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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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1 minute ago, Chawk said:

Does anyone know if there's daily vaccinations statistics by region? I found weekly by region (England) but not daily

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare#card-people_who_have_received_vaccinations_by_report_date_daily

It's on that link under - People who have received vaccinations, by report date (daily)

Screenshot 2021-01-15 at 17.38.58.png

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39 minutes ago, fraybentos1 said:

In the trials, 100% of serious illness was avoided from just one dose. Two doses is obv important for full effect and long term efficacy but one dose should have an impact on deaths and hospitalisations by late Jan and then more and more from there.

But they have to do the second dose within 12 weeks. So after 10 weeks, we're going to see people going back for their second dose, which will see first doses potentially drop off hugely (depending on how much we can ramp up). It's very much now "how many can we vaccinate in 10 weeks" as when we get to that figure it'll be going up a lot slower. Ideally we want all the vulnerable done by that point I guess.

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9 minutes ago, DeanoL said:

But they have to do the second dose within 12 weeks. So after 10 weeks, we're going to see people going back for their second dose, which will see first doses potentially drop off hugely (depending on how much we can ramp up). It's very much now "how many can we vaccinate in 10 weeks" as when we get to that figure it'll be going up a lot slower. Ideally we want all the vulnerable done by that point I guess.

Yeah for sure, which is why I hope they can ramp up to 500k a day which was mentioned. 
 

Most important is the over 70s who could be done before many second doses need to be given out at this rate. 

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53 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

When they test for infection can they determine from each test what the variant is, and if so do they? Or do they just take a sample for this?

Depends on the variant. The UK one makes one part of the PCR test fail and this can be used as a proxy to identify it. The others need to be sequenced which happens for a small percentage of them, but enough to get an idea of how a particular variant is spreading in the community. 

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Re the second dose, we’ve gradually be ramping up vaccines and hopefully will continue to do so. IIRC from when we started in December it took maybe 10 days to hit a million? Capacity then went up when Oxford came on line, but is still steadily going up. Until we got peak vaccinations (which we haven’t yet) then the second dose won’t be an immediate issue.

12 weeks from the first Pfizer vaccines we’ll still have tons of vaccines spare because we weren’t vaccinating 500k a week let alone day.

The issue will only really come when we hit 12 weeks on from peak capacity, if we can vaccinate nearly 4m a week we can still potentially vaccinate 2m first doses and 2m second doses every week.

Edited by Deaf Nobby Burton
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4 hours ago, H.M.V said:

Train station is about a half hour walk but a couple of minutes to ours in a taxi. But for you my lovely I'd come and pick you up. 

Plenty of walks around without the need for a car. We get plenty of guests with no car. Can get one of the lake cruises up to Ambleside for more walks and bimbling. 

We're also adult only so don't hike prices in the kids holidays. 😉

 

 

 

Ah thank you! That's very sweet of you. Hope you're well, been a while!

I actually did have a look at the website earlier and it's proper posh looking! Very nice. Maybe one day...

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By my calculations if we continue vaccinating 1st doses at today's numbers (316.694) until the 12 weeks mark (22nd March) then we would have vaccinated 23 million people (over a third of the population).  Then halving the doses (so 155k for 1st doses and 155k for second doses) we get the 35million people (over half the population) by 11th June (10 days prior to Glastonbury opening it's gates).

 

 

 
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19 minutes ago, ShakeyCrash said:

By my calculations if we continue vaccinating 1st doses at today's numbers (316.694) until the 12 weeks mark (22nd March) then we would have vaccinated 23 million people (over a third of the population).  Then halving the doses (so 155k for 1st doses and 155k for second doses) we get the 35million people (over half the population) by 11th June (10 days prior to Glastonbury opening it's gates).

 

 

 

yep, but problem is Glastonbury will have to make a decision whether to go ahead or not in a month or two when there will still be a lot of uncertainty.

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37 minutes ago, ShakeyCrash said:

By my calculations if we continue vaccinating 1st doses at today's numbers (316.694) until the 12 weeks mark (22nd March) then we would have vaccinated 23 million people (over a third of the population).  Then halving the doses (so 155k for 1st doses and 155k for second doses) we get the 35million people (over half the population) by 11th June (10 days prior to Glastonbury opening it's gates).

 

 

 

Daily numbers look like they're only going to go up currently so that could be a conservative estimate. Sounds promising though!

 

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49 minutes ago, ShakeyCrash said:

By my calculations if we continue vaccinating 1st doses at today's numbers (316.694) until the 12 weeks mark (22nd March) then we would have vaccinated 23 million people (over a third of the population).  Then halving the doses (so 155k for 1st doses and 155k for second doses) we get the 35million people (over half the population) by 11th June (10 days prior to Glastonbury opening it's gates).

 

 

 

But you cant half the amount to 155k because you have 316000 each day needing their 2nd dose from the first 12 week’s. it’s almost a spiral were we need ever increasing vaccines.

 

or in 12 weeks we have very few vaccines to give first dose, and that remains for the next 12 weeks until this first lot are done. Then suddenly in 24 weeks we have a LOAD of vaccines and very few people on their 2nd dose.

Mind blown.

Edited by mikegday
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5 minutes ago, mikegday said:

But you cant half the amount to 155k because you have 316000 each day needing their 2nd dose from the first 12 week’s. it’s almost a spiral were we need ever increasing vaccines.

 

or in 12 weeks we have very few vaccines to give first dose, and that remains for the next 12 weeks until this first lot are done. Then suddenly in 24 weeks we have a LOAD of vaccines and very few people on their 2nd dose.

Mind blown.

Vaccine-ception.

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6 minutes ago, parsonjack said:

What a dick thing to be smug about.  We've hardly nailed this sucker at every turn have we?

This kind of attitude is led by the government making it a competition. Did you see their sponsored tweets yesterday boasting how we’ve vaccinated more than four major European countries combined?

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5 minutes ago, Ryan1984 said:

This kind of attitude is led by the government making it a competition. Did you see their sponsored tweets yesterday boasting how we’ve vaccinated more than four major European countries combined?

I guess when you are heading for 100,000 people dying on your watch you need to try the “squirrel!” approach. 
 

edit: though you guys are doing really well on the vaccine roll out!

Edited by Toilet Duck
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1 minute ago, Toilet Duck said:

I guess when you are heading for 100,000 people dying on your watch you need to try the “squirrel!” approach. 
 

edit: though you guys are doing really well on the vaccine roll out!

yeah, I'm all for congratulating ourselves when we get things right but smirking at others during this is just shit. It's a global problem, and we really need to stop being a stupid bunch of little englander knobheads.

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15 minutes ago, Ryan1984 said:

This kind of attitude is led by the government making it a competition. Did you see their sponsored tweets yesterday boasting how we’ve vaccinated more than four major European countries combined?

Funny how they aren't telling us now we have to wait till the end before we make comparisons to other countries...

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