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When will this shit end?

Chrisp1986

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jparx
jparx

I think on a music festival message board it’s a legitimate question to ask. It doesn’t suggest the OP doesn’t give a shit about anything else. Of course there are much bigger things to be worrie

Toilet Duck
Toilet Duck

So...OX/AZ, blood clots, suspension of vaccinations, politics, vaccine hesitancy, convoluted data, PR problems, Brexit, EU procurement naivety, poor logistics, national identity...there’s an awful lot

Lycra
Lycra

A while since I/we posted because just like everyone else we get fed up of this shit. So just like to say..... For the first time since last March we are free of covid patients 😊

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Ryan1984 Mentor

Ryan1984

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, tigger123 said:

Sir John Bell also said last week that life would be back to normal by spring. Given he is a key part of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine I think that his opinion carries an equal amount of weight as the guy from biontech. In short we don’t know who’s right, so let’s try and stay positive. If I was to try and assess whose opinion carried more weight, I would possibly side more with John Bell’s estimate of spring, given he is also part of the UK vaccine task force so is probably more privy to what the UK government actually has planned as well as being someone who would be advising the government as to when restrictions could be lifted. He’s not a stupid man, there must be some strong reasoning as to why he thought Spring could be when restrictions are lifted, as he will have known that his prediction would make headlines and will have wanted to avoid predicting something that isn’t likely to happen

And the German minister’s five months would take us up to spring!

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Lycra Rising Star

Lycra

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, tigger123 said:

Sir John Bell also said last week that life would be back to normal by spring. Given he is a key part of the Oxford/AstraZeneca vaccine I think that his opinion carries an equal amount of weight as the guy from biontech. In short we don’t know who’s right, so let’s try and stay positive. If I was to try and assess whose opinion carried more weight, I would possibly side more with John Bell’s estimate of spring, given he is also part of the UK vaccine task force so is probably more privy to what the UK government actually has planned as well as being someone who would be advising the government as to when restrictions could be lifted. He’s not a stupid man, there must be some strong reasoning as to why he thought Spring could be when restrictions are lifted, as he will have known that his prediction would make headlines and will have wanted to avoid predicting something that isn’t likely to happen

Sir John Bell said could not would. He's not stupid, he trying give a perspective and an opinion; just like the Head of BioNTech. Ultimately it's a guess, be it educated or not. Experts do differ in opinion..........And  ultimately the decision to relax any restrictions will be driven by the infections numbers & their impact on the NHS....and life in general.

 

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FestivalJamie Collaborator

FestivalJamie

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SAGEs report today said that a further 9% infected would only bring immunity levels up enough to get the r rate down from 1.1 to 1.0 with all the current restrictions in place.

So for every 9% vaccinated, the r comes down by 0.1 (ish). Given there are 35 million 50+ and vulnerable in the uk, and everyone needs 2 doses, that’s 70 million jabs need to be done. 

I read recently on this forum that the NHS are aiming 1.2 million jabs a week. I think that is telling of how long it is going to take to get enough of the population vaccinated to get the r down enough to stop deaths and risk of hospitals being overwhelmed. I doubt non-vulnerable will ever even be offered the vaccine this is such a mass logistical operation.

Sorry for the negative tone but all of these “back to normal by spring” headlines are false optimism. Expect 4-5 months of hard restrictions from now, on and off lockdowns and major restrictions on socialising. From spring, expect to be able to have private gatherings but masks and social distancing in public. From summer I can visualise larger events such as theatres and cinemas and well ventilated concerts provided everyone is tested before entry.

I don’t expect the likes of clubbing to return to 2022. Festivals are a difficult one because they are outdoors and well ventilated so chances are higher, but if they happen I expect some adaptations in the way of no indoor stages etc. And everyone to be tested before entry, even with people being vaccinated daily.

Im so positive and happy that we have discovered a working vaccine and it’s likely we will have more than one working one in circulation, but the logistics required to vaccinate the vulnerable and the amount of people who need to be vaccinated to make a noticeable difference on the r cannot be overlooked.

So, I’m hopeful things can be more normal by spring. I’m confident things can be more normal by summer. But the phrase “back to normal by spring” is very misleading, because it almost certainly will not be the case. 

I don’t think things will be “back to normal” in 2021, maybe 2022 if we are lucky at a push. But I don’t expect venues such as nightclubs to be able to reopen their doors next year as they are poorly ventilated and cramped spaces, ie hotspots for virus recirculation, which is exactly what we want to avoid.

Vaccine “passports” are off the table as most of us probably won’t even have the chance to take one, perhaps privately, but not with the nhs.

 

 

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incident Grand Master

incident

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

I read recently on this forum that the NHS are aiming 1.2 million jabs a week.

You misread.

1.2 million a week is a loose calculation of the capacity if every NHS trust meets, and stops at, their minimum obligations.

I've not seen a specific target number for capacity, and there may not even be one yet, but the intention is that most NHS trusts and especially ones in high population areas vastly exceed the minimum.

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Leyrulion Veteran

Leyrulion

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Ryan1984 said:

Next month?! Or in 2021?

21 🤣🤣

It's 51 weeks away, even if the NHS managed only 1.2 million vaccine doses a week and only started vaccinating from January that'd be 30 million vaccinated by the time it comes round. 

That's 60% of the adult population vaccinated by December. 

We might not even be aiming to get that high a proportion of the adult population vaccinated-it depends on the final outcomes of the vaccines trials and the sort of immunity it gives.

Huge logistical challenges involved in delivery obviously, reasons to think the 1.2mil will be exceeded, reasons to think it won't. 

But the scientific consensus is by the end of next year, all going well, at the very latest we'll be able to go to gigs! (If you want to...)

 

Edit:

I should add that I think this will still be with mitigation measures such as advanced testing, temperature checks, masks on transport etc etc. 

And obviously September next year will be the big test to see if the plan has worked... History shows there could be a 3rd peak, but if that September rise doesn't appear like this year or is significantly reduced in size then it'll be full steam ahead to removing the last of the restrictions in early 2022.

 

Edited by Leyrulion
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Chapple12345 Proficient

Chapple12345

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, onthebeach said:

Interesting ....

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/11/15/coronavirus-emerged-in-italy-earlier-than-thought-study-shows.html

I'm not one for conspiracies or whatever but I truly believe this has been around for months longer than we knew, first cases in China were reportedly October/November time before being reported to WHO on New Years Eve last year, the world didnt suddenly stop then so it allowed time to travel round initially - I bascially believe we're currently in probably what is the 3rd wave of it but we just didnt realise it was with us till January time 

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zahidf Grand Master

zahidf

Posted
Posted (edited)
37 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

SAGEs report today said that a further 9% infected would only bring immunity levels up enough to get the r rate down from 1.1 to 1.0 with all the current restrictions in place.

So for every 9% vaccinated, the r comes down by 0.1 (ish). Given there are 35 million 50+ and vulnerable in the uk, and everyone needs 2 doses, that’s 70 million jabs need to be done. 

I read recently on this forum that the NHS are aiming 1.2 million jabs a week. I think that is telling of how long it is going to take to get enough of the population vaccinated to get the r down enough to stop deaths and risk of hospitals being overwhelmed. I doubt non-vulnerable will ever even be offered the vaccine this is such a mass logistical operation.

Sorry for the negative tone but all of these “back to normal by spring” headlines are false optimism. Expect 4-5 months of hard restrictions from now, on and off lockdowns and major restrictions on socialising. From spring, expect to be able to have private gatherings but masks and social distancing in public. From summer I can visualise larger events such as theatres and cinemas and well ventilated concerts provided everyone is tested before entry.

I don’t expect the likes of clubbing to return to 2022. Festivals are a difficult one because they are outdoors and well ventilated so chances are higher, but if they happen I expect some adaptations in the way of no indoor stages etc. And everyone to be tested before entry, even with people being vaccinated daily.

Im so positive and happy that we have discovered a working vaccine and it’s likely we will have more than one working one in circulation, but the logistics required to vaccinate the vulnerable and the amount of people who need to be vaccinated to make a noticeable difference on the r cannot be overlooked.

So, I’m hopeful things can be more normal by spring. I’m confident things can be more normal by summer. But the phrase “back to normal by spring” is very misleading, because it almost certainly will not be the case. 

I don’t think things will be “back to normal” in 2021, maybe 2022 if we are lucky at a push. But I don’t expect venues such as nightclubs to be able to reopen their doors next year as they are poorly ventilated and cramped spaces, ie hotspots for virus recirculation, which is exactly what we want to avoid.

Vaccine “passports” are off the table as most of us probably won’t even have the chance to take one, perhaps privately, but not with the nhs.

 

 

Thats maybe what we would do in a perfect world. But people aren't following lockdown really without a vaccine. Once NHS workers and the elderly get a vaccine by Jan say, do you really think most people are going to agree to social distance?

 

I dont. People want back to normal ASAP. 

Edited by zahidf
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Punksnotdead Mentor

Punksnotdead

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Leyrulion said:

21 🤣🤣

It's 51 weeks away, even if the NHS managed only 1.2 million vaccine doses a week and only started vaccinating from January that'd be 30 million vaccinated by the time it comes round. 

That's 60% of the adult population vaccinated by December. 

We might not even be aiming to get that high a proportion of the adult population vaccinated-it depends on the final outcomes of the vaccines trials and the sort of immunity it gives.

Huge logistical challenges involved in delivery obviously, reasons to think the 1.2mil will be exceeded, reasons to think it won't. 

But the scientific consensus is by the end of next year, all going well, at the very latest we'll be able to go to gigs! (If you want to...)

 

 

I want to, I REALLY want to! Ten months since my last gig and I miss it soooooo much!

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