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When will this shit end?

Chrisp1986

By Chrisp1986,
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jparx
jparx

I think on a music festival message board it’s a legitimate question to ask. It doesn’t suggest the OP doesn’t give a shit about anything else. Of course there are much bigger things to be worrie

Toilet Duck
Toilet Duck

So...OX/AZ, blood clots, suspension of vaccinations, politics, vaccine hesitancy, convoluted data, PR problems, Brexit, EU procurement naivety, poor logistics, national identity...there’s an awful lot

Lycra
Lycra

A while since I/we posted because just like everyone else we get fed up of this shit. So just like to say..... For the first time since last March we are free of covid patients 😊

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onthebeach Explorer

onthebeach

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48 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Correct on both counts! After we encounter an infectious agent, once our immune system is done with it, we create memory cells that let us deal with it if it ever comes back. For some diseases, we keep a decent amount of circulating antibodies for a long time, for others, the antibody count dwindles, but our immunological memory of infection doesn’t (and we also keep some t-cells that can kill the virus). The latter seems to be a feature of most CoV infections (SARS/MERS seem to be a bit different as there are reports of much longer antibody responses). Looks like this guy is gonna fall into the same category as the endemic CoVs (which from the virus’s perspective is a win, it gets to keep reinfecting people). However, we aren’t entirely naive next time we get infected, and unless the virus has changed, our immune system will ramp up and clobber the thing pretty quickly. If the virus can keep infecting people, replicating and then moving on to a new host, then there’s no real pressure on the virus to change. Ironically, a vaccine with sterilising immunity would create that incentive to change. If SARS-CoV-2 had nowhere to go, then a sterilising vaccine would eventually wipe it out, but since it can hop back into a number of animal reservoirs, I actually think a non-sterilising vaccine might be the best thing anyway as it permits the virus to circulate, prevents most deaths and severe diseases, but doesn’t necessarily force the virus to change.
 

Anyway, short answer to your first question is that it looks like immunity in terms of antibody response is exactly as was predicted early on (transient), but yes, other parts of our immune system remember and can deal with it next time you get infected.

For the second question, the answer is we don’t know, but it is expected to last between 1-3 years. So repeated shots are probably gonna be required. The vaccine makers will be delighted! (AZ are making the Oxford one available at cost price during the pandemic (about £5 a shot), but once the pandemic is done, they can charge market rates (probably closer to the cost of a flu shot, so £20 a pop)...interestingly, Moderna got massive amounts of cash from the US government for development of their vaccine (about $1.5bn)...the contract for supplying it contains strong clauses allowing the US government to control production and control price to block any price gouging in future years. Most of the contracts with the vaccine makers aren’t public, but given the massive injections of funding they all got to move everything along so quickly, one hopes that they all contain this type of limit and keep costs down in future years. For those of us under 65, our nicely functioning t-cell response may well be enough and not require repeat shots every year or so, for older populations where t-cell responses are not as good, I suspect the repeat injections wil be required. 
 

Short answer to your second question, yes we expect vaccine-derived immunity to last longer (though not forever!). 

Thank you again for such detailed information.

Hope you don’t mind giving me your thoughts on this - I’ve tried to research as much as I can but not getting far with a more definitive answer. I’m very tempted to pay for an antibody test (Elisa?) but if I did have Covid19 some 8 months ago would my antibodies have depleted so much as to be undetectable and come back as negative? I don’t believe there is a readily available test for T cells/B memory cells which would give a more accurate result? I know that even if I get back a positive result this is no guarantee of immunity and I would continue with all social distancing/face covering/hand washing etc etc but I would really like to know - human curiosity I suppose.

Thank you again for all your input here - personally you are my go to expert for the actual facts with that great dollop of optimism. Who would have thought that a Festival/ Glastonbury forum would be the place to find someone like yourself - then again I should have known this from the amazing experiences and people I have had the privilege to meet there

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Mr.Tease Apprentice

Mr.Tease

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30 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

2020 could bring some good news

 

Hopefully they just offer a giant selection of pick'n'mix sweets, spanning the entire length of the store, plus some records

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Ozanne Grand Master

Ozanne

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10 minutes ago, Mouseboy11 said:

Have you heard of....Wilkos? :P

I might have taken advantage of their half price offers once or twice 😉

6 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Isn't it pretty bad here too?

Yeah it is but trying to look on the good side that we haven’t seen cases up near 40k like some of them. 

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Toilet Duck Proficient

Toilet Duck

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34 minutes ago, onthebeach said:

Thank you again for such detailed information.

Hope you don’t mind giving me your thoughts on this - I’ve tried to research as much as I can but not getting far with a more definitive answer. I’m very tempted to pay for an antibody test (Elisa?) but if I did have Covid19 some 8 months ago would my antibodies have depleted so much as to be undetectable and come back as negative? I don’t believe there is a readily available test for T cells/B memory cells which would give a more accurate result? I know that even if I get back a positive result this is no guarantee of immunity and I would continue with all social distancing/face covering/hand washing etc etc but I would really like to know - human curiosity I suppose.

Thank you again for all your input here - personally you are my go to expert for the actual facts with that great dollop of optimism. Who would have thought that a Festival/ Glastonbury forum would be the place to find someone like yourself - then again I should have known this from the amazing experiences and people I have had the privilege to meet there

Howdy, you’re very kind. Posting here kind of keeps me sane! (Matter of opinion!)...And yes, I’ve always found the board really informative for loads and loads of things, it’s a great place, full of great people! (just like the festival!). 
 

In terms of how accurate an antibody test will be 8 months post infection, it’s difficult to say. Positive tests have been seen at about 7 months post-infection in some studies, but I guess individual variations in how our immune systems work will have an impact on this. If you want to get one done, I would, but know that a negative result isn’t the definitive answer! Profiling immune cells is far more complicated (though maybe an opportunity for some research and development to make it easier!). There’s various different kinds of antibody test, some where a healthcare professional draws some blood, others where you do it yourself at home (they call them finger prick tests, but you need to squeeze out a good bit more than you do for a blood sugar test for example, so personally, since I’m well used to having blood drawn and needles don’t bother me, I’d get it taken properly). 

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onthebeach Explorer

onthebeach

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17 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Howdy, you’re very kind. Posting here kind of keeps me sane! (Matter of opinion!)...And yes, I’ve always found the board really informative for loads and loads of things, it’s a great place, full of great people! (just like the festival!). 
 

In terms of how accurate an antibody test will be 8 months post infection, it’s difficult to say. Positive tests have been seen at about 7 months post-infection in some studies, but I guess individual variations in how our immune systems work will have an impact on this. If you want to get one done, I would, but know that a negative result isn’t the definitive answer! Profiling immune cells is far more complicated (though maybe an opportunity for some research and development to make it easier!). There’s various different kinds of antibody test, some where a healthcare professional draws some blood, others where you do it yourself at home (they call them finger prick tests, but you need to squeeze out a good bit more than you do for a blood sugar test for example, so personally, since I’m well used to having blood drawn and needles don’t bother me, I’d get it taken properly). 

Ah - thank you so much - are the commercially available ones using very much the same testing criteria  even though the method for taking the bloods are different?

I will probably get one as an early Christmas present!

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priest17 Rising Star

priest17

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25 minutes ago, parsonjack said:

There are reports it's just a trial of 3 stores late next year.....but the owning company (Very) are apparently denying it.

Tuesday is a proper news frenzy ain't it?

It's all come from a unverified twitter account with 3k followers, I'm not dusting off my pick n mix bag off just yet...

I love the idea that a shop that people remember as being good but was killed off by it basically being useless in the end and not keeping up with the online market is opening shops exclusive to the high streets, that were doing shit long before covid and doing worse since, despite it being completely unclear where we'll be at that point but I'm having a grain of salt with this news...

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Zoo Music Girl Grand Master

Zoo Music Girl

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, onthebeach said:

Thank you again for such detailed information.

Hope you don’t mind giving me your thoughts on this - I’ve tried to research as much as I can but not getting far with a more definitive answer. I’m very tempted to pay for an antibody test (Elisa?) but if I did have Covid19 some 8 months ago would my antibodies have depleted so much as to be undetectable and come back as negative? I don’t believe there is a readily available test for T cells/B memory cells which would give a more accurate result? I know that even if I get back a positive result this is no guarantee of immunity and I would continue with all social distancing/face covering/hand washing etc etc but I would really like to know - human curiosity I suppose.

Thank you again for all your input here - personally you are my go to expert for the actual facts with that great dollop of optimism. Who would have thought that a Festival/ Glastonbury forum would be the place to find someone like yourself - then again I should have known this from the amazing experiences and people I have had the privilege to meet there

I'm interested in this too as I'm pretty sure my partner has had it (not so sure about me, but think it would be weird if I hadn't got it from him). We had blood taken for the ONS study last week and am now wondering if it might show up negative even if we have had it, due to the antibodies fading.

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