When will this shit end?

[Leyrulion]

2 minutes ago, Punksnotdead said:

I want to, I REALLY want to! Ten months since my last gig and I miss it soooooo much!

I miss having an elbow jammed in my back, spilling the pint on the way back trying to find your mate, sweat dripping from the ceiling. 

Oh it's gonna be good. 

Until about 15 minutes in when some one 6ft giant stands in front of me and I think "dick head"

And normality resumes.

[incident]

6 minutes ago, Leyrulion said:

Huge logistical challenges involved in delivery obviously, reasons to think the 1.2mil will be exceeded, reasons to think it won't.

There's definitely huge logistical challenges in the delivery of the Pfizer vaccine.. However if the Oxford Vaccine does get approved and becomes available around the same time then distribution for that one should be a hell of a lot easier, and we could potentially see that delivered in all the same places that deliver the flu vaccine (including Boots and supermarket pharmacies).

[squirrelarmy]

9 minutes ago, Leyrulion said:

Until about 15 minutes in when some one 6ft giant stands in front of me and I think "dick head"

Don’t worry about the 6’0 guys. 
 

It’s the 6’3 guys with spiky hats you have to watch out for. 

[Leyrulion]

10 minutes ago, incident said:

There's definitely huge logistical challenges in the delivery of the Pfizer vaccine.. However if the Oxford Vaccine does get approved and becomes available around the same time then distribution for that one should be a hell of a lot easier, and we could potentially see that delivered in all the same places that deliver the flu vaccine (including Boots and supermarket pharmacies).

I'm not sure the cold storage for Pfizer is as bad as we might think. It can be kept in a normal refrigerator at -2 to -8 for 5 days before spoiling. Which for a country the size of the UK and with a sophisticated logistics industry used to just in time delivery shouldn't be too much of a problem. 

The main logistics issue I see is that the normal flu sites are unlikely to be enough if we're to get it to scale. That has complications, who do you tell to go where, how do you check people aren't getting it 4 times etc etc

[Ryan1984]

They just said at the start of the BBC News that the top scientists are warning of a ‘difficult winter’ and a ‘return to normality’ late next year.

[stuartbert two hats]

More good news from my neck of the woods. Stockport under 300 by Tuesday?

Edited November 15, 2020 by stuartbert two hats
Forgot to post case numbers!

[Leyrulion]

2 minutes ago, Ryan1984 said:

They just said at the start of the BBC News that the top scientists are warning of a ‘difficult winter’ and a ‘return to normality’ late next year.

It's happening. 

God the fact that there's a light at the end of this horrid nightmare is getting me through lockdown 2.

[Punksnotdead]

15 minutes ago, Leyrulion said:

I miss having an elbow jammed in my back, spilling the pint on the way back trying to find your mate, sweat dripping from the ceiling. 

Oh it's gonna be good. 

Until about 15 minutes in when some one 6ft giant stands in front of me and I think "dick head"

And normality resumes.

That moment when the lights go down & the backing tape stops & the crowd move forward & you know the band/artist you love are about to come on stage......Oh God, I'm not going to be able to sleep now!!!!!

[Sawdusty surfer]

3 minutes ago, Ryan1984 said:

They just said at the start of the BBC News that the top scientists are warning of a ‘difficult winter’ and a ‘return to normality’ late next year.

The way I see things going are that with a bit of luck events will start to happen towards the end of next summer. Hate to say it but mass gatherings with people crammed together aren't likely early summer as the vaccine roll out won't be widespread enough by then. I'd love to be wrong.

If that's the case I can see myself going completely mental in maybe August when I'm finally allowed to. I'm unlikely to be the only one.

This shit will end, the end is in sight.It is just a matter of time. Hurrah.

[FestivalJamie]

1 hour ago, zahidf said:

Thats maybe what we would do in a perfect world. But people aren't following lockdown really without a vaccine. Once NHS workers and the elderly get a vaccine by Jan say, do you really think most people are going to agree to social distance?

 

I dont. People want back to normal ASAP. 

Of course people aren’t going to agree to social distance, but it doesn’t mean laws regarding amounts of people you can socialise with, hospitality closing times, mask and social distancing rules in public venues won’t be in place. And it certainly doesn’t mean that venues and events will be able to go ahead without scientific and government approval.

I can’t see NHS workers and the elderly being vaccinated by January, this is a huge logistical operation, and whilst the vaccine news is looking positive, it hasn’t been signed off yet. And there’s an estimated 30-35 million people in the uk who need vaccinating (50+,healthcare workers and underlying conditions) to stop risk of increase in hospitalisation and overwhelming the nhs by getting the r down.

Its the same as people who are anti-restrictions, the more they fight against the restrictions and the more they break them, the longer and tougher the restrictions are. This is going to be no different. Once we start distributing a vaccine, compliance will drop, but those restrictions won’t go away, and the r will shoot up again meaning a lockdown comes back into play. Until high enough proportions are vaccinated we can’t start easing public restrictions, and it’s going to be a gradual process rather than a mass release of back to normal.

I still think festivals are possible for next year though, with private rapid testing or PCR tests before entry. I can’t see clubs or smaller gigs going ahead til the second half of the year at the earliest as testing everyone before entry to nightclubs would not be financially sustainable.

[FestivalJamie]

1 hour ago, stuartbert two hats said:

More good news from my neck of the woods. Stockport under 300 by Tuesday?

Very promising. Shame midlands and south west are on the rise but Manchester looking much more promising for sure.

[stuartbert two hats]

1 hour ago, FestivalJamie said:

Very promising. Shame midlands and south west are on the rise but Manchester looking much more promising for sure.

They should follow in time. It was tier 3 that turned us, lockdown just kept it going.

[shoptildrop]

3 hours ago, FestivalJamie said:

SAGEs report today said that a further 9% infected would only bring immunity levels up enough to get the r rate down from 1.1 to 1.0 with all the current restrictions in place.

So for every 9% vaccinated, the r comes down by 0.1 (ish). Given there are 35 million 50+ and vulnerable in the uk, and everyone needs 2 doses, that’s 70 million jabs need to be done. 

I read recently on this forum that the NHS are aiming 1.2 million jabs a week. I think that is telling of how long it is going to take to get enough of the population vaccinated to get the r down enough to stop deaths and risk of hospitals being overwhelmed. I doubt non-vulnerable will ever even be offered the vaccine this is such a mass logistical operation.

Sorry for the negative tone but all of these “back to normal by spring” headlines are false optimism. Expect 4-5 months of hard restrictions from now, on and off lockdowns and major restrictions on socialising. From spring, expect to be able to have private gatherings but masks and social distancing in public. From summer I can visualise larger events such as theatres and cinemas and well ventilated concerts provided everyone is tested before entry.

I don’t expect the likes of clubbing to return to 2022. Festivals are a difficult one because they are outdoors and well ventilated so chances are higher, but if they happen I expect some adaptations in the way of no indoor stages etc. And everyone to be tested before entry, even with people being vaccinated daily.

Im so positive and happy that we have discovered a working vaccine and it’s likely we will have more than one working one in circulation, but the logistics required to vaccinate the vulnerable and the amount of people who need to be vaccinated to make a noticeable difference on the r cannot be overlooked.

So, I’m hopeful things can be more normal by spring. I’m confident things can be more normal by summer. But the phrase “back to normal by spring” is very misleading, because it almost certainly will not be the case. 

I don’t think things will be “back to normal” in 2021, maybe 2022 if we are lucky at a push. But I don’t expect venues such as nightclubs to be able to reopen their doors next year as they are poorly ventilated and cramped spaces, ie hotspots for virus recirculation, which is exactly what we want to avoid.

Vaccine “passports” are off the table as most of us probably won’t even have the chance to take one, perhaps privately, but not with the nhs.

 

 

I know what you mean about not all folk eligible for a vaccine, I'm in mid 40s and don't think I'd be eligible either but damn I'm very worried about what getting covid would do to me (I'm fat btw)

[shoptildrop]

3 hours ago, stuartbert two hats said:

More good news from my neck of the woods. Stockport under 300 by Tuesday?

Im so pleased to see this after months of everything going up!

[Ozanne]

6 hours ago, FestivalJamie said:

Very promising. Shame midlands and south west are on the rise but Manchester looking much more promising for sure.

It is a shame especially as a few of us on here called this weeks ago that cases in parts of the south were on the rise. It’s partly why we’ve seen cases rise like they have over the past few days. 

[Superscally]

8 hours ago, Leyrulion said:

I'm not sure the cold storage for Pfizer is as bad as we might think. It can be kept in a normal refrigerator at -2 to -8 for 5 days before spoiling. Which for a country the size of the UK and with a sophisticated logistics industry used to just in time delivery shouldn't be too much of a problem. 

The main logistics issue I see is that the normal flu sites are unlikely to be enough if we're to get it to scale. That has complications, who do you tell to go where, how do you check people aren't getting it 4 times etc etc

Do it at the testing sites. 

Use a unique QR on the phone. Some people would cheat the system, but a minuscule, insignificant number. 

[steviewevie]

8 hours ago, Chapple12345 said:

I'm not one for conspiracies or whatever but I truly believe this has been around for months longer than we knew, first cases in China were reportedly October/November time before being reported to WHO on New Years Eve last year, the world didnt suddenly stop then so it allowed time to travel round initially - I bascially believe we're currently in probably what is the 3rd wave of it but we just didnt realise it was with us till January time 

if so why weren't people being hospitalised and dying from it much earlier?

[steviewevie]

8 hours ago, stuartbert two hats said:

More good news from my neck of the woods. Stockport under 300 by Tuesday?

looks like we're past the peak...not sure what happens when some restrictions lifted next month or so...enough natural immunity around?

[Zoo Music Girl]

Another trial starting today:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54951650

[stuartbert two hats]

5 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

looks like we're past the peak...not sure what happens when some restrictions lifted next month or so...enough natural immunity around?

I don't see any evidence that there's enough natural immunity around (apart from perhaps in the student population).

If Manchester goes back into tier 3, the numbers should decline or stay roughly flat. If it goes into tier 2 or lower, the numbers will go back up again, and if unchecked will exceed the previous peak.  Sadly, I don't think vaccination alone will be enough to stop numbers soaring again with the timescales we're looking at coming out of lockdown.

It's got to be back to tier 3, and given the amount of time tier 3 is needed, some economic package beyond furlough will be needed from the treasurery.

[Chapple12345]

12 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

if so why weren't people being hospitalised and dying from it much earlier?

Perhaps mutations happened and made it deadlier, I know there was an article saying France recorded their first case a month earlier than they originally thought:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-europe-52526554

I'm not saying it's been as deadly as before but I still think it's been around longer than we think 

[Lycra]

8 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

if so why weren't people being hospitalised and dying from it much earlier?

Maybe they were but it was not noticed; symptoms ascribed to others diseases. Take HIV/AIDS for example, it came to prominence in the early 1980s but has since been shown to be around in the human population 50 - 60yrs previous.

[steviewevie]

3 minutes ago, Lycra said:

Maybe they were but it was not noticed; symptoms ascribed to others diseases. Take HIV/AIDS for example, it came to prominence in the early 1980s but has since been shown to be around in the human population 50 - 60yrs previous.

but seeing how rapidly it spreads and how ill people get, I'm sure someone would have noticed something was up if we were going through a first wave last winter.

[steviewevie]

12 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

I don't see any evidence that there's enough natural immunity around (apart from perhaps in the student population).

If Manchester goes back into tier 3, the numbers should decline or stay roughly flat. If it goes into tier 2 or lower, the numbers will go back up again, and if unchecked will exceed the previous peak.  Sadly, I don't think vaccination alone will be enough to stop numbers soaring again with the timescales we're looking at coming out of lockdown.

It's got to be back to tier 3, and given the amount of time tier 3 is needed, some economic package beyond furlough will be needed from the treasurery.

yeah, have to see what happens next month. A big part is people's perception of what going from lockdown to Tier3 actually means...

[steviewevie]

Hancock doing the media rounds this morning, even GMB.