When will this shit end?

[Ozanne]

9 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

Seeing lots of speculation in papers they are going to make the lockdown stricter due to “lack of compliance”.

In my opinion the question which really needs to be answered here is why did it take them so long to lock down? Why did they leave it so late? Why send 3 million children back to primary schools for one day which was unnecessary household mixing just to u-turn in the evening. None of it makes any sense. And once again the public are being blamed and told we will be made to undergo stricter rules because we aren’t following the rules. 

I just wish the government stepped up and took responsibility for once. Ok, so yes some of the public haven’t been great with nye parties and what not but the numbers being so high in this instance- the overwhelmed hospitals and ridiculous death toll we are seeing right now. That’s on the government. And it starts with them putting London and SE in tier 2 even though numbers were rising and not falling...

It’s been the Tories MO for years, blame others and convince the masses that those others are the ones that’s at fault when it’s been the Tories all along. The Lib Dem’s, the EU, Corbyn, Remainers etc it’s also someone else’s fault. 

[stuartbert two hats]

I've posted a few days' figures here, because I'm seeing a very encouraging trend. Note I've been focusing on Stockport numbers, but I think other boroughs are similar.

Thursday to Friday has been par for the course in this spike - a huge daily from 396 - 424. Then it starts to suddenly slow and reverse.

Friday 424 (396) +28

Saturday 428 (424) +4

Sunday 417 (428) -9

 

Now, before you point at weekend reporting, last weekend we had

Fri 239 (238) +1

Sat 266 (239) +27

Sun 299 (266) +39

 

So yeah, cases are most definitely not rising as fast as last weekend. Will we see boroughs in Manchester show sustained weekday on day decreases soon? I'm hopeful we will, but I'm not holding any hopes for tomorrow, but soon. Maybe within the next 7 days we might even see one of those glorious green down arrows for week on week decreases in a borough.

Don't give up hope folks, stay indoors, wear a mask etc, but I'm increasingly confident that this lockdown, with all its flaws in execution and compliance is enough to get R under 1.

Edit, sorry for the Thursday being in the wrong place, I'm on my phone and I'm not redoing it  🙃

 

Edited January 10, 2021 by stuartbert two hats

[stuartbert two hats]

And it's across the country:

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/coronavirus-infection-rates-greater-manchester-19599413

[Leyrulion]

1 hour ago, stuartbert two hats said:

And it's across the country:

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/coronavirus-infection-rates-greater-manchester-19599413

Hope!!

[chestwig]

On 1/9/2021 at 11:11 PM, Ryan1984 said:

Yes, because Covid is like an MOT?

That's actually when mine is due. Surely a sign?

[Leyrulion]

After reading some articles about policies to open up society after the vulnerable have been vaccinated and I think that could be quite a lot slower then I'd thought it would. 

Hospitalisations amongst under 65's are significantly lower then the older groups but they're not zero. There's also a lot more of us, about 32 million aged 18-65. 

Current hospital rate is 260 per 100k for 18-64. Even with the vulnerable vaccinated 18-64's could still pose a significant hospital burden.

If you remove restrictions the total % of people infected at one time will increase. That's currently 2% ( 1 in 50) but if there were no mitigation if it shot up to say 10% of people (number arbitrarily chosen) aged 18-64 at a rate of 260 hospitalisations per 100k that would equate to about 8,300 people in hospital, or the level of hospitalisation seen about a week before lockdown #2.

Someone check my maths please but it's currently but a dampner on my thoughts that we'd have significantly fewer onerous restrictions by Easter.

Edited January 11, 2021 by Leyrulion

[JoeyT]

A rule saying you are only allowed to leave home once a week being thought about apparently...

F**king hell this is an absolute joke isn’t it?!

The harder / longer you squeeze the more people will push back.

[zahidf]

9 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

A rule saying you are only allowed to leave home once a week being thought about apparently...

F**king hell this is an absolute joke isn’t it?!

The harder / longer you squeeze the more people will push back.

Yeah can't see that being enforceable. 

[HydraD]

4 hours ago, Leyrulion said:

After reading some articles about policies to open up society after the vulnerable have been vaccinated and I think that could be quite a lot slower then I'd thought it would. 

Hospitalisations amongst under 65's are significantly lower then the older groups but they're not zero. There's also a lot more of us, about 32 million aged 18-65. 

Current hospital rate is 260 per 100k for 18-64. Even with the vulnerable vaccinated 18-64's could still pose a significant hospital burden.

If you remove restrictions the total % of people infected at one time will increase. That's currently 2% ( 1 in 50) but if there were no mitigation if it shot up to say 10% of people (number arbitrarily chosen) aged 18-64 at a rate of 260 hospitalisations per 100k that would equate to about 8,300 people in hospital, or the level of hospitalisation seen about a week before lockdown #2.

Someone check my maths please but it's currently but a dampner on my thoughts that we'd have significantly fewer onerous restrictions by Easter.

Phase 1 of the vaccine includes people in the 18-64 age group that have serious underlying health conditions. I would have thought/hoped that that would cut down on the hospitalisation rate for that age group drastically.

[MEGABOWL]

17 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

A rule saying you are only allowed to leave home once a week being thought about apparently...

F**king hell this is an absolute joke isn’t it?!

The harder / longer you squeeze the more people will push back.

Unenforceable control freakery. Yet they’ll be people cheering for it-I never realised how right wing a Country this is. 

[zahidf]

5 minutes ago, MEGABOWL said:

Unenforceable control freakery. Yet they’ll be people cheering for it-I never realised how right wing a Country this is. 

They'll cheer for it and happily ignore it themselves.

[Ozanne]

25 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

A rule saying you are only allowed to leave home once a week being thought about apparently...

F**king hell this is an absolute joke isn’t it?!

The harder / longer you squeeze the more people will push back.

Have a look at the last page which says compliance is up on this lockdown compared to lockdown 2.

Do you have a source for this? Otherwise let’s not get people worried over restrictions that might not happen. 

[JoeyT]

6 minutes ago, MEGABOWL said:

Unenforceable control freakery. Yet they’ll be people cheering for it-I never realised how right wing a Country this is. 

It’s bonkers.

It genuinely makes me sad.

[Ryan1984]

All about public compliance on the news this morning - although very little about closing down the many ‘Covid-secure workplaces’ that remain open even where people can wfh.

Whitty doing a Q and A now.

[Chapple12345]

39 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

A rule saying you are only allowed to leave home once a week being thought about apparently...

F**king hell this is an absolute joke isn’t it?!

The harder / longer you squeeze the more people will push back.

Hugely unenforceable and unpractical too, what if you had a medical need but had already left the house for something like shopping? If they did there would have to be guidance which would be undoubtedly flouted and therefore unenforceable  

[steviewevie]

54 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

A rule saying you are only allowed to leave home once a week being thought about apparently...

F**king hell this is an absolute joke isn’t it?!

The harder / longer you squeeze the more people will push back.

we will literally kill each other in this house if that happens (it won't).

Edited January 11, 2021 by steviewevie

[steviewevie]

Europe's slow start: How many people have had the Covid vaccine?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-55575756

[steviewevie]

Hoping my Mum will get an invite call for her vaccine this week.

[squirrelarmy]

My teacher friend who was forced to go into work for that one day after new year has tested positive. 
 

Nicely done Boris. 

[steviewevie]

 

[Ozanne]

25 minutes ago, Chapple12345 said:

Hugely unenforceable and unpractical too, what if you had a medical need but had already left the house for something like shopping? If they did there would have to be guidance which would be undoubtedly flouted and therefore unenforceable  

Why is why we need to see a source of where this has come from. It most likely won’t happen and posting it here is likely to worry people even more for no reason.

I can pretty safely say they won’t bring this in, the furthest they would likely go imo is limiting exercise to an hour a day. 

[Zoo Music Girl]

9 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Hoping my Mum will get an invite call for her vaccine this week.

Me too! Surely she must soon with some areas moving down the age groups already?

[JoeyT]

3 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Why is why we need to see a source of where this has come from. It most likely won’t happen and posting it here is likely to worry people even more for no reason.

I can pretty safely say they won’t bring this in, the furthest they would likely go imo is limiting exercise to an hour a day. 

From the Mail:

Even limiting exercising to an hour is a massive no no for myself and I’m sure many many people.

It defies logic.

Target messaging around keeping distance etc. rather than swipe away our one remaining freedom.

It only serves to make people even more frustrated and likely to break rules even more.

 

[Ozanne]

1 minute ago, JoeyT said:

From the Mail:

Even limiting exercising to an hour is a massive no no for myself and I’m sure many many people.

It defies logic.

Target messaging around keeping distance etc. rather than swipe away our one remaining freedom.

It only serves to make people even more frustrated and likely to break rules even more.

 

I don’t mean to sound patronising but come on that’s from the Daily Mail. How much rubbish has that paper spewed that’s never happened, they are printing that to get people riled up against the current restrictions. Let’s not start believing the Daily Mail for these things.

Also it’s a bit hyperbolic to say ‘our one remaining freedom’, I would suggest that people living under oppressive regimes would very much like our way of life even the current one. 

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

From the Mail:

Even limiting exercising to an hour is a massive no no for myself and I’m sure many many people.

It defies logic.

Target messaging around keeping distance etc. rather than swipe away our one remaining freedom.

It only serves to make people even more frustrated and likely to break rules even more.

 

it really would be like a winter hibernation if only allowed out once a week. Awesome.