When will this shit end?

[Reckoner]

4 hours ago, fraybentos1 said:

You think it will take most of the population being vaccinated to see deaths and hospital rates going down? That makes no sense.

Nearly all hospital admissions come from over 60s. 

Taken from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/download

65/35 split for 65 and over (England Only). It will make a massive difference but you still have 85000 64's and under admitted to hospital since March 19. Not insignificant numbers and to me an indication that there needs to be a solid dent in the vaccination numbers of the groups below (50+ maybe) before you reach that tipping point  (albeit loosening restrictions is scalable and you can gradually reintroduce things as numbers drop)

(edit: 85k across the pandemic i mean, not currently)

Edited January 6, 2021 by Gregfc15
clarification

[The other Bellboy]

7 hours ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Agreed. I suspect that once they've managed to vaccinate most of their populations, the zero covid countries will loosen their strong restrictions and accept a low level of death every year.

We have started to discuss what we will do in a few months time when we do have the option of taking the vaccine, there's no way they will want to keep the borders closed in the way they are now so at some point they will be opened up in some way. They have already put in place a requirement for Kiwi's coming home from the UK or USA to have proof of a negative test before boarding the plane and then they still have to do the the isolation period. So we think it will soon be the case that proof of vaccination and negative test will be enough for non Kiwi's to travel here so by then we will certainly want to have had our jabs. Think the process will start sometime in March for our jabs so i can see the borders being a lot more open in time for Winter. I'm pretty certain we will be going for vaccination for all of the family but no idea quite how the priorities will be sorted.

[mcshed]

16 hours ago, st dan said:

On a similar note, can’t for the life of me understand how WH Smith are still standing, unless having the Post Office in their stores is the only thing keeping them afloat?

Railway stations and airports are the key,  those sites are worth a fortune.

[Ozanne]

6 hours ago, xxialac said:

The context of the thread of the conversation focused on the government.  And in any case the NHS and PHE have a UK remit only

I don't understand the endless IFs. Nothing about the last 9 months points to a series of successes to come.

And the UK doesn't do altruism any more. We literally slashed our aid budget only a month ago and Patel spends her time trying to deport refugees and undermine human rights. 'Charity begins at home' is the mantra.

 

I think we have to caveat every post where we criticise the UK government by saying that whilst they have made mistakes no other country has handled this perfectly, just so the government don’t seem as bad. Even when presenting overwhelming evidence on their failings.

Oh we also have to hypothetically point out no one else could’ve done better. 

[MrBarry465]

2 hours ago, Gregfc15 said:

Taken from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/download

65/35 split for 65 and over (England Only). It will make a massive difference but you still have 85000 64's and under admitted to hospital since March 19. Not insignificant numbers and to me an indication that there needs to be a solid dent in the vaccination numbers of the groups below (50+ maybe) before you reach that tipping point  (albeit loosening restrictions is scalable and you can gradually reintroduce things as numbers drop)

(edit: 85k across the pandemic i mean, not currently)

Yes 100% 

Doesn't need to be an on or off button with the restrictions, lets get vaccines out and see the numbers dropping nicely and do it in phases.

There's no need to rush and place uneeded stress on medical industry. We are on the path out of it.

Edited January 6, 2021 by MrBarry465

[MrBarry465]

With the democrats looking like they might have one the senate, this might be a wind of change of politics worldwide away from conservative nonsense. America has the potential to be dominated by democrats for decades now.

[Lycra]

2 hours ago, Gregfc15 said:

Taken from https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/download

65/35 split for 65 and over (England Only). It will make a massive difference but you still have 85000 64's and under admitted to hospital since March 19. Not insignificant numbers and to me an indication that there needs to be a solid dent in the vaccination numbers of the groups below (50+ maybe) before you reach that tipping point  (albeit loosening restrictions is scalable and you can gradually reintroduce things as numbers drop)

(edit: 85k across the pandemic i mean, not currently)

Historically the over 65s have been worst hit by covid and provided the majority of hospitalizations, however this is changing. As the new variant spreads significant numbers of working age people are being hospitalised. Attached below is the covid bed occupancy for covid patients Homerton Hospital, Hackney 29 Dec 2020. It records 81 cases of working age v 87 for the over 65s

 

 

[Homer]

7 hours ago, xxialac said:

In other news Kanye West and Kim Kardashian are getting divorced. Suspect they fell out over their views on the UK government's response to Covid.

That hologram of her dad must be upset - he was bang into Kanye.

[Ryan1984]

2 hours ago, mcshed said:

Railway stations and airports are the key,  those sites are worth a fortune.

The airport ones especially. I worked with someone who was at the head office and they said you wouldn’t believe how high the figures are.

On another note, the lesser-spotted vaccine minister Zahawi has appeared on BBC News!

[Ryan1984]

 

[steviewevie]

8 hours ago, efcfanwirral said:

The not delivering on Sundays and after lunch thing is ridiculous and exactly what I expected. We have working hours and working days and we just stick to them. Its ridiculous and old fashioned

it could be telegraph being briefed by friends in govt getting ready for the blame game....

[JoeyT]

Got to say Tony Blair the talks with much sense and clarity.

Much better than the current govt.

[Ozanne]

2 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

it could be telegraph being briefed by friends in govt getting ready for the blame game....

That doesn’t sound like our government...

[Mouseboy11]

9 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

Got to say Tony Blair the talks with much sense and clarity.

Much better than the current govt.

Shame he's a war criminal.

[steviewevie]

10 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

Got to say Tony Blair the talks with much sense and clarity.

Much better than the current govt.

yeah, and actually much better than Starmer...but as mentioned above, shame about Iraq.

[Copperface]

7 hours ago, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

 

Don't forget PHE and the NHS aren't the government. 

PHE actually is. It was created by Hunt and taken away from the NHS to ensure direct accountability and reporting to the Health Secretary, and run directly by civil servants. 

They've now decided that that don't like being that accountable, so are planning to replace it with NIHP with, naturally, another political appointee (the blessed Dido) at the helm.

[Ozanne]

 

[Reckoner]

20 minutes ago, Lycra said:

Historically the over 65s have been worst hit by covid and provided the majority of hospitalizations, however this is changing. As the new variant spreads significant numbers of working age people are being hospitalised. Attached below is the covid bed occupancy for covid patients Homerton Hospital, Hackney 29 Dec 2020. It records 81 cases of working age v 87 for the over 65s

 

 

Cheers. It was you posting this the other day that sent me digging into the data.

Still playing around, but December looked to be the first month since April where the case increase percentage in the under 64's outpaced the over 64's which is what above shows as well as backs up the first hand horror story's that you have passed on. 

To expand my original point, it was more about trying to present some data in response to the post above that stated it ‘predominantly effects over 60’s”

It obviously does as a risk to an overall age group and especially in regard to risk of death, but in terms of trying to work out “when will this shit end?” I think that that the rate per 100k that is published like the bottom of this post possibly lulls people into that thinking. There was still another 20k worth of admissions in December of under 64 year olds. Rate per 100k is not overly relevant when you are talking about X amount of capacity that is dwindling. 

I guess to Tl;Dr is that tipping point for return to the new normal is not going to be at the end of vaccination of +65's if the under 64's are being admitted in large numbers, as while the vaccine may take care of deaths, it won't have put a sufficient dent in cases and thus hospitalizations. 

 

 

[JoeyT]

12 minutes ago, Mouseboy11 said:

Shame he's a war criminal.

Is Boris much better?

Thousands of deaths as a consequence of the decisions he has (hasn’t perhaps more apt) taken.

[Mouseboy11]

1 minute ago, JoeyT said:

Is Boris much better?

Thousands of deaths as a consequence of the decisions he has (hasn’t perhaps more apt) taken.

Definitely not, they are both utter pricks!

[Copperface]

7 hours ago, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

 

The it's are because of the understandable doubts around our ability to deliver 2millon jabs a week - because we aren't doing it now. Two days in.

We're a month into this programme, not two days. They knew approval for AZ was coming months before and still didn't put the infrastructure fully in place and get to a state of readiness to fire the starting gun within one or two days of that approval being given.

All of the major hub sites and mass vac sites are known but most are still incomplete and staff not in place. They won't be at full tilt for some weeks yet apparently. No idea what all this crap is about not revealing the site locations. They've already been published.

We were also fed a line that we would never be short of vaccine as we were assured that millions of doses were being manufactured in advance of approval, in a gamble designed to ensure that supply would not be the bottleneck. That went well....

Lastly, they've moved the goalposts completely with the lengthened period between doses, which is necessary precisely because they have screwed up the response and over promised.  While it is a  public health decision which imo has to to be taken in the circumstances - rather get more people less protected in a shorter time, than fewer people more protected over a longer period - and while the decision is reluctantly accepted by the govts medical advisors, the companies themselves have not said they approve. 

The government response, on a variety of levels has not been characterised by a few understandable mistakes, but by consistent ignorance, delay, incompetence and indecision driven by a confused and unworkable populist ideological outlook.

 

[steviewevie]

 

[xxialac]

1 minute ago, Copperface said:

We're a month into this programme, not two days. They knew approval for AZ was coming months before and still didn't put the infrastructure fully in place and get to a state of readiness to fire the starting gun within one or two days of that approval being given.

All of the major hub sites and mass vac sites are known but most are still incomplete and staff not in place. They won't be at full tilt for some weeks yet apparently. No idea what all this crap is about not revealing the site locations. They've already been published.

We were also fed a line that we would never be short of vaccine as we were assured that millions of doses were being manufactured in advance of approval, in a gamble designed to ensure that supply would not be the bottleneck. That went well....

Lastly, they've moved the goalposts completely with the lengthened period between doses, which is necessary precisely because they have screwed up the response and over promised.  While it is a  public health decision which imo has to to be taken in the circumstances - rather get more people less protected in a shorter time, than fewer people more protected over a longer period - and while the decision is reluctantly accepted by the govts medical advisors, the companies themselves have not said they approve. 

The government response, on a variety of levels has not been characterised by a few understandable mistakes, but by consistent ignorance, delay, incompetence and indecision driven by a confused and unworkable populist ideological outlook.

 

Yes, yes and yes to all of this.

[Fuzzy Afro]

Telegraph reporting what I mentioned last week about the nightingales potentially being used for those rejected by triage 

[gigpusher]

1 hour ago, Homer said:

That hologram of her dad must be upset - he was bang into Kanye.

In other years that would by far have been the weirdest thing that happened but 2020 😄