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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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3 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Just to build on this it does appear cases in Scotland are starting to fall going by the data on the government site. Its early sure but signs their lockdown could be working.

 

Screenshot 2020-10-27 at 17.02.54.png

Got to note that their “circuit break” is basically equivalent to tiers 2 and 3 in England, so it’s encouraging if falls can be seen without actually going any stricter than tier 3 :) 

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2 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Got to note that their “circuit break” is basically equivalent to tiers 2 and 3 in England, so it’s encouraging if falls can be seen without actually going any stricter than tier 3 :) 

I mean not really, they’ve shut indoor dining completely haven’t they? We still have all establishments open who sell food... including spoons.

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22 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Also as Peston points out, the death rate just doesn’t make sense compared to the infection rates both in terms of the official numbers and the prevalence studies. Either we have a really unhealthy population that’s screwing us a bit, some kind human error is in play, or we are missing lots of cases even in the prevalence studies. 

I think we are missing a lot of cases. Today’s positive rate was close to 10%.

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6 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-10-27/pfizer-enrolls-over-42-000-patients-for-covid-19-vaccine-trial?__twitter_impression=true
 

 

@Toilet Duck - This saying Pfizer hasn’t even seen 32 events yet, well short of the required 150? Can we forget that one being approved before Christmas? 

The 150 is the final readout of the trial, needed to show 50% efficacy. If a signal on efficacy is there earlier, they’ll use it to ask for emergency use and the better the efficacy, the fewer events needed to see a signal. They are now expecting 70-90% efficacy, but until they actually unblind the data and look, they won’t know for sure. I guess they must be getting close to the required number of events for their planned interim analysis if they have been suggesting applying for EUA as soon as the FDA will allow them to (which is just under 4 weeks away). Again, there’s still time for things to not work out for any of the candidates, but the Pfizer one looks to be still on track. The 150 wasn’t expected to be reached til about next summer. 

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1 minute ago, FestivalJamie said:

I mean not really, they’ve shut indoor dining completely haven’t they? We still have all establishments open who sell food... including spoons.

Don't, he's just trying to get a response.

Scotlands measures are tougher than tier 3 and form a kind of 'lockdown-lite' basically. Some places can stay open, indoor restaurants can be open 6 - 6 with no alcohol being sold etc. Then you have the tougher measures through the central belt. It's probably what our tier 4 would be if they brought it in. From the data though it does appear to show very early signs of working in Scotland.

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10 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

😂

nah, it’s grand, I think about this stuff all the time anyway!

Fair do's.  If you wanna know anything about milestone payment criteria or liabilities for confidentiality breaches just give me a shout.

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37 minutes ago, onthebeach said:

The deaths reported today are so sad and horribly high even allowing for the weekend lag. Not sure if I saw this tweet on here from 2 days ago, but I have been thinking that deaths have been high for the last 2 weeks

 

I think this tweet was posted, but this is an interesting point. If fatality rates are supposed to be lower now then surely it just means a lot of cases are being missed and case numbers are actually considerably higher?

Edited by Zoo Music Girl
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3 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

I think this tweet was posted, but this is an interesting point. If fatality rates are supposed to br lower now then surely it just means a lot of cases are being missed and case numbers are actually considerably higher?

I really  hope it’s missing cases or it looks like we are not doing as well as we were hoping on the fatality rate what with all the new therapeutics/procedures that are now in place since March/April 

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6 minutes ago, Leyrulion said:

Massive increase in testing today. 

Capacity is over 568,000 including anti body tests. Not counting antibody tests puts them at 447k. 

They could pass 500k PCR tests on its own soon.

This is just false?

There is an increase in testing capacity.

The actual tests processed was down to 261,855.

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With the big testing increases (40% up since October 1st just for the virus), positive news about vaccines coming imminently, plans for even further mass testing I'm feeling really hopeful today. 

Maybe 10 more weeks of pain to see us into the new year and we could genuinely be in a really positive situation come the start of the new year.

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1 minute ago, Leyrulion said:

With the big testing increases (40% up since October 1st just for the virus), positive news about vaccines coming imminently, plans for even further mass testing I'm feeling really hopeful today. 

Maybe 10 more weeks of pain to see us into the new year and we could genuinely be in a really positive situation come the start of the new year.

The positivity rate was almost 10% today, the highest it’s been probably since the spring. I don’t personally take any good news from that.

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1 minute ago, FestivalJamie said:

The positivity rate was almost 10% today, the highest it’s been probably since the spring. I don’t personally take any good news from that.

Good to see you around here again mate, hope the new job's going well.

Whilst I agree with you to an extent there is plenty to be positive about today. Testing capacity is up to a huge level, vaccine movement can be seen from many different places and we are nearing the festive season. I know it looks tough out there and it is but trust me there's loads to be hopeful about!

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Just now, FestivalJamie said:

The positivity rate was almost 10% today, the highest it’s been probably since the spring. I don’t personally take any good news from that.

perhaps its time to look at some of the positives then ? there are some positives out there .... lots of shit to get bogged down in too .... but we need to give ourselves some crumbs of hope to cling onto as humans otherwise we dont help ourselves .... 

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3 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

perhaps its time to look at some of the positives then ? there are some positives out there .... lots of shit to get bogged down in too .... but we need to give ourselves some crumbs of hope to cling onto as humans otherwise we dont help ourselves .... 

Like the huge increases in capacity today.

Signs of the virus slowing in Scotland. 

Positive vaccine news

Potentially THREE working vaccines in the next 6 weeks.

Slowing of cases at universities

 

Not reason to get carried away but reasons for optimism.

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3 minutes ago, Leyrulion said:

Like the huge increases in capacity today.

Signs of the virus slowing in Scotland. 

Positive vaccine news

Potentially THREE working vaccines in the next 6 weeks.

Slowing of cases at universities

 

Not reason to get carried away but reasons for optimism.

that capacity increase might be able to be used for getting students home safely for xmas maybe .... ? hopefully it can be made use of and won't be used because of increased infection rates elsewhere ..... 

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19 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

This is just false?

There is an increase in testing capacity.

The actual tests processed was down to 261,855.

261,855 tests processed is yesterday’s figure.  No published figure I can find for today so all to play for with the increased capacity today. 

Edited by parsonjack
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