When will this shit end?

[Havors]

2 minutes ago, Chapple12345 said:

This is where I get so confused, there are hundred of reports telling us cases are rising e.g. today's 100,000 infections report, but then you get reports like this saying cases are falling. Add to this last weeks report of the R rate falling and now today they say it could be double. It just doesn't make sense and makes me feel rather disillusioned about the situation 

Its a nightmare isnt it haha! I think you have to take it all with a pinch of salt. Question the motivations of who's making the reports.. whether its doom-mongers, covid deniers or doctors/scientists with vested interests.  

I think im going to lean away from projections and models as they are working on all kinds of assumptions. Maybe stick to actual real data from ONS, PHE and RCGP etc... 

[Ozanne]

5 minutes ago, Chapple12345 said:

This is where I get so confused, there are hundred of reports telling us cases are rising e.g. today's 100,000 infections report, but then you get reports like this saying cases are falling. Add to this last weeks report of the R rate falling and now today they say it could be double. It just doesn't make sense and makes me feel rather disillusioned about the situation 

Well last time round 4 weeks ago, the REACT study showed prevalence was rising and because of the low case numbers at the time it was scoffed at. A week later and it was proved to be correct, which is why I trust their next study to be accurate as well. 

[zero000]

Feel very fortunate to be living in Wales currently. A functioning track and trace system, which hasn't been outsourced to Serco and a circuit break lockdown, when the prevalence is much lower than large parts of the rest of the UK. This is what competent governance looks like.

[Lycra]

3 minutes ago, Havors said:

I think im going to lean away from projections and models as they are working on all kinds of assumptions. Maybe stick to actual real data from ONS, PHE and RCGP etc... 

You'll be surprised how accurate the models have been.

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, zero000 said:

Feel very fortunate to be living in Wales currently. A functioning track and trace system, which hasn't been outsourced to Serco and a circuit break lockdown, when the prevalence is much lower than large parts of the rest of the UK. This is what competent governance looks like.

I think you need to borrow the username mr tease  

[Chapple12345]

4 minutes ago, Havors said:

Its a nightmare isnt it haha! I think you have to take it all with a pinch of salt. Question the motivations of who's making the reports.. whether its doom-mongers, covid deniers or doctors/scientists with vested interests.  

I think im going to lean away from projections and models as they are working on all kinds of assumptions. Maybe stick to actual real data from ONS, PHE and RCGP etc... 

I'm always taking it with a pinch of salt, even if I completely agree with the viewpoint - its just hard to know who or what to believe anymore, especially as you say when everyone seems to have their own agenda and ideas of the perfect way to deal with it

[zahidf]

From Merkel's speech

 

Preparations for coronavirus vaccinations in Germany are underway and the government is working on ethical guidelines on who vaccines should be available for, said Merkel.

[Havors]

5 minutes ago, zero000 said:

Feel very fortunate to be living in Wales currently. A functioning track and trace system, which hasn't been outsourced to Serco and a circuit break lockdown, when the prevalence is much lower than large parts of the rest of the UK. This is what competent governance looks like.

Well you are a live experiment... we will see how competent it was in a few weeks from now 😀 Glad someone has done it so we can get some data. 

[zahidf]

Interesting.  UK lockdown was more stringent than other countries

 

[Fuzzy Afro]

Terrorist attack in above. Woman decapitated. 

[Fuzzy Afro]

Death toll of three including two beheadings. Let’s hope the attacker was the third. 

[Crazyfool01]

Balls  not edd ... Bobby 

Bobby Ball: Cannon & Ball star dies aged 76 after Covid-19 diagnosis https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-54731384

[zahidf]

 

[steviewevie]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

Still no one from government appearing on BBC Today to talk about all this because Cummings/Johnson think they are remainer biased. Unbelievable.

well...I got this wrong...Jenrick was on Today shortly after me posting this.

[Ozanne]

45 minutes ago, Lycra said:

You'll be surprised how accurate the models have been.

It was very accurate a month ago. We are already seeing the same comments, such as it’s an over-exaggeration on ZOE etc. These were the same things that were said a month ago and the study was proven right a week later when case as they did. I went through the study and looked that data myself. The answers were right there.

Edited October 29, 2020 by Ozanne

[shoptildrop]

https://www.dallasobserver.com/arts/dallas-police-keep-showing-up-to-check-on-one-neighbors-halloween-bloodbath-11958443

Interesting Halloween decor 😅

[zahidf]

 

[steviewevie]

Vaccine news is something positive to look forward to, but that is months away in reality.... meanwhile need to sort out current issue of rising cases everywhere which will mean rising hospitalisations and deaths in the weeks and months ahead.

[gmb1992]

3 minutes ago, shoptildrop said:

https://www.dallasobserver.com/arts/dallas-police-keep-showing-up-to-check-on-one-neighbors-halloween-bloodbath-11958443

Interesting Halloween decor 😅

Woah! 

[onthebeach]

1 hour ago, Chapple12345 said:

This is where I get so confused, there are hundred of reports telling us cases are rising e.g. today's 100,000 infections report, but then you get reports like this saying cases are falling. Add to this last weeks report of the R rate falling and now today they say it could be double. It just doesn't make sense and makes me feel rather disillusioned about the situation 

What I’m struggling to understand with the 100,000 figure - isn’t that the estimate given back in March when there were minimal restrictions? Surely even with a % of the public not following the ‘rules’ there are more measures in place now. So does this mean the infection level was far higher in March or the latest figures are overestimated?

[steviewevie]

27 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Balls  not edd ... Bobby 

Bobby Ball: Cannon & Ball star dies aged 76 after Covid-19 diagnosis https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-54731384

oh, that's sad.

[philipsteak]

6 minutes ago, shoptildrop said:

https://www.dallasobserver.com/arts/dallas-police-keep-showing-up-to-check-on-one-neighbors-halloween-bloodbath-11958443

Interesting Halloween decor 😅

If he does murder someone between now and Halloween he's git the perfect method for disposing of the body. 

[steviewevie]

A big difference between this 2nd wave and the first, is the weather...we're all going to be inside more.

[Fuzzy Afro]

Just looking at the R number over time, it doesn’t seem like the R number increased due to the relaxations in June but did go up due to a combination of pubs opening/household gatherings/schools back in July and August.

 

That suggests to me that one way to get it below 1 whilst still protecting mental health and the economy would be to return to the June lockdown as opposed to the March lockdown. 
 

Broadly this would mean:

 

- Work from home if you can

- If you cannot work from home, you SHOULD go to work unless your workplace is forced to close

- All hospitality, leisure and gyms closed. Overnight stays banned.

- Non-essential retail can stay open but all retail must return to 2m social distancing with one way systems and queueing systems. These have been dropped in favour of masks but I personally would prefer it if these measures were used as well as masks.

- Public transport only to be used if absolutely necessary

- No mixing of households indoors (apart from childcare or support bubbles)

- Households can mix in outdoor public places in groups of no more than 6.

- People can take unlimited amounts of outdoor exercise and can drive to anywhere in England to do so.

[onthebeach]

2 hours ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Well Tier 3 isn't kicking in yet in Manchester:

 

Trying to bring a little positivity here - that is dated w/e 24th October and Tier 3 was only in force from the 23rd October - I think with the lag from incubation/positive test results it’s about 2 weeks before results will show?