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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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35 minutes ago, Lizzim said:

Ok so what's going on on Edinburgh? https://www.edinburghlive.co.uk/news/edinburgh-news/coronavirus-scotland-edinburgh-fewer-covid-19194452

What are we doing right?  I have a few theories but don't have the evidence to back it up so I won't speculate.  Down my way the high rise flats were blasting out Sunshine on Leith again.  

I love Leith, I'm almost a local after 22 years living here.

 

 

Fellow EH6 resident here. I 💚 Leith too. 

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12 minutes ago, Radiochicken said:

I’m literally fuming. Fuming. No hindsight required that this would be needed, and the balls to leak to the press we need a lockdown on the final day of half term. We literally just passed the perfect 2 weeks to do it. Criminal incompetence. 

If only someone could have predicted this would happen and suggested a lockdown a few weeks ago......oh wait!

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10 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I imagine it’ll be work from home.

Just looked at the tier 3 guidelines for working and it is a case of working from home if you can carry out your normal duties effectively from there.

Are we thinking that the national “lockdown” will basically just be putting the entire country in to tier 3?

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20 hours ago, mattiloy said:

We shall see but I don’t think so. If I would make a prediction I’d say labour will hemmorage around 15%-20% of their vote to greens and apathy because of this which will translate to around a 5-6 point drop in the polls. Maybe they’ll make it back up with centrists returning - who knows, I suspect it will be offset a bit - but whether they win the next election will depend on how these votes are distributed around marginals.

But I’d wager that even if he can overcome it, he’d need to rely on an SNP coalition which would come at the cost of the union.

committing to a Scottish indyref is a non-starter as a political strategy for Labour.

If they need SNP votes for a coalition, but that comes at the expense of losing their majority (because they'll lose the Scottish seats) then they only win the right to give up power shortly afterwards.

Which makes it a pointless thing to do.

Overcoming the SNP to win back Scotland is going to damned difficult as it's the same locked-in mindset supported by the same bullshit as Brexit. A strategy to do it - perhaps - might be via a constitutional convention and electoral reform, but it's definitely not done by Labour agreeing to throw away any majority for govt it might manage to have.

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1 minute ago, JoeyT said:

Just looked at the tier 3 guidelines for working and it is a case of working from home if you can carry out your normal duties effectively from there.

Are we thinking that the national “lockdown” will basically just be putting the entire country in to tier 3?

It looks like from the reports it’ll be a bit more, basically a stay at home order but non-essential shops stay open. So hospitality shut etc. 

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20 hours ago, Spindles said:

Moreover, an article that's opening paragraphs to summarize the affair states:

Corbyn established the Chakrabarti Inquiry, which concluded that the party was not "overrun by anti-Semitism or other forms of racism", although there was an "occasionally toxic atmosphere" and "clear evidence of ignorant attitudes".[1][2] The Home Affairs Select Committee of Parliament held an inquiry into antisemitism in the UK in the same year and found "no reliable, empirical evidence to support the notion that there is a higher prevalence of antisemitic attitudes within the Labour Party than any other political party"

Hardly a damning condemnation or example of evidence to support the claims.  This matter has been used as a stick to beat the left. There is absolutely no denying, in my eyes, that Corbyn's statement accurately represented reality.  None whatsoever.

Corbyn established the Charibarti inquiry and it published in 2016. Following it's publication Corbyn said he was dealing with the problem.

Nowadays, Corbyn himself says he sorted out the problems in 2018.

How well do you think he was dealing with it in those 2 years of doing nothing? ;) 

As for how big the problem was, it was big enough to cause all of the fuss that it has and that means it was too big.

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19 hours ago, mattiloy said:

Everybody has their bias. A fair number of people on here are a little centrist dad ish and nothing wrong with it, the older you get and more institutionalised you get the more insecure you become about change. Its as much a threat as an opportunity even if needed. You are comfortable and you owe it at least in part to the inherent disequilibrium in the system. Me too. If the borders were opened completely there is probably a line of indian phd students who could happily do my job cheaper, better and more enthusiastically than me. But I’m not afraid of the challenge. I back myself to adapt to whatever new world awaits. Maybe I will feel differently when I’m older and more tired.

But your bias also informs your take on Corbyn. I know that there are a lot of pro Corbyn voters, particularly youngsters, who will viscerally feel this injustice and Will be switched off from now - either disengaged completely or will defect. Whether This is ameliorated by the gains in the centre remains to be seen. Time will tell.

You're making the mistake of thinking there isn't bias within Corbyn supporters, and all people who criticise Corbyn's leadership are scared of change or just haters. 

A great example is how youngsters deal with Corbyn's association with IRA/SF during the height of the troubles.

This "centrist dad" (who probably is more personally aligned with Corbyn's politics than you are) has been around long enough to know that it doesn't matter a fuck whether or not Corbyn was the world's greatest misunderstood peacemaker or was always on the right side, because for a huge majority of people who lived through that time the conduct of Corbyn was traitorous, giving support to the murder of British troops - and that plays strongly into their opinions of him.

This sort of thing is repeated with Israel/Palestine, nukes, his general anti-britishness (example: salisbury novichok), etc, etc, etc.

In a democracy there's no point having a leader who's views are out of step with majority opinion on soooo many things. 

Victory within the UK electoral system requires coalition and compromise. And solidarity.

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17 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

committing to a Scottish indyref is a non-starter as a political strategy for Labour.

If they need SNP votes for a coalition, but that comes at the expense of losing their majority (because they'll lose the Scottish seats) then they only win the right to give up power shortly afterwards.

Which makes it a pointless thing to do.

Overcoming the SNP to win back Scotland is going to damned difficult as it's the same locked-in mindset supported by the same bullshit as Brexit. A strategy to do it - perhaps - might be via a constitutional convention and electoral reform, but it's definitely not done by Labour agreeing to throw away any majority for govt it might manage to have.

Yeah. If they held indyref2 in the middle of the term and had a transition period until the end then at least they would complete a Parliament but agreed, if the union breaks up then labour really need to secure electoral reform beforehand. Which actually makes me wonder if the tories won’t grant an indyref2 themselves before labour get that chance.

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32 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

It looks like from the reports it’ll be a bit more, basically a stay at home order but non-essential shops stay open. So hospitality shut etc. 

Shutting pubs in the build-up to Christmas? I think they’ll do the whole only go if you have a ‘substantial’ meal (with members of your own household) to keep the Wetherspoon Catweazel happy? Can’t see them providing any more support to businesses...

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3 minutes ago, Ryan1984 said:

Shutting pubs in the build-up to Christmas? I think they’ll do the whole only go if you have a ‘substantial’ meal (with members of your own household) to keep the Wetherspoon Catweazel happy? Can’t see them providing any more support to businesses...

I'm looking forwards to hearing the bullshit Spaffer's going to have to use to avoid him saying it's a crisis of his own making.

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9 minutes ago, Ryan1984 said:

Shutting pubs in the build-up to Christmas? I think they’ll do the whole only go if you have a ‘substantial’ meal (with members of your own household) to keep the Wetherspoon Catweazel happy? Can’t see them providing any more support to businesses...

If the reports are correct then this lockdown would be for a month ending at the start of December. Which would get the round the Christmas build up but then you have the issue of how to end a lockdown etc. 

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1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

You're making the mistake of thinking there isn't bias within Corbyn supporters, and all people who criticise Corbyn's leadership are scared of change or just haters. 

A great example is how youngsters deal with Corbyn's association with IRA/SF during the height of the troubles.

This "centrist dad" (who probably is more personally aligned with Corbyn's politics than you are) has been around long enough to know that it doesn't matter a fuck whether or not Corbyn was the world's greatest misunderstood peacemaker or was always on the right side, because for a huge majority of people who lived through that time the conduct of Corbyn was traitorous, giving support to the murder of British troops - and that plays strongly into their opinions of him.

This sort of thing is repeated with Israel/Palestine, nukes, his general anti-britishness (example: salisbury novichok), etc, etc, etc.

In a democracy there's no point having a leader who's views are out of step with majority opinion on soooo many things. 

Victory within the UK electoral system requires coalition and compromise. And solidarity.

Sure there is bias amongst Corbyn supporters too but all i’m saying is that the centrists also suffer this myopia- they see what they dislike in Corbyn and assume that these are the reasons he didnt get elected when it isnt that simple.
 

Then the ’dad’ element - just refers to the patronising way that these beliefs are put across - exactly the seen it all before thing. My own dad made his mind up about Corbyn on the day of his election, the same as most of the PLP and that is a major reason that he didnt succeed as a leader - how can you lead those who wont be lead?

As for IRA/Palestine stuff - I think being detached in time from them, younger folks see these conflicts through a more historic lens - we didnt see it on the news so we read yes, the IRA and Hamas blew stuff up, killed civilians, very bad of course, and so did the UVF and the IDF. But thats war. The origins of both of those conflicts are the confiscation of land by a dominant power and the establishment of an apartheid system on sectarian bases. Its little wonder that left wingers fall in on the side of the opressed.

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16 minutes ago, mattiloy said:

Sure there is bias amongst Corbyn supporters too but all i’m saying is that the centrists also suffer this myopia- they see what they dislike in Corbyn and assume that these are the reasons he didnt get elected when it isnt that simple.
 

Then the ’dad’ element - just refers to the patronising way that these beliefs are put across - exactly the seen it all before thing. My own dad made his mind up about Corbyn on the day of his election, the same as most of the PLP and that is a major reason that he didnt succeed as a leader - how can you lead those who wont be lead?

As for IRA/Palestine stuff - I think being detached in time from them, younger folks see these conflicts through a more historic lens - we didnt see it on the news so we read yes, the IRA and Hamas blew stuff up, killed civilians, very bad of course, and so did the UVF and the IDF. But thats war. The origins of both of those conflicts are the confiscation of land by a dominant power and the establishment of an apartheid system on sectarian bases. Its little wonder that left wingers fall in on the side of the opressed.

you should listen to your father.

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12 minutes ago, mattiloy said:

Sure there is bias amongst Corbyn supporters too but all i’m saying is that the centrists also suffer this myopia- they see what they dislike in Corbyn and assume that these are the reasons he didnt get elected when it isnt that simple.
 

Then the ’dad’ element - just refers to the patronising way that these beliefs are put across - exactly the seen it all before thing. My own dad made his mind up about Corbyn on the day of his election, the same as most of the PLP and that is a major reason that he didnt succeed as a leader - how can you lead those who wont be lead?

You mean like Corbyn, who continually broke the whip? ;)

And was it patronising to know how it would play out, or was it correct and accurate?

One side got it wrong, and even now try to deflect that with some self serving twaddle.

 

12 minutes ago, mattiloy said:

As for IRA/Palestine stuff - I think being detached in time from them, younger folks see these conflicts through a more historic lens - we didnt see it on the news so we read yes, the IRA and Hamas blew stuff up, killed civilians, very bad of course, and so did the UVF and the IDF. But thats war. The origins of both of those conflicts are the confiscation of land by a dominant power and the establishment of an apartheid system on sectarian bases. Its little wonder that left wingers fall in on the side of the opressed.

When trying to win an election it doesn't matter how right you are, it instead matters whether you can get others to agree with you.

It was blindingly obvious that general sentiment is in a very different place than Corbyn's take on things. And that matters.

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