When will this shit end?

[Ozanne]

A large rise in deaths recorded of 367, which is the highest since 27th May. That's really sad  

[steviewevie]

The end is nigh.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/oct/27/sleeping-giant-arctic-methane-deposits-starting-to-release-scientists-find

[Ozanne]

14 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

I've made the mistake of reading some of the comments to that Tweet. What an absolute dumpster fire that is.

[Fuzzy Afro]

Some absolutely horrific death numbers today 

[parsonjack]

8 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

The end is nigh.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/oct/27/sleeping-giant-arctic-methane-deposits-starting-to-release-scientists-find

Not wishing to play down the importance of this, but strictly speaking, the 'end' has been 'nigh' since the planet first formed.

[Ozanne]

19 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

As I said a few days ago 20,000 plateaux in cases ... seems like that seems to be happening at the moment ... 

It does seem to be slowing down. Part of me is thinking are we nearing something like the eye of the storm where measures in some tier 2 and 3 areas are having an effect however some areas still in tier 1 are starting to rise fastest now. So could those areas soon take over and push the infection rate further? This article could back that up, as 11 areas saw their infection rates doubled however only 1 was in tier 2. 

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/uk-areas-coronavirus-infection-rate-doubled-162348031.html

 

Edit - Just to add that it looks like Scotland and Wales infections have slowed down a fair amount, whereas in England not so much. Those areas have tightened restrictions, that will be really interesting to see the comparison as we go on.

Edited October 27, 2020 by Ozanne

[steviewevie]

2 minutes ago, parsonjack said:

Not wishing to play down the importance of this, but strictly speaking, the 'end' has been 'nigh' since the planet first formed.

well, strictly speaking...the end isn't nigh...it's ages away...but abrupt climate change which kills many species on this planet is nigh.

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

It does seem to be slowing down. Part of me is thinking are we nearing something like the eye of the storm where measures in some tier 2 and 3 areas are having an effect however some areas still in tier 1 are starting to rise fastest now. So could those areas soon take over and push the infection rate further? This article could back that up, as 11 areas saw their infection rates doubled however only 1 was in tier 2. 

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/uk-areas-coronavirus-infection-rate-doubled-162348031.html

That edit must have added some numbers ... it was below 20,000 before I’m sure .... fingers crossed for that slow down to show some decrease ... we don’t seem to have the same increase as France ... but we don’t seem to have taken the same drastic measures as France either 

[onthebeach]

If there is one thing that the UK government has got right it is the pre-ordering of 6 contenders in the vaccine race for use in the UK along with joining COVAX. I am sure that I’ve read somewhere there are detailed plans for the distribution and administering the vaccines. Please don’t let us fall at the final hurdle! 

 

https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3226

 

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.devex.com/news/uk-joins-covax-scheme-on-deadline-day-98132/amp

[Ozanne]

2 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

That edit must have added some numbers ... it was below 20,000 before I’m sure .... fingers crossed for that slow down to show some decrease ... we don’t seem to have the same increase as France ... but we don’t seem to have taken the same drastic measures as France either 

Sorry, what do you mean, the edit added some numbers?

[Chapple12345]

4 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

It does seem to be slowing down. Part of me is thinking are we nearing something like the eye of the storm where measures in some tier 2 and 3 areas are having an effect however some areas still in tier 1 are starting to rise fastest now. So could those areas soon take over and push the infection rate further? This article could back that up, as 11 areas saw their infection rates doubled however only 1 was in tier 2. 

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/uk-areas-coronavirus-infection-rate-doubled-162348031.html

 

Edit - Just to add that it looks like Scotland and Wales infections have slowed down a fair amount, whereas in England not so much. Those areas have tightened restrictions, that will be really interesting to see the comparison as we go on.

It would match the decreased R rate from last week if this was the case, I suppose we'll see this week if it decreases again. 

Also I agree it will be interesting to see how it differs between the 4 countries and all regions when we're all facing different restrictions

[Crazyfool01]

Here is another question for @Toilet Duck will they use all the vaccines if they prove to be successfull ? Or will they just use the best one and dump the rest ... or pass the others to other countries ...  or will we still require more to be produced given that we might need a couple of doses of them 

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

Sorry, what do you mean, the edit added some numbers?

I put that it was less than 20,000 as that’s what I read ... I must be losing the plot ... as it says 22,885 ... or it has updated or numbers have been added on an edit 

[steviewevie]

6 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Here is another question for @Toilet Duck will they use all the vaccines if they prove to be successfull ? Or will they just use the best one and dump the rest ... or pass the others to other countries ...  or will we still require more to be produced given that we might need a couple of doses of them 

surely they will all be used, as will more that become available throughout next year and beyond?

[onthebeach]

The deaths reported today are so sad and horribly high even allowing for the weekend lag. Not sure if I saw this tweet on here from 2 days ago, but I have been thinking that deaths have been high for the last 2 weeks

 

[Ozanne]

3 minutes ago, Chapple12345 said:

It would match the decreased R rate from last week if this was the case, I suppose we'll see this week if it decreases again. 

Also I agree it will be interesting to see how it differs between the 4 countries and all regions when we're all facing different restrictions

So comparing the movement in cases from today and this day last week (yes I am a nerd & this is just rough work so not the be all):

England: +10.19% - Tier, local restrictions.

Scotland: -8.86% - Circuit break national lockdown since 7th October.

Wales: +5.14% - Fire break national lockdown since 23rd October.

 

Just now, crazyfool1 said:

I put that it was less than 20,000 as that’s what I read ... I must be losing the plot ... as it says 22,885 ... or it has updated or numbers have been added on an edit 

I think you saw the numbers just as they were updating, you aren't losing the plot just yet!

[incident]

Just now, crazyfool1 said:

Here is another question for @Toilet Duck will they use all the vaccines if they prove to be successfull ? Or will they just use the best one and dump the rest ... or pass the others to other countries ...  or will we still require more to be produced given that we might need a couple of doses of them 

I'm not @Toilet Duck, but I think that's pretty much asking how long a potential future piece of string is.. it'll most likely depend quite a bit on when the approval comes for each of the leading candidates, the availability of them over the required timeframe, and the specific merits and drawbacks of each.

For example hypothetically some vaccines could be very effective for <40 year olds but useless for people past 60, while at the same time some could be the exact opposite.

My guess is that 10 years from now it'll probably have settled down to 1-3 in active use (and quite possibly those won't be the same ones we get approved in the next 6 months), but short term it'll be more of a judgement call based on the above.

[Toilet Duck]

9 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Here is another question for @Toilet Duck will they use all the vaccines if they prove to be successfull ? Or will they just use the best one and dump the rest ... or pass the others to other countries ...  or will we still require more to be produced given that we might need a couple of doses of them 

They’ll all be used! Some countries will get more of one. I think the UK will be well set up to vaccinate everyone that wants one, will take longer for the EU to organise (was probably a good decision to go it alone on this for the UK, even though the government got a lot of stick for it at the time). What we do need to do as we use different vaccines in different populations is actually keep track of how they perform. If a clear signal emerges further example that the Oxford one is great in old folk, but the Pfizer one isn’t, then the sensible thing would be to target different populations with different vaccines. There’s a worry that this kind of information could get lost in the rush to protect everyone, so it will require a bit of organisation in the roll out. But any vaccine that works will be used (we have various flu vaccines for example, and we use them all). 

[Fuzzy Afro]

34 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

A large rise in deaths recorded of 367, which is the highest since 27th May. That's really sad  

Also as Peston points out, the death rate just doesn’t make sense compared to the infection rates both in terms of the official numbers and the prevalence studies. Either we have a really unhealthy population that’s screwing us a bit, some kind human error is in play, or we are missing lots of cases even in the prevalence studies. 

[Quark]

Just now, Toilet Duck said:

They’ll all be used! Some countries will get more of one. I think the UK will be well set up to vaccinate everyone that wants one, will take longer for the EU to organise (was probably a good decision to go it alone on this for the UK, even though the government got a lot of stick for it at the time). What we do need to do as we use different vaccines in different populations is actually keep track of how they perform. If a clear signal emerges further example that the Oxford one is great in old folk, but the Pfizer one isn’t, then the sensible thing would be to target different populations with different vaccines. There’s a worry that this kind of information could get lost in the rush to protect everyone, so it will require a bit of organisation in the roll out. But any vaccine that works will be used (we have various flu vaccines for example, and we use them all). 

Is this not a bit of a busman's holiday for you TD?  It's amazingly helpful to read your posts, but I kind of imagine it'd be like me coming onto a festival forum and answering endless questions about IT contracts!

Obviously if the time comes* when that information is as useful and in demand to the population at large I'll step up to the plate as you have

*it really won't, no-one gives a shit

[Fuzzy Afro]

6 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

So comparing the movement in cases from today and this day last week (yes I am a nerd & this is just rough work so not the be all):

England: +10.19% - Tier, local restrictions.

Scotland: -8.86% - Circuit break national lockdown since 7th October.

Wales: +5.14% - Fire break national lockdown since 23rd October.

 

I think you saw the numbers just as they were updating, you aren't losing the plot just yet!

Just to point out, Scottish numbers were unusually high last Tuesday because there was a laboratory issue over the previous weekend. I’m not sure how the 7 day average has changed since last week, but Sturgeon is pointing to a slowed doubling time but certainly not a fall in infections. 

[Crazyfool01]

6 minutes ago, Quark said:

Is this not a bit of a busman's holiday for you TD?  It's amazingly helpful to read your posts, but I kind of imagine it'd be like me coming onto a festival forum and answering endless questions about IT contracts!

Obviously if the time comes* when that information is as useful and in demand to the population at large I'll step up to the plate as you have

*it really won't, no-one gives a shit

That’s fair comment ... I wonder if TD has escaped this thread b4  

[Fuzzy Afro]

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-10-27/pfizer-enrolls-over-42-000-patients-for-covid-19-vaccine-trial?__twitter_impression=true
 

 

@Toilet Duck - This saying Pfizer hasn’t even seen 32 events yet, well short of the required 150? Can we forget that one being approved before Christmas? 

[Ozanne]

13 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

So comparing the movement in cases from today and this day last week (yes I am a nerd & this is just rough work so not the be all):

England: +10.19% - Tier, local restrictions.

Scotland: -8.86% - Circuit break national lockdown since 7th October.

Wales: +5.14% - Fire break national lockdown since 23rd October.

Just to build on this it does appear cases in Scotland are starting to fall going by the data on the government site. Its early sure but signs their lockdown could be working.

 

[Toilet Duck]

13 minutes ago, Quark said:

Is this not a bit of a busman's holiday for you TD?  It's amazingly helpful to read your posts, but I kind of imagine it'd be like me coming onto a festival forum and answering endless questions about IT contracts!

Obviously if the time comes* when that information is as useful and in demand to the population at large I'll step up to the plate as you have

*it really won't, no-one gives a shit

😂 

nah, it’s grand, I think about this stuff all the time anyway!