When will this shit end?

[steviewevie]

4 minutes ago, The Dawg said:

I come here every morning in the hope that someone refers to a 'breakthrough' or a vaccine. Alas not today. I am trying to avoid the news as there doesn't seem to be an end in sight, but I live in hope. 

These little bits of routine keep me going though, so thanks all.

 

Hopefully that breakthrough will happen...but it may not be for a few months yet, and may be a slow process.

[Ozanne]

7 minutes ago, The Dawg said:

I come here every morning in the hope that someone refers to a 'breakthrough' or a vaccine. Alas not today. I am trying to avoid the news as there doesn't seem to be an end in sight, but I live in hope. 

These little bits of routine keep me going though, so thanks all.

 

When you come to the thread looking a vaccine breakthrough but don’t find anything.

[eFestivals]

10 hours ago, philipsteak said:

It would be more but Neil lost 50,000 posts

nah, I upgraded from excel to a proper database decades ago.

[steviewevie]

 

[Ryan1984]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

When you come to the thread looking a vaccine breakthrough but don’t find anything.

But who will be first to announce it? 

[steviewevie]

For Sweden fans

https://www.theguardian.com/world/audio/2020/oct/07/does-sweden-have-the-answer-to-living-with-covid-19

[eFestivals]

14 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Morning. I wonder what percentage of these cases in norhern cities are students?

saw something last night which said (in Manc, I think) it was about 4000 per 100,000 amongst students - which is around 8 times more than that city's average.

Edited October 7, 2020 by eFestivals

[eFestivals]

cases in Bristol have doubled in a week, from around 20 per 100k to over 40.

Students are just arriving back now. Will be an interesting one to watch.

 

[parsonjack]

31 minutes ago, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

If you imagine the pyramid field jam packed and 35 of the people in that crowd had covid - the chances of you coming into contact with them is really slim isn't it? (I know they would give it to others but this is just an example to conceptualise just how many people 100k is and just how slim the odds of coming into close contact with one of 35 people is)

That's in a confined space if you think about a normal day at the moment and how many people you come into prolonged contact with the chances of getting it with numbers like that aren't worth losing sleep over. 

....take into account that you also need to meet one or more of those 35 people during the 3 infectious days before they get symptoms and (hopefully) remove themselves from the mix and the chances drop even further.

[shoptildrop]

39 minutes ago, WestCountryGirl said:

It's the bbc page for checking cases in your local area. It also gives more detail about deaths etc.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

Yep looking peachy here too 

[shoptildrop]

11 minutes ago, eFestivals said:

saw something last night which said (in Manc, I think) it was about 4000 per 100,000 amongst students - which is around 8 times more than that city's average.

A few days ago they were stating a big student area Fallowfield as "covid soup" and is 745 per 100k in that area alone

[squirrelarmy]

32 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

Morning. I wonder what percentage of these cases in norhern cities are students?

There’s a fantastic interactive map to see exactly where cases are. 
 

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=47574f7a6e454dc6a42c5f6912ed7076

In Leeds you can clearly see the cases are based around the student areas. 
 

[Toilet Duck]

29 minutes ago, The Dawg said:

I come here every morning in the hope that someone refers to a 'breakthrough' or a vaccine. Alas not today. I am trying to avoid the news as there doesn't seem to be an end in sight, but I live in hope. 

These little bits of routine keep me going though, so thanks all.

 

Well, there is some good news...The FDA didn't allow Trump to bully them into approving a vaccine before the election, and have stuck to their guns on the minimum required safety data before they will grant EUA for a vaccine (this is good, no room for complacency on safety). This puts a timeline of end of November for that authorisation at the earliest. The other good news on that front is that both the FDA and the EMA are reviewing trial data on a rolling basis (rather than waiting for a scheduled interim analysis) and this moves things a fair bit quicker as well ( @stuartbert two hats , you were asking about this the other day...looks like they are indeed evaluating trial data already!). Entirely possible that 2-3 vaccines could have their evaluation complete in December (Oxford/Pfizer/Moderna). The big guns in the vaccine world are coming up on the rails too...Sanofi/GSK, J&J both now in phase 3 trials, with massive manufacturing capacity (1bn doses per annum). Huge amount has happened in the last 6 months, the next 6 months will have even more! I know it seems like this has gone on for ever, but it will end. 

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

13 minutes ago, parsonjack said:

....take into account that you also need to meet one or more of those 35 people during the 3 infectious days before they get symptoms and (hopefully) remove themselves from the mix and the chances drop even further.

Exactly. I'm not saying don't take it seriously, don't follow the rules etc... But if you are sensible, you can have some sort of life. There are some frustrations, like I aired myself over the weekend. 

I just think there needs to be some sort of context put around these numbers. It's 200 and something cases per 100k where I live or 1 in 1000. At the moment I probably stand within 5 metres of a handful of people a day and that includes collecting a child from school - the odds are stacked in my favour. 

If I catch it I catch it, it's not going to be through recklessness on my part, it could be due to a lapse of concentration or letting your guard down briefly but that's not recklessness. We have already lost most of a year to this shit, it's time to start living with it. 

It's Kublor Ross in action at a national scale. 

[Wellyboot]

274 here, great stuff 🙄

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

7 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

There’s a fantastic interactive map to see exactly where cases are. 
 

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=47574f7a6e454dc6a42c5f6912ed7076

In Leeds you can clearly see the cases are based around the student areas. 
 

Are the university's there testing students?

[Fuzzy Afro]

6 minutes ago, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

Exactly. I'm not saying don't take it seriously, don't follow the rules etc... But if you are sensible, you can have some sort of life. There are some frustrations, like I aired myself over the weekend. 

I just think there needs to be some sort of context put around these numbers. It's 200 and something cases per 100k where I live or 1 in 1000. At the moment I probably stand within 5 metres of a handful of people a day and that includes collecting a child from school - the odds are stacked in my favour. 

If I catch it I catch it, it's not going to be through recklessness on my part, it could be due to a lapse of concentration or letting your guard down briefly but that's not recklessness. We have already lost most of a year to this shit, it's time to start living with it. 

It's Kublor Ross in action at a national scale. 

You raise an interesting point, I wish they’d express the number of cases in a particular area as “1 in X” rather than “X per 100,000”

 

Gives a much better feel of the true risk of any particular area.

[JoeyT]

5 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Well, there is some good news...The FDA didn't allow Trump to bully them into approving a vaccine before the election, and have stuck to their guns on the minimum required safety data before they will grant EUA for a vaccine (this is good, no room for complacency on safety). This puts a timeline of end of November for that authorisation at the earliest. The other good news on that front is that both the FDA and the EMA are reviewing trial data on a rolling basis (rather than waiting for a scheduled interim analysis) and this moves things a fair bit quicker as well ( @stuartbert two hats , you were asking about this the other day...looks like they are indeed evaluating trial data already!). Entirely possible that 2-3 vaccines could have their evaluation complete in December (Oxford/Pfizer/Moderna). The big guns in the vaccine world are coming up on the rails too...Sanofi/GSK, J&J both now in phase 3 trials, with massive manufacturing capacity (1bn doses per annum). Huge amount has happened in the last 6 months, the next 6 months will have even more! I know it seems like this has gone on for ever, but it will end. 

So best case scenario is a vaccine is approved at the end of November, where does that leave us with getting back on the farm as per normal at the end of June?

Give me a % chance.

I've resigned myself to the fact there won't be a festival so if one does happen it's all the more sweeter. I'm not a huggy person but I'll be wrapping my arms around everyone of you if we're back in the isle of avalon in 2021.

[steviewevie]

11 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Well, there is some good news...The FDA didn't allow Trump to bully them into approving a vaccine before the election, and have stuck to their guns on the minimum required safety data before they will grant EUA for a vaccine (this is good, no room for complacency on safety). This puts a timeline of end of November for that authorisation at the earliest. The other good news on that front is that both the FDA and the EMA are reviewing trial data on a rolling basis (rather than waiting for a scheduled interim analysis) and this moves things a fair bit quicker as well ( @stuartbert two hats , you were asking about this the other day...looks like they are indeed evaluating trial data already!). Entirely possible that 2-3 vaccines could have their evaluation complete in December (Oxford/Pfizer/Moderna). The big guns in the vaccine world are coming up on the rails too...Sanofi/GSK, J&J both now in phase 3 trials, with massive manufacturing capacity (1bn doses per annum). Huge amount has happened in the last 6 months, the next 6 months will have even more! I know it seems like this has gone on for ever, but it will end. 

we'll have too many vaccines soon.

[steviewevie]

562 where I am. Am I the winner?

[Zoo Music Girl]

Is there PMQs today? Or is it off because of Tory conference?

[Fuzzy Afro]

2 minutes ago, Zoo Music Girl said:

Is there PMQs today? Or is it off because of Tory conference?

I think it’s on, no conference recess this year 

[Toilet Duck]

10 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

So best case scenario is a vaccine is approved at the end of November, where does that leave us with getting back on the farm as per normal at the end of June?

Give me a % chance.

I've resigned myself to the fact there won't be a festival so if one does happen it's all the more sweeter. I'm not a huggy person but I'll be wrapping my arms around everyone of you if we're back in the isle of avalon in 2021.

% chance would be a complete guess...I'm still confident though and think it's more likely to be on than not! (though not impossible that it's moved to a bit later in the summer). 

[Mr.Tease]

29 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Well, there is some good news...The FDA didn't allow Trump to bully them into approving a vaccine before the election, and have stuck to their guns on the minimum required safety data before they will grant EUA for a vaccine (this is good, no room for complacency on safety). This puts a timeline of end of November for that authorisation at the earliest. The other good news on that front is that both the FDA and the EMA are reviewing trial data on a rolling basis (rather than waiting for a scheduled interim analysis) and this moves things a fair bit quicker as well ( @stuartbert two hats , you were asking about this the other day...looks like they are indeed evaluating trial data already!). Entirely possible that 2-3 vaccines could have their evaluation complete in December (Oxford/Pfizer/Moderna). The big guns in the vaccine world are coming up on the rails too...Sanofi/GSK, J&J both now in phase 3 trials, with massive manufacturing capacity (1bn doses per annum). Huge amount has happened in the last 6 months, the next 6 months will have even more! I know it seems like this has gone on for ever, but it will end. 

That's what annoys me with the 'there's nothing we can do, we just have to learn to live with it' gang- why one earth decide that now when you've got three possible vaccine major trial results coming up in a few weeks or months, followed by three more

[mikegday]

18 minutes ago, steviewevie said:

562 where I am. Am I the winner?

535 for me, so I think so - though mine says it’s rising 100 a day! In a competition you really don’t want to win!!

that analogy of the pyramid field was good, but it’s also not about just coming into contact with it. It’s the knock on effect to services. I might be on the pyramid field having the best days of my life, but if the med tent starts to fill up then I’m in trouble should I need it for sunstroke (NFR NFC)