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When will this shit end?


Chrisp1986

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So not content with letting poor kids starve, the government is slashing laptop availability to schools by 80%....

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/oct/24/englands-schools-to-receive-fewer-laptops-for-distance-learning?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

This is the day after making it a legal requirement of schools to provided laptops to poor kids who are having to isolate under quarantine rules

The mind boggles of the thought process of this Government 😒

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Just now, shoptildrop said:

So not content with letting poor kids starve, the government is slashing laptop availability to schools by 80%....

https://www.theguardian.com/education/2020/oct/24/englands-schools-to-receive-fewer-laptops-for-distance-learning?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

This is the day after making it a legal requirement of schools to provided laptops to poor kids who are having to isolate under quarantine rules

The mind boggles of the thought process of this Government 😒

yeah, weird decisions. They must think doing u-turns due to public demand somehow helps them...maybe it does.

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41 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

 


Something fishy going on with these death numbers...

There's nothing fishy about the numbers, it takes time to filter through to the Gov.uk website. It's quite easy to find the information - https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

 

Then in daily deaths announced - 24th Oct it shows:

Screenshot 2020-10-24 at 17.50.43.png

Edited by Ozanne
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2 hours ago, Leyrulion said:

Nah, there would have been a military coup if Corbyn was PM. 

Definitely as he likely would've tried to lock down early to prevent deaths, but it would've been seen as proof of his Soviet style communist agenda, with a huge social media campaign to convince people of that 

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3 minutes ago, efcfanwirral said:

Definitely as he likely would've tried to lock down early to prevent deaths, but it would've been seen as proof of his Soviet style communist agenda, with a huge social media campaign to convince people of that 

yeah, I wonder. I mean Johnson's government were totally unprepared for this and the tories have been in government for ages...I'd imagine it would have been a nightmare for a new government ran by Corbyn's labour...and as you say I'm sure the press would have had a field day.

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3 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

This is my current prediction.

Using this app - https://www.270towin.com

I see this being an extremely close race. Arizona being the toss up state. If trump keeps Arizona he wins, if Biden wins Arizona he wins.

Totally open to hear if any of these predictions are way off.

132F54C1-5563-4FDB-A632-79643EC44C7A.jpeg

Have you looked at that site I shared the other day, it’ll give you some worthwhile information regarding the election?

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1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

That’s unnecessary. I’ve tried to help give you information you might find useful with insight into the US election. 

I did read but I’m taking things which are heavily weighted in Bidens favour with a gigantic pinch of salt at the moment.

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16 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

This is my current prediction.

Using this app - https://www.270towin.com

I see this being an extremely close race. Arizona being the toss up state. If trump keeps Arizona he wins, if Biden wins Arizona he wins.

Totally open to hear if any of these predictions are way off.

132F54C1-5563-4FDB-A632-79643EC44C7A.jpeg

Michigan is well outside the normal state polling error, Wisconsin is more likely to turn Red. 

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4 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

I did read but I’m taking things which are heavily weighted in Bidens favour with a gigantic pinch of salt at the moment.

I’ve spent time trying to explain the polls to you.

What about my comment on Rasmussen’s polls? The polling that leans to the right and Trump event tweets in support of them. (I doubt you’ll respond to this)

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14 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

This is my current prediction.

Using this app - https://www.270towin.com

I see this being an extremely close race. Arizona being the toss up state. If trump keeps Arizona he wins, if Biden wins Arizona he wins.

Totally open to hear if any of these predictions are way off.

132F54C1-5563-4FDB-A632-79643EC44C7A.jpeg

Biden has an 8 point lead in MI. He wins there, everything else is academic. His lead has been consistent there too.

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1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

I’ve spent time trying to explain the polls to you.

What about my comment on Rasmussen’s polls? The polling that leans to the right and Trump event tweets in support of them. (I doubt you’ll respond to this)

With all respect I don’t really see you debate much. You just throw a poll my way and say that this statistic means I’m wrong.

I’ve never claimed that my feelings are anything more than just how I feel the mood of America is going and what may influence votes when it comes to the polling.

Can I ask you a question, what if these polls you rely on a lot are wrong? What will your explanation be? Obviously it’s a hypothetical but I just want to know.

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7 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Biden has an 8 point lead in MI. He wins there, everything else is academic. His lead has been consistent there too.

Isn’t Michigan a bit of a weird leaning state at the moment for the democrats though? Hilary was so confident she was going to win the state that she didn’t visit it - and the mood of the state has been that it’s a safe Democrat seat... Watching Fahrenheit 11/9 it seems like there’s a distrust in the Democrat party that’s emerged in Michigan that wasn’t necessarily hilary’s fault, it was the party’s fault.

It seems too much to me like there is a “well Michigan just didn’t like Hilary” excuse. But I’m not sure that’s the real answer.

Edited by Matt42
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16 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Hilary was so confident she was going to win the state that she didn’t visit it

You're definitely thinking of Wisconsin. 

Wisconsin was one of the few states where the polls were actually just wrong and not incorrectly analysed by media ignoring margins of error.

Screenshot_20201024-190552.png

Edited by Leyrulion
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20 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

With all respect I don’t really see you debate much. You just throw a poll my way and say that this statistic means I’m wrong.

I’ve never claimed that my feelings are anything more than just how I feel the mood of America is going and what may influence votes when it comes to the polling.

Can I ask you a question, what if these polls you rely on a lot are wrong? What will your explanation be? Obviously it’s a hypothetical but I just want to know.

If the polls are wrong my explanation would be that the polls got it wrong.

I have engaged in debate, I’ve explained why it’s likely Biden will win on many occasions. I’ve offered links to data including averages of polls and also a poll that leans to the right that Trump himself has tweeted he supports. That pollster now shows Biden ahead in several key battleground states. Whereas you have come here with anecdotal evidence and feelings of what you think might happen. Which is fair enough but I take exception to you critiquing what I’ve done when I’ve actually provided data.

Now what do you think of this data from here - https://www.rasmussenreports.com

which shows Biden has small leads in Ohio and Arizona. Ohio has voted the way of the winner for decades. 
 

This following site shows the leaning of that pollster so you can’t say they favour Biden - https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/mediabiasfactcheck.com/rasmussen-reports/%3famp

 

This is a tweet from Trump showing support of that pollster as well:


So to summarise the right leaning pollster that Trump himself has supported currently shows Biden leading nationally by 3 points. It’s all this data plus the others I have previously mentioned that leads me to believe that Biden will win the election. Any thoughts on this data?

Edited by Ozanne
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32 minutes ago, Matt42 said:

Isn’t Michigan a bit of a weird leaning state at the moment for the democrats though? Hilary was so confident she was going to win the state that she didn’t visit it - and the mood of the state has been that it’s a safe Democrat seat... Watching Fahrenheit 11/9 it seems like there’s a distrust in the Democrat party that’s emerged in Michigan that wasn’t necessarily hilary’s fault, it was the party’s fault.

It seems too much to me like there is a “well Michigan just didn’t like Hilary” excuse. But I’m not sure that’s the real answer.

Biden has a willy, so he's ok in Michigan.

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2 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

If the polls are wrong my explanation would be that the polls got it wrong.

I have engaged in debate, I’ve explained why it’s likely Biden will win in many occasions. I’ve offered links to data including averages of polls and also a poll that leans to the right that Trump himself has tweeted he supports. That pollster now shows Biden ahead in several key battleground states. Whereas you have come here with anecdotal evidence and feelings of what you think might happen. Which is fair enough but I take exception to you critiquing what I’ve done when I’ve actually provided data.

Now what do you think of this data from here - https://www.rasmussenreports.com

which shows Biden has small leads in Ohio and Arizona. Ohio has voted the way of the winner for decades. 
 

This following site shows the leaning of that pollster so you can’t say they favour Biden - https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/mediabiasfactcheck.com/rasmussen-reports/%3famp

 

This is a tweet from Trump showing support of that pollster as well:


So to summarise the right leaning pollster that Trump himself has supported currently shows Biden leading nationally by 3 points. It’s all this data plus the others I have previously mentioned that leads me to believe that Biden will win the election. Any thoughts on this data?

All valid points and I take that on board but I’m sticking with what I think is going to happen. While I think all signs point to Biden winning the popular vote I’m still just very very very uncertain that many voters are slipping past the pollsters. Also a couple of issues that may be lingering on voters minds on their way to the booth and might swing.

- Lockdowns and the economy. Some will not want to vote for parties in favour of more shut downs.

- China

- Scepticism of the Democrat party

- First time voters.

- That democrat states have been hit pretty bad by the virus and riots.

Then throw all the Q anon nutcases in who typically haven’t voted before and  a lil bit of Russian interference.

I don’t mean to make this personal sorry if it comes off that way Ozanne, but the media and pollsters all going Biden makes me uneasy. Feels like influencing public opinion to go a certain way, and if modern history has told us anything - when that happens people tend to push back.

What could completely destroy my argument though is we don’t really know what effect COVID-19 will have on voters yet. We don’t know whether it makes me people want change, or someone ‘aggressive’ to be in charge. Trump might become quite enticing to those with lockdown/social distancing fatigue. Especially as the economy gets worse.

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9 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

Any thoughts on this data?

Yes. State level polling is still within the margin of error for battleground states (about 4-5% Vs a 3% margin for national polls).

Were a normal sized polling miss to happen places like Florida and Wisconsin would stay red. Equally if it went the other way places like Alaska and Missouri could go blue

So whilst a Trump victory is unlikely he still has a viable path to it.

 

 

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