When will this shit end?

[steviewevie]

When get actual news about vaccine roll out government need to make sure get messaging right...otherwise there will be a lot of people thinking it's all over it's time to party. Messaging needs to be follow the guidelines etc., and there is light at end of tunnel, but we have to get there in one piece etc.

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, zero000 said:

Bit of baseless speculation for you here. I had my flu vaccine last week ( I work in healthcare) and the nurse told me to take a note of my vaccine date as there needs to be 28 days between the flu and Covid vaccines .  She also told me they were expecting a vaccine for healthcare workers in November or December and they’d been told to inform staff of this.  

 

Appreciate that this is the NHS equivalent of “My cousin’s husbands’ colleague is Michael’s great nephew and he says Led Zeppelin are headlining”, but some potentially good news at least  

 

 

Good news I’ve got mine tomorow ... I’m looking forward to led zep aswell 

[steviewevie]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

Fake news.

(I hope your kids are ok)

I mean it's half term at moment, and as far as I know my kid doesn't have to self isolate, but she knows plenty that do...and they're supposed to be doing the all important mock GCSEs when they go back next week that they have extra pressure to work hard for incase GCSEs don't happen next summer...

It's such a mess everywhere. Stupid fuckin virus.

(on my 2nd G&T)

[zahidf]

New paper which says that antibody immunity is robust after 5 months.

 

Interested in your thoughts @Toilet Duck

[Toilet Duck]

28 minutes ago, jannybruck said:

@Toilet Duck apologies for the potentially stupid question but where and how does the data for this sort of thing get unbound/published? I've been very exhausted with the vaccine speculation/leaks/non-stories in the media every day to keep this story going, so I presume there's an official channel this is released through rather than it being done via the press?

It will all be published in one of the top medical journals...New England Journal of Medicine/Lancet...but, it needs to be peer reviewed before that happens, so actually, information in the press usually precedes the actual scientific publication! The leaks come from people close to the trials indicating something is on the horizon and when distribution logistics are being told to stand by their beds (to use the correct term for this forum!), then that too suggests a move is coming. Coupled with known accrual rates and projections of when the required events should happen by, all signs point to us getting close to something concrete in the next short while. But, they could look at the data, think it’s not strong enough and hold off til the next planned interim analysis (at which point, we stand down...but all 3 front runners are hitting this point now). 

[rascalpete]

11 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Yeah, they all have interim analyses built into their protocols. The 3 front runners have somewhere between 150 and 165 events as the end point of their trial, and have various interim looks at the data planned. The Oxford trial is the most conservative, the one and only IA is scheduled for half way through (75 events), and depending on the efficacy of the vaccine, this may be enough to give a strong enough signal to apply for emergency use until they complete the entire trial. They also have a different treatment vs control structure to the other trials (2:1 rather than 1:1 for Pfizer and Moderna...this also means a longer wait for events (if the vaccine is working!), but gives a greater study population to pick up adverse events in). But, Oxford started first, so the timing of that first interim analysis about now seems right. Pfizer has its first IA at 32 events (with 3 more planned after that, and has a data release scheduled for the 3rd week in November...whether that’s their first or second IA, we don’t know). None of the vaccine trials have said how many events they have had yet, they are just all hinting they are close! 

That’s for this very detailed explanation, so is it a case of them publishing data for analysts to look at and make the decision of whether to grant EUA or not or do we have to wait a few weeks once the events have happened for Oxford to write a report/journal to present etc?

 

edit - just saw your most recent post which answered mine too, thank you!!!

Edited October 28, 2020 by rascalpete

[eFestivals]

4 hours ago, steviewevie said:

Maybe they should just leave over 80s with covid at home to get on with it.

They are, same as they did in the first wave.

Have you looked at the hospital admissions when split by age?

[Suprefan]

 

[Toilet Duck]

1 minute ago, rascalpete said:

That’s for this very detailed explanation, so is it a case of them publishing data for analysts to look at and make the decision of whether to grant EUA or not or do we have to wait a few weeks once the events have happened for Oxford to write a report/journal to present etc?

No, straight to the regulators, probably a week or so to turnaround within the company. Publication would come later (interim analyses are usually not published, often presented at conferences, but the publication usually comes when the trial is completed). 

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

Track and Trace failing in Germany.

[parsonjack]

10 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

No, straight to the regulators, probably a week or so to turnaround within the company. Publication would come later (interim analyses are usually not published, often presented at conferences, but the publication usually comes when the trial is completed). 

Just as long as they don't green-light it before the US polls close on Tuesday please 😬

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

Track and Trace failing in Germany.

Wonder how the figures compare with ours ... I suspect her definition of failure would be world leading here 

[eFestivals]

2 minutes ago, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

Track and Trace failing in Germany.

And in the UK, with clinical roles now filled by untrained teenagers on minimum wage.

See George monbiot at the Guardian for details.

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

Just now, crazyfool1 said:

Wonder how the figures compare with ours ... I suspect her definition of failure would be world leading here 

A good friend of mine who lives in Germany has always said it's not the cornerstone of efficiency we think of it as being from the UK. 

His neighbour had all the classic symptoms of Covid in March couldn't get a tested ended up in hospital turns out he has Covid. Granted this is anecdotal but it's interesting to hear it from folk that live there. 

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

1 minute ago, eFestivals said:

And in the UK, with clinical roles now filled by untrained teenagers on minimum wage.

See George monbiot at the Guardian for details.

Yep I saw that - bonkers. 

Wasn't defending our track and trace just pointing out were not alone it it being overwhelmed. 

More of it being farmed out the Local Authorities now. 

[philipsteak]

5 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

And in the UK, with clinical roles now filled by untrained teenagers on minimum wage.

See George monbiot at the Guardian for details.

Saw that. Imagine how much more it would've cost if they employed actual qualified people at the advertised £17/hr

[Lizzim]

1 hour ago, parsonjack said:

Just bought a Christmas tree....and apparently they're flying out at present.

Form an orderly queue for upvotes please 😉

Me too, I promised my husband he can put it up when it arrives. Mid November🎄

[Mr.Tease]

4 hours ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

So now we have

 

Tier 1

Tier 1+
Tier 2

Tier 3

Tier 3 with additional restrictions

Minister’s discussing tier 4.

The new “simplified” system is turning into a farce. I think there’s a case made to just have two levels.

 

Level 1: Rule of 6, social distancing, 10pm curfew etc

Level 2: Full lockdown and stay at home order

 

Feels like all the interim steps just fuck over the economy and mental health without really suppressing the virus 

We certainly seem to be going for the worst-of-both worlds 'strategy'! To add insult to injury regarding the ever increasing tiers: we're now, what, 8 months into this and they're still just fathoming out different tier classifications- they had all summer to work this out! Why did they even end up with a tier system in which the top tier measures weren't even enough to stop or decrease infections?! 

[zahidf]

 

[Ozanne]

4 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

We certainly seem to be going for the worst-of-both worlds 'strategy'! To add insult to injury regarding the ever increasing tiers: we're now, what, 8 months into this and they're still just fathoming out different tier classifications- they had all summer to work this out! Why did they even end up with a tier system in which the top tier measures weren't even enough to stop or decrease infections?! 

I’m still trying to work out where tier 1 plus has appeared from? 😆 They have managed to cock up a simple 3 tier system. Unbelievable.

[Mr.Tease]

4 hours ago, Spindles said:

With the confusion of the tier 1+ muddying the waters of the covid rating system I propose a more appropriate scale of measurement.

If you google it, there are a disturbing number of Bristol stool chart cakes out there

[Mr.Tease]

3 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I’m still trying to work out where tier 1 plus has appeared from? 😆 They have managed to cock up a simple 3 tier system. Unbelievable.

I know, the fact that they can't even work out a simple tier chart amongst themselves, does not bode well!🤦‍♂️

[Crazyfool01]

5 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I’m still trying to work out where tier 1 plus has appeared from? 😆 They have managed to cock up a simple 3 tier system. Unbelievable.

Neil has requested it ...  

[parsonjack]

4 minutes ago, Mr.Tease said:

If you google it, there are a disturbing number of Bristol stool chart cakes out there

Haha...some are clearly more appetising than others....🤮

[Fuzzy Afro]

Germany “national lockdown” is less strict than our tier 3