When will this shit end?

[zahidf]

10 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

No they won’t, they’ll keep it in till at least the vulnerable are vaccinated which will possibly be Easter. There might even be some form of social distancing for a little while after. The government have even said as much. I’m sorry to be a killjoy but a vaccine isn’t filing to magic everything away in weeks. I think it’s best to not set expectations so high with this, just so you aren’t left feeling disappointed 😀

Let's see (and I'm thinking Easter as well) but if the death rate drops dramatically, i don't see the public going along with restrictions.

[eFestivals]

6 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

Ooooo where have you seen that?

Sounds promising.

I think I might have misunderstood, and the date is for using the Pfizer vaccine.  

I heard a bit on beeb news earlier, but from googling I've found this:- 

https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/views/letters/in-full-notification-letter-for-gps-to-start-covid-vaccines/

[Ozanne]

3 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

It’s not just the government though it’s how people react on an individual level  ... hopefully you are right and people are still able and feel like they should be able to do the things required ... but I unfortunately don’t see this being the case ... I see this where I work and it’s becoming more the case even now ... once we have the jabs the we are the 99% lot will become more and more vocal ... 

I think the majority of people are sticking to the rules and will do so at least through the winter. If it’s just the vulnerable that have been vaccinated then I think people will feel the need to still follow the rules and as they should as well.

Surely it’s not bad advice to say don’t expect too much too quickly? I know how disappointed some people on here get when they see a news article saying there won’t be as many vaccines available as they thought, so I can see the disappointment if social distancing isn’t reduced as quick as people want too. Keep calm, follow the rules and we’ll be there soon. 

[Crazyfool01]

3 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I think the majority of people are sticking to the rules and will do so at least through the winter. If it’s just the vulnerable that have been vaccinated then I think people will feel the need to still follow the rules and as they should as well.

Surely it’s not bad advice to say don’t expect too much too quickly? I know how disappointed some people on here get when they see a news article saying there won’t be as many vaccines available as they thought, so I can see the disappointment if social distancing isn’t reduced as quick as people want too. Keep calm, follow the rules and we’ll be there soon. 

Absolutely not saying it’s bad advice one bit ... just that the realities of people’s behaviour and the compliance with government are definately turning ... it’s how long people feel able to stick to some restrictions if we get any loosening of others .... 

[Ozanne]

4 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Absolutely not saying it’s bad advice one bit ... just that the realities of people’s behaviour and the compliance with government are definately turning ... it’s how long people feel able to stick to some restrictions if we get any loosening of others .... 

We also need better messaging from the government telling us why restrictions are still in place and the importance of them, instead of it changing every few weeks. I feel that could help as well. 

[Copperface]

1 hour ago, zahidf said:

Politics will diverge from this. Theyll keep the low key stuff like handwashing and masks but get rid of social distancing Asap

Is this just your gut feeling or have you any evidence for this, or are you basically just ignoring virtually every scientific expert who has given an opinion, plus the majority of politicians who are cautioning against over optimism and over expectation? 

There have been one or two bluff and bluster politicos who have made vague waffly projections, but even then, have expressed caution. A bit of realism wouldn't go amiss,  along with acceptance of the bulk of scientific evidence.

You are repeatedly being told the opposite of what you say, you just choose to hope it goes away.

[steviewevie]

30 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Absolutely not saying it’s bad advice one bit ... just that the realities of people’s behaviour and the compliance with government are definately turning ... it’s how long people feel able to stick to some restrictions if we get any loosening of others .... 

yeah...they may keep the hands face space thing going for a while, but if numbers drop as well as people getting vaccinated then people will just stop complying, bit like last summer. Plus, sports and arts venues just need to start getting people in to watch otherwise many just won't survive, so in the end govt will have to relax the social distancing thing. Still not 100% sure on early summer festivals though, where any distancing can't be controlled at all.

[eFestivals]

1 minute ago, Copperface said:

Is this just your gut feeling or have you any evidence for this, or are you basically just ignoring virtually every scientific expert who has given an opinion, plus the majority of politicians who are cautioning against over optimism and over expectation? 

There have been one or two bluff and bluster politicos who have made vague waffly projections, but even then, have expressed caution. A bit of realism wouldn't go amiss,  along with acceptance of the bulk of scientific evidence.

You are repeatedly being told the opposite of what you say, you just choose to hope it goes away.

it's pretty damned clear already that politics is causing politicians to diverge from the medical/scientific. That's not going to lessen, it's going to grow.

As soon as there's no risk of medical overload, all of the reasoning the govt has used to date gets to mean restrictions come to an end.

They might change their reasoning, but there's little to suggest they might. All the way thru they've prioritised the economy over caution.

[steviewevie]

Bojo going to save us from catastrophe today?!

[Ozanne]

13 minutes ago, Copperface said:

Is this just your gut feeling or have you any evidence for this, or are you basically just ignoring virtually every scientific expert who has given an opinion, plus the majority of politicians who are cautioning against over optimism and over expectation? 

There have been one or two bluff and bluster politicos who have made vague waffly projections, but even then, have expressed caution. A bit of realism wouldn't go amiss,  along with acceptance of the bulk of scientific evidence.

You are repeatedly being told the opposite of what you say, you just choose to hope it goes away.

Spot on. There isn’t really any reason to think they’ll throw the doors open when the vaccine is rolled out to then vulnerable. Sure they’ll loosen things but we’ll see some measures in place for a little bit. 

[Crazyfool01]

3 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Bojo going to save us from catastrophe today?!

Is he working on a sat ? !! 

[steviewevie]

Just now, crazyfool1 said:

Is he working on a sat ? !! 

he just needs to have his phone on this afternoon.

[zahidf]

22 minutes ago, Copperface said:

Is this just your gut feeling or have you any evidence for this, or are you basically just ignoring virtually every scientific expert who has given an opinion, plus the majority of politicians who are cautioning against over optimism and over expectation? 

There have been one or two bluff and bluster politicos who have made vague waffly projections, but even then, have expressed caution. A bit of realism wouldn't go amiss,  along with acceptance of the bulk of scientific evidence.

You are repeatedly being told the opposite of what you say, you just choose to hope it goes away.

Superforcasters say that there is a 98% chance of a widely available vaccine by April 2021

https://unherd.com/thepost/in-praise-of-the-covid-superforecasters/

Its just the economic imperative and that across the globe were there has been a second lockdown, the public protests against them have grown. I simply don't think govts will take a hit on the economy if there is a widely available vaccine which people can take.

 

[zahidf]

10 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

he just needs to have his phone on this afternoon.

He always has it on for phonecalls

[zahidf]

24 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

it's pretty damned clear already that politics is causing politicians to diverge from the medical/scientific. That's not going to lessen, it's going to grow.

As soon as there's no risk of medical overload, all of the reasoning the govt has used to date gets to mean restrictions come to an end.

They might change their reasoning, but there's little to suggest they might. All the way thru they've prioritised the economy over caution.

And looking at the big picture, they are probably right to do that once the death rate is cut massively. Thats why I think hand washing and masks will stay longer but social distancing won't. Wearing masks and washing hands aren't economically damaging and is for the most part easy for the population to do for a high benefit. 

[Ozanne]

So the vast majority of politicians, medical officers and scientists saying some form of restrictions will be needed for a bit longer just whilst they get the the a larger portion of people vaccinated. I think that’s reason enough to think they’ll be restrictions in some form, albeit at a much reduced level. Cautious does need to be aired just in case. 

[Homer]

Minded to agree with this:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/dec/04/neil-kinnock-backing-brexit-deal-politically-lethal-for-labour

[zahidf]

15 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

So the vast majority of politicians, medical officers and scientists saying some form of restrictions will be needed for a bit longer just whilst they get the the a larger portion of people vaccinated. I think that’s reason enough to think they’ll be restrictions in some form, albeit at a much reduced level. Cautious does need to be aired just in case. 

Oh I'm not saying the restrictions will be gone as soon as the vaccinations start. I just think in the UK at least, we aren't going to be keeping the restrictions one minute more than the govt can get away with. I say Easter because that's when they are planning to have it available to all groups

[SwedgeAntilles]

Swedish government announced that nursing homes will be first for the vaccine, followed by healthcare professionals, over 70s and other risk groups. 

Interesting they've said that the general population will get it for free but NOT until after summer. So, realistically, I'm probably not looking at getting the vaccine until towards the end of next year. So if Glastonbury does go ahead I'll need to rely on some form of testing, rather than a any kind of vaccination passport. Who needs the stress of ticket day when you have multiple testing days? 

[Crazyfool01]

So we have 200 days remaining till gates open ...... we have come so far ..... despite the levels of idiocy we have to put up with .... quite a lot of hope from me that the shit will end ... it might turn into smaller dribs and drops of little shits but we slowly progress 

[squirrelarmy]

Who else thinks the anti lockdown protesters will transition into anti-vax protesters? 
 

It all seems to be the same crowd who are serial protesters. 

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, squirrelarmy said:

Who else thinks the anti lockdown protesters will transition into anti-vax protesters? 
 

It all seems to be the same crowd who are serial protesters. 

They are anti everything ... thats what im failing to understand ... anti mask , anti lockdown , anti vax  .... do they not realise that doing 1 will help with the others ? ..... Its all bloody bonkers ... and yes is the answer to your question 

[Copperface]

1 hour ago, eFestivals said:

it's pretty damned clear already that politics is causing politicians to diverge from the medical/scientific. That's not going to lessen, it's going to grow.

As soon as there's no risk of medical overload, all of the reasoning the govt has used to date gets to mean restrictions come to an end.

They might change their reasoning, but there's little to suggest they might. All the way thru they've prioritised the economy over caution.

Pt 1. To some extent yes, but the general and most important bits have been followed, even if somewhat occasionally delayed.

Pt 2. Agree that once they feel the NHS can cope with any surges there will be a graded relaxation. You've said 'restrictions come to an end'. All of them? Some of them? Which ones? That's a very woolly prediction. There is also much caution about when this point might be reached. Is it when the so called first phase of 25 million odd people has been done? Or when we reach the scientists figure of around 60-70% to feel we have a handle on the spread. 

Pt 3. Generally agree, but you can still open the country and tourism/hospitality up and allow people to mix far more freely on an individual basis. 99% of the population will be quite happy with this. If that is the case then the politicos will take that. Mass gatherings a step too far. It'll be very easy to say 'look, we've relaxed most restrictions, you can go round your mates for a BBQ, you can go to pubs, you can go on holiday, but bear with us , we haven't yet got to the point where we can let hundreds of thousands of people rock up and go feral in close proximity for a week at a time.'  Most people, maybe not on a festival forum, but outside the bubble, will accept that.

Plenty of spurious and misunderstood figures are being bandied around and seems that there is a wilful, but maybe totally understandable, reluctance to accept what is being reported widely. 

[Copperface]

1 hour ago, zahidf said:

Superforcasters say that there is a 98% chance of a widely available vaccine by April 2021

https://unherd.com/thepost/in-praise-of-the-covid-superforecasters/

Its just the economic imperative and that across the globe were there has been a second lockdown, the public protests against them have grown. I simply don't think govts will take a hit on the economy if there is a widely available vaccine which people can take.

 

Now descending into the realms of a parody.

[jannybruck]

7 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

Who else thinks the anti lockdown protesters will transition into anti-vax protesters? 
 

It all seems to be the same crowd who are serial protesters. 

The problem is that all these groups are so mixed and muddled that it's hard to pull them apart now. A lot of people who have legitimate concerns or questions about the vaccine are lumped with hardcore anti vaxxers. And anti vaxxers are lumped in with the lower level of anti lockdown people who have legitimate concerns about the data used to shut eg pubs. And those anti lockdown people are lumped in with anti maskers/anti science/5G/virus hardcore conspiracy nutters.

This is one of the problems all these groups have: some might have decent questions to ask, but they're always drowned out by another group who shouts louder or simply dismissed because it's not possible to parse them apart.

Edited December 5, 2020 by jannybruck