When will this shit end?

[ace56blaa]

Just now, Fuzzy Afro said:

I read that article and thought of you @crazyfool1!! Never for a second realised it’s actually is you 😂😂

 

Very small world because the girl Liv from Ipswich is actually a friend of a friend as well 

You have to read the small print

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, Fuzzy Afro said:

I read that article and thought of you @crazyfool1!! Never for a second realised it’s actually is you 😂😂

 

Very small world because the girl Liv from Ipswich is actually a friend of a friend as well 

it wasn't .... read my small print  .... although I could have written it easily  word for word  

[Toilet Duck]

1 hour ago, onthebeach said:

Ah - thank you so much - are the commercially available ones using very much the same testing criteria  even though the method for taking the bloods are different?

I will probably get one as an early Christmas present!

I haven’t been paying a massive amount of attention to the antibody tests as it’s become clear that they are probably of limited use to reliably see what infection levels have been like (more likely a snapshot of the last 6 months). Most of the sample at home, send vial of blood away tests use ELISA, which is how I would do it in the lab, and it what would be performed if a healthcare professional sent your blood to the lab...so yes, exactly the same, just different sample collection method. There are some that are chromatographic cassettes, I get emails about them from suppliers, however not entirely sure if the are available to the public yet (could be!). A box of 10 of those costs about €180 ex vat. 

[Toilet Duck]

1 hour ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

I'm interested in this too as I'm pretty sure my partner has had it (not so sure about me, but think it would be weird if I hadn't got it from him). We had blood taken for the ONS study last week and am now wondering if it might show up negative even if we have had it, due to the antibodies fading.

Entirely possible that antibodies could be gone. Also, believe it or not, it’s not actually as contagious as you think it is. Most studies show household contacts only get infected less than 10% of the time. This was observed at the start in Wuhan, but we weren’t really sure if it was accurate. A bunch of studies now show this. Basically, some people are just massively infectious (super-spreaders) and most people aren’t. The super-spreaders are enough to make the infection as a whole pretty contagious, but at an individual level, most people aren’t. What the difference is between very infectious people and everyone else is one of the big unanswered questions about this weird disease! (Probably a combination of biology, behaviour and environment)...

[steviewevie]

1 hour ago, Ozanne said:

We had a similar bug going round the office in Jan and all thought it was COVID. However one of the guys that was ill then picked up a bug from his wife in April and tested positive for COVID. So I guess it couldn’t have gone round our office.  

My missus caught something horrible back in late feb, she had this constant cough, shortness of breath, was out of it for a few days...all that sort of stuff, but she did have a fair amount of snot too. I also caught it I think but not as bad as her, but did have a cough I couldn't get rid of and shortness of breath too, but also some snot. But...I think there was all sorts of bad colds and bronchial bugs going round then so not sure...and will probably never know.

[steviewevie]

37 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

If anyone’s interested this is a pretty decent thread on the differences between 2020 and 2016 for the Presidential election.

 

famous last words.

[steviewevie]

26 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

surely there is a reason why turnout is looking like its gonna be massive ... 

more at stake?...maybe from both sides?

People worried about being able to vote on polling day so voting early?

Gen Z voters saving the day?

[Fuzzy Afro]

8 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

My missus caught something horrible back in late feb, she had this constant cough, shortness of breath, was out of it for a few days...all that sort of stuff, but she did have a fair amount of snot too. I also caught it I think but not as bad as her, but did have a cough I couldn't get rid of and shortness of breath too, but also some snot. But...I think there was all sorts of bad colds and bronchial bugs going round then so not sure...and will probably never know.

I had what sounds like the same thing in mid Feb, albeit I was pretty much back to normal within 36 hours of my symptom onset. I tested negative for the antibodies in August, but am now wondering if I actually did have covid. 

[efcfanwirral]

19 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

I haven’t been paying a massive amount of attention to the antibody tests as it’s become clear that they are probably of limited use to reliably see what infection levels have been like (more likely a snapshot of the last 6 months). Most of the sample at home, send vial of blood away tests use ELISA, which is how I would do it in the lab, and it what would be performed if a healthcare professional sent your blood to the lab...so yes, exactly the same, just different sample collection method. There are some that are chromatographic cassettes, I get emails about them from suppliers, however not entirely sure if the are available to the public yet (could be!). A box of 10 of those costs about €180 ex vat. 

Are you in any way worried about the fact that antibodies is being talked about so much in the press, and people in general seeming so horrified that they don't last? We all obviously know about t cells thanks to you, but do you think this focus on antibodies could have an effect on how UK politicians lift restrictions? And do you still think we'll be opening up when vulnerable are vaccinated or do you think there will be public clamour for everyone to be first?

[Radiochicken]

55 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

If anyone’s interested this is a pretty decent thread on the differences between 2020 and 2016 for the Presidential election.

 

Thanks for this!

I’m still of the mindset that Biden will win on any objective level, but Trump will still cause soooo much carnage between now and January, I still don’t see Biden being the one at inauguration as the forgone conclusion...

Theres just no scenarios I can see - even a electoral collage walloping - that has Trump conceding gracefully.

[Toilet Duck]

8 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Are you in any way worried about the fact that antibodies is being talked about so much in the press, and people in general seeming so horrified that they don't last? We all obviously know about t cells thanks to you, but do you think this focus on antibodies could have an effect on how UK politicians lift restrictions? And do you still think we'll be opening up when vulnerable are vaccinated or do you think there will be public clamour for everyone to be first?

I’m not really worried, but it’s not entirely a surprise. I guess it needs to be explained a bit better to the public in general. Antibody levels shouldn’t really impact on opening up any time soon, as we still don’t fully understand how our immune system responds to this virus (my own guess is that it’ll end up like most CoVs and we keep t-cells long term but not antibodies for any great length of time). In terms of how things open up once a vaccine is available, hospitalisations and long COVID are the main drivers of caution. Once the frontline and the most vulnerable are protected, unless our hospitals are still overwhelmed and we see large morbidity from infection, I’d expect us to get back towards normal. That can be mitigated by using both the vaccine and advance rapid testing, so I’d still expect immunity passports and test results for travel for a bit, and maybe even for high risk activities until we can vaccinate enough of the population to not have to worry anymore (well, I think we’ll still have to worry in the same way we worry about flu)...

[steviewevie]

23 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

I’m not really worried, but it’s not entirely a surprise. I guess it needs to be explained a bit better to the public in general. Antibody levels shouldn’t really impact on opening up any time soon, as we still don’t fully understand how our immune system responds to this virus (my own guess is that it’ll end up like most CoVs and we keep t-cells long term but not antibodies for any great length of time). In terms of how things open up once a vaccine is available, hospitalisations and long COVID are the main drivers of caution. Once the frontline and the most vulnerable are protected, unless our hospitals are still overwhelmed and we see large morbidity from infection, I’d expect us to get back towards normal. That can be mitigated by using both the vaccine and advance rapid testing, so I’d still expect immunity passports and test results for travel for a bit, and maybe even for high risk activities until we can vaccinate enough of the population to not have to worry anymore (well, I think we’ll still have to worry in the same way we worry about flu)...

Ok, ToiletDuck...this may be an impossible question..but what do you estimate are the timescales for all this...i.e. when do you think we'll get back to something that looks like normal?

[efcfanwirral]

50 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

I’m not really worried, but it’s not entirely a surprise. I guess it needs to be explained a bit better to the public in general. Antibody levels shouldn’t really impact on opening up any time soon, as we still don’t fully understand how our immune system responds to this virus (my own guess is that it’ll end up like most CoVs and we keep t-cells long term but not antibodies for any great length of time). In terms of how things open up once a vaccine is available, hospitalisations and long COVID are the main drivers of caution. Once the frontline and the most vulnerable are protected, unless our hospitals are still overwhelmed and we see large morbidity from infection, I’d expect us to get back towards normal. That can be mitigated by using both the vaccine and advance rapid testing, so I’d still expect immunity passports and test results for travel for a bit, and maybe even for high risk activities until we can vaccinate enough of the population to not have to worry anymore (well, I think we’ll still have to worry in the same way we worry about flu)...

Thanks  for the detailed response as always! So you reckon we're all taking it then? 

I know they're very rare, but would the rates of strange responses in the younger age ranges be seen as an acceptable risk/consequence? I know some people have odd immune responses like GBS etc to vaccines, but could even a handful of them put the risk of a vaccine higher to younger people than the virus itself? 

Edited October 27, 2020 by efcfanwirral

[Ozanne]

1 hour ago, Radiochicken said:

Thanks for this!

I’m still of the mindset that Biden will win on any objective level, but Trump will still cause soooo much carnage between now and January, I still don’t see Biden being the one at inauguration as the forgone conclusion...

Theres just no scenarios I can see - even a electoral collage walloping - that has Trump conceding gracefully.

You’re welcome.

I share those concerns, there seems nothing in Trumps DNA that would mean he is a sporting loser. The one hope is by then that the Republicans decide to reign him in so they can protect their own image!

[Lycra]

13 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Ok, ToiletDuck...this may be an impossible question..but what do you estimate are the timescales for all this...i.e. when do you think we'll get back to something that looks like normal?

This is impossible to predict as going back to normal will be based on new Covid infection rate data going forward. Having a vaccine is no guarantee infection rates will decline quickly. Indeed it could be argued we will only see a slow decline in covid infections as the initial vaccine roll out targets the vulnerable ( & healthcare workers), a group who have been most proactive in minimising their risk of infection. Furthermore, vaccine roll out could itself cause a further spike in covid 19 cases as unvaccinated people become more carefree with hygiene and social distancing etc.

[Punksnotdead]

3 hours ago, steviewevie said:

 

Thanks mate - I had a heart attack 4 weeks ago, you just nearly gave me another one!!!

[Lycra]

If Trump avoided the Draft and the Vietnam War, how come he's come into contact with so much Agent Orange 🤔

[Ozanne]

9 minutes ago, Lycra said:

This is impossible to predict as going back to normal will be based on new Covid infection rate data going forward. Having a vaccine is no guarantee infection rates will decline quickly. Indeed it could be argued we will only see a slow decline in covid infections as the initial vaccine roll out targets the vulnerable ( & healthcare workers), a group who have been most proactive in minimising their risk of infection. Furthermore, vaccine roll out could itself cause a further spike in covid 19 cases as unvaccinated people become more carefree with hygiene and social distancing etc.

How’s things at the hospital going?

[onthebeach]

2 hours ago, Toilet Duck said:

I haven’t been paying a massive amount of attention to the antibody tests as it’s become clear that they are probably of limited use to reliably see what infection levels have been like (more likely a snapshot of the last 6 months). Most of the sample at home, send vial of blood away tests use ELISA, which is how I would do it in the lab, and it what would be performed if a healthcare professional sent your blood to the lab...so yes, exactly the same, just different sample collection method. There are some that are chromatographic cassettes, I get emails about them from suppliers, however not entirely sure if the are available to the public yet (could be!). A box of 10 of those costs about €180 ex vat. 

Thank you again - I’ll check out if there any local ‘in person’ tests available 

[Lycra]

6 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

How’s things at the hospital going?

In the wrong direction. Wards filling up, deaths rising. Reflecting national trend expect a bit behind.

[Toilet Duck]

21 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Ok, ToiletDuck...this may be an impossible question..but what do you estimate are the timescales for all this...i.e. when do you think we'll get back to something that looks like normal?

Well, if all 3 early vaccines actually make it over the line (which no longer looks impossible, I’d be cautiously optimistic that they are safe and at least work a bit), then that speeds things up as we don’t have to dump masses of doses that were made at risk, instead we can use them all (so there’s probably 2-3 hundred million ready to go between them...SII has a 100m doses of the Oxford one ready to go tomorrow). Also means that only one company isn’t responsible for making the next batch to expand the programme, but all can be made at the same time (and most of them suggest they can make about 250-300m in the first half of the year, SII claim they can churn out 1.5b doses per annum, so there should be a billion+ doses of the different ones available in H1 2021). Still will need prioritisation as it’s not enough to vaccinate the whole world, but enough to put a big dent in morbidity and mortality. By next summer, the major players in the vaccine game are due to roll out their vaccines, and if repeated doses are required, then these will probably be the ones that take over. It’s not entirely fanciful to think that by Easter we could be in decent shape (not done and dusted, but a combination of Spring and a vaccine-protected frontline and vulnerable population changing the outlook a good bit)...certainly by summer, if all of these early vaccines work, I’d be surprised if things didn’t look at lot more normal. Plenty of time for something completely unexpected to turn up, but cautiously optimistic that we are entering into the endgame of how we actually deal with this in the long term. And that’s just improvements based on a vaccine, we still haven’t had the full benefit of advance rapid testing yet, but more are becoming available, so between the two advances, plenty to be cheerful about.

[Ozanne]

20 minutes ago, Lycra said:

In the wrong direction. Wards filling up, deaths rising. Reflecting national trend expect a bit behind.

😕stay strong, you guys are doing incredible work. I’m really grateful. 

[Ozanne]

Looks like people are souring on Johnson, although 34% still think he is doing well 🤪

[JoeyT]

Edited October 27, 2020 by JoeyT

[Crazyfool01]

As I said a few days ago 20,000 plateaux in cases ... seems like that seems to be happening at the moment ...