday, Raab said: “Our target is by September to have offered all the adult population a first dose."

Under promise and over achieve could be their plan.... if J and J gets approved, they can say 'we've accelerated the roll out'

[Deaf Nobby Burton]

3 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Nah they are going to lift restrictions before that once the vulnerable have had the vaccinations.

Yeah, I really can’t see them essentially doing a complete 180 and becoming ultra ultra cautious. They’ll surely ease restrictions when the virus can be managed in hospitals, not when we’ve all been vaccinated. 

Edited January 17, 2021 by Deaf Nobby Burton

[Toilet Duck]

6 minutes ago, xxialac said:

Question for @Toilet Duck. 

They seem very keen to talk up the risks of the strains from other countries, when of course we have a strain of our own

Is it the case that the most infectious strain simply ends up becoming the dominant strain?

i.e. if you have two new strains: a strain that was 5% more infectious and one that was 50% more infectious, would the latter become the main strain, nullifying the negative impact of the former?

Yes, the fitter virus will eventually outpace the other ones. So it could be a more transmissible one or one that replicates quicker, or one that can evade immune destruction...there’s various reasons why one variant might predominate over another (including how much of it is introduced into a population in the first place). 

[steviewevie]

m

7 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Nah they are going to lift restrictions before that once the vulnerable have had the vaccinations.

yes, but will be gradual...tiers and stuff...probably starting as soon as March.

[xxialac]

21 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Nah they are going to lift restrictions before that once the vulnerable have had the vaccinations.

First or second doses?

My concern is that they won't be able to get everyone their second doses via the (already extended) 12 week timeline. This seems inevitable, given just how many need to have the second dose now as a result of allowing these numbers to build up.

They'll be faced with a choice of having to cancel people's first doses or having a lot of people in the most vulnerable category quite rightly upset that they're not getting their second dose after 12 weeks, let alone the 3 weeks that was the timeline used in trials to measure effectiveness. 

Feels like with every passing week, especially beyond 12, it would feel like a big gamble to have so many people without their second dose and not fully protected.

Edited January 17, 2021 by xxialac

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, xxialac said:

First or second doses?

My concern is that they won't be able to get everyone their second doses via the (already extended) 12 week timeline. This seems inevitable, given just how many need to have the second dose now as a result of allowing these numbers to build up.

They'll be faced with a choice of having to cancel people's first doses or having a lot of people in the most vulnerable category quite rightly upset that not getting their second dose after 12 weeks, let alone the 3 weeks that was the timeline used in trials to measure effectiveness. 

Feels like with every passing week, especially beyond 12, it would feel like a big gamble to have so many people without their second dose and not fully protected.

hopefully the overlap between 1st and 2nd doses will be covered via a higher number of vaccinations each day.

Remember, the limit on vaccinations now is because of vaccine supplies and not the number of needles which can be stuck in arms. The vaccine supply should ramp up as the months go by.

[zahidf]

2 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

hopefully the overlap between 1st and 2nd doses will be covered via a higher number of vaccinations each day.

Remember, the limit on vaccinations now is because of vaccine supplies and not the number of needles which can be stuck in arms. The vaccine supply should ramp up as the months go by.

Yup. And we will get moderna by April and J and J potentially sooner, which cover some nee first doses

[Rex2]

@Toilet Duck I've just had my first dose of the Pfizer jab a couple of days ago, having no idea about the government's extended 12 week plan for the second dose. Do you foresee any efficacy or safety concerns with this given that the technology is different to the Oxford jab? 

[zahidf]

6 minutes ago, xxialac said:

First or second doses?

My concern is that they won't be able to get everyone their second doses via the (already extended) 12 week timeline. This seems inevitable, given just how many need to have the second dose now as a result of allowing these numbers to build up.

They'll be faced with a choice of having to cancel people's first doses or having a lot of people in the most vulnerable category quite rightly upset that not getting their second dose after 12 weeks, let alone the 3 weeks that was the timeline used in trials to measure effectiveness. 

Feels like with every passing week, especially beyond 12, it would feel like a big gamble to have so many people without their second dose and not fully protected.

We should know in a few weeks how much protection one dose gives. If it give protection and cuts transmission, that would be a factor in less cases and more opening up

[Toilet Duck]

1 minute ago, Rex2 said:

@Toilet Duck I've just had my first dose of the Pfizer jab a couple of days ago, having no idea about the government's extended 12 week plan for the second dose. Do you foresee any efficacy or safety concerns with this given that the technology is different to the Oxford jab? 

Howdy, it elicits pretty much the same immune response as the OX/AZ one (both just use different ways of delivering the same spike protein). There isn’t much data past 42 days for the Pfizer jab, but it’s an educated guess based on what’s been observed with longer gaps. Safety really shouldn’t be an issue (in the trials, 2nd doses generally had fewer side effects anyway, though anecdotally some are saying they had more adverse reaction after the 2nd dose, but I guess that’s why we do trials!). Efficacy is better after the 2nd dose, but unlikely to be impacted by the delay...just assume you are not fully protected (as fully as you could be) until about a week or so after you get the booster!

[xxialac]

3 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Howdy, it elicits pretty much the same immune response as the OX/AZ one (both just use different ways of delivering the same spike protein). There isn’t much data past 42 days for the Pfizer jab, but it’s an educated guess based on what’s been observed with longer gaps. Safety really shouldn’t be an issue (in the trials, 2nd doses generally had fewer side effects anyway, though anecdotally some are saying they had more adverse reaction after the 2nd dose, but I guess that’s why we do trials!). Efficacy is better after the 2nd dose, but unlikely to be impacted by the delay...just assume you are not fully protected (as fully as you could be) until about a week or so after you get the booster!

As always, incredibly helpful.