When will this shit end?

[Toilet Duck]

35 minutes ago, zahidf said:

Another depressing article about the Oxford vaccine not getting authorisation 

Be interested as always in what @Toilet Duck thinks! Is there an anti UK thing going on from the US? Or has Oxford messed up the reporting?

 

Don’t think it’s a US v UK thing, there are questions that could do with an answer. AZ certainly haven’t handled the disclosure of data very well. Bottom line, they have a vaccine that works. It works well enough and could work excellently. It may even have some impact on transmission. It appears to be safe and it’s an easier one to roll out. Without the screw up in the dosing, we’d be talking about authorising a vaccine with a lower efficacy than the other two, but emergency use still exists since there isn’t enough of the other two to go around yet and I think if they’d ended up only at just over 60% efficacy, they’d still have gotten it authorised. But, they now have a problem. What dose to use? They essentially have the equivalent of phase 2 data for the reduced dose regimen and they really need to test this in an older population as well as testing it versus the full dose. They still have enough for it to be authorised (60%+ clears the efficacy hurdle), but my guess is that if it is authorised in the near future, it will be the two full dose regimen, which could be altered in the future. AZ need to get their protocol amendments in yesterday to sort out this dosing question. 

[FestivalJamie]

52 minutes ago, Chapple12345 said:

Be interesting to see what happens with what areas tomorrow, especially with a review a fortnight into it 

I worry a lot about January with this decision. The daily deaths at the moment are just not acceptable and I don’t want to see a repeat of what we are seeing at the moment.

[dotdash79]

 

[Ozanne]

7 minutes ago, dotdash79 said:

 

That article didn’t mention the South for some reason. However Meridian this evening said that Brighton and Southampton were going into tier 1.

[efcfanwirral]

 

1 hour ago, stuartbert two hats said:

They've changed the way they present the data. I don't like change. Stockport has finally fallen below the national average though.

Something very strange about the Manchester numbers going down so quickly and so consistently in all areas.

Is this proof that pubs are the main source of spread there? Though I can't imagine any measures they have imposed on them have changed compliance levels especially in the worst areas - anyone who was meeting others in September will still be now, just even more indoors.

Has the virus burnt through all it can mainly? 

Or the cynical view...have the large number of deniers there realised they could get themselves out of lockdown quicker by encouraging family and friends to not get tested? 

Edited November 25, 2020 by efcfanwirral

[stuartbert two hats]

12 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

 

Something very strange about the Manchester numbers going down so quickly and so consistently in all areas.

Is this proof that pubs are the main source of spread there? Though I can't imagine any measures they have imposed on them have changed compliance levels especially in the worst areas - anyone who was meeting others in September will still be now, just even more indoors.

Has the virus burnt through all it can mainly? 

Or the cynical view...have the large number of deniers there realised they could get themselves out of lockdown quicker by encouraging family and friends to not get tested? 

It's not strange, we had a head start. And believe it or not, some of us do take the no mixing indoors rule seriously. 

But yeah, I think it was the pubs, but then again I suspected that when the first lockdown ended without a huge amount of evidence, so it may be confirmation bias... But it seemed to work in Bolton until they opened them again. 

I'm hopeful that the new tier 2 will be enough to keep R under zero.

 

[shoptildrop]

12 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

 

Something very strange about the Manchester numbers going down so quickly and so consistently in all areas.

Is this proof that pubs are the main source of spread there? Though I can't imagine any measures they have imposed on them have changed compliance levels especially in the worst areas - anyone who was meeting others in September will still be now, just even more indoors.

Has the virus burnt through all it can mainly? 

Or the cynical view...have the large number of deniers there realised they could get themselves out of lockdown quicker by encouraging family and friends to not get tested? 

I'm gonna go with the weather, people simply not going out as much cos weather is shit!! I do think we have become so used to restrictions we've just accepted it and dealt with it which is reflected in the figs. Remember we had tier 3 running up to this lockdown which must have had an effect

Hospitals admissions/deaths will probably continue to rise for a few weeks but I'm hoping they will drop inline with case drops.

I also think people in the NW will be more cautious about Christmas with the vaccine in sight, as what's a few more months given we've been in some sort of additional restrictions since 31st July

[stuartbert two hats]

15 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

 

Something very strange about the Manchester numbers going down so quickly and so consistently in all areas.

Is this proof that pubs are the main source of spread there? Though I can't imagine any measures they have imposed on them have changed compliance levels especially in the worst areas - anyone who was meeting others in September will still be now, just even more indoors.

Has the virus burnt through all it can mainly? 

Or the cynical view...have the large number of deniers there realised they could get themselves out of lockdown quicker by encouraging family and friends to not get tested? 

And it's not a testing thing. Last time I checked, hospital admissions had flattened, cases are genuinely down. The difference is the few weeks of tier 3 before the lockdown, as straightforward as that.

[shoptildrop]

3 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

It's not strange, we had a head start. And believe it or not, some of us do take the no mixing indoors rule seriously. 

But yeah, I think it was the pubs, but then again I suspected that when the first lockdown ended without a huge amount of evidence, so it may be confirmation bias... But it seemed to work in Bolton until they opened them again. 

I'm hopeful that the new tier 2 will be enough to keep R under zero.

 

I'd agree most of my friends and colleagues in the NW are generally being very good on restrictions - there are a few who aren't which is inevitable but I think we've simply gotten used to restrictions given we've never really got out of lockdown unlike areas that had freedoms for months then have to get used to having restrictions imposed again

[shoptildrop]

Hold the press the lights are coming back on!! 

 

[DeanoL]

8 hours ago, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

Exactly - the public sector haven't just worked hard during Covid they have worked hard every single day providing services to the citizens of this country. 

I must have missed all the payrises I got while still working in the public sector because austerity put pay to it for years... The attitude towards (and within public sector management) is you should be greatful you have a job. 

The public sector is huge though, and while a lot have had a really hard time this year, there's other areas where work has dropped off massively, people have been saving by working at home (and will continue to do so) - all the administrative, office-based functions fit in to this. Some have been effectively "furloughed" on full pay. 

The exemption for NHS front-line staff should go further, to police, etc and others who have had their work get loads harder over the past year, but generally I feel given the declining economy, and massive pay freezes in the private sector an approach of "public sector pay freeze with exeptions" is valid.

[Homer]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/26/matt-hancock-former-neighbour-won-covid-test-kit-contract-after-whatsapp-message

[Zoo Music Girl]

BBC reporting that London will be tier 2:

BBC political editor Laura Kuenssberg said she understood only a "handful" of areas would have the lowest level of restrictions, tier one.

Most areas, including London, would be in tier two with "significant numbers" in tier three - the highest level.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55078888

Won't make a vast difference to my current life if so. It does mean my gym can run classes, though, which they can't in tier 3.

I don't really understand the decision to review it on the 16th in that doesn't it normally take about two weeks to see any effect on  numbers? So we won't know by then.

[steviewevie]

8 hours ago, efcfanwirral said:

 

Something very strange about the Manchester numbers going down so quickly and so consistently in all areas.

Is this proof that pubs are the main source of spread there? Though I can't imagine any measures they have imposed on them have changed compliance levels especially in the worst areas - anyone who was meeting others in September will still be now, just even more indoors.

Has the virus burnt through all it can mainly? 

Or the cynical view...have the large number of deniers there realised they could get themselves out of lockdown quicker by encouraging family and friends to not get tested? 

I think people started being more careful when numbers were looking bad in October, I certainly noticed it...But numbers coming down everywhere also...and apart from shops Manchester was mostly in lockdown a few weeks before everyone else.

[steviewevie]

The cut in foreign aid is popular with the masses...who'd have thought it?

[parsonjack]

8 hours ago, Ozanne said:

That article didn’t mention the South for some reason. However Meridian this evening said that Brighton and Southampton were going into tier 1.

Interesting.  Rates for Brighton and Southampton are around 81 and 129 per 100k in week to 21st Nov but both areas are showing a good fall in last 10 days or so.  Mendip where I am is on 114 cases so smack between the 2, but still showing a very slight increase.  If the criteria to be used is correct then I can see Mendip being in Tier 2 even with less cases than Southampton.

[steviewevie]

7 hours ago, DeanoL said:

The public sector is huge though, and while a lot have had a really hard time this year, there's other areas where work has dropped off massively, people have been saving by working at home (and will continue to do so) - all the administrative, office-based functions fit in to this. Some have been effectively "furloughed" on full pay. 

The exemption for NHS front-line staff should go further, to police, etc and others who have had their work get loads harder over the past year, but generally I feel given the declining economy, and massive pay freezes in the private sector an approach of "public sector pay freeze with exeptions" is valid.

Maybe unpopular on here, but is valid and shouldn't just be downvoted. When you look at the nujbers yesterday...there is going to be some pain, just that pain has to be fairly distributed somehow. One good thing is super cheap for government to borrow so can continue to spend and no need to make massive cuts or tax rises...yet...

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

7 hours ago, DeanoL said:

The public sector is huge though, and while a lot have had a really hard time this year, there's other areas where work has dropped off massively, people have been saving by working at home (and will continue to do so) - all the administrative, office-based functions fit in to this. Some have been effectively "furloughed" on full pay. 

The exemption for NHS front-line staff should go further, to police, etc and others who have had their work get loads harder over the past year, but generally I feel given the declining economy, and massive pay freezes in the private sector an approach of "public sector pay freeze with exeptions" is valid.

That's just not true though. 

1. Working at home doesn't save everyone money, there are still costs associated with working at home, and not everyone has an expensive commute to work. 

2. Using local authorities as an example with the exception of very few services they didn't just stop providing that service because of lockdown that's not how the provision of vital public services works. In local authorities staff get redeployed during emergencies so for example at the local authority I worked at library staff that weren't directly involved in the running of the library services which could continue were redeployed to the Covid contact centre to answer calls (24/7) from people requiring support due to Covid. They also made calls to those identified as being the most vuberable. Other local authority staff who worked in non essential roles were deployed to the allocations an management of volunteers, food distribution, PPE distribution.  They are all brand new functions thrown together in days. Now you have local authority staff doing track and trace. IT project managers were repurposed to manage the above projects all remotely as the previous projects were all halted. Thats those who weren't put on the bins to cover the sickness and self isolation. The team I worked in just a back office team not on the front line worked every day for 5 or 6 weeks proving the data, processes and systems for these things to actually function. If it wasn't a pandemic and it was flooding these people get redeployed to delivering sandbags or closing footpaths due to foot and mouth whatever it might be.

3. The office based functions of a local authority are there to support the front line. Procurement still needed to happen, IT still need to be provided and in lots of cases spun up almost over night to enable all staff to work from home using the example of where I worked at the time we went from 1500 ish staff with the ability to work remotely to all 3500 ish staff able to work remotely in the days running upto lock down. 

Just a few examples there of what actually happens in the public sector during and this isn't just about the pandemic it's about years of austerity (in the last 6 years I've applied for my own job twice and I've left before doing it again now) and years of real terms pay cuts at best. The place I worked has had its budget cut by more than 55% during austerity. So it's not just about Covid it's about a long old painful slog before and after Covid as it's the public sector who will again pay for it through spending reviews etc.... - I don't begrudge out public servants getting a pay rise they mostly do a damn good job. 

Sure there are pockets of waster and there is waste and they do things they don't need to do - just like any business. 

My experience of working with the private sector and now in the private sector other than a handful of the bigger companies it's not the beacon of efficiency it's portrayed to be and like the public sector has its wasters and some rank bad practice the difference is it's a customer who foots the bill for that. 

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

4 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Maybe unpopular on here, but is valid and shouldn't just be downvoted. When you look at the nujbers yesterday...there is going to be some pain, just that pain has to be fairly distributed somehow. One good thing is super cheap for government to borrow so can continue to spend and no need to make massive cuts or tax rises...yet...

Why does it have to be fairy distributed? It hasn't been fairly distributed for the last 12 years. If public sector workers didn't pay tax or buy products and services you might be right... in lots of parts of the country the LA and NHS are some of the largest employers you reduce their spending power you reduce the local economy but that's only just the areas that struggle the most and need the most support from public services... Nowhere important. 

[steviewevie]

7 minutes ago, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

Why does it have to be fairy distributed? It hasn't been fairly distributed for the last 12 years. If public sector workers didn't pay tax or buy products and services you might be right... in lots of parts of the country the LA and NHS are some of the largest employers you reduce their spending power you reduce the local economy but that's only just the areas that struggle the most and need the most support from public services... Nowhere important. 

ok, it should be unfairly distributed then.

[Zoo Music Girl]

Anyone know what time Hancock is meant to be speaking?

[Ozanne]

The thing that makes me angry is the amount of people earlier this year that stood on their doorsteps and clapped every Thursday evening for key workers. They loved putting that all over social media. But now, when key workers are being stitched up by the government where are those people now? Nowhere. There’s nothing on their social media’s about the key workers they were so desperate to show they appreciated. Where is the support for them now when they need it the most?

It goes to show that clapping act was the very definition of a pointless gesture. 

[parsonjack]

3 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

The thing that makes me angry is the amount of people earlier this year that stood on their doorsteps and clapped every Thursday evening for key workers. They loved putting that all over social media. But now, when key workers are being stitched up by the government where are those people now? Nowhere. There’s nothing on their social media’s about the key workers they were so desperate to show they appreciated. Where is the support for them now when they need it the most?

It goes to show that clapping act was the very definition of a pointless gesture. 

I guess a significant number of those who clapped saw 'key workers' as the NHS, and nothing further.

[Ozanne]

1 minute ago, parsonjack said:

I guess a significant number of those who clapped saw 'key workers' as the NHS, and nothing further.

Possibly but it was said enough who it was for, it was mentioned every week by  plenty. It’s easy to carry out a gesture and dare I say stylish to put that on social media. It’s not as stylish to comment on a Chancellors Spending Review.

I’m not having a go at you mate, the whole things makes me so angry. 

[steviewevie]

9 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

The thing that makes me angry is the amount of people earlier this year that stood on their doorsteps and clapped every Thursday evening for key workers. They loved putting that all over social media. But now, when key workers are being stitched up by the government where are those people now? Nowhere. There’s nothing on their social media’s about the key workers they were so desperate to show they appreciated. Where is the support for them now when they need it the most?

It goes to show that clapping act was the very definition of a pointless gesture. 

Not all key workers are in the public sector of course...