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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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1 hour ago, efcfanwirral said:

The fact there is basic maths that we can do does make you wonder how deliberate it is to push things close to capacity before taking proper action. 

Herd immunity by stealth, creating a need for a convenient lockdown around Brexit time and perhaps even ideologically driven 'survival of the fittest'. All plausible...

There are bound to be a few closet eugenicists amongst the Tory party, more than a few I would imagine would consider it a net good to "thin the herd".

For some reason whenever the subject of eugenics comes up my mind always leaps to Rees-Mogg.  You can often see the barely concealed hungry lizard grin sneaking through when he's thinking about the deaths of the economically inactive.

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22 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Immunity only lasts a few months on front page of telegraph...

Image

The article is much more equivocal than that. We've known for ages that antibodies only last a few months, but there's reason to believe that T-cells are important in being able to mount a rapid immune response and they last much longer than antibodies. This study as reported on the front page says nothing about which parts of the immune system respond to the virus.  In other words, it's not really what the headline says.

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25 minutes ago, Spindles said:

There are bound to be a few closet eugenicists amongst the Tory party, more than a few I would imagine would consider it a net good to "thin the herd".

For some reason whenever the subject of eugenics comes up my mind always leaps to Rees-Mogg.  You can often see the barely concealed hungry lizard grin sneaking through when he's thinking about the deaths of the economically inactive.

Closet my arse. A Tory society committee member in my uni days told me that the NHS should be closed, all doctors fired and private hospitals closed because  giving people access to healthcare risks weakening the genes pool if they then go on to mate. I found that viewpoint bizarre. 

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1 hour ago, BobWillis said:

Just want to make sure that people are aware these are positive cases of anyone going into hospital as an inpatient, and not hospital admissions due to covid alone?!

Yeah but that is the case with the low numbers as well so you are comparing like with like. 

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2 hours ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Some Scottish newspaper reports that London hospitals are being told to prepare for the Oxford vaccine as soon as next week. @Toilet Ducksurely this is bollocks?

Apparently not!...a number of sources have suggested that the Oxford/AZ vaccine interim data is on the horizon (they always suggested about now would be when they expected to have sufficient events...a combination of prevalence of infection and how well the vaccine works would determine this, but they had banked on about 1% of trial participants getting infected to demonstrate 50% efficacy, if the efficacy is better, then they don't need as many events (bigger effect size)). The regulators have been looking at it in real time, so are in a place to give emergency use authorisation pretty quickly. The Pfizer one has an earliest EUA date of November 21st with the FDA (since they announced on September 21st that they wanted 2 more months of follow up data), but the EMA and MHRA have never indicated a minimum date for when they might authorise the Oxford one (and their trial started earlier, so they have longer follow up data anyway). The Moderna vaccine isn't getting much press here, but it has completed its phase 3 enrolment (Pfizer and Oxford/AZ are still enrolling participants), and is due for an interim analysis only a week or two after the Pfizer one (and is pretty much the same kind of vaccine..they did build in good diversity in their accrual though, something that Pfizer had to go back and add in extra participants to cover). Anyway, it's getting to the interesting part of the early vaccine candidate development. It's possible that the NHS roll out in London is part of the ongoing Oxford/AZ phase 3 (since cases are up again in the UK), but the noises coming from the company are that they are expecting to apply for emergency use imminently, suggesting that it will be given to people outside the trial shortly. None of the vaccine makers are going to hang around, as soon as they have enough data to convince the regulators that they have a safe, efficacious vaccine, they'll apply to give it to people. 

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1 hour ago, Toilet Duck said:

Apparently not!...a number of sources have suggested that the Oxford/AZ vaccine interim data is on the horizon (they always suggested about now would be when they expected to have sufficient events...a combination of prevalence of infection and how well the vaccine works would determine this, but they had banked on about 1% of trial participants getting infected to demonstrate 50% efficacy, if the efficacy is better, then they don't need as many events (bigger effect size)). The regulators have been looking at it in real time, so are in a place to give emergency use authorisation pretty quickly. The Pfizer one has an earliest EUA date of November 21st with the FDA (since they announced on September 21st that they wanted 2 more months of follow up data), but the EMA and MHRA have never indicated a minimum date for when they might authorise the Oxford one (and their trial started earlier, so they have longer follow up data anyway). The Moderna vaccine isn't getting much press here, but it has completed its phase 3 enrolment (Pfizer and Oxford/AZ are still enrolling participants), and is due for an interim analysis only a week or two after the Pfizer one (and is pretty much the same kind of vaccine..they did build in good diversity in their accrual though, something that Pfizer had to go back and add in extra participants to cover). Anyway, it's getting to the interesting part of the early vaccine candidate development. It's possible that the NHS roll out in London is part of the ongoing Oxford/AZ phase 3 (since cases are up again in the UK), but the noises coming from the company are that they are expecting to apply for emergency use imminently, suggesting that it will be given to people outside the trial shortly. None of the vaccine makers are going to hang around, as soon as they have enough data to convince the regulators that they have a safe, efficacious vaccine, they'll apply to give it to people. 

image.gif.d1bb34fe644fe920701cc0669a62f4d9.gif

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the bad news: reports of limited-time natural immunity, meaning that people are open to re-infection after perhaps 6 months.

the good news: those that get reinfected are likely to have a less severe illness.

more good news: "The researchers say their findings do not scupper hopes of a vaccine, which may prove more effective than a real infection."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54696873

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