When will this shit end?

[stuartbert two hats]

3 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

Yeah but locking down too early means the can doesn’t need to be kicked yet.

 

In the absence of a vaccine, herd immunity is the only exit strategy, therefore the optimum strategy is to lock down as late as possible to allow as many cases as you can without overwhelming the NHS. Lockdown early and you end up taking much longer to achieve that herd immunity. 
 

Remember that the vast majority of us will get covid-19 at some point so getting it now is better than getting it later. 

Will we?  With a vaccine potentially coming in the next three months, I don't think that's a reasonable assumption at all. But the circuit breaker isn't for a few weeks yet and remember that there's a lag between infection and ICU admission, so it might not be all that bad a time. 

Personally I quite like the idea of locking down a bit sooner to minimise the number of people who get it.

[Mr.Tease]

26 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

It's absolutely facial to punish those in areas with such low numbers of infections.

How do you get those people on board?

"You guys have done really well on keeping infections down but we're slapping a 2 week lockdown on you because things are out of control elsewhere"

Doesn't seem right to me and there will definitely be more "rule" flouting than previously.

I'll happily take the hit if it helps ensure people in badly hit areas understand and follow the rules and saves lives, why wouldn't you? 

Edited September 25, 2020 by Mr.Tease

[Fuzzy Afro]

1 minute ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Will we?  With a vaccine potentially coming in the next three months, I don't think that's a reasonable assumption at all. But the circuit breaker isn't for a few weeks yet and remember that there's a lag between infection and ICU admission, so it might not be all that bad a time. 

Personally I quite like the idea of locking down a bit sooner to minimise the number of people who get it.

It doesn’t go away until we’ve all had it, in the absence of a vaccine. Locking down early prolongs the crisis. 

[PolygonWindow]

2 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Will we?  With a vaccine potentially coming in the next three months, I don't think that's a reasonable assumption at all. But the circuit breaker isn't for a few weeks yet and remember that there's a lag between infection and ICU admission, so it might not be all that bad a time. 

Personally I quite like the idea of locking down a bit sooner to minimise the number of people who get it.

would you mind elaborating on the 3 month vaccine thing? my reg news source is Twitter and I do recall seeing this but as most things on Twitter I discarded it as bullshit.

is this common knowledge, am I way behind, does this actually have legs?

[stuartbert two hats]

6 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

It doesn’t go away until we’ve all had it, in the absence of a vaccine. Locking down early prolongs the crisis. 

Multiple new vaccines go into phase three trials every week.  We will get one.

[Ozanne]

6 minutes ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Will we?  With a vaccine potentially coming in the next three months, I don't think that's a reasonable assumption at all. But the circuit breaker isn't for a few weeks yet and remember that there's a lag between infection and ICU admission, so it might not be all that bad a time. 

Personally I quite like the idea of locking down a bit sooner to minimise the number of people who get it.

I have to agree. If a vaccine is coming in the Spring then we only have to have restrictions in place for another 6 months or so. If the vaccine is coming in that time frame then the lives a lockdown saves are more than worth giving up a bit of freedom for the winter. If not then at that stage as a society we can decide if we should live with it or keep restrictions going as it will be more endemic by then. 

[stuartbert two hats]

3 minutes ago, PolygonWindow said:

would you mind elaborating on the 3 month vaccine thing? my reg news source is Twitter and I do recall seeing this but as most things on Twitter I discarded it as bullshit.

is this common knowledge, am I way behind, does this actually have legs?

Ahh, I dunno.  A while ago I was believing AstraZeneca when they said they might have the trials finished by September, but I do think it has legs, although it's probably going to be a very limited rollout this side of Christmas.  But is does look very likely IMHO that we'll have at least one being rolled out in the next six months.

[Crazyfool01]

6 minutes ago, Fuzzy Afro said:

It doesn’t go away until we’ve all had it, in the absence of a vaccine. Locking down early prolongs the crisis. 

In the absence of a vaccine ... have you been reading Toilet Ducks posts about the number of vaccines coming through and the number in stage 3 trials ... it’s easy to see all the negative stuff I think that’s where we naturally defer to as humans but I think it’s worth holding on and saving as many lives as we can at the moment especially as we are not looking like the herd immunity will be necessary ... 

[PolygonWindow]

1 minute ago, stuartbert two hats said:

Ahh, I dunno.  A while ago I was believing AstraZeneca when they said they might have the trials finished by September, but I do think it has legs, although it's probably going to be a very limited rollout this side of Christmas.  But is does look very likely IMHO that we'll have at least one being rolled out in the next six months.

thank you, fingers crossed. Something is better than nothing!

[Chawk]

I've just moved to Norway and it's pretty strange with no masks and not having to be pacman in the shops. 

[Crazyfool01]

25 minutes ago, squirrelarmy said:

Just seen this on my fb feed. 
 

 

If cases drop in Leeds while I’m hiding indoors I’ll accept responsibility 😂

I suppose some might say it’s worth stockpiling Charlie 

[DeanoL]

31 minutes ago, JoeyT said:

It's absolutely facial to punish those in areas with such low numbers of infections.

How do you get those people on board?

"You guys have done really well on keeping infections down but we're slapping a 2 week lockdown on you because things are out of control elsewhere"

Doesn't seem right to me and there will definitely be more "rule" flouting than previously.

Firstly, lockdown is not a "punishment" - it's an attempt to contain a deadly disease so it doesn't overwhelm the NHS and cause people to start dying in the streets. Even viewing it from the mindset that "lockdown=punishment" is a bad way to start thinking about things.

Secondly there's no evidence I've seen to show that rules compliance is higher in these areas, to support the argument that anyone has "done well" - it seems just as likely that different working and social patterns, different density of population and so on have led to fewer cases in this area. And also, y'know, it's a virus that spreads fairly randomly, and it could just be luck. If it's not the latter, we could do with figuring out what it is that has kept figures down in that area.

Lastly, the virus is not eradicated in these areas. Or even suppressed. It's still increasing. It's not increasing as much as in some other areas, but numbers are still going up. Without further intervention, numbers will continue to go up. So some sort of more aggressive lockdown will be needed at some point, even in areas that "doing well". It's easier to it on a nationwide level, as it makes things easier to police, and easier to message on

[Ozanne]

UK figures for 25th September, deaths don't include figures from Scotland.

[zahidf]

Tory thinking 

 

[xxialac]

8 minutes ago, Chawk said:

I've just moved to Norway and it's pretty strange with no masks and not having to be pacman in the shops. 

I've just returned to the UK from Italy and Spain and it's pretty strange with barely any masks and not having to be pacman in the shops.

[Crazyfool01]

I’m quite happy to survive thanks ... I see it as a rest before a bloody big party ...  

[gigpusher]

1 minute ago, Ozanne said:

UK figures for 25th September, deaths don't include figures from Scotland.

Exactly it seems the deaths seem to be fairly well contained albeit starting to creep up slightly. I do think we need to balance our approach to this. I know some people think caring about the economy is the worst thing in the world and that peoples lives should be prized above all else but the reality is that the economy contributes to health. Austerity has killed more people than Covid and if we end up in a major global recession there is every chance that people will effectively be dying from the effects of covid measures for decades. 

 

[Crazyfool01]

1 minute ago, xxialac said:

I've just returned to the UK from Italy and Spain and it's pretty strange with barely any masks and not having to be pacman in the shops.

99.8 % compliance today I’d say ... give or take a bit ... facemasks handed out on the door and nearly all staff wearing them ... it is amazing the variability though ... is this something the south west are doing well I wonder ?! 

[Chawk]

5 minutes ago, xxialac said:

I've just returned to the UK from Italy and Spain and it's pretty strange with barely any masks and not having to be pacman in the shops.

Oh really? has that changed in the last few weeks? When I left the Midlands people were pretty masked up. I'd say in Norway, at least where I'm living in one of the biggest cities, less than 5% are wearing masks 

Edited September 25, 2020 by Chawk

[FestivalJamie]

2 minutes ago, crazyfool1 said:

99.8 % compliance today I’d say ... give or take a bit ... facemasks handed out on the door and nearly all staff wearing them ... it is amazing the variability though ... is this something the south west are doing well I wonder ?! 

I went to Asda and Tesco today. Asda was REALLY good for staff and customers wearing them. Tesco was horrendous, 4 different customers with masks hanging off their face to make phone calls, staff with masks below chin etc- was uncomfortable.

Asda are really on the ball with masks now compared to some other supermarkets. They had a Marshall handing out masks at the door too (I think you work at Asda so this is great news!!!)

[steviewevie]

42 minutes ago, gigpusher said:

I was going to say so in answer to the original thread question it seems the answer is never. 

 

I don't get to read this thread religiously so don't know if it has been asked and answered but it seems we are getting lots more cases but far fewer deaths. Are we getting better at treating or is the virus becoming less potent (probably not the scientific way of describing it) 

Just wondering if we can manage it better now are the lockdowns etc as necessary because I personally know 3 people who have had relatives die from Covid but about 15 who have died as a result of cancers that were diagnosed relatively recently (ie sincle lockdown), I know of a few people who have died of heart attacks and even 2 cases of sadly quite young people who have commit suicide. Surely it gets to the stage where you have to balance risk to life from covid vs risk to life from other issues created by covid. One of my friends lost her Mum and Uncle within 4 weeks of each other to cancer that were diagnosed since lockdown. Both in their late 50's and early 60's. Both lost so quickly because of delays accessing other treatments because of COVID. Maybe they both would still have died but perhaps they would have had a few more precious years if it weren't for all the restrictions. 

one of the main differences between now and spring is testing. Back then we mostly were only testing those coming into hospital with symptoms. Now we are testing loads...although there are obviously issues with tests at the moment. So, can't really compare the numbers of cases.

Back in the sping they just kept much of NHS free for covid patients which led to problems like you saw, this time they don't want to do that...so we're going to have covid19+flu+all the other stuff, which is why they're putting restrictions in now to try and stop covid19 hospitalisations getting too high.

[Crazyfool01]

Just now, FestivalJamie said:

I went to Asda and Tesco today. Asda was REALLY good for staff and customers wearing them. Tesco was horrendous, 4 different customers with masks hanging off their face to make phone calls, staff with masks below chin etc- was uncomfortable.

Asda are really on the ball with masks now compared to some other supermarkets. They had a Marshall handing out masks at the door too (I think you work at Asda so this is great news!!!)

Industry leading ... never expected to be saying that ... but the good thing is that others have to follow the example or they start losing custom ... we weren’t seen as great ... but it’s a really competitive market and going into what’s called the golden quarter for retail it’s very much needed to retain customers and attract new ones ... 

[xxialac]

8 minutes ago, Chawk said:

Oh really? has that changed in the last few weeks? When I left the Midlands people were pretty masked up. I'd say in Norway, at least where I'm living in one of the biggest cities, less than 5% are wearing masks 

I can't speak for elsewhere I'm afraid but East London is really bad. 

50% masks in shops.

Contrast that with near 100% masks on the continent - and that's in the streets too.

[gigpusher]

Just now, steviewevie said:

one of the main differences between now and spring is testing. Back then we mostly were only testing those coming into hospital with symptoms. Now we are testing loads...although there are obviously issues with tests at the moment. So, can't really compare the numbers of cases.

Back in the sping they just kept much of NHS free for covid patients which led to problems like you saw, this time they don't want to do that...so we're going to have covid19+flu+all the other stuff, which is why they're putting restrictions in now to try and stop covid19 hospitalisations getting too high.

Exactly I think for me whether people have it or not isn't as much of an issue as whether people are suffering really badly with it/dying from it. If 50000 people lose their sense of taste for a week or have a bit of an annoying cough I don't really think that merits any change in our behaviour whereas people in ICU and people dying clearly does. 

I think that's why a lot of the stats we see feel meaningless. I want to know really how many people still need hospitalisation, is the NHS overwhelmed with cases. Don't get me wrong I have complied absolutely with every measure so far and to be honest gone beyond. I haven't met up with any friends or family this year (apart from one socially distanced walk with my brother in law and family) but that is why I would like the truth about how necessary it is. It has definitely impacted on my health and mental health to be robbed of all the fun activities in my life. I know I haven't suffered as much as many others have. I just think it is time to think is the sacrifice we are making on balance worthwhile. If it is then yes no matter how hard we should definitely keep going but I just want to be sure it is. The cynic in me feels a lot of it could be a distraction from Brexit now. Not allowed to go out and march against the choices the government is making etc. 

[steviewevie]

5 minutes ago, gigpusher said:

Exactly I think for me whether people have it or not isn't as much of an issue as whether people are suffering really badly with it/dying from it. If 50000 people lose their sense of taste for a week or have a bit of an annoying cough I don't really think that merits any change in our behaviour whereas people in ICU and people dying clearly does. 

I think that's why a lot of the stats we see feel meaningless. I want to know really how many people still need hospitalisation, is the NHS overwhelmed with cases. Don't get me wrong I have complied absolutely with every measure so far and to be honest gone beyond. I haven't met up with any friends or family this year (apart from one socially distanced walk with my brother in law and family) but that is why I would like the truth about how necessary it is. It has definitely impacted on my health and mental health to be robbed of all the fun activities in my life. I know I haven't suffered as much as many others have. I just think it is time to think is the sacrifice we are making on balance worthwhile. If it is then yes no matter how hard we should definitely keep going but I just want to be sure it is. The cynic in me feels a lot of it could be a distraction from Brexit now. Not allowed to go out and march against the choices the government is making etc. 

yeah, should really look at hospitalisation numbers if comparing with spring...but test positive case numbers are useful to see where outbreaks are occuring and the direction we are going in. If only we had that information back in February/March.

Edited September 25, 2020 by steviewevie