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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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1 minute ago, efcfanwirral said:

We can have a tier 10 but if schools stay open that R rate won't be coming down to where they want it, and we all seem to agree closing them is not an option, so we are very limited in what we can do to stop the virus spreading.

Without stricter enforcement...

Unless we take advantage of a slight extension on school holidays ? (Oops we missed that chance )  Or some kind of limiting /rota on the time kids are in schools ... without complete closure 

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55 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Frustration is rising as clampdowns spread across UK: are we in grip of Covid fatigue?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/25/frustration-is-rising-as-clampdowns-spread-across-uk-are-we-in-grip-of-covid-fatigue

I'd be surprised if there are many who aren't suffering covid fatigue.  That doesn't mean you don't accept the science and follow the guidelines, but surely everyone's sick of this shit by now.

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22 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

We can have a tier 10 but if schools stay open that R rate won't be coming down to where they want it, and we all seem to agree closing them is not an option, so we are very limited in what we can do to stop the virus spreading.

Without stricter enforcement...

Still early days as we closed the schools straight away in Ireland for the first wave, so we can’t compare with what might have happened..but, data from the current phase of the outbreak has % positive tests in school kids running at 3-4 fold lower than the general population. So far, the evidence that schools are driving community transmission doesn’t stack up (kids more likely to get infected outside school than in it). 

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1 minute ago, Toilet Duck said:

Still early days as we closed the schools straight away in Ireland for the first wave, so we can’t compare with what might have happened..but, data from the current phase of the outbreak has % positive tests in school kids running at 3-4 fold lower than the general population. So far, the evidence that schools are driving community transmission doesn’t stack up (kids more likely to get infected outside school than in it). 

Is that because kids are largely asymptomatic though? They can spread the virus between one another unnoticed and then take it home to their parents who test positive without realising it had come from little Tommy and Jane? 

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6 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Still early days as we closed the schools straight away in Ireland for the first wave, so we can’t compare with what might have happened..but, data from the current phase of the outbreak has % positive tests in school kids running at 3-4 fold lower than the general population. So far, the evidence that schools are driving community transmission doesn’t stack up (kids more likely to get infected outside school than in it). 

Then the spread must be down to stupidity and non compliance then. In the current climate of having to keep cases down it's very hard not to argue for more strict measures and enforcement. 

I know I keep saying it but I think the only way people in England will comply is if they're forced to. I don't want to see that but from a detached point of view the tier 3 thing won't work, especially as we've seen so many people and businesses looking for ways round the rules

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9 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Is that because kids are largely asymptomatic though? They can spread the virus between one another unnoticed and then take it home to their parents who test positive without realising it had come from little Tommy and Jane? 

No, we’ve tested masses of them in Ireland, the ratio of kids to adults being tested is representative of the ratio in the wider population and the number of positive tests coming back is way lower (under 2% when it’s been between 6 and 7% in the population at large. Crucially, it’s also trending downwards, suggesting it’s not driving further infections). 

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If Biden wins next Tuesday does that increase our chances of a deal with the EU? Given that a Biden government will not negotiate with the UK if we crash out without a deal and violate the GFA, that risks the UK having no trading relationship with either the USA or the EU which is unthinkable. A Trump win they could go for a no deal and then get a deal done with Trump, but if Biden wins then maybe we’d need to do a deal with the EU and then a deal with Biden. 

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8 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Then the spread must be down to stupidity and non compliance then. In the current climate of having to keep cases down it's very hard not to argue for more strict measures and enforcement. 

I know I keep saying it but I think the only way people in England will comply is if they're forced to. I don't want to see that but from a detached point of view the tier 3 thing won't work, especially as we've seen so many people and businesses looking for ways round the rules

Yeah, tier 3 in the UK is similar enough to the midpoint of our restrictions here. We now at the top level for 6 weeks, aren’t shut down to the same extent as we were in April/May, but it’s noticeably quieter. Cases appear to have stabilised, but we’ll wait and see. As before, care homes are our Achilles heel. We had the pubs with food only thing in Dublin over the summer (never opened them fully since just before Paddy’s day), was reasonably well enforced and a ton of pubs that took the piss ended up with files sent to the DPP to prosecute them. One famous example didn’t get its license renewed. In general, I’ve found retail excellent here, great compliance with measures all round, and I never felt unsafe at any stage so it’s hard on non-essential retail when I don’t think they themselves are driving infections, it just contributes to more people travelling to shop and mixing, and really reducing contacts is all we have until the vaccines get here!

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1 minute ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

If Biden wins next Tuesday does that increase our chances of a deal with the EU? Given that a Biden government will not negotiate with the UK if we crash out without a deal and violate the GFA, that risks the UK having no trading relationship with either the USA or the EU which is unthinkable. A Trump win they could go for a no deal and then get a deal done with Trump, but if Biden wins then maybe we’d need to do a deal with the EU and then a deal with Biden. 

Can’t just deal with Trump though, has to get through ways and means (currently chaired by Irish American Richie Neal!)...

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23 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Then the spread must be down to stupidity and non compliance then. In the current climate of having to keep cases down it's very hard not to argue for more strict measures and enforcement. 

I know I keep saying it but I think the only way people in England will comply is if they're forced to. I don't want to see that but from a detached point of view the tier 3 thing won't work, especially as we've seen so many people and businesses looking for ways round the rules

I’ve spoken to some friends who live in areas that are now tier 3 and have been in some form of local lockdown since late July and the overwhelming feeling is that compliance will always be significantly lower with a local lockdown than a national one. To put it bluntly, people feel singled out when their area has been locked down and other haven’t, whereas when there’s a national lockdown there’s a much greater sense of society that means people are more likely to comply. 

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17 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

If Biden wins next Tuesday does that increase our chances of a deal with the EU? Given that a Biden government will not negotiate with the UK if we crash out without a deal and violate the GFA, that risks the UK having no trading relationship with either the USA or the EU which is unthinkable. A Trump win they could go for a no deal and then get a deal done with Trump, but if Biden wins then maybe we’d need to do a deal with the EU and then a deal with Biden. 

maybe...but a trade deal with US won't go anywhere near to repairing the damage of no deal with the EU.

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57 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Yeah, tier 3 in the UK is similar enough to the midpoint of our restrictions here. We now at the top level for 6 weeks, aren’t shut down to the same extent as we were in April/May, but it’s noticeably quieter. Cases appear to have stabilised, but we’ll wait and see. As before, care homes are our Achilles heel. We had the pubs with food only thing in Dublin over the summer (never opened them fully since just before Paddy’s day), was reasonably well enforced and a ton of pubs that took the piss ended up with files sent to the DPP to prosecute them. One famous example didn’t get its license renewed. In general, I’ve found retail excellent here, great compliance with measures all round, and I never felt unsafe at any stage so it’s hard on non-essential retail when I don’t think they themselves are driving infections, it just contributes to more people travelling to shop and mixing, and really reducing contacts is all we have until the vaccines get here!

There are reports in the media that our government are looking at a tier 4 if the current tier 3 restrictions don’t bring down infection rates. Which would be like the Leicester restrictions from back in June. 

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1 hour ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

I’ve spoken to some friends who live in areas that are now tier 3 and have been in some form of local lockdown since late July and the overwhelming feeling is that compliance will always be significantly lower with a local lockdown than a national one. To put it bluntly, people feel singled out when their area has been locked down and other haven’t, whereas when there’s a national lockdown there’s a much greater sense of society that means people are more likely to comply. 

I think it's partly this and also partly people knowing the rules better now and finding ways around them.

E.g. in Spring I know many people going out for only an hour a day when that was never the rule, or even the guidance. These people are now taking full advantage of the tier 2 meeting outdoors in restaurants or tier 3 meeting outdoors outside restaurants.

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On 10/24/2020 at 11:16 AM, eFestivals said:

My mum and me are in tier 1 at the mo. She lives alone so I guess that makes a support bubble?

Whatever, unless the pub cancel on me it's what I'll be doing. Not having my mum on her own.

The tier 3 thing is to move my son from Liverpool to Devon. It mixes households but there's no other way.

 

On 10/24/2020 at 9:38 AM, Zoo Music Girl said:

Aren't you allowed to eat in a pub with your support bubble?

Yep. I was just asking if Neil and his mam were in a support bubble, as if they lived a way away, she may have someone else doing that job and you can only have one.

On 10/24/2020 at 11:16 AM, eFestivals said:

My mum and me are in tier 1 at the mo. She lives alone so I guess that makes a support bubble?

Whatever, unless the pub cancel on me it's what I'll be doing. Not having my mum on her own.

The tier 3 thing is to move my son from Liverpool to Devon. It mixes households but there's no other way.

Sure they won't be cancelling dude, they'll be desperate for the Christmas trade. As for the house moving, you'd have a decent excuse for essential travel I'd say...

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21 minutes ago, Leyrulion said:

I think it's partly this and also partly people knowing the rules better now and finding ways around them.

E.g. in Spring I know many people going out for only an hour a day when that was never the rule, or even the guidance. These people are now taking full advantage of the tier 2 meeting outdoors in restaurants or tier 3 meeting outdoors outside restaurants.

Pretty sure tier 3 is no meeting anywhere...

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9 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

I would imagine that could be the tier 4 they are thinking of introducing.

Interesting that even in the Scottish tier 4 where restaurants and non-essential retail will be closed, you’re still allowed to meet in groups of six outdoors in parks etc. I think they’re really not too worried at all about outdoor transmission in small groups because these gatherings are permitted even in the regions that are very high prevalence. 

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