When will this shit end?

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, tigger123 said:

Exactly this 

Minus the school kids in the pubs  

[BobWillis]

4 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

There's been an increase in cases since they first opened. It's just been building and building since 4th July and adding in schools and unis into the mix has led to a case explosion.

Loads of things reopened at the same time as pubs and restaurants so I’m not sure why you’ve come to the conclusion that only the pubs are to blame. 

 

5% of all “outbreaks” are from pubs and restaurants. 

[Mr.Tease]

18 minutes ago, parsonjack said:

You don't need to be an expert to know that in the absence of either immunity or a vaccine there will be another 'wave' every time we lockdown then ease restrictions.  I struggle to understand why anyone thought this wouldn't happen after the first 'wave' with essentially nothing changing in between.

Yep, embarrassing how uninformed so many journalists are- there is genuinely no excuse to be that clueless 6 months into this when your job is to follow this and inform others!

There was another interview captioned on the bbc as an expert warning that a lockdown will not stop Covid-19 only delay it. THAT’S EXACTLY THE POINT! It’s to delay until we have a vaccine/better info or treatments. It’s mind numbing!

Edited September 27, 2020 by Mr.Tease

[squirrelarmy]

2 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Minus the school kids in the pubs  

You haven’t seen my local pubs

[FestivalJamie]

4 minutes ago, BobWillis said:

Loads of things reopened at the same time as pubs and restaurants so I’m not sure why you’ve come to the conclusion that only the pubs are to blame. 

 

5% of all “outbreaks” are from pubs and restaurants. 

Outbreaks isn’t the same thing as viral transmission. Outbreaks is only when there’s a significant amount of people getting infected in one location at one time. That’s not to say there’s not been a lot of viral transmission in pubs and restaurants, especially without masks and table service.

Edited September 27, 2020 by FestivalJamie

[El Matador]

13 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

Because what I can see of them people spent lots of time outside in beer gardens during the summer ... now people have become complacent and looking at many pubs covid secure is utter bollocks without any checkins to follow things up ... hopefully table service only will help ... 

Not my experience at all. Pretty much without exception, everywhere I've been has taken it seriously. Also if you close pubs, people don't stop socialising. You just move it from pubs to homes. 

I struggle to see why there's such a widespread belief that closing pubs is the answer. 

[Crazyfool01]

5 minutes ago, El Matador said:

Not my experience at all. Pretty much without exception, everywhere I've been has taken it seriously. Also if you close pubs, people don't stop socialising. You just move it from pubs to homes. 

I struggle to see why there's such a widespread belief that closing pubs is the answer. 

Have you been on a Wetherspoons? Or seen the scenes outside pubs in any major cities at 10pm  Numbers in homes will be restricted ... youngsters will still often live with parents ( that’s no slight on them by the way ) so it won’t be possible to get pissed and socialise to the same extent ... and people didn’t socialise to that extent when the last lockdown was in place did they ? Didn’t just think pubs are closed let’s have a party instead 

Edited September 27, 2020 by crazyfool1

[Simsy]

17 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

Outbreaks isn’t the same thing as viral transmission. Outbreaks is only when there’s a significant amount of people getting infected in one location at one time. That’s not to say there’s not been a lot of viral transmission in pubs and restaurants, especially without masks and table service.

Exactly. If I catch covid in the pub, then pass it on to my husband at home, my mum at her house, some strangers on the bus & a colleague at work, that won't be counted as an "outbreak" at a pub, even though all those people wouldn't have caught it if I hadn't been in the pub.

[Crazyfool01]

20 minutes ago, BobWillis said:

Loads of things reopened at the same time as pubs and restaurants so I’m not sure why you’ve come to the conclusion that only the pubs are to blame. 

 

5% of all “outbreaks” are from pubs and restaurants. 

Wasn’t that survey from the pub industry ? Alcohol and pubs are a luxury to me when compared with people’s lives ... as posted earlier they need support though ... it needs to be balanced with something else remaining shut or we tip the balance in the infections favour as has happened ... 1 month or so ago there was talk about shutting the pubs to allow schools to go back that seems to have disappeared but now we have infections rising ... so what do we shut instead to prevent a full lockdown needed ? That 5% might be crucial if that’s the true figure 

[Fuzzy Afro]

1 hour ago, steviewevie said:

 

Can we not at least finish the second wave before we start discussing the possibility of a third? 😂

[Fuzzy Afro]

Well the good news is I think the doubling time has slowed down, it’s definitely > 7 days now. Bad news is there is still a doubling time though. R > 1. 

[Toilet Duck]

4 minutes ago, Simsy said:

Exactly. If I catch covid in the pub, then pass it on to my husband at home, my mum at her house, some strangers on the bus & a colleague at work, that won't be counted as an "outbreak" at a pub, even though all those people wouldn't have caught it if I hadn't been in the pub.

Yep, this is exactly what the CDC found when they started interviewing positive cases. They or somebody close to them was much more likely to have eaten out or been to the pub in the last week. Our own CMO described classification of clusters exactly as you have described it above. “Household” clusters don’t originate in the household!

[BobWillis]

26 minutes ago, FestivalJamie said:

Outbreaks isn’t the same thing as viral transmission. Outbreaks is only when there’s a significant amount of people getting infected in one location at one time. That’s not to say there’s not been a lot of viral transmission in pubs and restaurants, especially without masks and table service.

An outbreak is more than one. 
If one person has given it to one other person, it’s likely they knew that person and if not in a pub would have met them elsewhere and still given them the virus. 

[Crazyfool01]

3 minutes ago, BobWillis said:

An outbreak is more than one. 
If one person has given it to one other person, it’s likely they knew that person and if not in a pub would have met them elsewhere and still given them the virus. 

I don’t know about you but a pub is a completely different trip out for me ? In a pub you get how many people ? In a home you get far fewer so interacting with people you don’t know is lower ... I have a friend who I think interacts far to much with people so my interaction with him is low and outside at a distance ... in a pub I can’t make any judgement what so ever ... see toilet ducks post above too 

[Ozanne]

1 hour ago, parsonjack said:

5693 new cases......down on last couple of days but no testing figures so positivity rating not yet known.

It’s down from the last 2 days but up from 3,899 compared to this time last week. 

[Fuzzy Afro]

9 minutes ago, Ozanne said:

It’s down from the last 2 days but up from 3,899 compared to this time last week. 

46% up in a week compared to the expected doubling though 

[Copperface]

Close family at Uni in Liverpool.

This sounds ominous:

 

https://twitter.com/DPH_MAshton/status/1310249171425865731?s=20

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

31 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

Yep, this is exactly what the CDC found when they started interviewing positive cases. They or somebody close to them was much more likely to have eaten out or been to the pub in the last week. Our own CMO described classification of clusters exactly as you have described it above. “Household” clusters don’t originate in the household!

I'm sure the pub wasn't the only place they went in the 7 days preceding a positive test though... 

[stuartbert two hats]

6 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

46% up in a week compared to the expected doubling though 

And we wouldn't expect the measures to have started to kick in until the last couple of days.

Although to be fair, I don't think anyone has been able to find evidence that our doubling rate was ever as fast as every 7 days during this wave.

[Crazyfool01]

I don’t get what people are finding so hard ... cut down interactions with others the pub is an interaction with an added danger of alcohol and many strangers  ... which also causes the nhs to be overrun at times ... I don’t want them closed as much as other people but we have to do something ... 

[ace56blaa]

8 minutes ago, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

I'm sure the pub wasn't the only place they went in the 7 days preceding a positive test though... 

the point people are making is it definitely has an effect and at the end of the day if you can shut something to lessen the effect, so we can keep school open. It would be pubs.

Also even if the person went to other places that week the pub is most likely to be  more relaxed about measures and even if it's not, when your drunk you let your guard down and more likely to not social distance. Even if it's enforced in the pub, getting drunk a the pub is more likely to lead to socializing further and spreading the virus. - just look at the scenes on the soho streets last night

Also I think with the rule of six and most likely an up coming ban of household mixing, it would be frustrating to let people still go to the pub to pay for beer and mix and then I wouldn't be allowed to go on a walk with a friend for example. 

Also Toilet Duck knows his stuff. 

Edited September 27, 2020 by ace56blaa

[FestivalJamie]

9 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

And we wouldn't expect the measures to have started to kick in until the last couple of days.

Hmmm whilst rule of 6 might do something to reduce viral transmissions, I can't see the curfew having any positive effects. I imagine the rate of doubling sits at 8-9 days anyway and has been pretty consistent, we have just seen fluctuations due to the testing backlog.

[Toilet Duck]

19 minutes ago, RobertProsineckisLighter said:

I'm sure the pub wasn't the only place they went in the 7 days preceding a positive test though... 

No, of course not. Restaurants and other places where people congregate indoors too. The main difference with workplaces is that it’s just a bit more difficult to maintain social distancing, masks are off to eat and drink and until we know for sure what role airborne transmission plays, I’d consider them high risk (I want pubs, gigs, clubs etc open again as much as anyone btw)...

edit: @stuartbert two hats posted the comparison between NYC and Madrid previously...it’s pretty striking. Indoor dining restarts in NYC this week...let’s see how it goes.

Edited September 27, 2020 by Toilet Duck

[zahidf]

Too sexy for a mask

 

[RobertProsineckisLighter]

5 minutes ago, Toilet Duck said:

No, of course not. Restaurants and other places where people congregate indoors too. The main difference with workplaces is that it’s just a bit more difficult to maintain social distancing, masks are off to eat and drink and until we know for sure what role airborne transmission plays, I’d consider them high risk (I want pubs, gigs, clubs etc open again as much as anyone btw)...

I completely agree - but if you close pubs and restaurants something else moves to top of the list and you then have calls to close them to and that can't carry on forever. That's just a one way ticket back to lockdown.

Closing pubs and other hospitality will just force people to socialise elsewhere and in the winter in the UK that's going to be people's homes and to me that's more risky as it's an unregulated place.