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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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1 minute ago, Mr.Tease said:

I don't see how they could determine its 70% more transmittable this quickly (it might be spreading faster but that doesn't mean its due to the virus makeup itself)? 

Saw something that said it was identified in September so is that enough time?

I do agree though that the timing seems quite useful.

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1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

Notice he referred to the November to December lockdown as autumn measures? That seemed deliberate, lockdown 1 level restrictions coming again soon at some time.

Not really, it's just a word that focus groups badly. They've always been very careful not to call anything other than that first one 'lockdown' - it's only the media and social media that refers to every single tier or restriction as a lockdown.

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9 minutes ago, st dan said:

Not a massive conspiracy nut - but this new variant which is a whopping 70% more transmittable is very convenient timing isn’t it?
It certainly gives some much needed justification behind the new restrictions, and they definitely needed something to hide behind. 

I don't know...I actually think there is no conspiracy here.

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24 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

This is setting us up for the National lockdown end of Dec isn't it ..... using the reasoning  that the new variant has got out and is spreading elsewhere ? Most pressing today was the SE ....but there is no way it won't happen now elsewhere is there ? 

100 percent agree with you.

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Anyone who actually believes in some type of conspiracy that covers measures within the UK is someone who has severely overestimated the willingness to cooperate in such a scheme between Bozo, Sturgeon and Drakeford. They would not be in agreement unless they had to be.

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9 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

surely they should make use of all the furloughed or unemployed for helping deliver the vaccine rollout maybe not the jabs but traffic management  admin etc .... Community service ... 

There’s been talk of ex school staff/retirees  being used to help with testing school pupils whenever schools go back. Advantage is we have already been through the check process to work with kids. 

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Am getting really tired of all this now -have been working all through this as has my support bubble ( we both live alone) as we are key workers. Work is shit due to poor management  and whilst not frontline at moment I think I may end up getting drafted in as my current role may end up being made redundant. LA’s already struggling with austerity and now COVID means financially most councils are basically bankrupt. 
I am seriously thinking about going for early retirement now I am 60. I feel for all those with families and businesses who are messed about with all this change in policy, and know how lucky we are to still be working so feel bad about moaning about work when others are out of work. 
2020 can just do one now! We are really looking at 2022 before any real normality I think. 🙁 

The thought of Glastonbury next year was such a bright hope that is slowly fading now. 

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2 hours ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Sorry if this has been asked recently, but what's our resident professor @Toilet Duck's view on this new strain? Is there really evidence it's more contagious, or is it just a marker for an area that was always going to see explosive growth given that hospitality was open during winter+Xmas shopping? 

The virus seems more contagious everywhere

Howdy, it’s still early days and very difficult to say it’s more infectious at this point. It seems to be a combination of two variants that have been seen elsewhere and have been suggested as changes that might increase transmissibility. But as you’ve said, it spreading rapidly everywhere so it’s hard to say if it really is more infectious or if it is down to a founder effect. New variants crop up all the time and sometimes it’s a fitter virus and it outpaces the other circulating variants, and other times it’s nothing to do with the virus at all and everything to do with all the other things that drive transmission (us basically!). In order to really untangle things, you need to isolate it and study it in the lab (if I was doing that, I guess I’d use the hamster model that seems to be a good surrogate of infection in humans). You’d compare it to the other variants and really see if there was any difference. I haven’t seen anything like that yet, so until we do, it’s almost impossible to say. As discussed elsewhere (with the mink variant and others), while these changes occur in the spike, they don’t change it that much (if they did, the virus probably wouldn’t function the same way anymore). Also, the immune response we mount after infection or vaccination doesn’t just focus on one part of the spike, so tweaking bits of it probably wouldn’t render the vaccine obsolete (even if it did, we could adapt the new genetic vaccines anyway, though we have lots of good phase 3 safety data for these ones, so better if we can stick with them). 
 

TLDR: it’s too early to tell. It could be more infectious, but the hard evidence isn’t there yet and if it is, the vaccines should still work fine.

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Jesus.... that is practically vertical.

 

 

NEW: quick chart showing key context for today’s news of a Tier 4 Christmas

Cases are soaring in areas set to go into T4, with rate of increase extremely worrying. Testing has increased lately too, but even if we look at positivity, the rate of increase is very steep. https://t.co/G1yec68wxA

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I've found the map confusing tbh. I live in Buckinghamshire, which is now tier 4, but across the border are Oxfordshire and Northamptonshire, which get to stick as tier 2 despite Oxford and Northampton having had big rates at various points. Granted, we're probably not helped because rates have got out of control very quickly in Milton Keynes, but the geography confuses me a little.

In truth, though, I expected this. I think the November lockdown was eased too soon as the data suggested it was already getting out of control in the South East even before the thing ended.

Totally sucks though.

Edited by charlierc
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Looking back, the dates of introduction and subsequent relaxation of the November lockdown was crazy. If they really wanted to ‘save Christmas’ then they should have either extended the lockdown by a couple of weeks, or pushed it back later in the first instance. 

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3 minutes ago, st dan said:

Looking back, the dates of introduction and subsequent relaxation of the November lockdown was crazy. If they really wanted to ‘save Christmas’ then they should have either extended the lockdown by a couple of weeks, or pushed it back later in the first instance. 

I would have taken being in lockdown until Monday the 21st to allow us all a few days of Christmas with loved ones and then lockdown for New Year after that. 

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2 hours ago, crazyfool1 said:

hey guys if anyone needs a sympathetic ear and a chat xmas day alone or otherwise I will set up a zoom meet and have it open the entire day .... please shout if you need a chat ... virtual hugs to all x x 

That's absolutely lovely of you and I hope if someone needs it, it will help them x

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2 minutes ago, Kalopsia said:

I would have taken being in lockdown until Monday the 21st to allow us all a few days of Christmas with loved ones and then lockdown for New Year after that. 

This is what any sensible, competent government would have done. Squash the virus as much as possible up until the very last minute and then let people see their families. I'm trying not to be overly emotional about all of this but I'm sure I'm not alone when I say that I'll never ever forgive the tories or Johnson for their negligence. 

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Just now, topmarksbri said:

This is what any sensible, competent government would have done. Squash the virus as much as possible up until the very last minute and then let people see their families. I'm trying not to be overly emotional about all of this but I'm sure I'm not alone when I say that I'll never ever forgive the tories or Johnson for their negligence. 

I completely agree with you, that would have been a sensible and measured approach. 

He's also by his own yardstick inhuman and I don't want an inhuman prime minister. 

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