Jump to content

When will this shit end?

Chrisp1986

By Chrisp1986,
in Chat

 Share

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 94.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

  • steviewevie

    10647

  • zahidf

    6871

  • Crazyfool01

    6413

  • Ozanne

    7531

Popular Days

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Days

Popular Posts

jparx
jparx

I think on a music festival message board it’s a legitimate question to ask. It doesn’t suggest the OP doesn’t give a shit about anything else. Of course there are much bigger things to be worrie

Toilet Duck
Toilet Duck

So...OX/AZ, blood clots, suspension of vaccinations, politics, vaccine hesitancy, convoluted data, PR problems, Brexit, EU procurement naivety, poor logistics, national identity...there’s an awful lot

Lycra
Lycra

A while since I/we posted because just like everyone else we get fed up of this shit. So just like to say..... For the first time since last March we are free of covid patients 😊

Posted Images

5co77ie Enthusiast

5co77ie

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, Andre91 said:

School update Day 2: 

All staff in once again today. The school day ends in 45 minutes and we have had zero word from SMT on anything. We are as in the dark as we were yesterday. 

People are pissed. 

show as many of your colleagues this article - plus your headteacher:

 

https://www.tes.com/news/exclusive-teacher-covid-rates-333-above-average?fbclid=IwAR2tXs5ooYiGKg0ZJIVE-M6vKYLC4wpHU84kTJuk_Lq4p7_j0B-Tn_4A7m8

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Losing my hair Experienced

Losing my hair

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Not just people: the govt want restrictions done with asap and dont really care about the deaths passed a certain level

It's a basic risk assessment.

Hazard = SARS-CoV-2

Risk = Likelihood of contracting Covid-19 after becoming infected with SARS-CoV-2 x Severity of contracting Covid-19

At the moment both Likelihood and Severity are high for a large part of the population and so appropriate control measures are needed to control the Likelihood thus reducing the risk.

Once the most vulnerable become vaccinated then the Severity will reduce as those people contracting Covid-19 will not suffer such severe symptoms which will reduce the risk.

At the moment we don't know whether vaccinating people will reduce the Likelihood half of the equation but as long as one half of the equation is reduced then the current control measures can be reduced.

Simplified it's like this:

No control measures L = 6 x S = 6 Risk = 36

Current control measures L = 2 x S = 6 Risk = 12

Current control measures + vaccination L = 2 x S = 2 Risk = 4

Relaxed control measures + vaccination L = 4 x S =2 Risk = 8

The discussion to be had is about the acceptable level of risk not just about the numbers dying. 

  • Upvote 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ozanne Grand Master

Ozanne

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Gilgamesh69 said:

So what have I missed? I can never keep up with this thread.

How long is this new lockdown? I've heard both  til mid feb and march

Johnson has said at least till mid February but Gove has said it’ll likely be till March. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Toilet Duck Proficient

Toilet Duck

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Study on South African and Cockney Covid

I await @Toilet Duck considered opinion but this seems to say the Kent Covid should be fine with vaccines, SA may not be but will just reduced effectiveness rather than totally escape and will take a few years 

 

Will have a look and report back! In a meeting at the mo...

Link to comment
Share on other sites
tigger123 Rising Star

tigger123

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Gilgamesh69 said:

So what have I missed? I can never keep up with this thread.

How long is this new lockdown? I've heard both  til mid feb and march

Lockdown technically until mid Feb for now, but will most likely last longer into March according to Gove 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Crazyfool01 Grand Master

Crazyfool01

Posted
Posted

what are peoples perceptions on how this lockdown is compared with other restrictions we have had previously ....? it sees like it is quieter than tier 4 ..... but nothing like as quiet as the National lockdown in March .... hopefully Boris has some very strong words in tonights press conference  and people take notice .... a few police pull overs of essential journeys would definately help too ..... from a perception point of view ... its amazing how word of mouth and social media talk get a message out ......

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Avalon_Fields Veteran

Avalon_Fields

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, Losing my hair said:

 

The discussion to be had is about the acceptable level of risk not just about the numbers dying. 

That's the interesting point for me. It's really a political judgment.

There's unlikely to be a definite point when it's clearly best to end restrictions so I suspect they'll just gradually reduce rules, keeping hands:face:space for the remainder of 2021 perhaps.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Avalon_Fields Veteran

Avalon_Fields

Posted
Posted

Amazingly, there's been 500,000 infections just in US prisons!

 

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/01/04/world/covid-19-coronavirus?utm_medium=email&utm_source=CampaignMonitor_Editorial&utm_campaign=LNCH 20210105 House Ads SM+CID_354431ae8c1697c121ab3998ace913d1#virus-cases-in-us-jails-and-prisons-surpass-500000

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Toilet Duck Proficient

Toilet Duck

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, zahidf said:

Study on South African and Cockney Covid

I await @Toilet Duck considered opinion but this seems to say the Kent Covid should be fine with vaccines, SA may not be but will just reduced effectiveness rather than totally escape and will take a few years 

 

So, this is a complicated one and it's complicated because our immune response to SARS-CoV-2 (and other things of course) is complicated and very variable! Sometimes the E484K mutation reduced neutralising activity by about 10 fold, other times it didn't do much at all (and it also varied in the same patient when serum from different time points was used). How well lab measured decreases or increases in neutralising activity translate into different outcomes for patients is entirely unknown, but they do observe various things that could start to help us understand how the immune response to this virus evolves after infection (some patients start to develop a broader antibody response, in others it narrows....what this means in terms of reinfection etc, we don't know...will vaccination lead to the same diversity in immune responses? again, we don't know). What it suggests to me is that we should keep an eye on variants that have the E484K mutation, but in some of the patients they looked at, the mutation had no impact at all on neutralising activity (presumably because other antibodies were able to neutralise the virus). Its also important to note that while neutralising antibodies are important, binding antibodies that direct other parts of our immune system to the virus also play a role in our immune response to it, so there's still a lot more to unravel (and this is complex to study in the lab). Booster shots that massively increase the neutralising antibody titers well above those observed in convalescing COVID patients may also mean that even an order of magnitude decrease in neutralising activity has little clinical impact (and indeed, waiting a bit longer after the initial shot in the case of the Oxford vaccine led to a 3 fold increase in neutralising antibody titers even before the boost was given). So...raises as many questions as it answers, but a good idea to keep an eye on what these variants are doing. 

Edited by Toilet Duck
typos!
  • Upvote 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
zahidf Grand Master

zahidf

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

So, this is a complicated one and it's complicated because our immune response to SARS-CoV-2 (and other things of course) is complicated and very variable! Sometimes the E484K mutation reduced neutralising activity by about 10 fold, other times it didn't do much at all (and it also varied in the same patient when serum from different time points was used). How well lab measured decreases or increases in neutralising activity translate into different outcomes for patients is entirely unknown, but they do observe various things that could start to help us understand how the immune response to this virus evolves after infection (some patients start to develop a broader antibody response, in others it narrows....what this means in terms of reinfection etc, we don't know...will vaccination lead to the same diversity in immune responses? again, we don't know). What it suggests to me is that we should keep an eye on variants that have the E484K mutation, but in some of the patients they looked at, the mutation had no impact at all on neutralising activity (presumably because other antibodies were able to neutralise the virus). Its also important to note that while neutralising antibodies are important, binding antibodies that direct other parts of our immune system to the virus also play a role in our immune response to it, so there's still a lot more to unravel (and tis is complex to study in the lab). Booster shots that massively increase the neutralising antibody titers well above those observed in convalescing COVID patients may also mean that even an order of magnitude decrease in neutralising activity has little clinical impact (and indeed, waiting a bit longer after the initial shot in the case of the Oxford vaccine led to a 3 fold increase in neutralising antibody titers even before the boost was given). So...raises as many questions as it answers, but a good idea to keep an eye on what these variants are doing. 

Cool thanks for that! You make it a bit easier to understand 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...